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Grubauer 1 year 1.5 mil AAV

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Old
07-06-2017, 10:31 AM
  #1
hockeykicker
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Grubauer 1 year 1.5 mil AAV


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Old
07-06-2017, 10:33 AM
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Skinnyjimmy08
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so cheap

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Old
07-06-2017, 10:33 AM
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Roughing
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Trade him.

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07-06-2017, 10:41 AM
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AlexBrovechkin8
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Hopefully this drives up his trade value.

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07-06-2017, 10:42 AM
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twabby
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Wonder if he's a Capital the entire season or if they are able to make a trade in-season to a team whose goalie gets injured.

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07-06-2017, 10:45 AM
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Efactor
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Traded before the season starts. I would be shocked if he is on the opening roster.

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07-06-2017, 10:47 AM
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Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by twabby View Post
Wonder if he's a Capital the entire season or if they are able to make a trade in-season to a team whose goalie gets injured.
If he's here the whole season then GMBM really has no plan.

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07-06-2017, 10:48 AM
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hockeykicker
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Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
If he's here the whole season then GMBM really has no plan.
What goalie market is there?

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Old
07-06-2017, 10:51 AM
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trick9
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He's not going to get traded now.

He shouldn't either. Expansion draft ruined the goalie market.

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07-06-2017, 10:56 AM
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strungout
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Plus with young D coming up...they will need two legit goalies.

This is fine.

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07-06-2017, 11:05 AM
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Langway
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trick9 View Post
He's not going to get traded now.

He shouldn't either. Expansion draft ruined the goalie market.
Yeah, zero reason to move him for now unless they can get amazing value. The $850k difference between Grubauer and Copley doesn't come anywhere close to make it worthwhile from a cap savings standpoint. Better to keep Grubauer in the hopes that the market opens up next off-season at least.

Edit: Based on CapFriendly's AGM, they have 573,227 for net upgrades on a 22-player roster including Walker, Stephenson, Smith-Pelly, Bowey & Djoos. You've got to assume they'll go with a 22-player roster then but they could sign one $1M vet to replace one of those younger players and remain cap compliant.


Last edited by Langway: 07-06-2017 at 11:34 AM.
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Old
07-06-2017, 11:05 AM
  #12
Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
What goalie market is there?
Does it matter? Realistically what are our chances of affording him next season?

Even if at the TDL all you can get is a bag of old jocks you take it or you lose him for nothing.

Next off season we will have 0 leverage in trading his contract, teams will know we cannot afford him/don't want him for another season and we will get half of that bag of jocks.

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07-06-2017, 11:07 AM
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hockeykicker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
Does it matter? Realistically what are our chances of affording him next season?

Even if at the TDL all you can get is a bag of old jocks you take it or you lose him for nothing.

Next off season we will have 0 leverage in trading his contract, teams will know we cannot afford him/don't want him for another season and we will get half of that bag of jocks.
He is an rfa next year. They aren't losing him for nothing

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07-06-2017, 11:12 AM
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Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
He is an rfa next year. They aren't losing him for nothing
Right, but we only get a compensatory pick if someone else offers him so him being an RFA is somewhat pointless since we can't afford to resign him next season.

As a team interested why would you offer sheet him? You know WSH cannot afford to resign him and therefore needs a trade, so what would you offer? Crap on crap because again WSH has zero leverage, they cannot afford to keep him, they have to take whatever you offer.


I'm not advocating for trading him ASAP, I think his value will peak during the season near the TDL. I think it's a mistake if you do not move him before the TDL. If you're trying to maximize the return on Grubauer it's very clear that it drops tremendously after the TDL. There will be a team desperate to bolster their goal situation around the TDL, that will be when you can get the best return.

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:13 AM
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hockeykicker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
Right, but we only get a compensatory pick if someone else offers him so him being an RFA is somewhat pointless since we can't afford to resign him next season.

As a team interested why would you offer sheet him? You know WSH cannot afford to resign him and therefore needs a trade, so what would you offer? Crap on crap because again WSH has zero leverage, they cannot afford to keep him, they have to take whatever you offer.


I'm not advocating for trading him ASAP, I think his value will peak during the season near the TDL. I think it's a mistake if you do not move him before the TDL. If you're trying to maximize the return on Grubauer it's very clear that it drops tremendously after the TDL.
Next year they have eller, beagle, Carlson and Chorney as ufa and Grubauer and Wilson as rfa. More then enough cap space

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07-06-2017, 11:18 AM
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Langway
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
I think it's a mistake if you do not move him before the TDL. If you're trying to maximize the return on Grubauer it's very clear that it drops tremendously after the TDL.
Eh, not really. That's really hard to conclude without knowing the market then or what may open up the following off-season. There's also the additional value the Caps receive in keeping him past the trade deadline. I expect him on the team for the entire season unless some miraculous trade option comes about and even then the added roster value coming back is likely not going to outweigh keeping him in terms of near-term value. It's far too early to conclude they won't be able to afford him the year after. He'd likely only see a $500k raise or $1M at most unless gets a load more games due to injury so that doesn't inherently make him too costly. They should look to move him next summer but it's not inconceivable that they just keep him on the roster for the next two years even and he becomes another UFA loss.

It depends on the market going forward. You can bet he wants a chance to start elsewhere but there's not much to be done about it for the time being. Either way, they're unlikely to panic sell given the value they do get from him as a very capable back-up.

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:22 AM
  #17
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Unless the team is out of playoff contention by the deadline, there is no way they sell off their backup goalie. The only caveat is if an injury forces Copley into the lineup and he shows well for a decent stretch of games. They risk flushing the whole season down the drain for just a mid-round pick if Holtby gets hurt after the TDL in that scenario.

