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Will the Jets be competitive with the Oilers and Leafs?

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Old
07-13-2017, 03:21 PM
  #151
Yukon Joe
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Originally Posted by DowntownBooster View Post
It was only a couple of years ago that the cover of The Hockey News forecast the Winnipeg Jets as Stanley Cup champions in 2019. Now with Connor McDavid in Edmonton and Auston Matthews in Toronto, all talk is about them. I'm still disappointed how those teams fortunes turned around so fast and how it's had such an impact with the media which now seems to only focus on them. The Jets seemed to have fallen off the radar altogether. I'm really hoping that Winnipeg will have a banner year in 2017-18 so that we'll be part of the discussion with Edmonton and Toronto.
It's hard to say that Edmonton 'turned their fortune around so fast' after a deacde out of the playoffs. Theres has been a long, hard climb.

And Toronto... I'm not convinced. They barely squeaked into the playoffs. They're making a few questionable off-season moves. I think they'll be hard-pressed to make it back into the playoffs next season.

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07-13-2017, 04:18 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Yukon Joe View Post
It's hard to say that Edmonton 'turned their fortune around so fast' after a deacde out of the playoffs. Theres has been a long, hard climb.

And Toronto... I'm not convinced. They barely squeaked into the playoffs. They're making a few questionable off-season moves. I think they'll be hard-pressed to make it back into the playoffs next season.
I think Toronto's top flight coaching will have them in regularly. I'm not predicting a downward trend for the Leafs anytime soon.



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07-13-2017, 06:37 PM
  #153
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I think both the Oilers and Leafs already benefit from a virtuous circle whereby strong management and coaching lead them towards regular playoff contention and make it easier to sign and retain top talent, both in-house developed and FA. I think it's pretty clear by now that any Leafs or Oilers "taxes" have diminished or vanished since they became real or perceived "winners."

The Jets need to get there soon or they will have even more catching up to do over the next few years, IMO. Talent and a strong prospect pool isn't enough.

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07-18-2017, 06:01 AM
  #154
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Adding a 3C, additional scoring line puts the Jets over the top. If they can bump Lowry down to the 4th....even Maurice can't screw it up.
We've got 6-8 guys that can play in the bottom 6, but none of the potential combinations stand out if Roslovic isn't ready for the 3C role.
Lowry is a perfect 3C, but Jets simply cannot compete with 30th best goaltending in the league, as was the case last season. And unfortunately, highly likely will be in the next season as well. I have some hopes on Mason and even on Helle, but last season Helle & Co. were simply bad some 80% of their games.

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07-18-2017, 03:25 PM
  #155
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This thread title is wrong. It should ask if the Leafs and Oilers will be competitive with the Jets. Or did I wander onto the Leafs board by mistake?

Every time I see this thread's title it gets up my nose.

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07-18-2017, 03:33 PM
  #156
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Would you switch rosters with the Leafs/Oilers?

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07-18-2017, 03:58 PM
  #157
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Would you switch rosters with the Leafs/Oilers?
There is lots I don't like about how the Oilers are built, but I would do it just because of that McDavid kid.

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07-18-2017, 04:18 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
This thread title is wrong. It should ask if the Leafs and Oilers will be competitive with the Jets. Or did I wander onto the Leafs board by mistake?

Every time I see this thread's title it gets up my nose.
Definitely not the Leafs board. The thread's title was simply based on how the national media seems to focus on the Oilers and Leafs. It was only a few years prior that the Jets were viewed favorably with all our prospects by the same media. I was wondering if those teams had suddenly become better than the Jets now that each of them has a cornerstone piece in place -- Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Auston Matthews for Toronto. I'm not doubting that the Jets will be a competitive team but I do wonder if McDavid is going to have the same Gretzky-like influence on the Oilers that will give them the edge over the Jets like we witnessed in the 1980s and if Matthews has the ability to do the same for the Leafs (with the coaching of Mike Babcock). Just wanted to get some opinions on how others felt about it that's all.


