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McGuire: Expect Leafs to be a 'home ice' team in Eastern Conference playoffs

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Old
09-07-2017, 05:56 PM
  #51
DarkKnight
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It really says a lot about a person if they can find a way to be pessimistic about the most exciting Leafs team in decades!!

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09-07-2017, 06:06 PM
  #52
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It really says a lot about a person if they can find a way to be pessimistic about the most exciting Leafs team in decades!!
This.

I love how so many fans of this team and other teams are telling most of us not to get too excited. To expect regression, injuries, sophmore slumps, etc. So many considerate souls telling us to keep our expectations in check because we don't want to be let down. Have any of these fans not been alive for the past 12-13 seasons? We've hit so many lows as a team from 8 year playoff drought to the kessel trade debacle to the game 7 meltdown. What right do a bunch of fickle fans have to tell us where to set our expectations and hopes?

I'm expecting this years Leafs to be great. I'm expecting a monster year out of Auston and very good years out of Willie, Marner and Kadri. I'm expecting us to unearth a gem in Dermott and even potentially get a glimpse of what's to come with Timmeh. I'm expecting the Leafs to make a push deep into the playoffs and perhaps even make it to the ECF or SCF. If the team falls short, I'm perfectly okay with it. Rome wasn't built in a day and there's no success story with a bunch of pitfalls and lessons learned along the way. Such is life. It's okay to get excited! It's perfectly fine to have high expectations!

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09-07-2017, 06:14 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Goals against in 2016-17 Atlantic Div and Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Montreal ...........200
Boston .............212
Ottawa .............214
Tampa Bay ........227
Buffalo ............ 237
Florida ............ 237
Toronto ............242
Detroit .............244

Metro
NY Islanders .....242
New Jersey .......244

Leafs were 7th in the Atlantic (+2 GA better than Detroit) & tied with NYI and only (+2 GA better than NJ).

Defensively Leafs are among the weakest defensive teams in the East finishing only+2 better than Detroit and NJ for the worst goals against.

Removing Polak and Hunwick and replacing that with an aging Hainsey doesn't improve things on paper much at all. If you can't keep the puck out of your net you will be hard pressed to consistently try and outscore your mistakes and breakdowns and have guaranteed success.

Until Leafs can move up to the top defensively, is when success should be expected, otherwise a bubble team (with lots going right) the more reasonable expectation to bank on.
So 15 GA worse than your runaway favourite Tampa. With 6 rookie forwards in the lineup. I don't have to tell you, but the D-core isn't solely the reason for the GA.

Improved D will come from improved play from the forwards. And scoring spread throughout the lineup.

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09-07-2017, 06:27 PM
  #54
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Last season we were a 95 point team. That might change due to:

- Normalized injury situation. No reason to think our chances to get injuries are worse than any other, but we likely won't be as spared as last season.
+ Normalized shootout record. Shootout results vary wildly, hard to draw much conclusions from last year other than that it likely doesn't happen again.
+ Outlier results defending lead and in OT. This is definitely player-driven, but it would be very surprising if a more experienced team haven't learned to handle these situations better. Plus, the narrative of our issues actually drove results as well*.
+ Andersen won't spend a month adjusting his game. It's well-known by now that he was asked to change his game, an experiment that ended after his initial struggles. With how well he performed afterwards, I doubt they try again.
+ Roster-wise, we are stronger both in terms of starting lineup and depth.

There's nothing to indicate a regression is likely on a team-wide basis. Kadri might see a regression, but Willy and Hyman should balance that.

Sophomore slumps are not real. There's always a risk that a player has a worse season than the one before, but that chance isn't bigger in their second year. It's actually smaller, which makes sense as second year players are more likely to be developing still than latter years.

While the mentioned risk that players just have worse seasons, performance or variance-driven, it's not bigger for us than any other team.

If we did as well as we did, which was mostly after a rather slow start, partially due to surprising other teams, then there's a whole lot of people that should be fired on other teams.

