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2017 Ranking #5

View Poll Results: Avalanche #5 prospect is:
JC Beaudin (C) Rouyn-Noranda [#71 overall, 2015] 1 0.90%
Chris Bigras (D) San Antonio [#32 overall, 2013] 59 53.15%
AJ Greer (LW) San Antonio [#39 overall, 2015] 22 19.82%
Andrei Mironov (D) Dynamo Moskava [#101 overall, 2015] 6 5.41%
Cam Morrison (LW) Notre Dame [#40 overall, 2016] 1 0.90%
Conor Timmins (D) Sault Ste. Marie [#32 overall, 2017] 22 19.82%
Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-13-2017, 10:18 AM
  #26
VikingAv
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Still Greer. With his desire and dedication it's almost impossible to know what his ceiling will be.

Add Denis Par.., ehh, Shvyryov

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07-13-2017, 10:23 AM
  #27
henchman24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cgf View Post
When we're sure he'll come over, he jumps right into our top 5; until then I just don't know how you factor the risk/reward into his ranking against prospects that he's clearly more talented than like Compher/Greer but at the same time is far less likely to actually make an impact in colorado.
I'm just saying that if a Russian kid looks good enough to come over to NA, they mostly do eventually. Even Gusev probably comes over next season.

At the same point, we've had Mironov at #11 two straight years and for a while it looked like 2018 was the year he might come over. The pool is deeper than those years, but it is where the board has pegged players with similar questions (and far less upside).

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07-13-2017, 10:29 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I'm just saying that if a Russian kid looks good enough to come over to NA, they mostly do eventually. Even Gusev probably comes over next season.

At the same point, we've had Mironov at #11 two straight years and for a while it looked like 2018 was the year he might come over. The pool is deeper than those years, but it is where the board has pegged players with similar questions (and far less upside).
I really hope that's how it plays out, but until I see an interview with the kid where he says that playing in the NHL interests him more than playing with (and trying to replace) Mozaykin for that team; I'm not gunna let myself get too excited by his talent.

If I remember correctly I never voted for Mironov ahead of NHL prospects and only started voted for him once we were into career AHLer territory. And I think the same is appropriate in this case...except now our list of actual NHL prospects goes further than ever before.

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07-13-2017, 10:33 AM
  #29
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Bigras

Add Shvyryov

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07-13-2017, 10:36 AM
  #30
henchman24
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
I really hope that's how it plays out, but until I see an interview with the kid where he says that playing in the NHL interests him more than playing with (and trying to replace) Mozaykin for that team; I'm not gunna let myself get too excited by his talent.

If I remember correctly I never voted for Mironov ahead of NHL prospects and only started voted for him once we were into career AHLer territory. And I think the same is appropriate in this case...except now our list of actual NHL prospects goes further than ever before.
I'm not really disagreeing with you (I totally get your perspective), just saying that is where the board had put others with similar questions. And if Shvy ever comes over... the reward is really high. To me the question of if a player comes over is about the same as if a player can make the NHL. I'd put the odds of Shvy coming over higher than Henry making the NHL personally.

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07-13-2017, 10:39 AM
  #31
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I know we don't want to put a ceiling on Greer due to his work ethic and whatnot, but that's part of the exercise. Personally, I love me some AJG but I still think he will end up as a VERY good top 9 forward who can fill in on the top 6. Whether Bigras reaches his potential or not, he has the tools of a 4D and those guys are simply worth more. Similar to others, it's why I went Meloche, now Bigras, and Timmins next. I'm not a JCB fan, so Greer/Shiv/Cam/Miro will likely be my picks to follow the three straight D.

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07-13-2017, 10:44 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
I like the new toys too but Shvy showing interest in NA is still going to be a pretty big hurdle. No question the talent but when judging potential NHL impact I do think it's a relevant factor. I like Timmins but don't think he's a better talent than Bigras and Meloche were when they were drafted, keep in mind he already had his 18 year old season. I like that he can play pro faster but he's already had the time to take a step. He's 3 days away from being part of the 2016 class and where would he have been drafted then when he put up 13 points?
Makar isn't much younger. Nobody cares what he was thought of a year ago, despite playing against much lesser competition.

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07-13-2017, 10:53 AM
  #33
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Makar isn't much younger. Nobody cares what he was thought of a year ago, despite playing against much lesser competition.
People are aware of these things with Makar and that he doesn't compare directly because of his situation. With Timmins it's easier to compare a CHL D that's taken in the early 2nd round to the others that we have and it's not as widely known or repeated that Timmins is older in his class. Doesn't make him worth less because he's a late birthday but just something to keep in mind vs. say Meloche who is a late July birthday (I know he was voted higher obviously but for example). I know nobody is going to care when these guys are born when they get into their pro careers but we are comparing prospects now and where they are in their development, so somebody who already played their 18 year old season and took a step (and good for him, of course) is relevant to point out.

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07-13-2017, 11:07 AM
  #34
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Bigras, again.

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07-13-2017, 11:07 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
People are aware of these things with Makar and that he doesn't compare directly because of his situation. With Timmins it's easier to compare a CHL D that's taken in the early 2nd round to the others that we have and it's not as widely known or repeated that Timmins is older in his class. Doesn't make him worth less because he's a late birthday but just something to keep in mind vs. say Meloche who is a late July birthday (I know he was voted higher obviously but for example). I know nobody is going to care when these guys are born when they get into their pro careers but we are comparing prospects now and where they are in their development, so somebody who already played their 18 year old season and took a step (and good for him, of course) is relevant to point out.
I've heard before that kids who are the oldest of their class tend to perform better at all levels because they are usually more physically developed and accustomed to dominating, leading to greater confidence in their skills/abilities. So I refuse to buy into the mantra that being younger leads to greater development (or extra development) in players of the same draft class

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07-13-2017, 11:51 AM
  #36
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Bigras,

add Shyv

Can't believe how deep this class is..