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07-18-2017, 04:21 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Halberdier View Post
Lowry is a perfect 3C


With Lowry as the 3C no one in the bottom 6 was able to crack 30 points last season. He doesn't create enough for his wingers.

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07-18-2017, 04:51 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by DowntownBooster View Post
Definitely not the Leafs board. The thread's title was simply based on how the national media seems to focus on the Oilers and Leafs. It was only a few years prior that the Jets were viewed favorably with all our prospects by the same media. I was wondering if those teams had suddenly become better than the Jets now that each of them has a cornerstone piece in place -- Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Auston Matthews for Toronto. I'm not doubting that the Jets will be a competitive team but I do wonder if McDavid is going to have the same Gretzky-like influence on the Oilers that will give them the edge over the Jets like we witnessed in the 1980s and if Matthews has the ability to do the same for the Leafs (with the coaching of Mike Babcock). Just wanted to get some opinions on how others felt about it that's all.


I don't think so. As good as McDavid is (yes he's insanely good), this isn't the same style hockey that was played in the 80s and the Cap era brings in other factors that weren't present then.

The Jets have massive potential. They just need to break out. They need some key pieces to put them over the edge.

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07-18-2017, 05:24 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by DowntownBooster View Post
Definitely not the Leafs board. The thread's title was simply based on how the national media seems to focus on the Oilers and Leafs. It was only a few years prior that the Jets were viewed favorably with all our prospects by the same media. I was wondering if those teams had suddenly become better than the Jets now that each of them has a cornerstone piece in place -- Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Auston Matthews for Toronto. I'm not doubting that the Jets will be a competitive team but I do wonder if McDavid is going to have the same Gretzky-like influence on the Oilers that will give them the edge over the Jets like we witnessed in the 1980s and if Matthews has the ability to do the same for the Leafs (with the coaching of Mike Babcock). Just wanted to get some opinions on how others felt about it that's all.

Oh my god I hope not. Having gone through that once is enough. That series where the Oilers came back from 3-1 games in the playoffs nearly killed me.
As good as the Jets were back then, I think we have a better, more all round talented team now. Just need to put it all together.
The Oilers today don't have nearly as much talent as those 80's teams.

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07-18-2017, 05:49 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by DowntownBooster View Post
Definitely not the Leafs board. The thread's title was simply based on how the national media seems to focus on the Oilers and Leafs. It was only a few years prior that the Jets were viewed favorably with all our prospects by the same media. I was wondering if those teams had suddenly become better than the Jets now that each of them has a cornerstone piece in place -- Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Auston Matthews for Toronto. I'm not doubting that the Jets will be a competitive team but I do wonder if McDavid is going to have the same Gretzky-like influence on the Oilers that will give them the edge over the Jets like we witnessed in the 1980s and if Matthews has the ability to do the same for the Leafs (with the coaching of Mike Babcock). Just wanted to get some opinions on how others felt about it that's all.

I can't see it, Gretz was not a one trick pony he had Kurri, Mess, Anderson, and Coffey so there were really 5 members of their core that were all world. McDavid is amazing but after that they are just another hockey team. The Cap era will not allow that kind of asset stacking anymore and most teams won't dominate for a decade like the 80's Oil. Hell Sid and Gino were amazing but until they got a world class goalie they were both in danger of being underachievers.

The margins are razor thin now and we will be in the mix soon.

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07-18-2017, 06:29 PM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
This thread title is wrong. It should ask if the Leafs and Oilers will be competitive with the Jets. Or did I wander onto the Leafs board by mistake?

Every time I see this thread's title it gets up my nose.
Gotta agree.

The Jets played rather well in the second half of the season with a record in top 10 for all of the last third.

From January 1st-end of regular season, 6 Jets placed in the top 60 for points among forward. Easy math to see on average at best the Jets should only have 2 such players in this elite grouping.

