HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Nashville Predators
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Off-Season Part 二 (Ni)

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-14-2017, 08:56 PM
  #76
FierceFalcon
**** Chicago
 
FierceFalcon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Murfreesboro
Country: United States
Posts: 24
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeauxPreds View Post
Whoa I beat someone to the username punch, sorry for the offtopic post but I was flabbergasted
Laaaaaame. One of you has to change it.

FierceFalcon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-14-2017, 08:59 PM
  #77
Legionnaire11
#2 Draft Pick
 
Legionnaire11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Smashville
Country: United States
Posts: 5,163
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeauxPreds View Post
Whoa I beat someone to the username punch, sorry for the offtopic post but I was flabbergasted
I assume you had lost your password and registered a new username!

Now it's just awkward...

Legionnaire11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-15-2017, 04:00 PM
  #78
GeauxPreds1
Rookie User
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 58
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeauxPreds View Post
Whoa I beat someone to the username punch, sorry for the offtopic post but I was flabbergasted
Geaux Tigers lol

GeauxPreds1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-16-2017, 11:55 AM
  #79
Vali Maki Sushi
Tuna Vali Maki Roll
 
Vali Maki Sushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pingtung City
Country: Taiwan
Posts: 4,494
vCash: 500
I don't get where the Ellis was our best defensive player in 2016-2017 came from.



Ellis was our worst high danger impact Dman in our top 4. He had the worst advanced stats as well. His shooting percentage was massively inflated and overall he had a dominant season, but he wasn't as good as some people make him out to be.

So basically with his contract ending the earliest, him being the cheapest, when would be a time to look exploring trading him?

Vali Maki Sushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-16-2017, 11:59 AM
  #80
GeauxPreds1
Rookie User
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 58
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
I don't get where the Ellis was our best defensive player in 2016-2017 came from.



Ellis was our worst high danger impact Dman in our top 4. He had the worst advanced stats as well. His shooting percentage was massively inflated and overall he had a dominant season, but he wasn't as good as some people make him out to be.

So basically with his contract ending the earliest, him being the cheapest, when would be a time to look exploring trading him?
I agree. I love having Ellis on our team but if we can package him for duchene I would not be upset at all

GeauxPreds1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-16-2017, 08:30 PM
  #81
RickP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 311
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
I don't get where the Ellis was our best defensive player in 2016-2017 came from.



Ellis was our worst high danger impact Dman in our top 4. He had the worst advanced stats as well. His shooting percentage was massively inflated and overall he had a dominant season, but he wasn't as good as some people make him out to be.

So basically with his contract ending the earliest, him being the cheapest, when would be a time to look exploring trading him?
His "regular" stats are impressive though. 16 goals, + 17. Yes, advanced stats give a better idea of how well or not a player has performed, but you have to give him credit for scoring so many goals and overall, not letting too many goals in when he was on the ice.

But I agree with your point overall, he's the most expendable of the top 4 in my opinion. Maybe trading him would be an option, but I assume Poile would have done it by now. The more they wait before trading him, the more his value will drop since he'll be a UFA in 2 years.

RickP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-16-2017, 10:15 PM
  #82
Vali Maki Sushi
Tuna Vali Maki Roll
 
Vali Maki Sushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pingtung City
Country: Taiwan
Posts: 4,494
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickP View Post
His "regular" stats are impressive though. 16 goals, + 17. Yes, advanced stats give a better idea of how well or not a player has performed, but you have to give him credit for scoring so many goals and overall, not letting too many goals in when he was on the ice.

But I agree with your point overall, he's the most expendable of the top 4 in my opinion. Maybe trading him would be an option, but I assume Poile would have done it by now. The more they wait before trading him, the more his value will drop since he'll be a UFA in 2 years.
I give him credit where it's due, he's an awesome player, but at the same time I think people are giving him way too much credit more so than he deserves at times.

Vali Maki Sushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-17-2017, 10:04 AM
  #83
Drake744
Tennessweden
 
Drake744's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Nashville
Posts: 9,566
vCash: 344
Shoutout to ESPN's Free Agency Tracker for saying Jonathan Bernier's team last season was LA depsite not playing for them since 2013. Well done as always by them.

Drake744 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-17-2017, 10:37 AM
  #84
Legionnaire11
#2 Draft Pick
 
Legionnaire11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Smashville
Country: United States
Posts: 5,163
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post
I give him credit where it's due, he's an awesome player, but at the same time I think people are giving him way too much credit more so than he deserves at times.
I don't, he was very good last season and you have to consider that he was asked to step up in Shea Weber's role and there wasn't a huge drop-off from Weber to Ellis.

