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Old
07-13-2017, 04:24 PM
  #51
CrAzYNiNe
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
I admire your passion. And taking time to research...even if we disagree at times.

My biggest disagreement with you is this. No one has seen Alzner or Schlemko or Davidson or Jerabek play alongside with Weber. And because of that, worrying about speculation is an exercise in futility.
I agree and that's generally my opinion about those who think the Habs D is going to be fine.

While I think Alzner - Weber on the PK should be excellent, I am very worried if they are paired 5 on 5. They both are not excellent in transition which leads me to believe they would resort to very simple plays that will lead to dump and chase. From my recollection, I have always found this Habs team to be one that does best off the rush. We don't have many puck retrievers, especially in our top6. I find that non puck retrievers, when asked to chase down pucks, become complacent and we all know where that leads. If we have our most used line utilizing dump and chase, this should pose a real problem for our forwards.

While Schlemko, Davidson or Jerabek are complete unknowns, I tend to play the role of the pessimist in this regard as the unknowns are most likely to turn out bad. Schlemko at 30, can he really step into a #2 role? Can he add 800 total minutes to his most used season in his career and excel? Hard to believe, but far from impossible playing with a player the caliber of Weber. Davidson is very young and had a very good rookie season. If it wasn't for his injuries he may never have been traded from Edmonton. If he is healthy and can find some consistency, I feel he may be the #2 guy this year. That said, i am not happy that we have to play ring around the rosey for such an important position, but that appears to be life in the new NHL. Jerabek
is a complete unknown, and he will need to prove to CJ with little ice time that he deserves me. He is the definitely the long shot, but he may surprise.

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07-13-2017, 04:24 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
You just don't follow discussions. It's so boring I need to repeat myself.

I was talking about Alzner-Weber being a bad transition pair. You chimed in about their age, and other completely useless facts.

Yes Weber makes his partner better... But why must the Habs resort to filling holes with lesser players because he is paired with an elite player? You think I was happy with Emelin - Weber pair? You think I was happy with Markov-Weber pair? This is exactly where my frustration stems from; players needing to play well over their head for this team to be competitive and fall on their face come playoffs.

Schlemko played 19 mins a game in Jersey. He played 1249 minutes that year. Weber played 25 min/game, that's 2000 minutes last year, that's not a couple of minutes more.

Try whatever you want. When you start the season with that many question marks for such an important player, you really need to question your GM. It's fine if Morrow was a draft pick by the Habs, played 30 or so games, showed that he might have "it". But this isn't the case. You named 3 players, none of which were Habs last year that you "want to try" in the #2 spot. That's just bad management.
First of all, I don't think Alzner will be paired with Weber and even if they are being paired together this transition mania is so tiring... Did Weber and Emelin got hemmed in their zone half a game? No, they did not. The puck was out of the zone in a heartbeat.

You're just being irrational man, it's like getting top pair guys is some trivial **** that can be done twice a day... Same thing for top line centers.

How many teams out there have two elite defenders on their team?

It's usually one stud and then you try and make it work with the other guys you have.

Who cares who drafted those players? What kind of logic is this?

Weber plays 3 minutes of PK and 3 minutes of PP per game on average.

Schlemko could be his partner while playing ~20 minutes per game assuming he's not killing penalties and is getting second wave PP opportunities.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:25 PM
  #53
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Well hell. Instead of throwing out fancy nothing words, why don't you give out the undeniable truth?
The undeniable truth is: YOU don't know why Radulov decided to sign with Dallas.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:25 PM
  #54
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TL;DR.
IOW-"The record"


Who gives a ****ing **** about a record that does nothing in the post season. We had a playoff performer that our GM could care less about, pfft we have skilled wingers that never show up, we don't need playoff guys
THAT is the record you should worry about. This team WAS good when he inherited a 3rd OA pick, a rejuvenated markov, gally pulling a lehkonen, and our rookies/sophmores not being rookies anymore. New Goalie coach for price and a little more team toughness.
Couldn't have asked for a better team to walk into. It was also a SHORT season. Do you think they might have slumped if they played the full 82 games? Take a look at our RECORD when Markov is injured vs Healthy. It has been well documented, and its insane how bad we are without him.

We are worse now then 2013 period. My hopes for this team this year is wildcard and the only reason is an overpaid Price and Weber, but we can't spend 500K more and maybe an extra a year to keep radulov to be in a WIN NOW mode. You don't do the moves MB does and not be in a win now mode. Losing serge is a waste if you don't resign markov and radulov. Slowly sinking isn't a good recipe.

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Originally Posted by OnTheRun View Post
The undeniable truth is: YOU don't know why Radulov decided to sign with Dallas.
I do, try not being unbending and calling someone less than a dog. May not mean anything in french but those are serious words in many languages. Ask a muslim what they think of that.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:27 PM
  #55
CrAzYNiNe
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Who cares who drafted those players? What kind of logic is this?
For me it matters. Why would Boston give up on a 25 year old D that could possibly be a #2 guy? That's absurd.