6th-49pts Scheifele
8th-45pts Wheeler
23th-37pts Perreault
36th-35pts Little
51st-33pts Laine
51st-33pts-Ehlers

Under the same time frame for defensemen, whereas most teams would have 1 defensemen in the top 30, the Jets placed 2 in the top 20 for points.

10th-29pts Byfuglien
20th-23pts Trouba

Also relevant that the Jets from March 19th to seasons end had the best record in the NHL going 9-2-0 over their final 11 games despite being decimated by injuries on the blueline & playing 2-3 less games than most NHL teams.

Screen Shot 2017-07-18 at 6.25.37 PM.png

With Mason on board & what looks like one of the deepest three pairings of blueliners in the NHL, I think a great bet, given the odds, is taking the the Jets winning the cup this season at the current listing of 50-1.


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07-18-2017, 08:15 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
This thread title is wrong. It should ask if the Leafs and Oilers will be competitive with the Jets. Or did I wander onto the Leafs board by mistake?

Every time I see this thread's title it gets up my nose.
Well, we did lose all our games with Edmonton and split with Toronto. For accuracy maybe it should be - will we be competitive with the oilers and stay competitive with Toronto?

[mod]


Last edited by Romang67: 07-18-2017 at 10:55 PM. Reason: Tone it down.
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07-18-2017, 10:54 PM
  #165
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This is an interesting three no doubt, it could shape the league for years if these three teams rise to the level their talent can dictate.

I don't see a Chicago-Pittsburgh-Washington comparison, I would prefer a Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA comparison.

Comparing the Jets to Washington seats shivers up the spine given what choke artists they are.

Our forwards and hopefully D now with an emerging Morrissey/Trouba do remind me of the Hawks. Chicago won a Cup with Niemi in net and our goaltending isn't going to get much better than him.

Edmonton reminds me of Pittsburgh because Draisaitl/McDavid give off a Malkin/Crosby vibe to me.

I can't help but think one of Tavares/Doughty goes home and boosts the Leafs to elite status for a long time. Matthews reminds me of Kopitar.

The good news is no one is going to rip off consecutive Cups year after year due to the Cap. I am glad Toronto is not in our Conference.

This year will be quite telling if Mason is at least average. We'll know for sure what we need in the next year.

I certainly would not overlook Calgary either. That defence is going to be special for awhile.

Edmonton may be ahead of us right now, but the gap is manageable, for the moment.


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07-19-2017, 03:29 AM
  #166
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Well Edmonton finished 8th in the league with 103 points and they were a plus 35 in goal differential so they definitely arrived. The main reason for the Oilers success outside of McDavid was Talbot's .919 save %. We will have trouble beating the Oilers if Talbot stays in the .920 range and we don't find a top 10 NHL starter.

Toronto and Edmonton were both in the top 11 in the NHL in team save %. does anyone see a pattern for success?

Jets scored more goals (ok only by 2) but the problem is we let in a dismal 44 more goals than Edmonton with are whooping team save % of .900. Now the good news is if we get anywhere close to a team .915 save % that eliminates 38 of the goals and we should be a top 6-10 NHL team.

Stay out of the ****ing box and stop the puck more please (see avy). Now in fairness only 8 clubs had a team save % of .915 or greater in 2016-17 so that will not be easy and the way our team takes penalties a .910 may be more realistic but that would still lead to 25 goals less than last season and probably put us in the mix for the playoffs. The odd thing is looking at the team save % back ups are very important and the thing that may make or break us is Helly's save % in a back up role (if that is how it plays out).

The year we made the playoffs our team save % was 10th in the NHL. Last two seasons it's been 28th and 28th.

It's about the goals against this season folks because scoring will not be our issue......our team from the D core out is built to score.

