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2017-18 Season Outcome Scenarios

View Poll Results: Which would you pick?
Scenario A 14 25.00%
Scenario B 21 37.50%
Scenario C 21 37.50%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-11-2017, 08:39 AM
  #1
Foppa
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2017-18 Season Outcome Scenarios

Which would be your preference:


SCENARIO A
Points: 60 - an improvement; but still by far the worst team in the league.
Individual Performances: MacK has modest improvement and a 60 point season; same goes for Rantanen. Jost and the rookies are respectable given the situation. But the vets like Varly, EJ, Barrie and even Landy continue to plunge into Duchene-like depression.
Transactions: Sakic deals Duchene but is forced to accept a mediocre Murray+ or Maatta+ offer. He tries to deal vets at the TDL but only manages to acquire a few later picks.
Front Office/Coaching: Everybody is canned after the last game of the year, from Sakic to Bednar to the video guy. A young new GM with a big analytics background is brought in to redo everything. New HC to be determined.
Draft: Despite the worst record again, the Avs still only have a 20% chance of winning the lottery and thus Dahlin and have a better than half chance of not even getting Svechnikov with the #2 pick. New GM makes it known EVERYBODY is available expect Rantanen and Jost...even MacK is on the block, officially. New GM makes it clear he is looking to stockpile assets and that there is no pretense for trying to be competitive in the next few seasons.

SCENARIO B
Points: 85 - a bigly improvement, not good enough for the playoffs but middle of the pack and surpisingly competative
Individual Performances: MacK really ramps it up towards stardom with a 70 point season. Rantanen has a great second year with 60 points and 2-way play. Zads look like a stud, the rookies all look like they belog. Varlamov, EJ, Landeskog and Barrie all have rebound years in terms of playing more towards their expected standards. Nobody is a trophy contender but the overall level of the team is much higher.
Transactions: Sakic deals Duchene but again is forced to accept a mediocre Murray+ or Maatta+ offer. The TDL is pretty quiet as Sakic at least has learned from past mistakes and isn't dealing out 2nd rounders and prospects for rentals.
Front Office/Coaching: After the season, Sakic relinquishes GM duties but maintains a presence in the front office. A solid "hockey guy" like Fenton is hired to be the new GM. A decent season has given Bednar a third year but more will be expected.
Draft: Avs find themselves in that familiar #10 pick range in the first round but the draft is so deep and impressive that the difference after Dahlin/Svech and #10 is not huge - kind of like 2015 with Rantanen. Nobody of the core is really on the block although Fenton/new GM will listen to offers for Barrie and a few others.

SCENARIO C
Points: 100 - everything clicks and the Avs get a top 4 seed and home ice in the playoffs (playoff performance unknown...)
Individual Performances: MacK turns into a superstar with a 40 goal, 80 point beast season. All the younger guys really ramp it up. Varlamov is back to his peak form and is a top 5 goalie in the league. EJ stays healthy and looks like a #1 defender. Barrie churns out 55 points from the blueline.
Transactions: Sakic manages to deal Duchene for Ekholm and it makes all the difference on the blueline as the Avs roll out a very, very good top 4. He deals a mid-tier prospect like Cam Morrison at the TDL for some additional help but keeps all the 2nd rounders and upper crust prospects in the system.
Front Office/Coaching: Sakic stays on as GM, renewed by the surprisingly awsome season. Bednar of course stays now after winning the Jack Adams.
Draft: Avs pick in the second half of the first round but still expect to find a real quality piece in an outstanding draft.

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Old
07-11-2017, 08:42 AM
  #2
LieutenantDangle
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both scenarios gave me a chub.

edit: the poll has 3 scenarios but i only see 2

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07-11-2017, 09:31 AM
  #3
Lonewolfe2015
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I'd like to see something between A & B realistically, even if I wish for C (who wouldn't?). Considering 70 points was good for 2nd in the standings I'm looking for an improvement to the 70-75 point range led by our youth but held back by our depth, defense and coaching. Enough to get rid of Bednar, continue the rebuild but show hope that our young guys can crack it in the NHL.

Ideally a good bit of those points are generated by having great play from Duchene whom we then trade and start sliding back in the rankings.

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Old
07-11-2017, 09:45 AM
  #4
Vaslof
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Of course C, it's the dream world where everything works out perfectly.

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07-11-2017, 10:00 AM
  #5
Ararana
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I whish you'd take the return for Duchene out of these, it's pretty unrelated.

Anyway, scenario B with most of our core players finally finding their game sounds best to me. I don't care too much about the results this year, don't get me wrong winning would be fun, but I'd take positive player development over a high draft pick.

