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Old
07-03-2017, 08:20 PM
  #76
SK13
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The exact same team on paper was likely to be worse IMO.

Their 10 most important players lost 6 out of 820 man-games. Talbot was leaned on immensely to hide the fact that the Oilers D allowed far, far too many scoring chances. Secondary scoring was problematic for most of the year.

They're already walking into the season with at least 40 important man-games lost; Talbot is getting no help and is less than guaranteed to repeat his performance; and they traded a better offensive player for a worse offensive player with the hope that he can notably improve on his last 2 years. Also, we bought out our best PKer and were treading water in that category with him.

You're basically counting on internal growth and good injury luck to stand in place.

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Old
07-03-2017, 08:36 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by FunkyChicken View Post
I didn't specifically name those players but I believe my theory will hold true for the team where internal growth will be matched by internal deterioration.

If I was going to bet on regression I would say:
1. Talbot - career year, not sure if it is repeatable (this would be a significant blow)
2. Sekera - serious injury for an older player are sometimes hard to come back from
3. Russell - think he overachieved
4. Lucic - signs of serious foot speed deterioration already
5. Benning - like his game but not sure if his frame makes his current game sustainable

Can't predict the future, but I sure hope Chia is banking on more than internal growth and optimism to win games. As of right now, we don't have the depth to cope without growth and don't have the depth to cope and weather any type of McDavid injury.
Talbot needs to remain consistent at least for this teams success.

Will he match last seasons performance? We don't know yet and that was considered over achieving definitely, I agree.

That's why I will bank on Brossoit to perform.

Gustavsson played in seven games last season and that was seven games too many.

Brossoit played in eight games for the Oil last season so I'm hoping Brossoit can perform decent enough to get in around the 20 game mark.

This means Talbot won't need to play in 65+ regular season games where he can get rest.

We will be relying more heavily on Talbot than Lucic, Sekera, Russell and Benning on your list. Mentioning Benning seemed random in particular if it's only about his frame as you noted.

I remain optimistic on this young team.

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Old
07-03-2017, 10:07 PM
  #78
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Cant say that we got better but the offseason isnt over yet.

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07-03-2017, 10:22 PM
  #79
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Significantly worse

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Old
07-04-2017, 03:09 AM
  #80
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Worse, only because we are missing Sekera for a long period. Unless, that's addressed, we might have some tough times early in the season.. We can only hope Nurse and Benning take a huge step forward so that corps won't get exposed..

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Old
07-04-2017, 03:30 AM
  #81
McDrai2017
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I have NO idea why as to why Chia has not been doing anything.. what am I missing?

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Old
07-04-2017, 04:02 AM
  #82
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Maybe next year should just be a development year. I mean we lost Eberle and got Strome back. How the hell will this team make up those 14sh points?

Sekera gone for 1-3 months?

Seriously, Chia should just sit tight. What's the point in next year?

Were doomed.

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Old
07-04-2017, 06:13 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by McDrai2017 View Post
I have NO idea why as to why Chia has not been doing anything.. what am I missing?
Our 2 best players are reportedly asking for anywhere between 21 and 23 million dollars. We have signed like 8 or 9 AHL dudes that don't add to the cap, and shipped out a couple overpaid guys for cap space. Chiarelli has been very active, just not in adding proving talent (money) to the roster. All signs point to the goal being sign these 2 and see how much room (if any) there is to add some more depth to the team.

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Old
07-04-2017, 07:32 AM
  #84
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Without serious leaps by Cag, Slep, Nurse, Benn and maybe Pul they will be worse. Not out of the playoffs worse, but just happy to be there worse. Adding at least one quality winger can go a long way to reversing this imo.

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07-04-2017, 08:12 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Shane Goudie View Post
Without serious leaps by Cag, Slep, Nurse, Benn and maybe Pul they will be worse. Not out of the playoffs worse, but just happy to be there worse. Adding at least one quality winger can go a long way to reversing this imo.
Typically there are two players a season that step up beyond expectation. I am guessing Slepy and Pulju this season.

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Old
07-04-2017, 08:59 AM
  #86
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I think every fan including myslef last year this time thought we would be battling for a playoff spot or just squeaking in. So im not surprised with people saying we are worse.

We will be trading away some futures this year at the deadline and going for it IMO.

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Old
07-04-2017, 09:01 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by harpoon View Post
Totally sick and tired of you running down Eberle in post after post while telling others to stop posting on the topic.
Why don't you put your avatar where your mouth is?
Assuming healthy seasons for both, Eberle scores more goals and points than Strome next season.
Make no mistake Eberles production is going to be missed by this team.

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Old
07-04-2017, 09:31 AM
  #88
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Make no mistake Eberles production is going to be missed by this team.
Even at his worst.