As for career years, it ties into the former point. Furthermore, who actually did? JVR with 1 point more than his best, 3 points over his seasonal average? Bozak, who put up his seasonal average? Komarov, Martin, and Rielly didn't, leaving just Gardiner and Kadri. Only the latter seemed like he might not repeat, and we have other names that are bound to do better, even ignoring player development.

I understand it's easy to be skeptical after the decades we've had, but there are very legitimate reasons to be optimistic about this team already next season. Enjoy it.

* Personal reflection. I normally watch several games per day, and it was always such a night-and-day difference in how teams were going for it against us compared to other teams. They knew we struggled, and they were circling like sharks in the water. Then you watched them against another team in the exact same situations, and they are barely attacking the puck at all in comparison.

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09-07-2017, 06:57 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by SAMCRO44 View Post
Personally, and this may fall under 'unpopular opinions', I think there's been too much talk about how competitive this team will be after what was more or less, a minimal-injury season last year.
We have some new bodies and some that departed. I just want to see how the gel before making any bold predicitons
I'm not so worried about injuries to the forwards, as we have a tonne of organizational depth. Now a long term injury to Matthews is a different story, as that would be a killer.

Leafs don't really have a big horse defenseman that would hurt the team significantly if he went down, so injuries to a couple of d-men wouldn't be devastating.

An injury to Andersen would be a trainwreck, which is what i'm most worried about. Would potentially be a season ender. Maybe they could trade for a goalie and get lightning in a bottle for a couple of weeks, but Andersen out long term would be a killer. Defense isn't good enough to cover up a bad goalie.

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09-07-2017, 07:05 PM
  #56
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TB should run away with & win the Div.

Montreal (with Price), Boston (with Rask) >> Toronto (with Andersen)

So Toronto would be hard pressed to to win home Ice with Andersen and behind this Dcore, but its possible if things go right.
Montreal has no puck moving defensemen, so exiting their zone will be very tough. They also have crap forward depth so they better stay healthy. Boston will be a good team but will also struggle if a couple of key forwards go down. Chara is one year older and their overall defense doesn't blow me away.

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09-07-2017, 07:05 PM
  #57
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the roster too good for some people, we gotta trade some good players for future assets, who wants to think of a cup when you can think about the future

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Old
09-07-2017, 07:28 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Bozak never hit 50 points before. I don't expect him to hit that mark again. I think both of them will struggle and will bring Marner down.
His career average PPG is 52 points over 82 games. He's put up two prior seasons at 49 points, another at 47 (and two of those three seasons he had a PPG that put him over that 50 point pace). He's literally been the most consistent 50 point pace player since his first full season with us. I very much doubt he'll struggle to hit that mark again, since he's played at that pace every single season his played with us save one.

And JVR too, has been consistently a 55-60 point player for us since his first season. He's never deviated from that. It's quite safe to say he's likely going to be a 27 goal, 55 point pace player. Since he's NEVER been less for us.

I very much disagree with your opinion. I don't think it has much merit to it.

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09-07-2017, 07:40 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Nithoniniel View Post
Last season we were a 95 point team. That might change due to:

- Normalized injury situation. No reason to think our chances to get injuries are worse than any other, but we likely won't be as spared as last season.
+ Normalized shootout record. Shootout results vary wildly, hard to draw much conclusions from last year other than that it likely doesn't happen again.
+ Outlier results defending lead and in OT. This is definitely player-driven, but it would be very surprising if a more experienced team haven't learned to handle these situations better. Plus, the narrative of our issues actually drove results as well*.
+ Andersen won't spend a month adjusting his game. It's well-known by now that he was asked to change his game, an experiment that ended after his initial struggles. With how well he performed afterwards, I doubt they try again.
+ Roster-wise, we are stronger both in terms of starting lineup and depth.

There's nothing to indicate a regression is likely on a team-wide basis. Kadri might see a regression, but Willy and Hyman should balance that.

Sophomore slumps are not real. There's always a risk that a player has a worse season than the one before, but that chance isn't bigger in their second year. It's actually smaller, which makes sense as second year players are more likely to be developing still than latter years.