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07-11-2017, 10:01 AM
  #6
Foppa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaslof View Post
Of course C, it's the dream world where everything works out perfectly.
I feel like that answer is not so easy around these parts though after what happened in 13/14. People are now highly skeptical and even if MacKinnon blossoms - if guys like Varly and EJ are huge pieces to such a scenario, people may start to pucker about what it all means.

That's why the caveat is we get 100 points and everyone has a great season - but that everyone includes Varlamov and a healthy EJ and also means Sakic/Bednar not only stay but gain even more boldness in believing what they have been doing is the "right way".

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07-11-2017, 10:13 AM
  #7
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C

Yakupov outscores McDavid gets 109 points

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07-11-2017, 10:20 AM
  #8
LieutenantDangle
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Honestly, you had me at Ekholm!

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07-11-2017, 10:24 AM
  #9
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Those are all unrealistic. I'm guessing we finish with around 70-75 pts, possibly a bit higher if Bednar learned something in the summer or is fired by mid-December. Bednar will otherwise be fired at he end of the year and Sakic will step down or be 'promoted'.

Scenario A is otherwise pretty ideal. But then you're sayign that the new GM would say that everyone is available outside of X and I'm pretty sure the new GM wouldn't be as stupid as Sakic was by saying that. He wouldn't make it public knowledge that he's making every player including Landeskog and Barrie available, he'd just say something like 'were looking to add some picks'.

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07-11-2017, 10:38 AM
  #10
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Easily C.

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07-11-2017, 11:01 AM
  #11
JoemAvs
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Yeah. Horrible thread.

You couldn't have slanted it more towards your preferred mindset ("C") if you wanted to. I don't even want to go deep into specifics. Lets just say that you are making assumptions on future events that are entirely unreasonable in some parts and entirely unrelated to next years point totals in others. A Duchene trade return should have nothing to do with our point total at the end of next year (for once because he should be traded before the season anyways), a new GM wouldn't be dumb enough to make Mac available and ofcourse Mac would turn into a superstar and we would nail that #25 pick in scenario C. Of course...

Good job...


Still an easy A for me given that the Avs need to clean house anyways if they ever want to have real success IMO, we desperately need one of the defenders projected to go high in the draft and because I really don't want to see them deluding themselves into believing this team or core is better than it really is once again.


I already wrote what I want out of next season in the rumors thread. Won't repeat it here again. Lets just say my 70-75 point season IMO is way better for this organisation in the longrun than what I expect to happen if you get your wish..


Last edited by JoemAvs: 07-11-2017 at 11:10 AM.
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07-11-2017, 11:04 AM
  #12
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I think I'll go with B. Out of those options it's the best for this organization IMO.

I'd be happy with A 75-80 point season. I truly believe that we need a top five draft pick next season to get Dahlin/some other 1st pairing potential LD. 18-19 we should aim to be a decent bubble team and 19-20 playoffs with great high end pieces and good depth.

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07-11-2017, 11:13 AM
  #13
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Realistically I think we will be between A and B.

I don't think we'll be as bad as scenario A, but don't see us getting to the 85 pts plateau in scenario B.

I think we end up at about 70-75pts. Varly has a solid healthy year, MacK has a good year 65+pts. Rantanen scores 30G, Jost surprises people gets 45-50pts, Yakupov meshes well with someone after being given a real chance at a top 6 role scores 20+goals, defense is better but still not there.

Duchene IMO gets traded before training camp, probably to CLB for a deal surrounding Murray+.

No other big deals are made during season, we end up with a top 5 pick as 70pts is an improvement but not enough to get us out of bottom 5.

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07-11-2017, 11:40 AM
  #14
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My line of thinking is that last season was very out of the norm. If things regress back to the mean they should be fighting for a playoff spot but won't make it.

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07-11-2017, 11:41 AM
  #15
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I picked "B" because I think it's the most realistic. I don't see us being nearly as bad as last year, at least the PP should improve a lot and the injection of youth should help as well.

The ideal "C" scenario is something that you 'ramp-up to', I think. While I like it, I don't much like the trading 'Cam Morrison' for some help part. I would hope that management could see the forest from the trees in that type of scenario and sit tight and any playoff success is a bonus.

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07-11-2017, 11:51 AM
  #16
Foppa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
Yeah. Horrible thread.

You couldn't have slanted it more towards your preferred mindset ("C") if you wanted to. I don't even want to go deep into specifics. Lets just say that you are making assumptions on future events that are entirely unreasonable in some parts and entirely unrelated to next years point totals in others. A Duchene trade return should have nothing to do with our point total at the end of next year (for once because he should be traded before the season anyways), a new GM wouldn't be dumb enough to make Mac available and ofcourse Mac would turn into a superstar and we would nail that #25 pick in scenario C. Of course...

Good job...


