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Looking ahead to the 2018-19 season (thread start date 7/17/2017)

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Old
07-17-2017, 09:11 AM
  #1
Curufinwe
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Looking ahead to the 2018-19 season (thread start date 7/17/2017)

The Flyers already have 22 guys that, pending any trades, you could pencil into a lineup for the 18-19 season. And Morin and Hagg are the only ones where we don't yet know what their cap hit will be.

Weal-Giroux-Simmonds
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Lehtera-Patrick-Konecny
Raffl-Laughton/Vecchione-Weise

Provorov-Gudas
Morin-Ghost
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald

Probably the biggest question to be resolved will be in goal. Stolarz will not longer be waiver exempt in 18-19, so if he's not going to be the Flyers backup then he'll have to go on waivers. Lyon is waiver exempt for 18-19, but presumably Hart and Sandstrom will be the AHL goalies for that season. So you could see two of Elliott, Neuvirth, Lyon and Stolarz being moved before the 18-19 season starts.

The other prospects who lose waiver exemption after 17-18 are:

Bardreau
Goulbourne
Martel

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07-17-2017, 09:30 AM
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Hiesenberg
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You start wondering if Morin/Hagg could be quietly on the block too. You'd think Friedman and Myers will push hard going into that season.

Maybe Gudas as well.

lol...frigging MacDonald

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Old
07-17-2017, 10:11 AM
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deadhead
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Weal-Giroux-Simmonds
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Lehtera-Patrick-Konecny
Raffl-Laughton/Vecchione-Weise

Provorov-Gudas
Morin-Ghost
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald

Stolarz and Lyon will be up or out
AK should be up or out after two seasons
Vorobyov probably won't need more than one AHL season
Rubtsov could go straight to the NHL if he doesn't go to the AHL this season
Leier is up or out, he's too good to settle for a career AHL role
Friedman and Myers should be ready after one AHL season

Lot's of players will be moved next off season, if not before.
As Hextall collects still more draft picks

Bardreau
Goulbourne
Martel
are career AHL players or gone

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Old
07-17-2017, 10:26 AM
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I'm not seeing flip listed in these projected lines, am I missing something?

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07-17-2017, 10:31 AM
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Hiesenberg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruckuss View Post
I'm not seeing flip listed in these projected lines, am I missing something?
Start of 2018 season, Filp is gone, contract is expired.

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Old
07-17-2017, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadhead View Post
Weal-Giroux-Simmonds
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Lehtera-Patrick-Konecny
Raffl-Laughton/Vecchione-Weise

Provorov-Gudas
Morin-Ghost
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald

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Old
07-17-2017, 10:58 AM
  #7
Curufinwe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadhead View Post
AK should be up or out after two seasons
What in Hextall's history makes you think he would kick a prospect "out" with a year left on his ELC just because he didn't make the Flyers as a 22 year old?

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07-17-2017, 11:27 AM
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RebelBully
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Originally Posted by Hiesenberg View Post
You start wondering if Morin/Hagg could be quietly on the block too. You'd think Friedman and Myers will push hard going into that season.

Maybe Gudas as well.

lol...frigging MacDonald
I imagine that if MacDonald has another season in 17-18 similar to that of 16-17, he will be bought out (if he can't be traded with retention) in the summer of 2018. He will only have 2 years remaining on his contract so the buy-out is palatable by that point.

2018-2019 - Year 1 of Buy-Out: $3,625,000 Savings
2019-2020 - Year 2 of Buy-Out: $3,875,000 Savings

2020-2021 - Year 3 of Buy-Out: $1,875,000 Penalty
2021-2022 - Year 4 of Buy-Out: $1,875,000 Penalty

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_c...drew-macdonald

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Old
07-17-2017, 11:32 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
The Flyers already have 22 guys that, pending any trades, you could pencil into a lineup for the 18-19 season. And Morin and Hagg are the only ones where we don't yet know what their cap hit will be.

Weal-Giroux-Simmonds
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Lehtera-Patrick-Konecny
Raffl-Laughton/Vecchione-Weise

Provorov-Gudas
Morin-Ghost
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald

Probably the biggest question to be resolved will be in goal. Stolarz will not longer be waiver exempt in 18-19, so if he's not going to be the Flyers backup then he'll have to go on waivers. Lyon is waiver exempt for 18-19, but presumably Hart and Sandstrom will be the AHL goalies for that season. So you could see two of Elliott, Neuvirth, Lyon and Stolarz being moved before the 18-19 season starts.

