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2017 Ranking #1

View Poll Results: Avalanche #1 prospect is:
Chris Bigras (D) San Antonio [#32 overall, 2013] 0 0%
JT Compher (C) San Antonio [#35 overall, 2013] 4 3.01%
AJ Greer (LW) San Antonio [#39 overall, 2015] 0 0%
Tyson Jost (C) North Dakota [#10 overall, 2016] 57 42.86%
Cale Makar (D) Brooks [#4 overall, 2017] 72 54.14%
Nicolas Meloche (D) Charlottetown [#40 overall, 2015] 0 0%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-06-2017, 12:36 PM
  #51
CobraAcesS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
There aren't many players I would argue are tracking as top line forward, it's a difficult to project position and it's becoming increasingly rare in the NHL to be a bonafide top line forward. Whereas the separation between true top pairing potential and that gray area top 4/higher potential is growing. Many more defenders display elements of a top pairing defender but even fewer display the total package.

Makar, as a defender, displays the ability to be the total package on defense. He hasn't shutdown top competition yet in his career but he has that 'the best offense is a great defense' ability. If you're always on the attack then you're rarely defending. It's not a common quality and rarely do players with top pairing potential possess it.

Next year my evaluation may totally change, Makar may not take that next step and Jost may have established himself in the NHL. At which point they aren't even directly compared anymore.
I know this is defense and forwards, but MacK had a similar issue. They always had the puck so he never had to defend.

Guys like Karlsson, and Letang (Lately) that can actually control the play that much for huge amount of minutes where their size and defensive ability are almost irrelevant are rare. Letang and others that do it had to develop that ability over years in the NHL, and Karlsson is a generational talent on defense.

Another factor? Often times these guys like Karlsson have complete freedom within their system, or in Letang's case the system fits them to a T. A lot of other offensive defenders like Kirk and Barrie will never make it beyond the second pairing. There is a lot more guys in that second tier of OFD than the top tier. Hell a couple of them in Buff and Burns also have the size as well.

What do you think the chance is that we allow Makar complete freedom like Werenski was given?

I know I'm saying some of the same things you are, but I just don't see this "whole package" you are talking about yet. In fact I'd say his ability to play to a level where his offense so far out weights his defensive ability is exactly what he has to prove against higher end competition. I think you are giving credit a little too early before it's been earned.

The thing I hate about pure offensive defenders is that it seems like the damn sun, stars and moon all need to align perfectly for them to hit their ceiling. My hope is that he actually gets stronger, maybe grows and inch or so, and does not end up with nearly as much of a disadvantage physically. Closer to Letang than Barrie or Kirk. Again another fine line.

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07-06-2017, 12:54 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by LieutenantDangle View Post
I usually respect your opinions so if you think he's top pairing material id believe it. There just seemed to be question marks about his defensive game (due to driving possession in the offensive zone), because he's hardly ever in his own zone. We will see what he's made of playing in college next season. I dont imagine his team will be dominating zone time.
The questions are just because we haven't seen it; not because Makar doesn't have the tools to do it. With his skating, stick, and smarts; there's little reason to think Makar won't be able to defend until we see him struggle with it.

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07-06-2017, 01:16 PM
  #53
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Don't confuse being smart with the puck and having good offensive IQ with being defensively smart. Just in that one shift by shift video of his floating around he shows a couple defensive lapses.

Guys his size (5'11" or less) who play good D now were known to play good D at his age.

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07-06-2017, 01:22 PM
  #54
Bubba Thudd
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Jeez, Rocko, why do you hate Jost so much?


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07-06-2017, 01:38 PM
  #55
Lonewolfe2015
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
I know I'm saying some of the same things you are, but I just don't see this "whole package" you are talking about yet. In fact I'd say his ability to play to a level where his offense so far out weights his defensive ability is exactly what he has to prove against higher end competition. I think you are giving credit a little too early before it's been earned.
See below. There's not a whole lot of prospects that even enter into this discussion period, so it is worth evaluating Makar accordingly. I wouldn't even include Letang in it, he's pretty solid defensively. I'm talking about someone like a prime Green, today's Karlsson, questionably Burns or even a Coffey.

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The questions are just because we haven't seen it; not because Makar doesn't have the tools to do it. With his skating, stick, and smarts; there's little reason to think Makar won't be able to defend until we see him struggle with it.
Completely agreed. It's one thing if you opened a thread and asked me to tell you the probability of Makar being able to reach that level or play such a stellar offensive game that his ability to play shutdown top pairing minutes is irrelevant.

It's another thing to have a thread here asking me to rank our prospects, where I believe rankings are entirely projected based on their current potential level and what they have shown to-date. You can't over analyze this, at least that's what I've learned over the years watching our prospects develop.

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07-06-2017, 01:40 PM
  #56
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I can't believe it's that close. I like Jost but his ceiling is 2C while Makar has an elite defenseman ceiling. We're asking who's the better prospect here. I understand the bird in the hand thing but it really shouldn't be this close. If Jost turns out to be the better player then it's bad news for us.

Only AVS fans...