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Old
07-04-2017, 09:39 AM
  #89
x GreatKeith
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Originally Posted by Porkleaker View Post
Even at his worst.
Indeed. 50 point players aren't so easily replaced.

As of right now we are worse.

While I'm sure our GM has a plan it's a bit frustrating for them to have not signed anyone of significance.

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:05 AM
  #90
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So, I like Eberle. I have a signed jersey, and signed canvas of his world junior goal (where he also wrote 5.4 seconds on it)

I give him credit for buying into TM's system this past year. He tried really hard, but it killed his game. Same with Pouliot.

Neither of these players were ever going to bounce back under the system. Which is okay.

There is only so much puck to go around. You may not see Strome replace his points, but his points will be replaced. (Oilers 2nd line total points will increase from last year.)

It's not like Eberle or Pouliot did anything for us in the playoffs. The Oilers could've beat Anaheim. Everyone looks at those few games they should've won. But really that series was a toss up. I don't think they could've beat Nashville or Pittsburg though, but probably were good enough to take each to 6 games.

Our D are all still improving, but really their main job is to transition the puck to the offence as quick as possible. (I actually think the Oilers had a top 3 break-out in the league and i expect it to continue)

A lot of people would look at our D and say that no changes makes us worse. And are afraid of the lack of depth.
There was an interesting article, sorry i can't remember the source, but basically it was showing that a top 4 D on any team is irreplaceable and no team in the league actually has D depth.
Because of the Oilers breakout, i actually think our D is underrated vastly. But it's not underrated by actual teams. If you compare the game tapes from last year to the year before you can see it. Teams respect the hell out of the Oilers breakout now, and back right off. It also becomes a self fullfilling prophecy, as the more space they give the oilers the better their breakout becomes.

The media like to make a big deal about face-offs, but its really not important. It`s just like any other 50/50 play. The same as a board battle, but even less so because everyone is already prepared for the loss. The difference between best to worse is about 3 faceoffs per game (1 in each zone). So in actual scoring chance differences best to worse, it would take about 10 games to create a difference in scoring chances, and about 40 games for a goal difference.

So i don't really think faceoffs are killing the team in any way, especially when they dominate on the board battles. Still, losing faceoffs is a coaching nightmare because it's a missed opportunity for a set play, and it's a learnable skill.

The other thing about faceoffs is, the stiffer your stick the better chance you'll have at winning the draws. So, you're sacrificing your shot to win faceoffs. I'd rather have the centers use whippier sticks for better shots. (Ebs switched to a stiffer stick this year and it cost him heavily)

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:24 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by x GreatKeith View Post
Indeed. 50 point players aren't so easily replaced.

As of right now we are worse.

While I'm sure our GM has a plan it's a bit frustrating for them to have not signed anyone of significance.
According to this site: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1342

5:5 When Eberle was on the ice they scored 46 goals all year (the whole line, including D).
And 24 goals were scored when he was on the ice for PP. (again whole line).

Not Concerned at all about replacing his PP2 spot and 14 points on it.

You may not see Strome get 51, but i would bet anyone that our 2nd line gets more than 46 5:5 goals next year, and our PP2 gets more than 24 goals.
(So with that i'm saying Eberle's points will be replaced through the whole 2nd line, including D)

There is only so much puck to go around, which is why losing Hall last year meant nothing.

(I'm saying all of this as a big eberle fan, i have a signed jersey, and a signed canvas of him) But there is only so much puck to go around, and him buying into the system (which i give him tons of credit for) killed his game.

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:26 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PumpkinBomb View Post
So, I like Eberle. I have a signed jersey, and signed canvas of his world junior goal (where he also wrote 5.4 seconds on it)

I give him credit for buying into TM's system this past year. He tried really hard, but it killed his game. Same with Pouliot.

Neither of these players were ever going to bounce back under the system. Which is okay.

There is only so much puck to go around. You may not see Strome replace his points, but his points will be replaced. (Oilers 2nd line total points will increase from last year.)

It's not like Eberle or Pouliot did anything for us in the playoffs. The Oilers could've beat Anaheim. Everyone looks at those few games they should've won. But really that series was a toss up. I don't think they could've beat Nashville or Pittsburg though, but probably were good enough to take each to 6 games.

Our D are all still improving, but really their main job is to transition the puck to the offence as quick as possible. (I actually think the Oilers had a top 3 break-out in the league and i expect it to continue)

A lot of people would look at our D and say that no changes makes us worse. And are afraid of the lack of depth.
There was an interesting article, sorry i can't remember the source, but basically it was showing that a top 4 D on any team is irreplaceable and no team in the league actually has D depth.
Because of the Oilers breakout, i actually think our D is underrated vastly. But it's not underrated by actual teams. If you compare the game tapes from last year to the year before you can see it. Teams respect the hell out of the Oilers breakout now, and back right off. It also becomes a self fullfilling prophecy, as the more space they give the oilers the better their breakout becomes.

