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Reasons as to why Samsonov + Johnson + rookie >> Zednik + Bulis + Sundstrom

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07-16-2006, 11:43 PM
  #1
Pere Noel
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Reasons as to why Samsonov + Johnson + rookie >> Zednik + Bulis + Sundstrom

Executive summary:

Samsonov, Johnson and the future rookie replacing Zednik, Bulis and Sundstrom will not score too many more goals that the players than they are replacing.

Yet, they will generate much more offense, by passing the puck more and will contribute to a higher team spirit.

More passes:

At first, it is easy to think that new players will score more goals, but I did an analysis (by compounding the last 3 years of each players) and found out that we are kif-kif (50-50) in terms of goals - see data below.

However, our ex-canadians, were terrible at passing the puck, whereas the new ones are very good at it.

That is the main reason why the will contribute to a much more offensive Montreal team.

Bulis, over the course of the last 3 years has established himself as a "18 goals/82 games" player. But only 22 assists...

Johnson on the other hand, scored 19 goals/82 games... so only 1 goal more than Bulis... yet... he had 41 assists... for a total of 19 more than Bulis. So 20 points more.

One would think that Johnson, and it had been heard before, would make his teammates better than Bulis did. So expect more goals from the players with whom he will play.

Same goes for Zednik vs Samsonov.

Zednik has been over the last 3 years a 26 goals, but only 21 assists player. For a total of 47 points.

Meanwhile Samsonov was a 26 goals as well, but 35 assists player. For a total of 14 more assists and points.

As for Sundstrom, he was a 9 goals, 16 assists player over 82 games for a total of 25 points... I would think that most rookies could match up those numbers.

As a matter of fact, most of our last year rookies had better performance or similar performance, had they played 82 games:

Plekanec - 82 games - 11 goals - 24 assists - 35 points
Murray - 82 games - 11 goals - 2 assists - 13 points
Perezhogin - 82 games - 11 goals - 12 assists - 23 points
Higgins - 82 games - 24 goals - 15 assists - 39 points

Considering that Sundstrom's time will be taken by a blend of a rookie time and a second year player... I think that we can expect a significant improvement on that side as well. I will arbitrarily say 5 points more.

Does that mean that we will score 39 (5+14+20) more goals? I wouldn't think so, but I like to think that at least half of those new opportunities will crystallize themselves... which will give us at least 20 more goals. That will allow us to get much closer to the top 5 teams in our conference in terms of "goals for". As it stands we were #10 out of 16.

Better Spirit

We all know that Bulis wanted to be a second line player, and no longer wanted to play on the third line as a defensive player. That doesn't help the team spirit.

As for Zednik, I am convinced he was ready to move somewhere else next year, add to this that he is buddy-buddy with Bulis...

Sundstrom was never a go-go guy....

Samsonov on the other hand, did sign as a UFA, so one has to conclude that he was interested to play here in first place (otherwise that would be an oxymoron) But he also said that Montreal was the first club to show interest and that it was a deciding factor. Therefore, one would think he really wants to play here. So that would be a plus over our 3 ex-players.

Johnson did mention that he was glad to move to a real hockey town... whereas I've never heard our 3 last canadians really say that.

And you can expect the rookie that will secure his position to be very eager to play... contributing also to a much better spirit than the one that our last 3 players had brought last year.

All in all, I think we are much better off.

Data:


2002-03 SJ 47 2 10 12 -4
*2002-03 MON 33 5 9 14 3
*2003-04 MON 66 8 12 20 3
*2005-06 MON 55 6 9 15 -6
201 21 40 61 -4
Sundstrom 82 9 16 25 -2

2002-03 MON 82 16 24 40 9
*2003-04 MON 72 13 17 30 -8
*2005-06 MON 73 20 20 40 2
227 49 61 110 3
Bulis 82 18 22 40 1

2002-03 MON 80 31 19 50 4
*2003-04 MON 81 26 24 50 5
*2005-06 MON 67 16 14 30 -2
228 73 57 130 7
Zednik 82 26 21 47 3

2002-03 BOS 8 5 6 11 8
*2003-04 BOS 58 17 23 40 12
*2005-06 BOS 55 18 19 37 -3
*2005-06 EDM 19 5 11 16 0
140 45 59 104 17
Samsonov 82 26 35 61 10

