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For Rasmussen to be worth the 9th pick, how many pts a season does he need to avg?

View Poll Results: How many points?
40 points a season 8 9.09%
50 points a season 37 42.05%
60 points a season 33 37.50%
70 points a season 5 5.68%
other (explain in post) 5 5.68%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:48 AM
  #26
WingsMike
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I think the key word is "average." We can't expect him to average 60 points a season. Not a whole lot of players in the league are consistent 60-point guys.

I'd be OK with him averaging 45 points a year. Some guys at around 9th overall just aren't that successful in the NHL.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:53 AM
  #27
jkutswings
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flowah View Post
I've linked this data before but here it is again.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1TT...VBjFLxT6LmNwdI

based on Draft years from 2005-2014, forwards taken at #9 had average .523 PPG. If you look at forwards drafted #7 to #11, it was .54 PPG.

So ~45 points a season. lol.
This.^

Some fans still think of a 1C as a PPG player, but in reality, that caliber of talent is rare.

This past season, 7 centers finished with ballpark PPG scoring or better:

McDavid
Crosby
Backstrom
Schiefele
Draisaitl
Getzlaf
Malkin

And there were 18 centers that scored 60 points, some of which were the second half of the better 1-2 punches in the league. So I think that 60 points for a 1C means he's doing a very good job at being a 1C.

I think if Rasmussen had a ceiling of 50+ points, and played a style that helped free up other players on offense, it would be viewed as a great pick at 9.

The problem is that I don't see him reaching that ceiling. I see him as a 40 point guy, scoring mostly ugly goals from the crease. While I'd expect any of Vilardi, Necas, and Suzuki to have better odds of being a playmaker on offense, and impacting several players around him.

And surprise surprise... Those 3 players went 10, 11, and 12 overall.

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Old
07-16-2017, 08:09 AM
  #28
Pavels Dog
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Consistent 40-50 point player would make it a solid pick unless Vilardi/Necas turn into superstars. For my money, I'd need him to be capable of 50+ point seasons at C to be happy.

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07-16-2017, 09:58 AM
  #29
Frk It
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We shouldn't really be asking if he will get the 40-50 pts to make this pick look average for a #9 overall and respectable.

We should be asking if this is a pick that moves the needle on the re-build.

Because I've heard a lot how we don't need top 5 picks, so if you think he is a 40-50 pt guy, that doesn't really move the needle on a re-build... then I'd really like to know how this team is supposed to turn it around. Are we going to keep saying *we'll get that* next year? I thought we were looking (expecting) to beat the averages with picks like this in a big way? I don't really see that reflected in people's answers here.


Last edited by Frk It: 07-16-2017 at 12:06 PM.
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Old
07-16-2017, 11:13 AM
  #30
Dead Thing Fan
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Rasmussen

I was one of the very few on this board who was hoping that Rasmussen would be the Wings' pick and was thrilled when he was chosen.

I have faith that he will be a consistent 30-30=60.

I have a dream where the Wings send Nyquist + Givani Smith for Victor Edjsell +

6'5"Edjsell/6'6" Rasmussen/6'5" Mantha-talk about net presence

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Old
07-16-2017, 11:33 AM
  #31
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I'll be happy with Rasmussen if he becomes a consistent 50 point 2-way 2C that causes a lot of havoc around the net. I doubt he is able to achieve this though

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Old
07-16-2017, 12:03 PM
  #32
Flowah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frk It View Post
We shouldn't really be asking if he will get the 40-50 pts to make this pick look average for a #9 overall and respectable.

We should be asking if this is a pick that moves the needle on the re-build.
Exactly.

Wings have proven time and again they have the ability to find 40-50 point players who are at least adequate defensively. Filppula, Hudler, Tatar, Nyquist, probably AA and Mantha. We find em all over the draft. For years. We do not lack for good forwards. We have an enormous lack of elite forwards.

Adding 50 point center isn't gonna change this team. It's the going rate for that pick. Great. But that's not good enough to win so who cares? If the Wings only get the going rate for their picks at #9 and below, they will never contend again. Period.

You need to get lucky and hit a homerun later in the draft or get that high pick.

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Old
07-16-2017, 01:23 PM
  #33
Number1RedWingsFan52
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I said 50 points, I think Michael Rasmussen can be a 50-60 point center in this league.

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07-16-2017, 01:27 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dead Thing Fan View Post
I was one of the very few on this board who was hoping that Rasmussen would be the Wings' pick and was thrilled when he was chosen.

I have faith that he will be a consistent 30-30=60.

I have a dream where the Wings send Nyquist + Givani Smith for Victor Edjsell +

6'5"Edjsell/6'6" Rasmussen/6'5" Mantha-talk about net presence
I hope you're not serious here? Nyquist+Givani Smith for Victor Edjsell+ unless that + is Dante Fabbro Detroit would be getting screwed royally here Nashville got Edjsell for nothing other then signing him to the ELC. No way is he worth that much.