Many of these advanced stats are starting to seem more like the creators are molding them to fit their narrative of "I'm going to prove that the bad players are better than you think and the good players are worse than you think" which is basically a mirror of trends in technology and specifically social media (which all of these advanced stat guys came out of blogs) to make us question everything we see and tell us that everything we knew is wrong, we're using everything incorrectly, etc, etc... all for clicks which translate to dollars.

I mean, it makes for nice graphs and generates discussion. But it seems to be getting much when a group of fans can watch a player for 82 games and come to a consensus on what type of player he is, and then an advanced stat graph comes out saying otherwise, which one is more likely to be correct? I'll go with watching the players play vs plugging numbers into a formula to tell me that what I saw was wrong.

Legionnaire11 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-17-2017, 11:00 AM
  #85
Vali Maki Sushi
Tuna Vali Maki Roll
 
Vali Maki Sushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pingtung City
Country: Taiwan
Posts: 4,494
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
I don't, he was very good last season and you have to consider that he was asked to step up in Shea Weber's role and there wasn't a huge drop-off from Weber to Ellis.

Many of these advanced stats are starting to seem more like the creators are molding them to fit their narrative of "I'm going to prove that the bad players are better than you think and the good players are worse than you think" which is basically a mirror of trends in technology and specifically social media (which all of these advanced stat guys came out of blogs) to make us question everything we see and tell us that everything we knew is wrong, we're using everything incorrectly, etc, etc... all for clicks which translate to dollars.

I mean, it makes for nice graphs and generates discussion. But it seems to be getting much when a group of fans can watch a player for 82 games and come to a consensus on what type of player he is, and then an advanced stat graph comes out saying otherwise, which one is more likely to be correct? I'll go with watching the players play vs plugging numbers into a formula to tell me that what I saw was wrong.
Thing is a lot of times advanced stats support eye test. For example truly elite defensive players have excellent advanced stats (And especially suppression stats). Of course it's not always the case I agree. One major example is goaltending.

Rinne is known for the last few seasons to have a negative adjusted save percentage, while Pavelec of all goalies has a positive. That kinda puts things in perspective doesn't it? Yes Nashville's blueline and overall defense is better than Winnipeg's. However when Pavelec has clearly always posted worse numbers and at times way worse than Rinne, how in the world can he have a positive adjusted save percentage? Well here's the thing, most shot types are only distance based, which alone isn't the best. I don't think advanced stats track angles, deflections, types of shot, heck I don't even think speed is tracked. From what I know they definitely don't track screens nor one timers. Also goalies can absolutely influence their advanced stats. It's absolutely proven. A goalie that has excellent rebound control and puck moving naturally suppresses more shots and being a great puck mover means suppressing high danger chances as you eliminate cycle and forecheck (Of course elite transition teams will still find ways to generate high danger chances, and prevent puck moving goalies from doing their jobs). Positioning plays a factor as well. Rebounds are also counted, and the more rebound shots you face the worse your expected stats are supposed to be. However, that's just the dam* thing. Rebounds have a lot to do with goalies as well. So basically an elite puck freezer like Rinne will obviously be negatively impacted by advanced stats just because he faces less rebound shots than most goalies. Then because he's such a great puck mover, along with rebound control, he not only faces less shots in total but also high danger chances. So basically Rinne's amazing abilities that help the team hinder his adjusted save percentage? Really advanced stats committee. Pavelec is the compelte opposite. I don't think there's a single goalie in league history who's rebound control, puck abilities, and positioning is worse. Jets fans get extreme heart attacks watching him play and how he'll do some of the dumbest stuff with the puck or opt not to freeze a puck that's like already in his glove (Okay maybe exaggerating there). So awesome that somehow he makes saves from causing dangerous chances himself, that really doesn't mean much when his stats overall are terrible, and he gives up a ton of bad goals.

Vali Maki Sushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-17-2017, 11:14 AM
  #86
token grinder
Facts Get Deleted
 
token grinder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Alleged Mod Abuser
Country: United States
Posts: 4,999
vCash: 500
I prefer using my eyeballs over a bunch of stats.

My eyeballs told me up until about March we had guys getting used to playing together or hurt. My eyeballs also told me time and again a forward would be watching his man rather than backcheck.

My eyeballs also told me that Rinne doesn't move post to post as quickly as he used to and he made himself smaller on bad angle shots for some reason.

All those things lead to goals against.

Offensively there was also an adjustment period at ES, but Ellis was dynamite on the PP and was the benefactor of teams not wanting Subban to shoot.

token grinder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 12:26 AM
  #87
Armourboy
Registered User
 
Armourboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Shelbyville, TN
Posts: 4,352
vCash: 500
Here is the stat that matters, David Poile isn't moving Ellis, end of discussion.

Armourboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 06:13 AM
  #88
Gh24
Registered User
 
Gh24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 531
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
Here is the stat that matters, David Poile isn't moving Ellis, end of discussion.
What if he is?

Gh24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 08:49 AM
  #89
Armourboy
Registered User
 
Armourboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Shelbyville, TN
Posts: 4,352
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gh24 View Post
What if he is?
He isn't, he already said so, unless " I'm not moving any of the top 4" means something totally different than it normally does.

Armourboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 09:49 AM
  #90
Mortiest Morty
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
He isn't, he already said so, unless " I'm not moving any of the top 4" means something totally different than it normally does.
"I'll never trade Shea Weber" and "I'm not moving Seth Jones" certainly meant something different...

Everyone is available for the right price.

Mortiest Morty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 11:27 AM
  #91
Adz
Eudora Wannabe
 
Adz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hermitage TN
Country: United States
Posts: 4,158
vCash: 500
David Poile is a liar. It's part of his job and he's good at it.

I cheer for the laundry, but I wish Joey would go ahead and sign--if he does he's my next jersey name (but I have a back up)

Adz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 12:57 PM
  #92
Scoresberg
Golden Era Preds
 
Scoresberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Oulu
Country: Finland
Posts: 3,044
vCash: 500
I like the Bonino signing, I kinda like the Hartnell signing but it is really hard to say that we are better than last year. Yes, our D will be better, and our center core is better than last year, Fisher was bad in the playoffs I prefer Bonino over him.

BUT, here comes the but, Rinne will be reg.season Rinne again and our wing depth sucks.. we lost a proven 20-30g scorer in Neal, when we should've given LV Jarny, wouldn't have hurt our center depth that much with Gaudreau or Sissons as the 3C. We lost Willy who was a proven 30-40p player. We got Hartnell, but he's 35, he doesn't have the foot speed he's not a top-6 guy anymore which Neal and Wilson were. Aberg showed some signs but we rely too much on him to succeed. A lot relies on Smith, too, him to have a bounce back year. I liked what I saw in Fiala but he, again, might or might not thrive.

Now on the trades, I've been having some time off hockey, or the boards to be exact:

Emelin for a 3rd

Doesn't hurt but doesn't do much, either. If we tried to save money on Willy we took it back in Emelin. Frankly, we don't need him - Irwin and Weber did just fine. Emelin is not a really good player, certainly doesn't fit our system with the defense.

Wilson for a 4th

WHAT. Was my reaction, I love Willy as a player, he's strong with the puck a good possession player helps the team a lot more than points. I would've given Smith for that price, but not Willy. Wasn't the beast in the poffs like past years, but he was good and produced some. Poile really killed our wing depth here: Forsberg-Fiala-Wilson-Aberg and Arvidsson-Smith-Hartnell-Watson on the wings would've been a killer. On top of that we lost Neal, too this summer. Furthermore, we gave him for a 4th?? Reaves fetched a 1st, Johansson a 2nd and a 3rd. WTF Poile, and on top of that to a division rival?? Watch him have a good year. I'm more angry about this trade than losing Neal.

So, to sum it up, my thoughts on the offseason:

+Our center core is better.
+I see our defense being better, when they've had the run they had and been together for a year

-Our wing depth took a huge hit, lost a lot of scoring
-We again rely too much on the young guns who are too unproven, too many question marks, and with Rinne being reg.season Rinne we need more scoring

Overall, it's hard to say that we're any better than last season.

Scoresberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 03:22 PM
  #93
Armourboy
Registered User
 
Armourboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Shelbyville, TN
Posts: 4,352
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
"I'll never trade Shea Weber" and "I'm not moving Seth Jones" certainly meant something different...

Everyone is available for the right price.
He traded Weber for the exact same piece and got younger, it's the only reason he traded him. Everyone knew Jones was going to be moved it made too much sense.

If he won't move a Dman for a guy like Duchene, I think it's pretty safe to say they will all be here.

Armourboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 03:30 PM
  #94
AdmiralsFan24
Registered User
 
AdmiralsFan24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Wisconsin
Country: United States
Posts: 10,142
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to AdmiralsFan24
Do I think that Poile could trade one of his top 4 defensemen? Yes. Do I think that is happening this season? No.

If the defense prospects advance in their development, I could see next summer getting really interesting with Ellis entering the final year of his contract and Josi not that far behind.