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07-06-2017, 01:40 PM
  #57
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The reason I rate NHL readiness so highly is the closer they are to the NHL, the easier it is to tell where their floor/ceiling is. Lots of defenders have top pair "ceilings" at 17, but it's not a given that they'll make it. As they progress beyond their draft year and you see if/how they are improving and in what areas, it's easier to project where they're likely to eventually play in the NHL, which is the ultimate test of "value".

Right now, Makar is a lot of magic beans, in large part because he hasn't played a single game since being drafted. His draft+1 season is going to be the real test for him, and until I see that I can't rate him higher than Jost.

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07-06-2017, 01:46 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
The reason I rate NHL readiness so highly is the closer they are to the NHL, the easier it is to tell where their floor/ceiling is. Lots of defenders have top pair "ceilings" at 17, but it's not a given that they'll make it. As they progress beyond their draft year and you see if/how they are improving and in what areas, it's easier to project where they're likely to eventually play in the NHL, which is the ultimate test of "value".

Right now, Makar is a lot of magic beans, in large part because he hasn't played a single game since being drafted. His draft+1 season is going to be the real test for him, and until I see that I can't rate him higher than Jost.
It doesn't matter if he's a lot of magic beans, he's our best prospect because he's the one with the highest potential. He's not our best player yet, but he's our best prospect.

Either I don't understand the rankings correctly or you don't.

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07-06-2017, 01:46 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
I can't believe it's that close. I like Jost but his ceiling is 2C while Makar has an elite defenseman ceiling. We're asking who's the better prospect here. I understand the bird in the hand thing but it really shouldn't be this close. If Jost turns out to be the better player then it's bad news for us.

Only AVS fans...
You want to criticize others while at the same time limiting Jost to just a 2C???

If Makar has an elite ceiling then so does Jost. Both have weakness that are going to make it very tough to reach an elite level.

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07-06-2017, 01:49 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
If Makar has an elite ceiling then so does Jost.
According to who? You?

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07-06-2017, 01:50 PM
  #61
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Like I said for me it's what I saw with my own eyes, Makar's pure skill level is on par with mackinnon and that's the best we've had since him. The whole will he become a proper defender is a valid question but I can't ignore his raw skill and talent just to say his eventual career path is a little more uncertain.

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07-06-2017, 01:52 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
You want to criticize others while at the same time limiting Jost to just a 2C???

If Makar has an elite ceiling then so does Jost. Both have weakness that are going to make it very tough to reach an elite level.
I like Jost a lot; but I'm not sure his ceiling is more than a Parise-lite...which would make for a sweet LWer for MacK & Mikko; but doesn't match up to the ceiling Makar has.

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Like I said for me it's what I saw with my own eyes, Makar's pure skill level is on par with mackinnon and that's the best we've had since him. The whole will he become a proper defender is a valid question but I can't ignore his raw skill and talent just to say his eventual career path is a little more uncertain.

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07-06-2017, 01:52 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
It doesn't matter if he's a lot of magic beans, he's our best prospect because he's the one with the highest potential. He's not our best player yet, but he's our best prospect.

Either I don't understand the rankings correctly or you don't.
Typical HFBoards logic that ceiling = value. It is never that simple. If every player reached their draft year ceiling there would be four superstars on every team. Just because Maker could be Karlsson doesn't mean he should be valued as such at this time.

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07-06-2017, 01:53 PM
  #64
CobraAcesS
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
I can't believe it's that close. I like Jost but his ceiling is 2C while Makar has an elite defenseman ceiling. We're asking who's the better prospect here. I understand the bird in the hand thing but it really shouldn't be this close. If Jost turns out to be the better player then it's bad news for us.

Only AVS fans...
Makar could end up a total bust, while Jost is a much safer bet to be a top six forward. Jost has a much higher floor IMO, and there is value in that.

His ceiling might also be a top line winger as well. How good of a 2C you are talking about depends on which is more valuable.

I'd take Stepan over Barrie let's just put it that way.

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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
Like I said for me it's what I saw with my own eyes, Makar's pure skill level is on par with mackinnon and that's the best we've had since him. The whole will he become a proper defender is a valid question but I can't ignore his raw skill and talent just to say his eventual career path is a little more uncertain.
While I respect that, I'm also taking it with a grain of salt because it's a rookie camp. We've seen Jost in some NHL games, which pushes the close conversation in Josts favor IMO. With that said I'm also very distrusting of OFD, and not a big fan of Barrie.

I mean what are we going to do with that talent if he can't hold up on the back end? Turn him into a right wing?

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07-06-2017, 01:53 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
The reason I rate NHL readiness so highly is the closer they are to the NHL, the easier it is to tell where their floor/ceiling is. Lots of defenders have top pair "ceilings" at 17, but it's not a given that they'll make it. As they progress beyond their draft year and you see if/how they are improving and in what areas, it's easier to project where they're likely to eventually play in the NHL, which is the ultimate test of "value".