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07-13-2017, 04:29 PM
  #56
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The taxes are a plausible reason for Radulov to have left.

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07-13-2017, 04:33 PM
  #57
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First of all, I don't think Alzner will be paired with Weber and even if they are being paired together this transition mania is so tiring... Did Weber and Emelin got hemmed in their zone half a game? No, they did not. The puck was out of the zone in a heartbeat.
The puck would get dumped out then come right back in. Emelin-Weber pairing was awful. You can have your first pairing lowering your team GF60 by more than 1.00 when they're on the ice, since they are on the ice a lot.

Once the unsutainable GA60 was gone this was a terribly ineffective pairing. And a Alzner-Weber pairing is the same thing waiting to happen.

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07-13-2017, 04:34 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by OnTheRun View Post
The puck would get dumped out then come right back in. Emelin-Weber pairing was awful. You can have your first pairing lowering your team GF60 by more than 1.00 when they're on the ice, since they are on the ice a lot.

Once the unsutainable GA60 was gone this was a terribly ineffective pairing. And a Alzner-Weber pairing is the same thing waiting to happen.
I guess this is what I am alluding to without actually finding the stats. Could you point me in the right direction?

edit: I found a site, but it doesn't have it with pairs, only individuals. For instance 5 on 5, Weber is near the bottom of the team in GF60 and Emelin is even worse. But what about together?

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07-13-2017, 04:36 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
If it isn't about $$$, please give us the undeniable reason why Radulov went to Dallas.
My thoery is he is pissed MB fired MT and traded DD

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07-13-2017, 04:39 PM
  #60
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Quick question if someone could help me.

To careful, I don't full believe in corsi stats being terms as possession numbers, IMO teams can and do take actually time of puck possession, and offensive zonetime and d-zone time.

But in terms of the advance stats fans/media use, where have the Habs ranked.

If I understand correctly, there were top 10 team in "possession" number the past 2 years..

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07-13-2017, 04:39 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
I guess this is what I am alluding to without actually finding the stats. Could you point me in the right direction?
5v5 WOWY on http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Sadly you can't input a time range to back to when to when the pairing was a thing, I know I dumped the exact stats in a old Weber thread, but HF delete locked threat so that stuffs is lost forever.

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07-13-2017, 04:44 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by OnTheRun View Post
5v5 WOWY on http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Sadly you can't input a time range to back to when to when the pairing was a thing, I know I dumped the exact stats in a old Weber thread, but HF delete locked threat so that stuffs is lost forever.
Oh wow that's quite the monster. I will just stick to my intuition when I believe that a pairing of Alzner - Weber will not help the Habs scoring woes with their poor transition game.

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07-13-2017, 04:45 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
I think everything your point on is what I'm trying to say. They are used in different roles, with Weber getting the much tougher role. It much easier to be a driving force when you don't have to go up vs other teams top line. I don't have the numbers in but I figure Weber likely gets a tone of D-zone starts, and matches up other teams top line regards. This is much tougher than getting matches up that suit your skillsets.

In regards to winning in general, honestly it is important, but I take it with a gain a salt just like Norris voting numbers. I mean Weber the number 1 player in TOI/G in the 2014 Olympics which was the one of the best teams created according to Stevie Y, and I believe he lead to team Canada in TOI/G during this year World cup, so its not like he is guy that never has won anything.

You can say well Preds with Weber never went past the 2nd round and now they made it to the Finals.. mean last year Ekholm and Ellis were not what they were now.

The Preds last year used Josi-Weber vs other teams top line regards and I believe both were at 24-25min a game with Ekholm-Ellis pair at around 20. where as they now have a 1A/1B pairing like you point out with the minutes.
Overall, you're right that Weber is clearly the best and the most important D on his team, whereas Subban plays on a team with 3 other very defensemen. But the difference in role isn't huge. For example, on the road, Petry played against the other team's top line usually more than Weber, since Therrien/Julien didn't have the last change.

If we're talking about the playoffs, Weber had to face the Rangers top line which consisted of .... hmm... Nash?

Subban faced Toews, Tarasenko, Getzlaf, Malkin. Malkin was considered the Conn Smythe favorite before the final round.

During the regular season, Weber had more PP time than Subban, but Subban played almost 1 full minute more than Weber at ES. In the regular season, Subban was the D with the most defensive zone starts/60 on his team, so was Weber. Not a big fan of that stat though, because if you keep icing the puck and get stuck for D zone starts all the time, it's not really a good thing...

Anyways, my point is the difference in role between Weber and Subban isn't that big.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:48 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
What does 5 years before MB even matter? 3 years before Gainey and PG blew up the team. Koivu, Kovalev are a distant memory and have no place in this discussion.