The media like to make a big deal about face-offs, but its really not important. It`s just like any other 50/50 play. The same as a board battle, but even less so because everyone is already prepared for the loss. The difference between best to worse is about 3 faceoffs per game (1 in each zone). So in actual scoring chance differences best to worse, it would take about 10 games to create a difference in scoring chances, and about 40 games for a goal difference.

So i don't really think faceoffs are killing the team in any way, especially when they dominate on the board battles. Still, losing faceoffs is a coaching nightmare because it's a missed opportunity for a set play, and it's a learnable skill.

The other thing about faceoffs is, the stiffer your stick the better chance you'll have at winning the draws. So, you're sacrificing your shot to win faceoffs. I'd rather have the centers use whippier sticks for better shots. (Ebs switched to a stiffer stick this year and it cost him heavily)
I don't buy at all that Eberle's offense was stifled due to playing under McLellan's system. The number of amazing scoring chances he was gifted and somehow flubbed last year was frankly unbelievable. He could have had 40 goals if he had been able to finish.

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:36 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Giggli G View Post
I don't buy at all that Eberle's offense was stifled due to playing under McLellan's system. The number of amazing scoring chances he was gifted and somehow flubbed last year was frankly unbelievable. He could have had 40 goals if he had been able to finish.
This.

Eberle is not the difference between our team being good or bad.

Some of you need to get over it.

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:47 AM
  #94
PumpkinBomb
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Originally Posted by Giggli G View Post
I don't buy at all that Eberle's offense was stifled due to playing under McLellan's system. The number of amazing scoring chances he was gifted and somehow flubbed last year was frankly unbelievable. He could have had 40 goals if he had been able to finish.
I somewhat disagree.

He has always flubbed chances, every player does. His total scoring chances decreased, so the flubs look worse. Some of those are that he changed to a stiffer stick this year and that killed his wrist shot. His slap shot improved, and ability to win puck battles on the boards improved, but at the expense of his shot. Also, to better support the puck he played more from the perimeter.

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Old
07-04-2017, 10:53 AM
  #95
x GreatKeith
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Originally Posted by Ninety7 View Post
This.

Eberle is not the difference between our team being good or bad.

Some of you need to get over it.
He's not the difference but the fact of the matter is our RW position is extremely weak at this moment.

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Old
07-04-2017, 11:25 AM
  #96
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McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Pulju, Khiara, RNH, Slep, Larsson, Klefbom and LB are all under the age at which players of their position peak, and most of them are WELL under. That's half of the starting roster, including the best player to play in the last 15 years. Natural improvement boosts the Oilers significantly this year. Maybe, just maybe, Chia knows what he's doing? I hope so.

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Old
07-04-2017, 11:33 AM
  #97
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To me it only matters if we improved for the playoffs.

We've lost Pouliot, Eberle, Desharnais, and Hendricks from forwards. Doubt that we'll miss three of those, I think it's good that we're giving Khaira an opportunity (would of preferred to sell Pouliot at the deadline with $ retained).

In terms of playoffs, our forward depth is okay, but we could really use a veteran RW or 3C pick-up at the deadline. At the moment it looks like...

Caggiula/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Lucic/Draisaitl/Strome
Maroon/Nuge/Slepyshev
Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

On D we're only miss depth/call-up options which I bet we'll feel later.

Hell, Sekera getting injured essentially killed our chances of reaching the 3rd round. That big, last-minute come from behind victory by Anaheim likely wouldn't of happened if Sekera was healthy. Klef might have been on the bench due to the flu, can't remember.

I think our D largely stays intact until after the playoffs... doubt Chia picks anyone up that pushes Nurse or Benning to #7.

Give the young guns a challenge and opportunity to grow, evaluate, then pick up what you need at the deadline. Preferably not at the cost of a 2018 1st...


Last edited by Glass: 07-04-2017 at 11:38 AM.
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Old
07-04-2017, 11:38 AM
  #98
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I think our D largely stays intact until after the playoffs... doubt Chia picks anyone up that pushes Nurse or Benning to #7.
Why not? It would make the team better.

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Old
07-04-2017, 12:10 PM
  #99
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Better

Cut stagnating salary deadweight to focus on players who can improve, and will need to earn their contracts.

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Old
07-04-2017, 12:15 PM
  #100
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not sure if they are better ,about the same, but dallas got a lot better and so another team they need to compete for a spot.

I think sharks will take a bit of a fall, and LA should still be battling

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