The other prospects who lose waiver exemption after 17-18 are:

Bardreau
Goulbourne
Martel
Another big question for next summer will be whether or not the Flyers extend Simmonds or look to trade him.

My only 100% locks for the lineup in 2018-2019

Lindblom - Giroux - Voracek
xxxxxxx - Couturier - Konecny
xxxxxxx - Patrick - xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx - xxxxxxx - xxxxxxx

Provorov - Gudas
Morin - Gostisbehere
xxxxxxx - Sanheim

Goalie 1: xxxxxxx
Goalie 2: xxxxxxx

Every other player under contract for that season is not a sure-thing to be here entering that season, IMO. I'm even including Jordan Weal because there is still a chance he was a flash-in-the-pan and falls on his face in 17-18.

A guy like Hagg could be moved if Myers has a great year in the AHL. Hell, even Myers could be moved if Hextall thinks it's time to be aggressive and an elite young forward becomes available (think Sergachev for Drouin).

As you mentioned, any of the 4 goalies can be moved and it's likely that 2 of them are. I think Neuvirth is moved during the 17-18 season as long as Elliott establishes himself and Stolarz is playing well in Lehigh Valley. A team will have an injury to a netminder and come asking about Neuvy and we will be in a position to deal him.

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Old
07-17-2017, 12:14 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
What in Hextall's history makes you think he would kick a prospect "out" with a year left on his ELC just because he didn't make the Flyers as a 22 year old?
What makes you think he's paying any attention?

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Old
07-17-2017, 12:16 PM
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bauer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
The Flyers already have 22 guys that, pending any trades, you could pencil into a lineup for the 18-19 season. And Morin and Hagg are the only ones where we don't yet know what their cap hit will be.

Weal-Giroux-Simmonds
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Lehtera-Patrick-Konecny
Raffl-Laughton/Vecchione-Weise

Provorov-Gudas
Morin-Ghost
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald
i think that's pretty close to what we'll be seeing, with a few wildcards.

biggest question is i find it hard to believe that Myers (who is probably ready now) won't be ready in 2018. i think we'll see him next year. either in place of Hagg or maybe even Gudas.

i'd like to see Lehtera traded and Rubtsov get that 3LW spot too.

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Old
07-17-2017, 12:22 PM
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Curufinwe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RebelBully View Post
I imagine that if MacDonald has another season in 17-18 similar to that of 16-17, he will be bought out (if he can't be traded with retention) in the summer of 2018. He will only have 2 years remaining on his contract so the buy-out is palatable by that point.

2018-2019 - Year 1 of Buy-Out: $3,625,000 Savings
2019-2020 - Year 2 of Buy-Out: $3,875,000 Savings

2020-2021 - Year 3 of Buy-Out: $1,875,000 Penalty
2021-2022 - Year 4 of Buy-Out: $1,875,000 Penalty

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_c...drew-macdonald
Imagine is the key word here. Why would Hextall buy any player out in summer 2018 when the Flyers will have around $10m in cap space for 18-19 with a full roster? If Hextall doesn't want MacDonald on the 18-19 roster and can't trade him with retention, then he will just waive him.

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07-17-2017, 12:24 PM
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I don't think Myers is going to spend more than one full year in the AHL. We'll obviously know better once he actually plays in the AHL, but I don't think he's the kind of player who will gain much out of an extended period of time in the minors.

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07-17-2017, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Random Forest View Post
I don't think Myers is going to spend more than one full year in the AHL. We'll obviously know better once he actually plays in the AHL, but I don't think he's the kind of player who will gain much out of an extended period of time in the minors.
He's similar to Sanheim in that regard. If they do get rid of MacDonald somehow (or even carry 8 dmen) I'd expect Hagg to be the #7. I don't think trading Gudas and going with all young guys in the top 6 is realistic.

