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This Year ... IMO Draft by Position

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Old
06-05-2006, 03:05 PM
  #1
nyhabsfan
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This Year ... IMO Draft by Position

While this has been debated over the years, I still have a firm belief that SOME draft years, you take the next player available that fills a need in your orginization PROVIDED that their is NOT a SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF in Up-Side between the positional player that you need and the best player available.

The Habs need a big right handed center with top two-line potential. They also need a physical, mean player with some offensive skill. One of these needs could be filled in the first round if this was a deep draft. Since the consesus is that after the first 4-5 picks, there is a significant drop in talent, they why don't we go and get the best right handed large, mobile Dman or Center available.

The best scenerio would be to trade up with our first pick and a player to get into the top 4-5, but other teams aren't stupid (contrary to many of the posters trades on these boards). We certainly seem set on the wings and in goal, so this year let's take the first TWO picks and get the best Dman and Center we can get.

My pick would be 2 Dmen if possible.

What's your opinion?

Top Prospects
(from Hockey's future)

1. Alex Perezhogin, RW

2. Andrei Kostsitsyn, RW

3. Carey Price, G

4. Tomas Plekanec, C

5. Kyle Chipchura, C

6. Yann Danis, G

7. Guillaume Latendresse, RW

8. Corey Locke, C

9. Alexei Emelin, D

10. Ryan O'Byrne, D

11. Mikhail Grabovsky, LW

12. Sergei Kostsitsyn, LW

13. Jaroslav Halak, G

14. Juraj Mikus, C

15. Mathieu Aubin, C

16. Maxim Lapierre, C

17. Chris Heino-Lindberg, G

18. Matt D'Agostini, RW

19. Oskari Korpikari, D


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Old
06-05-2006, 04:23 PM
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Medicine Twin
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That's what I've been saying all along. This is the year to make the move seeing as their are so many good top-2 centres in the early first round. We need a top line centre who may be able to make an impact in 3 years.

Kessel is likely out of reach but Staal, Toews, Meuller, Little may be worth Perezhogin and our 1st given our situation.

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Old
06-05-2006, 04:27 PM
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sXe
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No one drafts by position. Maybe they should but we'll never know because everyone goes by BPA.

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06-05-2006, 04:52 PM
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Blind Gardien
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sXe
No one drafts by position. Maybe they should but we'll never know because everyone goes by BPA.
Rather, we'll never know because everyone says they took the best player available, regardless of whether that player suspiciously filled a glaring organisational need or not. Teams do factor it in. But they'll call it part of the "best available" evaluation, and why wouldn't they?

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Old
06-05-2006, 05:37 PM
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Moving in the top 5 is almost impossible for us. We don't have what it takes to do so...

But this year, I really think that we have to draft a centre in the first round( one of Sheppard, Little, Berglung should be available), and a defenceman in the second round. There's no real big difference between a first round and a second round defenceman this year...

Like that, we would filled two of our weaknesses...

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06-05-2006, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan
Moving in the top 5 is almost impossible for us. We don't have what it takes to do so...

But this year, I really think that we have to draft a centre in the first round( one of Sheppard, Little, Berglung should be available), and a defenceman in the second round. There's no real big difference between a first round and a second round defenceman this year...

Like that, we would filled two of our weaknesses...
What if they never make the NHL. We draft a center/d-man every year until one makes the team? It's always BPA wether you believe them or not, it's always BPA.

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06-05-2006, 06:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sXe
What if they never make the NHL. We draft a center/d-man every year until one makes the team? It's always BPA wether you believe them or not, it's always BPA.
I know, but I'm pretty sure that, if Sanguinetti don't fall to us, the BPA will be a center...and in the second round, the BPA might really be a defenceman. That's how I see the draft for now. Things might change soon tho

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06-05-2006, 08:15 PM
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Were still not good enough to draft by position in my opinion. Once we can establish our self as a top 5 team in the east for a couple years in a row than we could draft by position. We allready made are share of mistake in the past with the draft that I dont want to make another one because we drafted by position need

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06-05-2006, 08:23 PM
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If we don't draft by position how could you then explain the Price pick? How Price became the BPA when Brule was still there??? How do you compare Price's season, though playing for a bad team, doing miracles some games, letting some floaters the others compare to Brule who just had an incredbile season as a rookie and already demonstrated what he's demonstrating now?

