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Old
07-11-2017, 04:07 PM
  #26
Osprey
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FWIW, only one player (Barrie) out of 25 in the whole league actually made it to arbitration last year and even he was signed before the verdict was announced. I think that, generally, only a few players go through it every year. It's something that both sides tend to really want to avoid.

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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
there really isn't any way to get "murdered" in arbitration because the most youre on the hook for is one year no matter how bad the number seems to be

Even if an arbiter awarded Arvy 6 mil for next year that wouldn't kill us. And if he only scores 15 goals next year nobody will give him 5 or 6 million in his next contract, he'll have to settle for a lot less if he wants any term, and if he scores 30 again he will be worth a 6 million dollar long term deal
You appear to be basically saying that it's impossible to win or lose an arbitration because it's only for a year or two. There are absolutely winners and losers, IMO. If Arvidsson were to be awarded over $5M, that would certainly mean that Poile lost the arbitration. You can always spin the loss as not that hurtful, because the pain doesn't last too long, but it's still a loss and Poile would, ideally, like to avoid it, which was my point.


Last edited by Osprey: 07-11-2017 at 04:14 PM.
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07-11-2017, 04:43 PM
  #27
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I think we have had one or two players go to arb and sign deals before the arb award was announced.

As for Weber, he got over it just fine by sticking it to us with the offer sheet the next year.

But the Weber situation was unique. The team requested arbitration. Weber was going to look for his offer sheet that summer, but the team at the time didn't have the financial stability to match, and so team requested arbitration because that was what was needed to secure Weber for one more year.

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07-11-2017, 04:45 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osprey View Post
FWIW, only one player (Barrie) out of 25 in the whole league actually made it to arbitration last year and even he was signed before the verdict was announced. I think that, generally, only a few players go through it every year. It's something that both sides tend to really want to avoid.



You appear to be basically saying that it's impossible to win or lose an arbitration because it's only for a year or two. There are absolutely winners and losers, IMO. If Arvidsson were to be awarded over $5M, that would certainly mean that Poile lost the arbitration. You can always spin the loss as not that hurtful, because the pain doesn't last too long, but it's still a loss and Poile would, ideally, like to avoid it, which was my point.
no, I said Poile wouldn't get "Murdered" which would require having to pay Arvy way over market value for many years. Its not possible to get "Murdered" on a one year deal when you have plenty of cap space

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07-11-2017, 05:42 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
no, I said Poile wouldn't get "Murdered" which would require having to pay Arvy way over market value for many years. Its not possible to get "Murdered" on a one year deal when you have plenty of cap space
If Arvidsson won and got his 5+ million or whatever on a one year deal, his qualifying offer would be at least that high and he could just accept his QO each year if he wanted. It's not a good scenario, but they'll likely get it figured out prior to arbitration, Arvidsson doesn't seem like the type to play hardball to me.

I'm also pretty sure both Smith and Wilson had their hearings and were signed to long term deals prior to the decision coming out.

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07-11-2017, 06:40 PM
  #30
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There is a player or two that file every year. I can think of only once, Weber, where it made it all the way to the hearing.

Poile and Kimmo came to terms in the elevator on the way to the hearing. I'm sure until Weber that was the closest it had come to reaching the hearing.

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07-11-2017, 08:51 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belle View Post
There is a player or two that file every year. I can think of only once, Weber, where it made it all the way to the hearing.

Poile and Kimmo came to terms in the elevator on the way to the hearing. I'm sure until Weber that was the closest it had come to reaching the hearing.
Like I said, I'm pretty sure both Smith and Wilson had their hearing but agreed to a contract prior to the decision.

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07-11-2017, 10:06 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belle View Post
There is a player or two that file every year. I can think of only once, Weber, where it made it all the way to the hearing.

Poile and Kimmo came to terms in the elevator on the way to the hearing. I'm sure until Weber that was the closest it had come to reaching the hearing.
Scott Walker and Denny Lambert both had hearings.