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07-16-2017, 01:47 PM
  #35
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I'll be happy (as in "ok") with the pick if he averages 25g-20A with a few years of 60 point+.

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07-16-2017, 02:10 PM
  #36
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Things he needs to do to be successful in my eyes:

Score 50+ Points a season.
Win tons of faceoffs, especially on the PP and d-zone
Not draw a lot of penalties
Show he can at least put up a respectable number of helpers.

The second he gets converted to a winger he's automatically a bust in my book.

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Old
07-16-2017, 02:14 PM
  #37
Dead Thing Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Number1RedWingsFan52 View Post
I hope you're not serious here? Nyquist+Givani Smith for Victor Edjsell+ unless that + is Dante Fabbro Detroit would be getting screwed royally here Nashville got Edjsell for nothing other then signing him to the ELC. No way is he worth that much.
The Preds got Edjsell for "nothing" because he was an undrafted UFA. The Wings were in the final cut for his consideration along with Vegas, Calgary and Nashville. I see to recall that the scouting reports gave him high marks for the 4 s's of hockey
(skill, skating, smarts and size(obviously)). As for the +, I would be happy with the Preds 2018 1st.

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Old
07-16-2017, 04:21 PM
  #38
France Nielsen
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He needs to outperform the guys we could have drafted, like Vilardi, Necas, and Liljegren, to name a few.

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07-16-2017, 05:54 PM
  #39
Oddbob
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Quote:
Originally Posted by France Nielsen View Post
He needs to outperform the guys we could have drafted, like Vilardi, Necas, and Liljegren, to name a few.
Lilegren went 17th, so why is he in this equation. 8 other teams, also passed on him, and other d-men went ahead of him.

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07-16-2017, 07:55 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oddbob View Post
Lilegren went 17th, so why is he in this equation. 8 other teams, also passed on him, and other d-men went ahead of him.
Because Wings drafting needs to be better than average. That's the only way you'll succeed.

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07-16-2017, 08:43 PM
  #41
Dotter
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I'd be ecstatic if he's a 100+ point producer in the NHL. I mean jump for joy and buy everyone a drink happy!

I'd consider him a steal if he produces 55+

I'd consider him in-line with his draft position if he's a 40+ guy, that's the logical expectations everyone should have considering where he was drafted.


I'll never criticize this pick if he's a 40 point centerman.

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07-16-2017, 09:09 PM
  #42
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Points don't always tell the whole story of a player's efficacy, ergo, I'm not going to assign a number as a meter of success. Okay, I will to a point, he better be getting above 30 yearly.

I'll have to see how how his overall game develops and how he benefits his linemates with his play to make a decision if he is unworthy of his draft position.

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Old
07-16-2017, 11:36 PM
  #43
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I picked other because IMO it depends how some of our future picks and current players pan out.

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07-16-2017, 11:49 PM
  #44
Syckle78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dotter View Post
Basically what Justin Abdelkader produces, or slightly better than Riley Sheahan's best season.

If he scores 60 points, then he's a steal.
Abby or sheahan are the bench mark for success? Well that's special.

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Old
07-17-2017, 12:12 AM
  #45
me2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RabidBadger View Post
Points don't always tell the whole story of a player's efficacy, ergo, I'm not going to assign a number as a meter of success. Okay, I will to a point, he better be getting above 30 yearly.

I'll have to see how how his overall game develops and how he benefits his linemates with his play to make a decision if he is unworthy of his draft position.


You can get 30 point players for mid-late picks. You can get 30 pointers free and relatively cheap from UFA. One way to evaluate this is ask what player you could get for the 9th overall pick in a trade. Would you give up the 9th overall pick for Lee Stempniak?

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07-17-2017, 08:24 AM
  #46
Dotter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Abby or sheahan are the bench mark for success? Well that's special.
Thread is based on point production.

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Old
07-17-2017, 08:38 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wood Stick View Post
55 point Martin Hanzal type.


Decent comp...don't know enough about the kid to know what he could be. Love the size. I just want an effective player in the top 6...don't know what he'll project to be.

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Old
07-17-2017, 09:03 AM
  #48
Red Winger 87
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I think he's going to play a style somewhere between Holmstrom and Andreychuk, around 45-55 points regular and maybe more depending on team mates.

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Old
07-17-2017, 09:12 AM
  #49
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I picked 60. I think he will have a similar ceiling to Larkin. Both guys are going to be somewhere in the 50-60 range average. Anything under 50 for Ras would be a bust, and what would really make it worse is if Liljegren, Necas, Vilardi all are better. Can you imagine the outrage on this board since those 3 guys are the ones that all of us wanted?

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07-17-2017, 10:35 AM
  #50
Frk It
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So we've been finding 30-40 pt players like clockwork in rounds 2-5 for years, and now it's acceptable if our first top 10 pick in 20 years is a 30 or 40 point guy.

Sheesh, let's set the bar real high...

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