I showed you, year by year the progress and you choose to ignore the players progress and insert non sense about placement in the standings.

It's futile for us to continue this discussion if you continue to resort to discussing the Habs place in the standings as the be all, end all facts. I want to talk about players, because it's the players that play hockey.

Again I will leave you with this if you want to actually discuss the progress of the team through the progress of the players and not through the standings.
Thing is I am not going to go into a player vs player debate. I am not even discussing how much credit should go to MB. If you want to see he gets none thats your opinion. We can disagree but you made a strong argument.

What is undeniable is that before MB came on board the habs were a team that finished at the bottom half of the league and struggled to make the playoffs. Thats what the record reflects. I don't think they had good teams back then, I guess you do based on roster. Gomez/Cammy/Gio/Spacek/Kaberle/Campoli/Gill/Halak/Huet etc... do not make a good team. Habs were seen as a soft and weak team. We were always picked to be outside of the playoffs.

I guess it is futile if you think the team the 4/5 years before MB came on board was a strong team. All the evidence points that it was not. They had 3 good young pieces that grew up right when MB came on board but outside of that it was a pretty sad team that had pretty sad results.

MB didn't walk into a Wash/Pens situation, heck he didn't even walk into a TOR/EDM situation. He walked onto a team that had lots of bad contracts and few high draft picks. His saving grace was Timmins for once hit it out of the park in 07 and that Price turned his career around and actually grew up.

So to be clear the debate about how much MB improved the team is seperate. What there is no debate about is that the habs were not a top team before MB came on board. They peaked in 08 and were trending down since then. 3rd to 14th to 19th to 14th to 29th. Does that look like a power house team that is a step or 2 from the cup? A team trending the right way? I know you are a fan of the team I am sure you followed them back then so I am sure you remember how the team was perceived. No one was putting the habs on the contending level. Even with an ECF run it was all put on Halak's back.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:50 PM
  #65
OnTheRun
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
Oh wow that's quite the monster. I will just stick to my intuition when I believe that a pairing of Alzner - Weber will not help the Habs scoring woes with their poor transition game.
Also if you use twitter, you can subscribe to SPORTLOGiQ feed. They post interesting stats from time to time like complete breakdown of dump out and controlled zone exit.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:52 PM
  #66
habs03
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Originally Posted by OnTheRun View Post
5v5 WOWY on http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Sadly you can't input a time range to back to when to when the pairing was a thing, I know I dumped the exact stats in a old Weber thread, but HF delete locked threat so that stuffs is lost forever.
Thanks for the link.

If I'm reading it correctly, Mtl was the 3rd best possession team in the league last year, in terms of judging my corsi..?

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07-13-2017, 04:53 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by OnTheRun View Post
5v5 WOWY on http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Sadly you can't input a time range to back to when to when the pairing was a thing, I know I dumped the exact stats in a old Weber thread, but HF delete locked threat so that stuffs is lost forever.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...016-17&sit=5v5

Specifically, Emelin-Weber had a GF60 of 1.60. Weber apart from Emelin saw 2.50 GF60, while Emelin apart saw a 2.21 GF60. This would tend to indicate neither drives offense. Markov was better at driving offense away from Weber, although mostly because he was playing with Petry, who is a near elite PMD.

Its worth noting that these stats are starting to go a little stale though, there are newer ones developed with more complete data sets.

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07-13-2017, 04:54 PM
  #68
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The undeniable truth is: YOU don't know why Radulov decided to sign with Dallas.
Thats true. All we know is he could of chosen to sign here MB made him an offer and he decided to sign somewhere else.

The same MB that wooed and swooned him 1 year prior and convinced him to come to Montreal for 1 year amist all his appearnt other amazing offers he had out there.

So either in 1 year Radu turned on MB and the city ? Maybe he loved DD and MT so much it broke his heart to see them go? Or maybe the guy really wanted 7x6 as rumors said and no one would give it to him so he took the next best offer, which also happens to be in a place where he will have more take home cash in his pocket that he doesn't have to jump through hoops to "defer" to some other future date.

If you think MB should of given him that huge contract then fine blame him for not meeting Radu's demands and paying him close to 5 million more than any other team.

If you think Radu at 6.25x5 is appropriate then its on Radu for rejecting that offer and deciding to sign with a different team.

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07-13-2017, 04:55 PM
  #69
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Thanks for the link.

If I'm reading it correctly, Mtl was the 3rd best possession team in the league last year, in terms of judging my corsi..?
In terms of corsi? yes. But they weren't great at creating scoring chances, since they moved their best PMD, and had a severe lack of playmakers.

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07-13-2017, 04:55 PM
  #70
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What killed unrestricted free agency?