Still an easy A for me given that the Avs need to clean house anyways if they ever want to have real success IMO, we desperately need one of the defenders projected to go high in the draft and because I really don't want to see them deluding themselves into believing this team or core is better than it really is once again.


I already wrote what I want out of next season in the rumors thread. Won't repeat it here again. Lets just say my 70-75 point season IMO is way better for this organisation in the longrun than what I expect to happen if you get your wish..
A Duchene trade should have nothing to do with our point total next year? Seems to me it could have a lot to do with it, depending on the specifics of the deal. I don't think the correlation between trading Duchene for an impact player like Ekholm and us having a surprsingly good season is weak at all. I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm saying in order for Scenario C to happen - then Sakic is going to need to surprise all of us with what he gets back.

A new GM wouldn't be dumb enough to make MacK available? Again, seems to me there is some logic in us having a horrible year and MacK probably underwhelming again. At which point - why wouldn't a new GM look at everybody from our current "core" as a potential trade chip?

Where did I say we'd nail the #25 pick in the draft in Scenario C? I'm just saying what henchy JUST said in the trade thread - that this draft is LOADED with big talent into the 20's. Just as if we again are a 48 point team we STILL only have a 20% chance at Dahlin. That's not fake news - that's the truth.

Obviously...these aren't the only scenarios. It's a hypothetical, which would you lean more towards as having the most benefit for the franchise. Sure, I lean more towards B & C even but I don't feel I've created a "loaded" question designed to get people to pick C. I even responded to the poster above who was like "C easily?" by commenting essentially, is it really "C easily" - keep in mind that might only further entrench a FO at staff that has not garnered long-term trust with their moves.

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07-11-2017, 11:52 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bender View Post
I picked "B" because I think it's the most realistic. I don't see us being nearly as bad as last year, at least the PP should improve a lot and the injection of youth should help as well.

The ideal "C" scenario is something that you 'ramp-up to', I think. While I like it, I don't much like the trading 'Cam Morrison' for some help part. I would hope that management could see the forest from the trees in that type of scenario and sit tight and any playoff success is a bonus.

The PP improving alone should add a handful of points to the season.

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07-11-2017, 12:10 PM
  #18
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I clicked a but meant c.

I want our players to be good and our team to win... duh

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07-11-2017, 12:25 PM
  #19
Cousin Eddie
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Meant to vote "C" and hit "B" accidently.

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07-11-2017, 02:14 PM
  #20
JoemAvs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Foppa View Post
A Duchene trade should have nothing to do with our point total next year? Seems to me it could have a lot to do with it, depending on the specifics of the deal. I don't think the correlation between trading Duchene for an impact player like Ekholm and us having a surprsingly good season is weak at all. I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm saying in order for Scenario C to happen - then Sakic is going to need to surprise all of us with what he gets back.

A new GM wouldn't be dumb enough to make MacK available? Again, seems to me there is some logic in us having a horrible year and MacK probably underwhelming again. At which point - why wouldn't a new GM look at everybody from our current "core" as a potential trade chip?

Where did I say we'd nail the #25 pick in the draft in Scenario C? I'm just saying what henchy JUST said in the trade thread - that this draft is LOADED with big talent into the 20's. Just as if we again are a 48 point team we STILL only have a 20% chance at Dahlin. That's not fake news - that's the truth.

Obviously...these aren't the only scenarios. It's a hypothetical, which would you lean more towards as having the most benefit for the franchise. Sure, I lean more towards B & C even but I don't feel I've created a "loaded" question designed to get people to pick C. I even responded to the poster above who was like "C easily?" by commenting essentially, is it really "C easily" - keep in mind that might only further entrench a FO at staff that has not garnered long-term trust with their moves.
IMO you have given three "pathways" that fans want the Avs to take for next season.

A= Rebuilding, tanking, developping whatever you want to call it
B= Getting back to the land of mediocrity we lived in the two years prior probably thanks to good health and Varly.
C= Fluking our way to the playoffs the way we did in 2013/14 (because lets face it this roster will never come close to 100+ points otherwise)

Then you added different narratives which are partly related and partly not related or only to a lesser degree to these outcomes.

Duchene should have been traded by now.
And yeah I don't want Ekholm for Duchene so I really hope it does not happen.
So in that regard C is probably my most hated outcome although I usually believe B is the worst range you can be in and therefore I usually would prefer C to B but given what that would entail in your world (Bednar + Sakic staying for the longterm), B is easily way better than C.

Why would any GM trade MacKinnon? That is the guy out of all of our pieces every smart GM should build his team around. Mentioning him being available under scenario A is IMO very far fetched and just helps you sway opinion towards your preferred outcome.
Also what has MacKinnons point total to do with the Avs point total? Sure he probably has higher numbers on a 100 point team than a 60 point team but you can't outright state that without knowing how the season unfolds.