While the mentioned risk that players just have worse seasons, performance or variance-driven, it's not bigger for us than any other team.

If we did as well as we did, which was mostly after a rather slow start, partially due to surprising other teams, then there's a whole lot of people that should be fired on other teams.

As for career years, it ties into the former point. Furthermore, who actually did? JVR with 1 point more than his best, 3 points over his seasonal average? Bozak, who put up his seasonal average? Komarov, Martin, and Rielly didn't, leaving just Gardiner and Kadri. Only the latter seemed like he might not repeat, and we have other names that are bound to do better, even ignoring player development.

I understand it's easy to be skeptical after the decades we've had, but there are very legitimate reasons to be optimistic about this team already next season. Enjoy it.

* Personal reflection. I normally watch several games per day, and it was always such a night-and-day difference in how teams were going for it against us compared to other teams. They knew we struggled, and they were circling like sharks in the water. Then you watched them against another team in the exact same situations, and they are barely attacking the puck at all in comparison.
Great post. Couldn't have said it better myself

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09-07-2017, 07:57 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nithoniniel View Post

* Personal reflection. I normally watch several games per day, and it was always such a night-and-day difference in how teams were going for it against us compared to other teams. They knew we struggled, and they were circling like sharks in the water. Then you watched them against another team in the exact same situations, and they are barely attacking the puck at all in comparison.
Would you mind expanding on this a bit? Not quite clear on what you are saying.....thx

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09-07-2017, 10:47 PM
  #61
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I don't think we will have home ice because I do think Pit or Wsh will still make it out from the other side. And I do think Leafs can make the Eastern finals if they are in one of the divisional spots.

TB is the only other team in Atlantic that I think on paper is better than us. However, their defense with Girardi is atrocious so who knows.
Tampa Bay is also being way over-hyped.

Ben Bishop has been replaced by Peter Budaj

Drouin for Sergachev makes sense long term but for this upcoming season it's a big loss.

Filpulla + Boyle were important depth pieces that they replaced with lesser pieces.

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09-07-2017, 11:04 PM
  #62
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Point 1:
Shootout Wins: 1
Shootout Loses: 8

Point 2:
Backup Goalie till January 9th:
Jhonas Enroth with a whopping .872%

Point 3:
Smith, Froese, Holland and Gauthier were the 4th line center till Boyle came along. Boyle only played 21 games for us.
Moore is here all year which gives us a 4th line that can actually contribute.

Point 4:
Patrick Marleau even at his old age is still a big addition to any team and we didn't take away any top 9 forward in the process.

Point 5:
Hainsey is better than Hunwick or Polak.

Mix in that youth should play a better all-around game and there's no reason we can't be a top 4 team. Injuries to any signficant player can derail any teams chances. Witness Montral (Price) or Tampa (Stamkos) in recent seasons.

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Old
09-08-2017, 03:22 AM
  #63
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I expect a similar season to last, a 10-20 game adjustment period then a solid season from then on with a playoff berth on the lower end of the seeding spectrum.

Our play style will evolve with an improved defense core and some more defensibly responsible forwards added to the line-up.

IMO This is the best leafs team we've seen in a decade, Its going to be our most successful season in the last decade and its going to be the first season we see Babcock's full effect on show, with tight team driven defense and explosive offence.

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09-08-2017, 04:02 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Bozak never hit 50 points before. I don't expect him to hit that mark again. I think both of them will struggle and will bring Marner down.
he had 49 pts in 58 games one season. if he was healthier he probably would have hit 50+ pts 4 or 5 times already.