Provorov-Gudas
Sanheim-Ghost
Morin-Myers
Hagg

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07-17-2017, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
What in Hextall's history makes you think he would kick a prospect "out" with a year left on his ELC just because he didn't make the Flyers as a 22 year old?
Hextall can see a logjam coming, he won't dump AK, but if he doesn't see a spot for him, he won't wait to move him - Hextall has a history of moving marginal players for draft picks.

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07-17-2017, 12:42 PM
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Not signed prospects who are still waiver exempt.

He even kept Weal after he couldn't make the Flyers roster as a 24 year old and was no longer waiver exempt.

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07-17-2017, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
Imagine is the key word here. Why would Hextall buy any player out in summer 2018 when the Flyers will have around $10m in cap space for 18-19 with a full roster? If Hextall doesn't want MacDonald on the 18-19 roster and can't trade him with retention, then he will just waive him.
Maybe to give him an opportunity at signing elsewhere and playing in the NHL for a more reasonable salary? I dunno. I just want him out of the organization.

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07-17-2017, 12:45 PM
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He's also never faced the prospect of a logjam at both the NHL and AHL levels - and he has to get kids to leave college early, which means he has to promise them AHL PT.

It's a good problem to have.

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07-17-2017, 12:46 PM
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Maybe to give him an opportunity at signing elsewhere and playing in the NHL for a more reasonable salary? I dunno. I just want him out of the organization.
MacDonald shouldn't be that hard to move next summer, eat half of his salary and you have a veteran 3rd pair D-man for 2yr/$5M.

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07-17-2017, 12:50 PM
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If you search old threads for Hagg and Laughton a lot of the posts are about trading them because they were having disappointing seasons and/or people thought the organization was ready to give up on them.

We should learn from that. Hextall clearly doesn't think spending 3 years in the AHL or spending your 22 year old season in the AHL necessarily means you're not part of the Flyers future.

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07-17-2017, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
If you search old threads for Hagg and Laughton a lot of the posts are about trading them because they were having disappointing seasons and/or people thought the organization was ready to give up on them.

We should learn from that. Hextall clearly doesn't think spending 3 years in the AHL or spending your 22 year old season in the AHL necessarily means you're not part of the Flyers future.
Absolutely agree.

He has said time and time again that he doesn't believe you can "over cook" a prospect. If he sees progress, even if it is slow, he is going to stick with a player. He doesn't conform to arbitrary timelines thrown around by fans and media.

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07-17-2017, 01:17 PM
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There's a lot of lessons that should have been learned from experience... and yet we still see the same posts, proving that no lesson was learned.

Most of the time it's to do with people being impatient too.

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07-17-2017, 01:22 PM
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I see it all the time on twitter about how the Flyers are supposedly down on Stolarz, even after Hextall specifically said he wasn't, and protected him in the ED.

Given his lack of games last season and the fact he's still waiver exempt, the AHL is just the best spot for him to begin the 17-18 season. And if he's playing better than Lyon when Neuvirth gets hurt, he'll be called up again.

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07-17-2017, 01:25 PM
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It's not about impatience, if you do any projected rosters, in a year it gets crowded, in two years you're going to be pushing the 50 contract limit and PT at the AHL level, much less the NHL team. The Flyers now have 10 picks in next year's draft, including 2 first rd picks - a crowded roster is only going to be more crowded going forward.

Which means Hextall will probably split up prospects in three groups:
1) future starters
2) talented but uncertain they can beat out other players
3) talented enough to play on a bad team, but not the Flyers.

Prospects will be pushing to get into the first group, a few are obvious if they stay heathy, Rubtsov, Frost, Myers. Others will rise into this group if they step up the next couple years the way Lindblom did after he was drafted.

Prospects in the second group will be watched. This is where Hextall is patient, but he'll also note if they're blocked for the foreseeable future.

Prospects in the third group will be moved when the opportunity presents itself.

However, it's never quite that simple, Hextall will be approached by GMs who can count on two hands, with offers of top prospects or NHL starters for a package of prospects. If you're a bad team, and you need to build a full roster, Hextall is the man to talk to. And if the Flyers are playoff contenders, Hextall may be willing to move someone in the 2nd or 3rd group for a one year patch.

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Old
07-17-2017, 01:57 PM
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That impatience comment wasn't directed at you. It was a general comment about something displayed by many on this board.

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