Versus Zednik +14(a) +14(p) +7(+/-)

2002-03 PHO 82 23 40 63 9
*2003-04 PHO 11 1 9 10 -1
*2005-06 PHO 80 16 38 54 7
173 40 87 127 15
Johnson 82 19 41 60 7

Versus Bulis +1(g) +19(a) +20(p) +6(+/-)



Tomas Plekanec C 67 9 20 29 4
82 11 24 35 5

Garth Murray LW 36 5 1 6 -2
82 11 2 14 -5

Alexander PerezhoginRW 67 9 10 19 5
82 11 12 23 6

Christopher Higgins C 80 23 15 38 -1
82 24 15 39 -1

vs Sundstrom 82 9 16 25 -2


Last edited by Pere Noel: 07-17-2006 at 12:37 AM.
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Old
07-16-2006, 11:46 PM
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Russeltown
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Great post!!!!! Congrats

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07-16-2006, 11:50 PM
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exactly... they are better team player ( use well their teammates ) and i hope they will be more dedicated then our old players. Overall... we should have more scoring chances from those moves and a better locker atmoshpere (Johnson seem to be a nice team guy and samsonov will be happy here im pretty sure with perez,kost,kovalev,markov).

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07-16-2006, 11:53 PM
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Toro
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Very Interesting and informative Post

I AGREE with most...


I believe the 3 new Habs will be a great improvement over the leaving 3. Lats will definatly eclipse Sundstrom's last season totals


Go Habs Go


Go Lats Go

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07-16-2006, 11:58 PM
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and Samsonov >> Zednik + Bulis

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07-17-2006, 12:00 AM
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type_v
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What about defensively?
Johnson is not better than Bulis (maybe a little worse) in his own end. Samsonov is an offense first forward like Zednik so about par. No rookie to crack the lineup will have the positioning and smarts of Sundstrom.

The new group will most definitely be better, but not in every single aspect of the game.

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07-17-2006, 12:01 AM
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Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toro View Post
Very Interesting and informative Post

I AGREE with most...


I believe the 3 new Habs will be a great improvement over the leaving 3. Lats will definatly eclipse Sundstrom's last season totals


Go Habs Go


Go Lats Go

Whichever rookie that will be... I am quite sure he will has a significant impact (greater than Sundstrom). Since there is a few of them that will be competing, the winner would have definitively demonstrated a lot of poise to secure his position.

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07-17-2006, 12:01 AM
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HabuseMoi
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Now do that with every team and tell us if we make the playoffs =P

great post hehe

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07-17-2006, 12:05 AM
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aHab
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pere Noel View Post
Executive summary:

Bulis, over the course of the last 3 years has established himself as a "18 goals/82 games" player. But only 22 assists...

Johnson on the other hand, scored 19 goals/82 games... so only 1 goal more than Bulis... yet... he had 41 assists... for a total of 19 more than Bulis. So 20 points more.

One would think that Johnson, and it had been heard before, would make his teammates better than Bulis did. So expect more goals from the players with whom he will play.
Lets start with saying that I loved these moves Gainey did, and getting Johnson in my mind was every bit as important (if not more) than signing Samsonov.

Being quite a fan of stats myself, I also like your reasoning.

However, if you're going to use stats as a way to prove something, you got to go all the way...

Bulis:
05-06: 15:37 (1:37 PP)
03-04: 17:06
02-03: 15:42 (0:31 PP)
01-02: 13:33

Johnson:
05-06: 16:34 (3:32 PP)
03-04: 19:50
02-03: 19:38 (3:02 PP)
01-02: 15:48

Those would be the icetimes per game including power-play icetime for 05-06 and 02-03. On 03-04 Johnson played only 11 games due injury. You WILL get more points with +2 min more power-play time per game.

But hey, Johnson plays PP because he's so good setup guy. Bulis was given chances to play in more offensive role, but just wasn't that effective.


Last edited by aHab: 07-17-2006 at 12:11 AM.
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Old
07-17-2006, 12:09 AM
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Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by type_v View Post
What about defensively?
Johnson is not better than Bulis (maybe a little worse) in his own end. Samsonov is an offense first forward like Zednik so about par. No rookie to crack the lineup will have the positioning and smarts of Sundstrom.