The BPA is a notion that I think is used by chief scouts and GM's in order to not reveal who they have in mind. 'Cause what's the real meaning behind this notion. Is the BPA, the best player available right now, the best player availabe by thinking of who will develop more and who has the greatest upside??? I mean, after the first 15 on this draft, we may think that the others 50 are all on the same scale. Who's the BPA then???

And when comparing a d-man, a goalie and a forward, how do you really ranked them. Obviously easier to say that Brule was better than Skille than comparing a goalie and a forward....

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Old
06-05-2006, 10:56 PM
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BPA is the safest strategy. Suppose you decide in advance come hell or high water to draft a Dman and the best Dman available is considered by a consensus of CSS, ISS, THN, and most scouts to be in the 22-36 range. Do you draft him with the 16th overall pick? Of course not, regardless of your organizational need.

As for trading to move up 5-10 places, you usually have to give up too much.

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06-06-2006, 06:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whitesnake
If we don't draft by position how could you then explain the Price pick? How Price became the BPA when Brule was still there??? How do you compare Price's season, though playing for a bad team, doing miracles some games, letting some floaters the others compare to Brule who just had an incredbile season as a rookie and already demonstrated what he's demonstrating now?

The BPA is a notion that I think is used by chief scouts and GM's in order to not reveal who they have in mind. 'Cause what's the real meaning behind this notion. Is the BPA, the best player available right now, the best player availabe by thinking of who will develop more and who has the greatest upside??? I mean, after the first 15 on this draft, we may think that the others 50 are all on the same scale. Who's the BPA then???

And when comparing a d-man, a goalie and a forward, how do you really ranked them. Obviously easier to say that Brule was better than Skille than comparing a goalie and a forward....

Very good points... I believe the key to drafting is not only ranking players, but understanding where the talent level really drops off. After the first 5 picks there is a drop in talent, when is that next level drop of ... after the 30-35 spot, 40 -45? If the Habs pick #16 and #36, then they should be able to pick 2 second level centerman and a big D man. If ANY of the second level players make it..it will be a crap shoot.

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06-06-2006, 07:19 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sXe
What if they never make the NHL. We draft a center/d-man every year until one makes the team? It's always BPA wether you believe them or not, it's always BPA.
This BPA crap is so overused... The thing is that there really isn't enough difference in talent and potential between the players in the 10-30 range to be absolutely certain that player A is the BPA versus player XYZ. Unless a team is really sold on a particular player, they'll take one that meets their need in the long run.

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06-06-2006, 07:58 AM
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I tend to agree that the BPA designation becomes somewhat fictional, or at least arbitrary, once you drop below the elite talent (top 5-10 usually depending on the draft). Although there are probably as many different approaches to drafting as there are teams, I think ultimately the GM and scouts are looking to draft the guy who they think is most likely to help them win the Stanley Cup. This I think explains the Price over Brule decision, because regardless of talent and all the other variables, without elite goaltending you're not going to win the Cup...its that simple. I think most teams idea of the BPA is the player that best fits the team's overall strategy and management's vision of the right "mix" for building a Cup winner. Those strategies and visions are probably as numerous and different as the management of the 30 teams. So, to sum up, BPA is really largely fiction, unless you're talking about a Crosby, Ovechkin or Lemieux. Just my two cents.

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Old
06-06-2006, 11:14 AM
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I would never draft 18 year olds by position. Today's weaknesses may be strengths by the time an 18 year old makes the NHL. Always draft BPA and accumulate the best assets possible.

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06-06-2006, 02:48 PM
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I would'nt draft by position. If we need a D-man then we can go and get one with the UFAs or simply trade one of our prospects.

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06-06-2006, 02:51 PM
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Saying teams go by BPA is like saying they go by favorite colors. If they like blue the'll pick blue first.
Of course BPA is different for every team and every scout of those teams has a different subjective definition of "best".

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06-06-2006, 02:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtl6
I would'nt draft by position. If we need a D-man then we can go and get one with the UFAs or simply trade one of our prospects.
I think when people say we need D, they don't mean on the Habs. We need D coming up through the system, we will need D pretty desperately in Hamilton over the next few years. That's why we would want to draft D. Not because we need one on the Habs next season that we could sign as a free agent. And in general it's a risky business signing prospect-level D or trading for them, because it usually means something has gone wrong with that guy for his former team to leave him unsigned or wanting to trade him. So I don't think that's a very realistic path to count on for re-establishing our organization depth on D. The draft is far and away the best route. Looking at some of the undrafted free agent D (like Bisaillon, like Benoit and Sanford were), or college guys (although the creme of that available crop has been skimmed off already for this year, hasn't it?) that's an ok backup plan. We still ought to get 3 guys into the system, minimum, in this year's draft. Doesn't have to be with our first pick, though.