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07-19-2017, 08:58 AM
  #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DowntownBooster View Post
Definitely not the Leafs board. The thread's title was simply based on how the national media seems to focus on the Oilers and Leafs. It was only a few years prior that the Jets were viewed favorably with all our prospects by the same media. I was wondering if those teams had suddenly become better than the Jets now that each of them has a cornerstone piece in place -- Connor McDavid for Edmonton and Auston Matthews for Toronto. I'm not doubting that the Jets will be a competitive team but I do wonder if McDavid is going to have the same Gretzky-like influence on the Oilers that will give them the edge over the Jets like we witnessed in the 1980s and if Matthews has the ability to do the same for the Leafs (with the coaching of Mike Babcock). Just wanted to get some opinions on how others felt about it that's all.

I've been thinking about this point as well while going through this thread.

Imagine all three teams losing to injury - McDavid, Mathews, Laine.

Then which team is most competitive? If a team is just it's star, then you could be in trouble with a single injury.

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07-19-2017, 09:09 AM
  #168
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Well Edmonton finished 8th in the league with 103 points and they were a plus 35 in goal differential so they definitely arrived. The main reason for the Oilers success outside of McDavid was Talbot's .919 save %. We will have trouble beating the Oilers if Talbot stays in the .920 range and we don't find a top 10 NHL starter.

Toronto and Edmonton were both in the top 11 in the NHL in team save %. does anyone see a pattern for success?

Jets scored more goals (ok only by 2) but the problem is we let in a dismal 44 more goals than Edmonton with are whooping team save % of .900. Now the good news is if we get anywhere close to a team .915 save % that eliminates 38 of the goals and we should be a top 6-10 NHL team.

Stay out of the ****ing box and stop the puck more please (see avy). Now in fairness only 8 clubs had a team save % of .915 or greater in 2016-17 so that will not be easy and the way our team takes penalties a .910 may be more realistic but that would still lead to 25 goals less than last season and probably put us in the mix for the playoffs. The odd thing is looking at the team save % back ups are very important and the thing that may make or break us is Helly's save % in a back up role (if that is how it plays out).

The year we made the playoffs our team save % was 10th in the NHL. Last two seasons it's been 28th and 28th.

It's about the goals against this season folks because scoring will not be our issue......our team from the D core out is built to score.
Agree that goals against will be the key this season. Problem is that Maurice believes the way to achieve this is through improved execution of an already low event style of hockey (looking for improvement from the young`uns especially). He will stress conservative, low-risk approach irrespective of which system formation is in play.We have already seen how that results in a faltering breakout system and especially a poor penalty kill system

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07-19-2017, 09:23 AM
  #169
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I've been thinking about this point as well while going through this thread.

Imagine all three teams losing to injury - McDavid, Mathews, Laine.

Then which team is most competitive? If a team is just it's star, then you could be in trouble with a single injury.
Let's ask this question instead: what if your #1C went down, as that's what you're proposing with the Leafs and the Oilers?

McDavid, Matthews, and Scheifele all out.

Now who'd be in worse shape? I think the Oilers and Jets do fairly well here, as Little and Drai slide up into the 1C position. Leafs may suffer more here.

I like the Jets depth this year - I think they're going to surprise a bunch of people in various fanbases, including ours.

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07-19-2017, 09:51 AM
  #170
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Agree that goals against will be the key this season. Problem is that Maurice believes the way to achieve this is through improved execution of an already low event style of hockey (looking for improvement from the young`uns especially). He will stress conservative, low-risk approach irrespective of which system formation is in play.We have already seen how that results in a faltering breakout system and especially a poor penalty kill system
I guess we'll see if he sticks with that plan this season I am not convinced yet (the definition of insanity). We could vastly improve our goals against easily by quite a few factors as mentioned first an foremost team save %, less minor penalties, improved PK, better team defending, improved possession numbers, less injuries so our D core stays in tact and plays more man games.

I am hoping this year the coaches do there job and the leaders in the room do their job and we let it rip and bully other teams with our skill speed and quality goaltending.


I remain confident this is the season we step up.....there is now too much talent in very position including goal finally.

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07-19-2017, 09:51 AM
  #171
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Let's ask this question instead: what if your #1C went down, as that's what you're proposing with the Leafs and the Oilers?