Bozak for his career is right around 50pts/80 games

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09-08-2017, 04:25 AM
  #65
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the sens,habs, and bruins all had meh offseasons.
they are either gonna be the exact same, or slightly worse.
the panthers are a mess, and the sabres arent ready yet. If the leafs play the way they should, they should get home ice rd 1 along with tampa

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09-08-2017, 04:30 AM
  #66
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Ah, brain-fart on my end, but point still stands I don't see how they can be seen as a tier above the Leafs
they arent. they are a 90-95 pt team if everything goes right

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09-08-2017, 04:54 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by egd27 View Post
Would you mind expanding on this a bit? Not quite clear on what you are saying.....thx
I'll try to explain it better. I think there was a palpable feeling that the narrative around our struggles in late game situations caused opponents to play those situations with more conviction.

Teams played with a ton of intensity against us in those situations. Then you watch another game in a similar stage of the game, and the same event occurs, and the team that's behind plays the situation with half the intensity.

Anyway, that difference struck me so often that I don't think it was a coincidence. And it makes a certain sense. If you believe that your target is vulnerable, you'll attack with more determination, higher intensity, less hesitation. Opponents put intense pressure on us that often weren't there for other teams, just because they flat out believed they would be getting that late goal where against other teams they know it's a long shot.

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09-08-2017, 05:33 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Nithoniniel View Post
I'll try to explain it better. I think there was a palpable feeling that the narrative around our struggles in late game situations caused opponents to play those situations with more conviction.

Teams played with a ton of intensity against us in those situations. Then you watch another game in a similar stage of the game, and the same event occurs, and the team that's behind plays the situation with half the intensity.

Anyway, that difference struck me so often that I don't think it was a coincidence. And it makes a certain sense. If you believe that your target is vulnerable, you'll attack with more determination, higher intensity, less hesitation. Opponents put intense pressure on us that often weren't there for other teams, just because they flat out believed they would be getting that late goal where against other teams they know it's a long shot.
Thanks for clarifying.

Interesting observation.

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09-08-2017, 05:52 AM
  #69
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I have a bit of a pessimistic view of the team this season. Just don't see Bozak, JvR, repeating what they did last season. I also think at least one of the rookies will slump this season. I think we'll be a bubble team.
JVR has put up the same numbers for the past 4 seasons. What makes you feel like he suddenly won't get his usual 25-30 goals and 55-60 points?

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09-08-2017, 07:00 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Nithoniniel View Post
Last season we were a 95 point team. That might change due to:

- Normalized injury situation. No reason to think our chances to get injuries are worse than any other, but we likely won't be as spared as last season.
+ Normalized shootout record. Shootout results vary wildly, hard to draw much conclusions from last year other than that it likely doesn't happen again.
+ Outlier results defending lead and in OT. This is definitely player-driven, but it would be very surprising if a more experienced team haven't learned to handle these situations better. Plus, the narrative of our issues actually drove results as well*.
+ Andersen won't spend a month adjusting his game. It's well-known by now that he was asked to change his game, an experiment that ended after his initial struggles. With how well he performed afterwards, I doubt they try again.
+ Roster-wise, we are stronger both in terms of starting lineup and depth.

There's nothing to indicate a regression is likely on a team-wide basis. Kadri might see a regression, but Willy and Hyman should balance that.

Sophomore slumps are not real. There's always a risk that a player has a worse season than the one before, but that chance isn't bigger in their second year. It's actually smaller, which makes sense as second year players are more likely to be developing still than latter years.

While the mentioned risk that players just have worse seasons, performance or variance-driven, it's not bigger for us than any other team.

If we did as well as we did, which was mostly after a rather slow start, partially due to surprising other teams, then there's a whole lot of people that should be fired on other teams.

As for career years, it ties into the former point. Furthermore, who actually did? JVR with 1 point more than his best, 3 points over his seasonal average? Bozak, who put up his seasonal average? Komarov, Martin, and Rielly didn't, leaving just Gardiner and Kadri. Only the latter seemed like he might not repeat, and we have other names that are bound to do better, even ignoring player development.

I understand it's easy to be skeptical after the decades we've had, but there are very legitimate reasons to be optimistic about this team already next season. Enjoy it.