Right now, Makar is a lot of magic beans, in large part because he hasn't played a single game since being drafted. His draft+1 season is going to be the real test for him, and until I see that I can't rate him higher than Jost.
I think that's where we disagree. Top pairing potential is not a super common trait. I think it's becoming more common than a top line forward, simply by the nature of a greater amount of parity defensively in a player's ability to slide between 1st/2nd pairing in various systems.

But even then, taking into account Jost's relative potential +1 year from his draft it's still lower than Makar's relative potential today. Jost hasn't shown anymore than top 6 upside. Hypothetically, let's say Makar has a 50% chance of top pairing and 50% chance of being a 3-6 defender. As a prospect you take a player like him over Jost who may have a 75% chance of being a top 6 forward and a 25% chance of worse. You probably don't even take Rantanen over Makar if you rewound to last offseason.

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07-06-2017, 01:56 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
Typical HFBoards logic that ceiling = value. It is never that simple. If every player reached their draft year ceiling there would be four superstars on every team. Just because Maker could be Karlsson doesn't mean he should be valued as such at this time.
He doesn't need to be Karlsson right now to be a better prospect than Jost at this point. If Makar struggles at the NCAA level against the puck and Jost wins the Calder; that'd change, but at this moment Makar is just a higher level talent, and that's more important than safety or readiness. Those are great tiebreakers with prospects on the same level, but they don't bridge a gap in talent unless you're talking about serious longshot/long-term-project like Clurman.

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07-06-2017, 01:56 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Makar could end up a total bust, while Jost is a much safer bet to be a top six forward. Jost has a much higher floor IMO, and there is value in that.

His ceiling might also be a top line winger as well. How good of a 2C you are talking about depends on which is more valuable.

I'd take Stepan over Barrie let's just put it that way.
Would you say Bigras is a better prospect than Makar? He has a higher floor.

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07-06-2017, 01:59 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
Would you say Bigras is a better prospect than Makar? He has a higher floor.
Not if Woody can't learn to avoid getting destroyed. Love him, but as long as he keeps getting run over like that he won't be an NHL regular.

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07-06-2017, 01:59 PM
  #69
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According to who? You?
According to history. Maybe you should look at the development and or scouting reports of some of the current elite players.

I know you think the draft means everything, but it really doesn't.

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07-06-2017, 02:03 PM
  #70
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I think a big difference between where people are between Makar and Jost is where they rate Jost. If people see Jost as a top line center sort, it is easy to have Jost above. Maybe even top line winger. I just disagree with that sentiment. Jost had a solid +1 year, but it wasn't exceptional. He has some size issues to go along with imperfect skating. I truly believe he can be a good #2C with a chance to be an elite one, but that doesn't outweigh the potential that Makar has (though I agree he is very risky).

There might also be a divide on how certain defensemen are valued. Say Makar becomes a Barrie level player. I personally value that more than a #2C, especially if that center is undersized.

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07-06-2017, 02:06 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
According to history. Maybe you should look at the development and or scouting reports of some of the current elite players.

I know you think the draft means everything, but it really doesn't.
So history says that Jost has elite potential because of scouting reports of current elite players.

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07-06-2017, 02:11 PM
  #72
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I think a big difference between where people are between Makar and Jost is where they rate Jost.
I don't think many people objectively see Jost as a future 1st liner. I think it's more that they see Makar as an offensive defenseman and their brain automatically makes a Tyson Barrie connection.

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07-06-2017, 02:12 PM
  #73
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Would you say Bigras is a better prospect than Makar? He has a higher floor.
If Bigras had not had as many injury issues lately. Then yeah, but that gets into really murky territory. The way Bigras played at times during the 15-16 season was very encouraging.

To answer your question clearly. No I wouldn't, but the talent Makar shows is enough to put him over Bigras when you add in the issues Bigras has had lately that created questions regarding his future. Jost has not had those issues. He has not hit any road blocks that he didn't quickly figure out. He might this season though, and so could Makar playing against older stronger players in College.

Bigras is actually a great example of a player with very strong skating and intelligence, who isn't small, and is having trouble with some aspects of the physical side of the game. You see how much of an impact that can have on a player.

I keep saying this, but I'm also very distrusting of OFD because of the inconsistency and what's need to make them work at a very high level in the NHL. There is more barriers to their success because if they can't control the play at the level needed, or your system isn't catered to them they become almost a net negative on your roster at times like we've seen with Barrie.

I'm being fairly clear and open about the bias and distrust I have in this situation. You will not find me screaming about how Karlsson is the best defender in the NHL. I'd probably answer Hedman or Doughty if asked that question. Just so it's clear what I value here.

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Not if Woody can't learn to avoid getting destroyed. Love him, but as long as he keeps getting run over like that he won't be an NHL regular.
This ^

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07-06-2017, 02:13 PM
  #74
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I think having such a close poll between these two is actually very good for us and not a detriment to either prospect...

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07-06-2017, 02:16 PM
  #75
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I don't think many people objectively see Jost as a future 1st liner. I think it's more that they see Makar as an offensive defenseman and their brain automatically makes a Tyson Barrie connection.
Where as your brain makes an even more absurd connection to Karlsson.

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