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07-13-2017, 11:54 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by LieutenantDangle View Post
I've heard before that kids who are the oldest of their class tend to perform better at all levels because they are usually more physically developed and accustomed to dominating, leading to greater confidence in their skills/abilities. So I refuse to buy into the mantra that being younger leads to greater development (or extra development) in players of the same draft class
Many in the analytics community disagree. I don't follow it as gospel, just like any of the other analytics, but I do take it into consideration.

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07-13-2017, 11:56 AM
  #38
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Bigras,

add Shyv

Can't believe how deep this class is..
You mean ours, the vote this year? Or the draft class?

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07-13-2017, 12:02 PM
  #39
henchman24
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
Many in the analytics community disagree. I don't follow it as gospel, just like any of the other analytics, but I do take it into consideration.
This suggests that July-December is underrated compared to Jan-June... which would include both the youngins and oldins. With the 4th quarter (oldest players in the draft) being the most successful.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0057753

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07-13-2017, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
You mean ours, the vote this year? Or the draft class?
Our prospect pool. I usually lost interest by #5 or #6 in the past.

Edit : I'm not saying we're tops in the league or anything, but it's nice being at #5 and looking at a list of 6 players who all have a reasonably high chance of being NHL players.


Last edited by CobraAcesS: 07-13-2017 at 12:23 PM.
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07-13-2017, 12:29 PM
  #41
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Almost a cointoss between Bigras, Timmins and Greer. Picked Bigras. I think Avs fans are way too down on him at the moment.

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07-13-2017, 01:00 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I'm not really disagreeing with you (I totally get your perspective), just saying that is where the board had put others with similar questions. And if Shvy ever comes over... the reward is really high. To me the question of if a player comes over is about the same as if a player can make the NHL. I'd put the odds of Shvy coming over higher than Henry making the NHL personally.
Good to know Shv is coming over then

Just like with Mironov until Shv actually comes over he shouldn't be considered over legit prospects like Beaudin, Greer, Henry, Morrison, Timmins, Mironov or Martin

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07-13-2017, 01:45 PM
  #43
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I love Greer, but I can't take a top 9 winger who may never be a top 6er over a top 4 dman. Same reason I'll be voting for Timmins ahead of Greer next round...and voted Meloche ahead of Compher two spots ago...
Here's the thing though, nobody knows if Bigras or Meloche will be top 4 D men, any more than Greer won't be a top 6er.

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07-13-2017, 01:46 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
This suggests that July-December is underrated compared to Jan-June... which would include both the youngins and oldins. With the 4th quarter (oldest players in the draft) being the most successful.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0057753
That's a very interesting read

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07-13-2017, 01:48 PM
  #45
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Went with Quick-Draw Bigras.

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07-13-2017, 01:49 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Mystic MacK View Post
Here's the thing though, nobody knows if Bigras or Meloche will be top 4 D men, any more than Greer won't be a top 6er.
No one knows if Chabot or Makar will be top pairing dmen, does that mean we take Beaudin ahead of them?

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07-13-2017, 01:51 PM
  #47
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No one knows if Chabot or Makar will be top pairing dmen, does that mean we take Beaudin ahead of them?
Alphabetically, yes.

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07-13-2017, 01:51 PM
  #48
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Here's the thing though, nobody knows if Bigras or Meloche will be top 4 D men, any more than Greer won't be a top 6er.
I got more faith in the Dmen reaching a top4 level over Greer being top6.

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07-13-2017, 01:53 PM
  #49
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I think Shvyrov and Mironov aren't an easy one-to-one comparable. While they're both Russians with big questions about their willingness to come over, the similarities end there.

For one, the success the Avs had bringing Mironov over gives us a bit of a history of success with these negotiations. The Avs had no such history when it was going after Mironov, and the success there gives us an edge with Shvyrov.

Also, we're talking players with very different ceilings here. Even now that Mironov has an NHL contract, few think he's ever going to be more than a 5D. The prospect of Shvyrov becoming a Kuznetsov level of impact player on an offense ups his stock quite a bit as well over Mironov.

If Shvyrov falls outside the top 10 on this poll, it will be less of a reflection on him as an indication of just how deep our prospect pool now is.

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07-13-2017, 02:04 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
I think Shvyrov and Mironov aren't an easy one-to-one comparable. While they're both Russians with big questions about their willingness to come over, the similarities end there.

For one, the success the Avs had bringing Mironov over gives us a bit of a history of success with these negotiations. The Avs had no such history when it was going after Mironov, and the success there gives us an edge with Shvyrov.

Also, we're talking players with very different ceilings here. Even now that Mironov has an NHL contract, few think he's ever going to be more than a 5D. The prospect of Shvyrov becoming a Kuznetsov level of impact player on an offense ups his stock quite a bit as well over Mironov.

If Shvyrov falls outside the top 10 on this poll, it will be less of a reflection on him as an indication of just how deep our prospect pool now is.
Mironov was also part of a team that just had to let go of all of their 1-way contracted players. Shvyryov belongs to one of the 3 powerhouses of the KHL who are very well funded, and have an absolutely legendary KHL player on the downside of his career who will need a successor. The opportunity to play with Mozaykin and one day replace him for that team is a lot more tempting than having to find a new team because the club that raised you is insolvent.

Shvyryov is a different caliber of talent, but he's also going to have a lot more incentive to stay in russia if he continues to develop well and thrive.

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