Avs can significantly increase their GF without winning too many games.

Also 60 points for A is a very low estimate. 70-75 points is way more realistic, would give plenty of our players the chance to have a decent season and still land us a very high pick. So why set the points for scenario A so low?


So yeah.
Let me quote you:

A:

"Despite the worst record again, the Avs still only have a 20% chance of winning the lottery and thus Dahlin and have a better than half chance of not even getting Svechnikov with the #2 pick. New GM makes it known EVERYBODY is available expect Rantanen and Jost...even MacK is on the block, officially. "

C:

"MacK turns into a superstar with a 40 goal, 80 point beast season. "

"Sakic stays on as GM, renewed by the surprisingly awsome season. Bednar of course stays now after winning the Jack Adams.
Draft: Avs pick in the second half of the first round but still expect to find a real quality piece in an outstanding draft."



That is what I call an agenda.

The whole point of A is to get a high draft pick and good shot at Dahlin. That of course will horribly fail according to you (or atleast you really like to point out how terrible the odds are ) because you don't like A. And of course that will mean that Mac probably will get traded as well (which makes no sense but ok)...

But on the other hand if we go along with your point of view and pick C, MacK turns into a 40 goal 80 point superstar, Bednar wins the Jack Adams and we will probably completely nail the draft anyways...

Chance of all that happening even if we get 100+ points is way lower than our chances at Dahlin under scenario A probably..

So yeah. You are painting a very rosy picture of what it would mean if everyone follows along your prefered path but make the option you don't want to see happen sound way more grim and undesirable than it is. And mostly by manipulating hypotheticals that are mostly not even completely related to the main parameter.
That is what I am criticizing.

In the end it is your thread and it does not really matter but I don't like it when people use "re-framing" to influence peoples mindsets.

It does not matter at all in here because we are only discussing hockey but I have seen stuff like this in other fields of life (politics for one) that have had seriously negative consequences for real humans and therefore this type of agenda driven "scenario building" is a huge red flag for me.

Sorry if I am going a bit overboard with this and you probably did not even intend to do that but this is a huge pet peeve of mine.


Last edited by JoemAvs: 07-11-2017 at 02:26 PM.
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Old
07-11-2017, 02:20 PM
  #21
WarriorOfGandhi
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where's the relocate to Mexico City option?

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07-11-2017, 02:31 PM
  #22
the_fan
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where's the relocate to Mexico City option?
I'd vote for Tijuana.

What would you call a hockey team in Tijuana? They don't have avalanches there

Edit: How about Tijuana Sombreros? and this will be the team logo...


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Old
07-11-2017, 02:52 PM
  #23
Foppa
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Joem - truly not my intent brother, we can just agree to disagree on this. Keep on repping the Avs in your very vociferous if rather loquacious way - I have nothing against your style and glad you have the Avs at heart, especially on the main trade forum where your input is needed to counteract really distorted views from other fan bases.

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07-11-2017, 03:03 PM
  #24
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Joem - truly not my intent brother, we can just agree to disagree on this. Keep on repping the Avs in your very vociferous if rather loquacious way - I have nothing against your style and glad you have the Avs at heart, especially on the main trade forum where your input is needed to counteract really distorted views from other fan bases.
Yeah sorry you got me on the wrong foot with that one .

There was a smaller referendum locally in my area recently where people voted against their own interests because a company and their PR department did an amazing job at conflating different issues and fears with this referendum and now everyone keeps crying about the consequences of it.

So I am a bit oversensitive to stuff like that right now even if it clearly was not intended on your part .

No worries here. Again a pet peeve of mine (so my problem) and I hadn't reached my daily word limit anyways and was using this thread as an excuse to put off some stuff I really don't want to do today anyways .

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07-11-2017, 03:37 PM
  #25
Pierce Hawthorne
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Realistically I'd like something in between A and B.


With A, we're still by far the worst team in the league. Our veterans start to reach untradable status and become a huge hindrance to the team. That's not any good for a team that would be entering a complete rebuild to not be able to get great value out of EJ/Varly/Barrie/Landeskog/etc.



But at the same time, with B we end up not picking top 5 and that's IMO the most important thing we need to have happen this year is another top 5 pick. We have to add an elite talent into the fold again next year and if we dont pick top 5 our chances of doing that are much less. Although at the same time, having Mack hit 70 points, and Rantanen hitting 60, and Zads taking a huge step might be worth it to fall out of the Top 5 and into the bottom of the Top 10.





All in all, given that this year is supposed to be a deep draft and massively deep on Defenders, my vote would be on scenario B. At 10 we can still draft a potentially elite #1D(At least early indications of next years draft suggest this to be the case), and we would actually have our elite #1C taking fold in Mack in this scenario.

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