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Old
07-12-2017, 02:34 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Osprey View Post
Poile would likely get murdered in arbitration. Even if a player has had only one good season, an arbitrated contract is for only a year or two, so the arbiter is inclined to award the player his value for that one season, sort of like a "make up" for being underpaid that season. In other words, an arbiter is liable to award Arvidsson over $5M because that's what 60-point players are worth, especially ones that lead their teams in scoring. The arbiter is not going to really factor in whether it was a fluke season and whether he can sustain that production for the next 5 years, since it's not really his job to be a judge of talent. I'm not sure if an arbiter even needs to know anything about hockey.
Quote:
The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.


https://www.thoughtco.com/g00/nhl-sa...w.google.fi%2F

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07-12-2017, 08:03 AM
  #34
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I thought Wilson and Smith did. Other than that, I don't know. I just seem to remember those two.
Wilson signed a pre-arbitration deal. Smith went through arbitration but never took the 1 year money because Poile signed him long term the day after. Weber is the only one that took the arbitration award and then we all know what happened the next year.

I'll be shocked if either Arvy or Watson actually get that far.

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07-12-2017, 08:15 AM
  #35
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Just curious of Arvy goes, what must come back?

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07-12-2017, 08:19 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
Just curious of Arvy goes, what must come back?


A **** ton of goals. That would be Neal and Arvy gone.

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07-12-2017, 08:50 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
Just curious of Arvy goes, what must come back?
I don't see us trading Arvidsson.

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07-12-2017, 08:53 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I don't see us trading Arvidsson.
If he wants 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million, we may.

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07-12-2017, 10:13 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
If he wants 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million 6 million, we may.
If he gets awarded that, he gets it.

He won't be traded.

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07-12-2017, 10:44 AM
  #40
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Buffalo fan coming in peace. I got fed up debating with fellow Buffalo fans about this so want to ask you for your realistic opinion.

In case your GM is prepared to degrade to some extend your D core for F help what trade would you accept around Ekholm for McCabe. Of course McCabe is not on Ekholm's level - he is more of 4D right now rather than a 2D that Ekholm is. He does have some top pairing upside but probably remains a career 2nd pairing D and would probably require a similar contract to what you have on Ekholm now when it comes to extending his current cheap contract.

I realize you may not be keen to trade Ekholm (I love the guy too and I love you team for sure), but in theory what could work value wise and need-wise realistically? I will not argue back, just asking the question

Trade-able forward assets we have:
E Kane - consistent 30 goal pace power forward with some injury history and bad hockey IQ and defensive game. Can probably be extentented in the region of 5.5-6mil per
A Nylender - Wing prospect. Likely still 1 year away from contributing meaningfully at NHL level. Project as top 9 forward (where exactly is too early to tell)
R Asplund - very impressive two-way C prospect. Likely 1 year away from making a roster full time. Projects as middle 6 center
S Reinhart - ex no 2 pick that has put up good numbers and good possession stats in a crap system here in Buffalo. Has not been tested at Center but that's the position suitable for skillset. Lacks a bit of speed and explosiveness, but has everything else
Z Girgensons/J Larsson - cheap bottom 6 centers still under team control. Quite good defensively and very hard workers but don't expect big numbers from them

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07-12-2017, 10:53 AM
  #41
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Poile has repeatedly said our top 4 D is not available. So it would take a really strong offer to pry Eks away.

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07-12-2017, 10:58 AM
  #42
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I didn't really know where to put this so I'm just putting it here.


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07-12-2017, 11:31 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CacOBG View Post
Buffalo fan coming in peace. I got fed up debating with fellow Buffalo fans about this so want to ask you for your realistic opinion.

In case your GM is prepared to degrade to some extend your D core for F help what trade would you accept around Ekholm for McCabe. Of course McCabe is not on Ekholm's level - he is more of 4D right now rather than a 2D that Ekholm is. He does have some top pairing upside but probably remains a career 2nd pairing D and would probably require a similar contract to what you have on Ekholm now when it comes to extending his current cheap contract.

