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2017 Ranking #1

View Poll Results: Avalanche #1 prospect is:
Chris Bigras (D) San Antonio [#32 overall, 2013] 0 0%
JT Compher (C) San Antonio [#35 overall, 2013] 4 3.01%
AJ Greer (LW) San Antonio [#39 overall, 2015] 0 0%
Tyson Jost (C) North Dakota [#10 overall, 2016] 57 42.86%
Cale Makar (D) Brooks [#4 overall, 2017] 72 54.14%
Nicolas Meloche (D) Charlottetown [#40 overall, 2015] 0 0%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-06-2017, 02:17 PM
  #76
CobraAcesS
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I think a big difference between where people are between Makar and Jost is where they rate Jost. If people see Jost as a top line center sort, it is easy to have Jost above. Maybe even top line winger. I just disagree with that sentiment. Jost had a solid +1 year, but it wasn't exceptional. He has some size issues to go along with imperfect skating. I truly believe he can be a good #2C with a chance to be an elite one, but that doesn't outweigh the potential that Makar has (though I agree he is very risky).

There might also be a divide on how certain defensemen are valued. Say Makar becomes a Barrie level player. I personally value that more than a #2C, especially if that center is undersized.
This is very true. I'm personally trying to be completely open about where my bias is as well.

I know you are high on Stepan, so who would you take between him and Barrie? I think the preference between those two could easily be what we're looking at between Jost and Makar. Even if things go more right than wrong for both of them.

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07-06-2017, 02:26 PM
  #77
henchman24
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
This is very true. I'm personally trying to be completely open about where my bias is as well.

I know you are high on Stepan, so who would you take between him and Barrie? I think the preference between those two could easily be what we're looking at between Jost and Makar. Even if things go more right than wrong for both of them.
Depends on the makeup of the team, but Barrie would have an edge with the Avs and likely around most of the league. Pretty close though. IMO a Stepan type player is what Jost turns into if everything goes well.

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07-06-2017, 02:28 PM
  #78
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See for me, a Stepan level player would be awesome, but I see his potential even higher that that.

Jost for me 100%.

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07-06-2017, 02:37 PM
  #79
CobraAcesS
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Depends on the makeup of the team, but Barrie would have an edge with the Avs and likely around most of the league. Pretty close though. IMO a Stepan type player is what Jost turns into if everything goes well.
I think best case for Jost is an almost mirror image of Parise. I guess I'd agree with that specifically at center.

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07-06-2017, 02:43 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
I can't believe it's that close. I like Jost but his ceiling is 2C while Makar has an elite defenseman ceiling. We're asking who's the better prospect here. I understand the bird in the hand thing but it really shouldn't be this close. If Jost turns out to be the better player then it's bad news for us.

Only AVS fans...
I think it's more an underestimation of Jost than it is an underestimation of Makar fwiw. I dont believe 2c is his absolute ceiling

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07-06-2017, 02:50 PM
  #81
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If worse comes to worse I wonder if Makar could even make it as a forward. I say that because he's that skilled and I laugh at the suggestions of Barrie being turned into a forward.

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07-06-2017, 02:51 PM
  #82
Mystic MacK
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Really close for me but have to go with Makar due to his higher potential. Jost is the safer pick to be a solid NHLer, but I think Makar will safely be an NHLer of some sort at his worst. At a middle point in terms of both their potentials, Jost is higher, but Makar isn't too far off IMO.

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07-06-2017, 02:53 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
If worse comes to worse I wonder if Makar could even make it as a forward. I say that because he's that skilled and I laugh at the suggestions of Barrie being turned into a forward.
Way to ruin a perfectly good joke by taking it seriously.









not

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07-06-2017, 02:56 PM
  #84
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I went with Jost. Although I wouldn't mind a year in the AHL. I see his floor as higher then makar.. he's closer. And Jost will definitely be in NHL Makar needs to prove to me this year. Ill probably rate melocher higher right now too

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07-06-2017, 03:03 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
If worse comes to worse I wonder if Makar could even make it as a forward. I say that because he's that skilled and I laugh at the suggestions of Barrie being turned into a forward.
horror flashbacks of Stefan playing wing

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07-06-2017, 03:21 PM
  #86
Mystic MacK
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
I think best case for Jost is an almost mirror image of Parise. I guess I'd agree with that specifically at center.
I think that's the case if he ends up at wing. Probably with a bit less offense. If he ends up at center, I think he has a Drury level impact on his team. Hopefully a healthy one.

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07-06-2017, 03:21 PM
  #87
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Tough decision but I ended up going with Makar because of the upside. Jost will be the easy call in the next one.

Add Timmins.

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07-06-2017, 03:24 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Mystic MacK View Post
I think that's the case if he ends up at wing. Probably with a bit less offense. If he ends up at center, I think he has a Drury level impact on his team. Hopefully a healthy one.
Well yeah, didn't Parise hit 40 goals once? Different times..

I can accept that though.

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07-06-2017, 03:40 PM
  #89
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When it comes to valuing prospects, ceiling is not the only measure you can make. You have to balance their ceiling with their likelihood of reaching it. Compher could turn into ROR if he keeps improving, but it would be silly to value him that way just because he could technically reach that. The probability of that is low and it's smarter to value him as a strong middle six C/W.

Yes, Makar's ceiling is Karlsson, but IMO it's so unlikely that he reaches that level that it's impossible to rank him as though that's what he'll become. I value Jost's total package of ceiling, floor, and probability of reaching it (including intangibles), much higher than Makar at this point, because I find it vanishingly unlikely that we actually have a Karlsson back there.

