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Johansson traded to NJD for 2nd and 3rd rd picks in 2018

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07-12-2017, 01:38 PM
  #326
Jags
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Originally Posted by Hivemind View Post
He is an elite penalty killer.
Borderline. His faceoff struggles make his a liability on defensive faceoffs, which are most power play faceoffs. He's absolutely elite beyond that, but it's odd to have an elite PKer who you have to deploy very specifically or risk giving up immediate chances against.

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07-12-2017, 01:43 PM
  #327
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Faceoffs are overblown. The difference between a 45% FO winrate and a 55% FO winrate is 1 faceoff per game for a player like Eller. And despite his poor defensize zone faceoff numbers, Eller was still an above average player in terms of Net Shots Post-Faceoff in the DZ last season.

While you want a couple faceoff specialists on your team, there is no need to overpay for that ability in each of your centers.

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07-12-2017, 06:10 PM
  #328
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I have seen coaches thinking that faceoffs matter in almost every game I have ever watched. From a RH guy in to take a right side draw, to Oshie pitch hitting for Nicky or Kuzy, to the sheer employment of guys like Boyd Gordon and Jay Beagle - it matters to those in the game. We have all seen that extra faceoff guy out for if a guy gets tossed.

Early in the toronto series we were getting killed in the dot and it was swinging play in TOs favor. You could see it rather easily, actually. I think it had a hand in some losses.

Bigger than the 1 faceoff lost that makes a guy good or not, is the individual game itself. It doesn't matter what a guy did all year if he gets killed in game 7 after getting killed all year, and the coach keeps putting him out for key draws. Many times a game, you can see a player all but concede a faceoff. I want to know the key draw stats.

I will concede that in the modern era when a mistake is how a goal is scored, faceoffs and every play in general, has never been less meaningful in how it relates to goals being scored.


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07-12-2017, 06:24 PM
  #329
Ridley Simon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jags View Post
Borderline. His faceoff struggles make his a liability on defensive faceoffs, which are most power play faceoffs. He's absolutely elite beyond that, but it's odd to have an elite PKer who you have to deploy very specifically or risk giving up immediate chances against.
If Eller was as good as he is defensively and on the PK, and scored 40pts a year as people wanted.....he'd be worth 6m a season (Jordan Staal) and we wouldn't afford him or have traded for him

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07-12-2017, 06:32 PM
  #330
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I don't think many people actually consider Jordan Staal to be a $6M player. Especially after Hanzal took home "only" $4.75M as a UFA this year.

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07-12-2017, 06:35 PM
  #331
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Hanzal is injured all the time.

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07-12-2017, 06:57 PM
  #332
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So is Tom Wilson and most people think he's way overpaid at 2m AAV.
So is Daniel Winnik and he has been over a longer period.

Eller PKed more last year than any season and he's always had strong GA/60 PK rates but for me when I think elite PKer it's someone that has a more prominent role and has done it over a longer period. He's always been strong but it's a bit early to suggest he's elite. He did also show signs of being a very strong 3C from a possession standpoint but, again, I'd wait for another season at least to conclude whether that's to be expected. Those were two areas where he had career-best performance but even that I'm not sure is worth his contract to them beyond next season given other commitments. He'll also be 29 before his next contract so how much term is required?

For me Johansson is definitely a LW and a guy that ideally adds more of a two-way playmaking winger element 5-on-5. With the right linemates he can help make a line go by virtue of being responsible defensively and through the neutral zone. Between Zajac/Henrique/Zacha/Boyle and then Hischier & McLeod on the way there's no need for him to play center.

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07-12-2017, 07:09 PM
  #333
Jags
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hivemind View Post
Faceoffs are overblown. The difference between a 45% FO winrate and a 55% FO winrate is 1 faceoff per game for a player like Eller. And despite his poor defensize zone faceoff numbers, Eller was still an above average player in terms of Net Shots Post-Faceoff in the DZ last season.

While you want a couple faceoff specialists on your team, there is no need to overpay for that ability in each of your centers.
I don't entirely disagree, but there's no question that it affects Eller's deployments. For a guy with the PK numbers he has to not be a top minute-getter in PK situations is very telling. We leaned on him here and faceoffs were definitely an issue, but he was routinely playing way fewer minutes in Montreal than several other forwards who weren't nearly as strong as him defensively.

Lost defensive faceoffs on the power play lead directly to chances against. Eller is at 38.9% for us in shorthanded faceoffs. 27.3% in the postseason. It has affected his deployments and overall PK time dramatically over the years and puts his "elite" status in question.

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