AdmiralsFan24 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 04:20 PM
  #95
Mortiest Morty
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
He traded Weber for the exact same piece and got younger, it's the only reason he traded him. Everyone knew Jones was going to be moved it made too much sense.

If he won't move a Dman for a guy like Duchene, I think it's pretty safe to say they will all be here.
So Poile means it for sure this time, but not the other times? How do you discern when he's really telling the truth?

Colorado reportedly wanted Ekholm. Ekholm is absolutely more valuable than Duchene all things considered. In 2 years Duchene will have his hands out for a raise, probably a big raise and Ekholm will still have multiple years left on his sweetheart deal. Of course Poile didn't want to make that move. Ellis is another story, excellent value for 2 years, but he'll be due for a MASSIVE raise after that.

Mortiest Morty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 05:35 PM
  #96
Armourboy
Registered User
 
Armourboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Shelbyville, TN
Posts: 4,352
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
So Poile means it for sure this time, but not the other times? How do you discern when he's really telling the truth?

Colorado reportedly wanted Ekholm. Ekholm is absolutely more valuable than Duchene all things considered. In 2 years Duchene will have his hands out for a raise, probably a big raise and Ekholm will still have multiple years left on his sweetheart deal. Of course Poile didn't want to make that move. Ellis is another story, excellent value for 2 years, but he'll be due for a MASSIVE raise after that.
It's really not that hard to figure out. The Weber deal he just swapped for a younger Weber. So yes it was a trade, but let's not act like he was moving him for other parts, it was nothing more than a name swap.

Everyone knew the Jones deal was lip service if a #1 C became available. So yes the minute he said it no one really believed it.

This one, if he was going to move a Dman he already would have. Might he move Ellis next season if the stars align and a young guy does ok? Yeah sure, but someone is going to make a pretty big jump this year for that to happen.

Armourboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 05:59 PM
  #97
Mortiest Morty
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
It's really not that hard to figure out.
You're right, it's not hard to figure out at all. What GM's say (or players for that matter), cannot be taken at face value. They're all liars, intentional or otherwise. "End of discussion"

Mortiest Morty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-18-2017, 11:53 PM
  #98
JustaFinnishGuy
Registered User
 
JustaFinnishGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Finland
Country: Finland
Posts: 869
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
It's really not that hard to figure out. The Weber deal he just swapped for a younger Weber. So yes it was a trade, but let's not act like he was moving him for other parts, it was nothing more than a name swap.

Everyone knew the Jones deal was lip service if a #1 C became available. So yes the minute he said it no one really believed it.

This one, if he was going to move a Dman he already would have. Might he move Ellis next season if the stars align and a young guy does ok? Yeah sure, but someone is going to make a pretty big jump this year for that to happen.
Except that The "younger Weber" in PK is nothing like Weber. He's better defensively and offensively (as in driving the play upwards) but a worse shooter. Not a "name swap" in any way.
You don't even need a prospect to shine for Ellis to be traded, If someone wants him bad enough, I believe he's getting enough value back.

JustaFinnishGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-19-2017, 05:22 AM
  #99
Armourboy
Registered User
 
Armourboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Shelbyville, TN
Posts: 4,352
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustaFinnishGuy View Post
Except that The "younger Weber" in PK is nothing like Weber. He's better defensively and offensively (as in driving the play upwards) but a worse shooter. Not a "name swap" in any way.
You don't even need a prospect to shine for Ellis to be traded, If someone wants him bad enough, I believe he's getting enough value back.
If it is it's going to be someone big, after this last run I don't think there is any way he is dropping one of the 4 unless its for something major. If he wasn't willing to for Duchene just what exactly is out there that he would be willing to get rid of Ellis?

It's one thing to say " he could trade him" it's another to look at the reality and figure out what he would trade him for. He won't do it for picks, he won't do it to shed cap, and apparently someone like Duchene isn't enough to do it either. So if there is something to really be discussed someone needs to come up with something more than a hypothetical that has a seriously low chance of happening.

Armourboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-19-2017, 08:55 AM
  #100
Mortiest Morty
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
He won't do it for picks, he won't do it to shed cap, and apparently someone like Duchene isn't enough to do it either. So if there is something to really be discussed someone needs to come up with something more than a hypothetical that has a seriously low chance of happening.
First off, this is a trade board, since when does something need to be likely to happen to be worthy of discussion? Second, I have never once seen Ellis' name mentioned as being of any interest to Colorado, only Ekholm. They already have Johnson, Barrie and plenty of RD prospects (including recent #4 overall Makar), they want a LD.

Mortiest Morty is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:51 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. @2017 All Rights Reserved.