I realize you may not be keen to trade Ekholm (I love the guy too and I love you team for sure), but in theory what could work value wise and need-wise realistically? I will not argue back, just asking the question

Trade-able forward assets we have:
E Kane - consistent 30 goal pace power forward with some injury history and bad hockey IQ and defensive game. Can probably be extentented in the region of 5.5-6mil per
A Nylender - Wing prospect. Likely still 1 year away from contributing meaningfully at NHL level. Project as top 9 forward (where exactly is too early to tell)
R Asplund - very impressive two-way C prospect. Likely 1 year away from making a roster full time. Projects as middle 6 center
S Reinhart - ex no 2 pick that has put up good numbers and good possession stats in a crap system here in Buffalo. Has not been tested at Center but that's the position suitable for skillset. Lacks a bit of speed and explosiveness, but has everything else
Z Girgensons/J Larsson - cheap bottom 6 centers still under team control. Quite good defensively and very hard workers but don't expect big numbers from them
RR would need to play LHD for me to downgrade from Ekholm to McCabe.

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Old
07-12-2017, 12:03 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CacOBG View Post
Buffalo fan coming in peace. I got fed up debating with fellow Buffalo fans about this so want to ask you for your realistic opinion.

In case your GM is prepared to degrade to some extend your D core for F help what trade would you accept around Ekholm for McCabe. Of course McCabe is not on Ekholm's level - he is more of 4D right now rather than a 2D that Ekholm is. He does have some top pairing upside but probably remains a career 2nd pairing D and would probably require a similar contract to what you have on Ekholm now when it comes to extending his current cheap contract.

I realize you may not be keen to trade Ekholm (I love the guy too and I love you team for sure), but in theory what could work value wise and need-wise realistically? I will not argue back, just asking the question

Trade-able forward assets we have:
E Kane - consistent 30 goal pace power forward with some injury history and bad hockey IQ and defensive game. Can probably be extentented in the region of 5.5-6mil per
A Nylender - Wing prospect. Likely still 1 year away from contributing meaningfully at NHL level. Project as top 9 forward (where exactly is too early to tell)
R Asplund - very impressive two-way C prospect. Likely 1 year away from making a roster full time. Projects as middle 6 center
S Reinhart - ex no 2 pick that has put up good numbers and good possession stats in a crap system here in Buffalo. Has not been tested at Center but that's the position suitable for skillset. Lacks a bit of speed and explosiveness, but has everything else
Z Girgensons/J Larsson - cheap bottom 6 centers still under team control. Quite good defensively and very hard workers but don't expect big numbers from them
Wait you didn't want to trade Nylander and McCabe (Granted with a 2018 1st rounder as well, but you made it sound like you thought Nylander was the most valuable piece) for Brodie, but you're fine with trading for Ekholm, whereas the only time Ekholm has outperformed Brodie in their entire career is in the 2017 playoffs which even then in the 1st round speaking Brodie was more valuable to his team than Ekholm was because Subban was even better, and Brodie did a lot of heavy lifting. Besides Nashville really doesn't need another RHS forward anymore, so even though I doubt the Flames would accept the deal proposed by La Costra Da Nostra, I'd say Nashville declines even more.

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Old
07-12-2017, 12:11 PM
  #45
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I didn't really know where to put this so I'm just putting it here.

You should get this on the main board. Get that pot stirring. It is July after all....

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Old
07-12-2017, 12:13 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
I didn't really know where to put this so I'm just putting it here.

It is just a crying shame he isn't a UFA this summer

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Old
07-12-2017, 12:41 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Soundgarden View Post
RR would need to play LHD for me to downgrade from Ekholm to McCabe.
Guess this is some sarcastic statement but I don't get it. What is RR? For future reference you know..As I said I come in peace, if it's a no, it's a no

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Old
07-12-2017, 12:55 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
no, I said Poile wouldn't get "Murdered" which would require having to pay Arvy way over market value for many years. Its not possible to get "Murdered" on a one year deal when you have plenty of cap space
You're parsing words. I just meant that Poile could lose convincingly. You may as well argue that he wouldn't get "murdered" because he'd still be alive after the hearing.

Thanks for the correction.

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Old
07-12-2017, 01:24 PM
  #49
Drake744
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Originally Posted by CacOBG View Post
Guess this is some sarcastic statement but I don't get it. What is RR? For future reference you know..As I said I come in peace, if it's a no, it's a no
I'm assuming it was a Ristolainen reference but I don't totally get it either. I thought I did, but I don't.

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Old
07-12-2017, 02:08 PM
  #50
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I didn't really know where to put this so I'm just putting it here.

how did we not see this two months ago? lol

Certainly, through trade or free agency he's going to end up in Nashville.

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