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07-06-2017, 04:14 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
When it comes to valuing prospects, ceiling is not the only measure you can make. You have to balance their ceiling with their likelihood of reaching it. Compher could turn into ROR if he keeps improving, but it would be silly to value him that way just because he could technically reach that. The probability of that is low and it's smarter to value him as a strong middle six C/W.

Yes, Makar's ceiling is Karlsson, but IMO it's so unlikely that he reaches that level that it's impossible to rank him as though that's what he'll become. I value Jost's total package of ceiling, floor, and probability of reaching it (including intangibles), much higher than Makar at this point, because I find it vanishingly unlikely that we actually have a Karlsson back there.
It's unrealistic to believe that Makar will be as dominant as Karlsson, but it's reasonable to believe that he'll end somewhere between Jost and Karlsson (because there's a lot of empty space between the two). In other words it's very possible to be better than Jost and not as good as Karlsson.

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07-06-2017, 04:30 PM
  #91
McMetal
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
It's unrealistic to believe that Makar will be as dominant as Karlsson, but it's reasonable to believe that he'll end somewhere between Jost and Karlsson (because there's a lot of empty space between the two). In other words it's very possible to be better than Jost and not as good as Karlsson.
What people don't understand is that Karlsson-lite isn't just a #2 defenseman instead of a #1. Karlsson exists on a razor's edge of talent. He is able to play on the top pair because of his ludicrous skills, but even a slight step down from that isn't just a less capable top pair defenseman; it's a #3 who needs some sheltering. And that is a massive gulf in terms of value to a team.

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07-06-2017, 04:31 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
What people don't understand is that Karlsson-lite isn't just a #2 defenseman instead of a #1. Karlsson exists on a razor's edge of talent. He is able to play on the top pair because of his ludicrous skills, but even a slight step down from that isn't just a less capable top pair defenseman; it's a #3 who needs some sheltering. And that is a massive gulf in terms of value to a team.
I somewhat agree that the margin is thin... but Letang is smack in the middle of Barrie and Karlsson. Letang is a legit #1D still.

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07-06-2017, 04:33 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I somewhat agree that the margin is thin... but Letang is smack in the middle of Barrie and Karlsson. Letang is a legit #1D still.
When he's on top of his game, yes, but most of the time I'm not sure I'd consider him a legit 1D...

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07-06-2017, 04:36 PM
  #94
henchman24
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
When he's on top of his game, yes, but most of the time I'm not sure I'd consider him a legit 1D...
When Letang is healthy, I think he is one of the top 10 D in the league... maybe pushing top 5. He is crazy good when healthy.

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07-06-2017, 04:40 PM
  #95
CobraAcesS
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I somewhat agree that the margin is thin... but Letang is smack in the middle of Barrie and Karlsson. Letang is a legit #1D still.
Nice to see you are finally on my side with something lol. It wasn't that long ago that Letang wasn't viewed that highly. He took another step (with the PPG season), and then a step back with injury issues, and then took another step again when Sullivan took over.

I remember right after Letang signed for 7M, during that whole thing and after there were tones of trade rumors, and even a rumor about him being told he isn't the best defender on the team. (People assumed Martin was the other referred to)

It took a long time for Letang take that step to really taking over the top pair.

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07-06-2017, 04:52 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Foppberg View Post
See for me, a Stepan level player would be awesome, but I see his potential even higher that that.

Jost for me 100%.
Stepan has pretty much averaged 50+ points every season save for his rookie season (lockout season he had 44 points in 48 games) while being a really good two-way centre.

If Jost can turn into that for us, I'll be thrilled. I don't see his potential being higher than that, because then you start getting into Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews category and those are the elite of the elite in terms of those types of players. Temper expectations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
When he's on top of his game, yes, but most of the time I'm not sure I'd consider him a legit 1D...
Letang is as legitimate as they come when he's healthy. I don't know if I've seen a defensemen dominate an entire playoffs the way he did in 2016 in a long, long time. IMO it was more impressive than what Doughty did during the Kings' 2012 and 2014 Cup runs.

I used to be down on Letang but that was prior to Mike Sullivan coming aboard. He was still really good, but he was making a lot of dumb decisions with the puck during the latter years of Bylsma and under Mike Johnston. Now? He's a top-flight #1D

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07-06-2017, 05:33 PM
  #97
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Extremely close between Makar and Jost. Ultimately went Jost just because he's a little more polished and more proven. But the potential on Makar is extremely high and depending on how his year goes this year he could be the "AINEC" #1 very soon.


Also gotta give some love to Compher. He's definitely behind these two, but as has been mentioned a couple times already he's IMO the prospect most likely to get significant NHL minutes and games this season and I think he really will excel with this opportunity and build on the ending he had last year. Would not at all be surprised to see him hit ~45 points in a Top 6 role next year.

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07-06-2017, 05:50 PM
  #98
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+1 to pierce. My reasoning as well

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07-06-2017, 06:26 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by dahrougem2 View Post
Stepan has pretty much averaged 50+ points every season save for his rookie season (lockout season he had 44 points in 48 games) while being a really good two-way centre.

If Jost can turn into that for us, I'll be thrilled. I don't see his potential being higher than that, because then you start getting into Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews category and those are the elite of the elite in terms of those types of players. Temper expectations.
True, like I said if he levels off as a Stepan level player that's awesome, but purely potential wise I think it's higher. Not Kopitar/Bergeron level higher, but if everything goes perfectly I could see him being a 60-65~ point guy. Center version of Parise.

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07-06-2017, 06:35 PM
  #100
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Interesting how the main board voted them back to back and Jost ahead of Makar.

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