McDavid, Matthews, and Scheifele all out.

Now who'd be in worse shape? I think the Oilers and Jets do fairly well here, as Little and Drai slide up into the 1C position. Leafs may suffer more here.

I like the Jets depth this year - I think they're going to surprise a bunch of people in various fanbases, including ours.
Well we saw how the oilers handled the loss of McDavid two seasons ago when they tanked. Quite frankly I don't like their depth upfront and think if McDavid goes didn't they won't fair that well. They also lucked out in that their injuries last season where on fringe/depth Players.

Toronto was super healthy last season. I am interested in seeing how they would handle a run of injuries.

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07-19-2017, 09:59 AM
  #172
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Well we saw how the oilers handled the loss of McDavid two seasons ago when they tanked. Quite frankly I don't like their depth upfront and think if McDavid goes didn't they won't fair that well. They also lucked out in that their injuries last season where on fringe/depth Players.

Toronto was super healthy last season. I am interested in seeing how they would handle a run of injuries.
Yea both Toronto and Edmonton will have trouble repeating how healthy they were. We will have trouble repeating how banged up we were.

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07-19-2017, 10:09 AM
  #173
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Some great breakdowns and numbers being posted here.

My gut feeling is that the Oilers finish with slightly less points than last year, the Leafs finish with slightly more, and the Jets finish with significantly more. Order of regular season points is probably Oilers > Jets > Leafs.

The Oilers are in an easy division, so that's going to help them. But they had a very fortunate season in terms of injuries, and performance of most key players. I wouldn't say they overperformed as a team, but more that everything "went right" for them. They red-lined the whole season without blowing the engine. Doubtful that holds for two years straight.

The Leafs were masters of the loser point. That ain't gonna hold. Strong goaltending masked some deficiencies on D. But outside that, they're young, talented, well-coached, and on the way up. But I think it's a slower build upward from here, given they have made the playoffs already.

The Jets seriously underperformed last year. It's hard to imagine our goaltending could be worse this year. It's hard to imagine our injuries could be worse this year (knock on wood). We got better on paper though the expansion draft and free agency. Our schedule looks like a cake-walk compared to last year. While we're still a young team, we'll have less rookies than in seasons past. All these factors taken together, we seem spring-loaded to leap forward in the standings.

The only downtrend for the Jets may be our record against other central division teams. The central looks poised once again to be a tough division. Whatever strange magic allowed us to beat up on other central div teams last year may not hold. But there's so much room for improvement against the rest of the league, I'm not too worried.

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07-19-2017, 11:47 AM
  #174
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I think Daisaitl is being overrated by many. Aside from a few playoff games he still hasn't shown he is elite without McDavid. TMac had to keep putting him back with McD to get some production from him. The comparison to Malkin is wishful thinking by Oiler fans at this point. maybe someday but not proven yet. Jets have proven they can perform when key players are injured. Oilers haven't had that opportunity yet and I remain doubtful that they can perform.

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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Let's ask this question instead: what if your #1C went down, as that's what you're proposing with the Leafs and the Oilers?

McDavid, Matthews, and Scheifele all out.

Now who'd be in worse shape? I think the Oilers and Jets do fairly well here, as Little and Drai slide up into the 1C position. Leafs may suffer more here.

I like the Jets depth this year - I think they're going to surprise a bunch of people in various fanbases, including ours.

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07-19-2017, 12:04 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Let's ask this question instead: what if your #1C went down, as that's what you're proposing with the Leafs and the Oilers?

McDavid, Matthews, and Scheifele all out.

Now who'd be in worse shape? I think the Oilers and Jets do fairly well here, as Little and Drai slide up into the 1C position. Leafs may suffer more here.

I like the Jets depth this year - I think they're going to surprise a bunch of people in various fanbases, including ours.
Yes, that's a better comparison. And I agree that I have to like the Jets' depth over the Leafs at Center.

Overall I like our depth better than almost anyone's.

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