* Personal reflection. I normally watch several games per day, and it was always such a night-and-day difference in how teams were going for it against us compared to other teams. They knew we struggled, and they were circling like sharks in the water. Then you watched them against another team in the exact same situations, and they are barely attacking the puck at all in comparison.
Good summary IMO. It's funny how pessimists keep talking about how we were so lucky with respect to injuries that we should expect regression while ignoring other areas where we can expect to be better. There's no reason we can't win our division with 100+ points.

Re. Kadri, I would add that any expected regression is so minor that it's barely worth mentioning. I said at the beginning of last season that I expect an average of 55-60 points from him over the next 5 years or so, 61 points is just barely above that so I'd say it's more or less in line with what I expect form him and if he ends up with say 57 this season, I'd be very happy with that and wouldn't call it a regression at all.

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09-08-2017, 07:06 AM
  #71
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I believe there was a stat out there that we were the #2 team after February to Washington. It stands to reason that a young team would take time to get it together. Seemingly we did that throughout the season. I won't make bold predictions because I'm not a psychic, but I would say the safe money is on us being a team at least challenging for home ice, if not the division and conference.

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09-08-2017, 07:37 AM
  #72
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I believe there was a stat out there that we were the #2 team after February to Washington. It stands to reason that a young team would take time to get it together. Seemingly we did that throughout the season. I won't make bold predictions because I'm not a psychic, but I would say the safe money is on us being a team at least challenging for home ice, if not the division and conference.
Agree 100%. I was saying repeatedly that we should be a better team in March then we are in in November (just as an example) and that's exactly how it played out. Along the same lines, the sophomore jinx is a myth and LOL at people saying that we should expect regression from our big three. There is no reason to expect our players who had excellent rookie seasons to be even better this season. Odds are that they won't all be better but as a group, they absolutely should be.

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09-08-2017, 08:48 AM
  #73
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Teams that struggle defensively with keeping the puck out of their own net also struggle with consistency of sustained success as a result.

Teams with strong defenses do not need their offenses to try to bail them out regularly, and when/if offense slows down the team continues to move forward in the standings as less goals for are required to win games & not the biggest hindrance if you surrender less goals against at the same time.

Once the Leafs as a group and team move from the first to the second scenario is when predicting success will become more accurate.

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09-08-2017, 09:08 AM
  #74
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It's hard to subtract games but the Leafs goals against was heavily inflated by those Enroth games and Andersen's first 5 games.

22 goals in Andersen's first 5 games, when he wasn't playing well at all and Enroth gave up 15 goals in his 4 starts...

I'm not saying the Leafs are a stellar defensive team, but once they figured out their goaltending they were middle of the pack in terms of goals allowed.

Andersen had a .922 save percentage onward after those first 5 games. If that is the Andersen we have starting next year, and McElhinney is not Enroth the GAA will drop significantly.

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09-08-2017, 09:19 AM
  #75
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Originally Posted by The CyNick View Post
I believe there was a stat out there that we were the #2 team after February to Washington. It stands to reason that a young team would take time to get it together. Seemingly we did that throughout the season. I won't make bold predictions because I'm not a psychic, but I would say the safe money is on us being a team at least challenging for home ice, if not the division and conference.
Here are points post All Star break from last year...

46 Washington Capitals
46 Pittsburgh Penguins
46 St. Louis Blues
44 Chicago Blackhawks
44 Tampa Bay Lightning
43 New York Islanders
42 Anaheim Ducks
41 Calgary Flames
40 Columbus Blue Jackets
40 Ottawa Senators
40 Toronto Maple Leafs
39 New York Rangers
39 Edmonton Oilers
39 Boston Bruins
38 Montreal Canadiens
38 Nashville Predators
38 Carolina Hurricanes
37 Minnesota Wild
37 Winnipeg Jets
35 San Jose Sharks
34 Los Angeles Kings
32 Philadelphia Flyers
32 Arizona Coyotes
30 Detroit Red Wings
29 Florida Panthers
29 Buffalo Sabres
29 Dallas Stars
21 New Jersey Devils
20 Colorado Avalanche
17 Vancouver Canucks

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