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06-06-2006, 04:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien
I think when people say we need D, they don't mean on the Habs. We need D coming up through the system, we will need D pretty desperately in Hamilton over the next few years. That's why we would want to draft D. Not because we need one on the Habs next season that we could sign as a free agent. And in general it's a risky business signing prospect-level D or trading for them, because it usually means something has gone wrong with that guy for his former team to leave him unsigned or wanting to trade him. So I don't think that's a very realistic path to count on for re-establishing our organization depth on D. The draft is far and away the best route. Looking at some of the undrafted free agent D (like Bisaillon, like Benoit and Sanford were), or college guys (although the creme of that available crop has been skimmed off already for this year, hasn't it?) that's an ok backup plan. We still ought to get 3 guys into the system, minimum, in this year's draft. Doesn't have to be with our first pick, though.

The same thing could have been said last year yet we only got 1 defensemen with our last pick. Last year we were going into the new NHL with a very bare defense in Hamilton. Archer, Cote, and Hainsey is slim pickings and that was assuming Hainsey lost a spot to Streit. Sanford wasn't resigned and there didn't seem to be much in terms of prospects we had coming in. Korpikari was just coming off an injury shortened season in Finland, Emelin had played 12 games all season and Linhart spent time in all 3 leagues (junior, AHL level, pro) during the season. Korneev was removed from his teams roster when all the NHLers arrived, costing him to miss half the season. Benoit and Dawson were invited to camp along with Derick Martin and Sanford.

So at last years draft Savard/Timmins had to know that they were really short of D prospects, yet management chose all forwards and a goalie until their final pick. Me personally I don't care if they draft all defensemen or none, I can't put a number on any position and say we need this many. After an impressive '05 draft I don't really expect another great draft but hope that we continue to find 2-3 good players. So far I think Savard/Timmins have done so; Komi/Perez/Pleks-01, Higgins/Ferland-02, Kostitsyn/O'Byrne/Lapierre/Halak-03, Chipchura/Emelin/Grabovsky-04, and what hopefully could end up being a really great draft in '05. I trust they will continue the process and while I can see we are really short on D prospects, top notched D prospects, and offensive minded D prospects, I feel confident they will accquire good assets.

The main problem imo is the short term. They have Streit, Cote, Archer, Sanford, Benoit in the system as guys that they could use in Hamilton. Streit, Cote and Archer all have to clear waivers but that might not be a problem. O'Byrne, Emelin, Korpikari are options, but I wonder if we will see any this year. I could see Emelin coming over if things can be worked out with Lada. O'Byrne it would be great to see him jump ship a year early, but I have my doubts that he will, just a guess at this point.

Things wouldn't be so bad if Gainey somehow got all 3 though but it might be better that he doesnt. Say they can get Emelin but not O'B and Korpikari, that would mean Emelin could see a lot of time in Hamilton this year on what could be another young/inexperienced team that struggles to win. Perhaps he would be ready to make the jump full time after a year in Hamilton, impossible to say at this point, some think he will make the jump right away but if I had to guess I'd say that won't happen, look at how we brought Markov along and he was already a top defensemen in the RSL. But if he came over, played a year in Hamilton, then made the jump or even played parts of the year with both teams, then you would also be getting O'Byrne in Hamilton where he could see a lot of time most likely. So we could have 2 future NHLers in Emelin and O'Byrne in Hamilton with fillers for depth. Korpikari will need to be brought over too or we lose him, so after this season we could see all 3 in Hamilton with Benoit/Sanford. The problem is beyond them there is only Paquet, who in 2 seasons will still likely be 2 years away from Hamilton.

So in 3 years from now, Emelin I'd assume would already be in the NHL. O'Byrne would be looking to make the Habs or more likely spend time in Hamilton with some time with the Habs and Korpikari I'd assume would still be in Hamilton for what would be his 2nd season. So we'd have O'Byrne/Korpikari/Benoit but that's thin for sure with Paquet joining the next year when O'Byrne could be on his way to the Habs and Korpikari looking to see some time if possible.

Clearly we need some D prospects but if we don't draft any I won't be overly concerned as long as we make good picks, I'll be happy.