Good players used to sometimes make it to free agency.
The salary cap. I think that Price for eaxample actually got more money to remain a hab than he ever would have gotten on the free market. I wish it did not exist but it is the NHL's way of keeping weaker market teams competitive and ensuring that player salaries do not escalate to the level of the other pro sports.

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07-13-2017, 04:55 PM
  #71
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Overall, you're right that Weber is clearly the best and the most important D on his team, whereas Subban plays on a team with 3 other very defensemen. But the difference in role isn't huge. For example, on the road, Petry played against the other team's top line usually more than Weber, since Therrien/Julien didn't have the last change.

If we're talking about the playoffs, Weber had to face the Rangers top line which consisted of .... hmm... Nash?

Subban faced Toews, Tarasenko, Getzlaf, Malkin. Malkin was considered the Conn Smythe favorite before the final round.

During the regular season, Weber had more PP time than Subban, but Subban played almost 1 full minute more than Weber at ES. In the regular season, Subban was the D with the most defensive zone starts/60 on his team, so was Weber. Not a big fan of that stat though, because if you keep icing the puck and get stuck for D zone starts all the time, it's not really a good thing...

Anyways, my point is the difference in role between Weber and Subban isn't that big.
All good and valid point!

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07-13-2017, 04:59 PM
  #72
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If it isn't about $$$, please give us the undeniable reason why Radulov went to Dallas.
All players chase money, Shea Weber even tried to do it.

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07-13-2017, 05:00 PM
  #73
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In terms of corsi? yes. But they weren't great at creating scoring chances, since they moved their best PMD, and had a severe lack of playmakers.
Still interesting no?

I mean scoring their were 13th in the league (5on5), with a PDO of 100.8 which I believe the closer it is to 100 the better.

So they have this old school hockey mindset, dump and chase yet but have good "corsi possession numbers" which is suppose to be controlled zone exists and entry.

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07-13-2017, 05:01 PM
  #74
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IOW-"The record"


Who gives a ****ing **** about a record that does nothing in the post season. We had a playoff performer that our GM could care less about, pfft we have skilled wingers that never show up, we don't need playoff guys
THAT is the record you should worry about. This team WAS good when he inherited a 3rd OA pick, a rejuvenated markov, gally pulling a lehkonen, and our rookies/sophmores not being rookies anymore. New Goalie coach for price and a little more team toughness.
Couldn't have asked for a better team to walk into. It was also a SHORT season. Do you think they might have slumped if they played the full 82 games? Take a look at our RECORD when Markov is injured vs Healthy. It has been well documented, and its insane how bad we are without him.

We are worse now then 2013 period. My hopes for this team this year is wildcard and the only reason is an overpaid Price and Weber, but we can't spend 500K more and maybe an extra a year to keep radulov to be in a WIN NOW mode. You don't do the moves MB does and not be in a win now mode. Losing serge is a waste if you don't resign markov and radulov. Slowly sinking isn't a good recipe.
He could of walked into the Pens or Washington. He could of walked into TOR from last year or EDM when PC did. Those are way better situations. Walking onto a team that was barely making the playoffs so no high draft picks. Also he walked onto a team with Gomez and Kabrle's horrible contracts. Markov was a question mark if he could actually be healthy enough to play again.

The only reason why I bring up the record is to show that MB didn't walk onto a team that was 1 step away from the cup. Total revisionist history to pretend that after 08 (team finished 3rd and was looking up) that this was a powerhouse team and a great situation to walk into. I don't doubt if we pull up posts from 09/10/11 we will see tons of complaints about how horrible the team is, how they are going nohwere, bounced from the 1st round, missing the playoffs. Gauthier & Gainey suck, Jacques Martin sucks, defense sucks, were too small, Gomez sucks, Spacek sucks, Campoli sucks. Bourque sucks, Halak is better than Price etc... Its really ironic that people are trying to pass off those teams as good teams. Yup I am sure most people couldn't tell the difference between the habs and the Wings/Pens/Bruins/Chicago back then either. I

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07-13-2017, 05:04 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Thanks for the link.

If I'm reading it correctly, Mtl was the 3rd best possession team in the league last year, in terms of judging my corsi..?
Habs analytics were very good. The D was around top-10 or better last season in most relevant stats. Scoring-chances against, high-danger, total shots, Corsi & Fenwick -- all ranked between 3rd and 11th best. You can find all of this on NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

Offensive numbers were also good, but here's where there's a disconnect between analytics and results. Based on the analytics, Habs should've scored much more. Of course they didn't, which shows the difference between creating opportunities and capitalizing on them. Habs were able to get the puck in the general vicinity of the opposing net, but lacked the talent to shoot, deflect, tip, or bang the puck past the goalie. It's no coincidence our team makes so many goalies look like Hasek -- the closer we are to the net the weaker we get.

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