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07-06-2017, 11:25 AM
  #18
Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
Next year they have eller, beagle, Carlson and Chorney as ufa and Grubauer and Wilson as rfa. More then enough cap space
More than enough is a bit of a stretch. You let Chorney, Eller, and Beagle walk and you're dealing with roughly $6.5 in excess cap from where you are right now (assuming they use the remainder of their cap this season) to give Carlson and Wilson raises. From there I don't think the top priority of the team is going to be re-upping our back up goalie to a contract that's also due for a raise.


I don't know if I see Grubauer patiently taking another one year cheap deal especially when you see guys like Scott Darling receiving $4.1 million contracts.

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:28 AM
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hockeykicker
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Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
More than enough is a bit of a stretch. You let Chorney, Eller, and Beagle walk and you're dealing with roughly $6.5 in excess cap from where you are right now (assuming they use the remainder of their cap this season) to give Carlson and Wilson raises. From there I don't think the top priority of the team is going to be re-upping our back up goalie to a contract that's also due for a raise.


I don't know if I see Grubauer patiently taking another one year cheap deal especially when you see guys like Scott Darling receiving $4.1 million contracts.
Right but your saying they had no chance and they had to trade him. They have the cap space to sign him and besides, he is an rfa again and no arbitration person would give him anywhere close to darling

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07-06-2017, 11:37 AM
  #20
Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
Right but your saying they had no chance and they had to trade him. They have the cap space to sign him and besides, he is an rfa again and no arbitration person would give him anywhere close to darling
Isn't the majority of arbitration done through comparing stats to existing contracts in the league? (Honest question)


I think if he goes to arbitration he has a good leg to stand on in terms of his stats and the other contracts handed out to goalies statistically comparable. He might not get Darling money, but he'll get bank.

Again though, the point becomes his value becomes overwhelmingly decreased the moment the TDL passes because are the Capitals going to actually resign him? (Hopefully) No, teams realize we likely don't do this song and dance again so they have some leverage. Ideally the team gives him a healthy amount of starts this season (I'd like to see what 50/50 gets us) and from there we can reassess his value to trade or keep.


Regardless of the vision, this organization needs to give him more time and more legitimate opponents.

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:40 AM
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hockeykicker
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Originally Posted by Skrudland2Lomakin View Post
Isn't the majority of arbitration done through comparing stats to existing contracts in the league? (Honest question)


I think if he goes to arbitration he has a good leg to stand on in terms of his stats and the other contracts handed out to goalies statistically comparable. He might not get Darling money, but he'll get bank.

Again though, the point becomes his value becomes overwhelmingly decreased the moment the TDL passes because are the Capitals going to actually resign him? (Hopefully) No, teams realize we likely don't do this song and dance again so they have some leverage. Ideally the team gives him a healthy amount of starts this season (I'd like to see what 50/50 gets us) and from there we can reassess his value to trade or keep.


Regardless of the vision, this organization needs to give him more time and more legitimate opponents.
But he is a backup goalie and darling as a starter isn't gonna be compared to Grubauer

Also if he goes to arbitration caps can say ok we want a two year deal and then caps get two years instead of one where Grubauer (if he wants to leave) is stuck with an extra year

So for Grubauer it's gonna be take what Washington gives you or go to arbitration and likely lose and Washington gets an extra year of Grubauer

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:43 AM
  #22
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Now GMBM will pull the biggest stunner of all and trade Holtby (hehe)

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Old
07-06-2017, 11:46 AM
  #23
Langway
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
But he is a backup goalie and darling as a starter isn't gonna be compared to Grubauer
Darling also signed as a pending UFA so he's not a comparable player. Grubauer can only be compared to RFA signings and RFA back-ups aren't going to be very lucrative comps unless, say, they signed without a great deal of experience (like Martin Jones) prior to being made a starter.

The Caps would be restricted to a one-year deal a year from now should arbitration be necessary (since that's his last remaining RFA season).

(I revised my numbers above after noticing my template didn't have Burakovsky's final number so it's a bit tighter. There's some flexibility remaining, although they may prefer banking cap space and keeping a spot open for Gersich in the spring. My guess is unless they're totally convinced that one of Campbell/Beauchemin/Oduya can be a very solid 2LD for them that they'll just roll with what they've got and re-assess.)

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07-06-2017, 11:47 AM
  #24
Skrudland2Lomakin
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Originally Posted by hockeykicker View Post
But he is a backup goalie and darling as a starter isn't gonna be compared to Grubauer

Also if he goes to arbitration caps can say ok we want a two year deal and then caps get two years instead of one where Grubauer (if he wants to leave) is stuck with an extra year

So for Grubauer it's gonna be take what Washington gives you or go to arbitration and likely lose and Washington gets an extra year of Grubauer
Darling wasn't a starter when signed that deal and I think that would be camp Grubauers argument. We arguably are holding a starter hostage because he's an RFA and I'm not sure the arbitrator would declare Grubauer is worth less because we arbitrarily assign him the roll of backup. If we snuck Kuznetzov down to the 4th line an arbitrator wouldn't say "Yeah, but he's a 4th line guy so he'll be paid 4th line dollars." It's Washingtons fault/responsibility/incentive/prerogative to use talent in whatever role they want, doesn't mean they get to pay them to that level though.


Currently Darling and Grubs that have pretty identical stats aside from Darling having a few more games and Grubauer having a lower GAA.

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Old
07-06-2017, 12:53 PM
  #25
BiPolar Caps
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Holtby with 63 game starts last season vs. Grubauer's 19. Trotz needs to increase Grubauer's workload this season, with something like 32 to 34 game starts and reduce Holtby down to around 48 or 50. More game's for Grubauer, pumps up his value by showcasing him and also helps Holtby by lightening his work load. I can see Gruby having a high value come TDL.

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