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06-06-2006, 04:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz
This BPA crap is so overused... The thing is that there really isn't enough difference in talent and potential between the players in the 10-30 range to be absolutely certain that player A is the BPA versus player XYZ. Unless a team is really sold on a particular player, they'll take one that meets their need in the long run.
How are they supposed to know what they'll need in 3-5 years?? With the new CBA most teams will have half their team UFA before the prospect is ready.

The BPA is'nt crap. Most NHL team openly draft like that. The specific needs can't be predicted and can easily be solve with the UFAs. There is almost always a significant difference between two player, specially in 1st round. It's why we see so much trades of team moving up/down.

ONE year ago people were saying the Habs did'nt need a Brulé type of C. Now, with Saku possibly out and a weak 2nd C, a very good center would be more than welcomed.

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06-06-2006, 07:07 PM
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Blind Gardien
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
The same thing could have been said last year
(and was by me anyway! )
Quote:
yet we only got 1 defensemen with our last pick. Last year we were going into the new NHL with a very bare defense in Hamilton. Archer, Cote, and Hainsey is slim pickings and that was assuming Hainsey lost a spot to Streit. Sanford wasn't resigned and there didn't seem to be much in terms of prospects we had coming in.
Exactly, and I think it was a really rough situation. Not that 18 year old players we picked in last year's draft were going to help it, but Hamilton definitely suffered on D, even with Roy, Syvret, and especially Smith to help out. I don't think it is good at all for the development of our prospects to have a weak and struggling farm team. If we just draft 1 defenseman again, or if we otherwise fail to address that organizational weakness, it will come back to haunt us again eventually IMO.

The Habs have done very poorly at bringing defense from recent drafts into and through the system. Shasby, Dyment, Carkner, Dixon, Hanchuck, Glenn, Gauthier, Chvojka, Jarventie, Linhart, Korneev, Flood, now Dulac-Lemelin and maybe Gleed... so many were briefly or never even seen or signed... and then the few Hainsey and Beauchemins (which I'm not really trying to blast management for or anything) just have the potential to be an extra kick in the groin on top of it all. The only guy we drafted on our whole development team last year was Archer, and he doesn't look like he'll ever amount to anything and really only played a bit role.

I don't expect to see O'Byrne, Korpikari, or Emelin this year, really, although it sure would be a nice bonus if one did appear. And even if we do draft 3 defensemen like I want, it won't necessarily help this year, of course. You can even argue that two years from now those 3 draftees plus O'Byrne, Koripkari, and Emelin might even give us an overload if nobody has advanced. But for all we know, we'll never get a guy like Korpikari. For all we really know, O'Byrne could be the next Archer (though personally I really doubt it), for all we know Emelin will get better money in Russia and stay like Korneev (even though it sure doesn't sound like that's his preference now). Relying on those guys and bringing nothing in would be a mistake.

Of course, at the same time, I don't think anybody is going to argue against picking Kostitsyn, Aubin, and D'Agostini either, those look like good picks now. But at least if we fall into a situation where we end up seeing guys like that at forward who are too good to pass up again, I think the team really needs to find other ways of getting D into the system, even if it's via free agents from junior or college. We almost have to do that anyway just to plug holes for the upcoming season. And not with Pauls and Aitkens, of course. It shouldn't be all that hard. But it should take an exceptional run of forwards being available (like last year) to come up with the same lack of D in the draft. I'm not going to complain if it goes down like that. But my whining will never end if they come out with no D and a bunch of Dany Stewart/Jimmy Bonneau/Victor Ujcik forwards. (I know, you can't draft an Ujcik anymore. Thankfully.)

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Old
06-06-2006, 10:32 PM
  #21
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Montreal and Blind Gardien: great posts.

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Old
06-06-2006, 11:36 PM
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I think with the current situation of upfront( ) the player to hunt is pretty clear atm: Mr Sanguinetti.

Personnaly I think Ryder is on the trading blocks so this could be a possible advancement in the draft OR a major trade for a franchise center...elsewhere...where they need a goalie...and a goal scorer...for their new...multimillionaire star center....in the bay of tampa...you know? Why exchange Ryder? If Kostitsyn surpass him(only a matter of 1 training camp now(lol), where does Ryder play? What's is role in the team? You lose is market value for nothing. Possible player that could go with Ryder in a trade is Zed, Ribeiro and Aebiesher.

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