The new group will most definitely be better, but not in every single aspect of the game.
Actually I did the +/- analysis as well (see data in my first post). Though, it is much more difficult to have tangible results to compare (since that data is much more dependant on the strenght of the rest of the team with you are playing).

Johnson was +6 over Bulis in the +/- section... and that's excellent, considering that Phoenix was terrible over all in that section.

Samsonov was +7 over Zednik....

And on average, the rookies (+1) were a little better than Sundstrom (-2).

So nothing lead us to believe that we will tank defensively, actually if anything, that will be the opposite.

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07-17-2006, 12:10 AM
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Definately an upgrade.

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07-17-2006, 12:10 AM
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Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HabuseMoi View Post
Now do that with every team and tell us if we make the playoffs =P

great post hehe
Yeah right

Thanks for the compliment, but I will pass on the offer

I arbitrarily think we will make the playoffs.

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07-17-2006, 12:16 AM
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Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aHab View Post
Lets start with saying that I loved these moves Gainey did, and getting Johnson in my mind was every bit as important (if not more) than signing Samsonov.

Being quite a fan of stats myself, I also like your reasoning.

However, if you're going to use stats as a way to prove something, you got to go all the way...

Bulis:
05-06: 15:37 (1:37 PP)
03-04: 17:06
02-03: 15:42 (0:31 PP)
01-02: 13:33

Johnson:
05-06: 16:34 (3:32 PP)
03-04: 19:50
02-03: 19:38 (3:02 PP)
01-02: 15:48

Those would be the icetimes per game including power-play icetime for 05-06 and 02-03. On 03-04 Johnson played only 11 games due injury. You WILL get more points with +2 min more power-play time per game.

But hey, Johnson plays PP because he's so good setup guy. Bulis was given chances to play in more offensive role, but just wasn't that effective.
True, but I did get lazy here, in terms of full data analysis

But I took into consideration that Johnson would see his ice time go down (more or less moving into a 3rd line guy), and that considering that Samsonov did play with Thornton which is not on our team... that is why I arbitrarily reduced the impact from +39 to +20...

But one thing for sure, Zednik and Bulis are not great at passing whereas the other two are much better.

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07-17-2006, 12:24 AM
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Nice breakdown of the situation. Seeing your thread title, I was expecting repeated clichés and uninteresting ranting. Glad to be wrong! Good post!

The locker room situation will definilately be better. No more Dagenais-Theo, no more unhappy Zednik-Bulis-Sundstrom. Just our Finnish captain and a good veteran core with good attitudes, great Russian assets (best Euro players IMO) and a great, great bunch of young players eager to play and to learn. The only rumbles could come from a goalie, either Huet o Abischer. But I'm not worried. Things are looking up baby!

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07-17-2006, 12:41 AM
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Kostitsyn alone > Zednik Sundstrom Bulis

Ryder's spot is in big trouble.

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07-17-2006, 12:52 AM
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this is the best post so far concerning our new acquisitions, very refreshing from the traditional "ZEDNIK IS NOTHING SINCE THE MCLAREN HIT!!" arguments that float around here. Nice post!!

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07-17-2006, 02:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by type_v View Post
What about defensively?
Johnson is not better than Bulis (maybe a little worse) in his own end. Samsonov is an offense first forward like Zednik so about par. No rookie to crack the lineup will have the positioning and smarts of Sundstrom.

The new group will most definitely be better, but not in every single aspect of the game.
Johnson is very good defensively. I saw him cover one goal leads late in games when he was in Phoenix and Gretzky was crazy not always putting him there to protect the lead. Anyway, I'll be watching to see what Johnson does in Montreal, because imho, Gretzky is a terrible coach from what I've seen.

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07-17-2006, 08:48 AM
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Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey View Post
this is the best post so far concerning our new acquisitions, very refreshing from the traditional "ZEDNIK IS NOTHING SINCE THE MCLAREN HIT!!" arguments that float around here. Nice post!!
Thanks Joey for the raving compliment.

It was interesting to see that Zednik came out with just as many goals (ratio) than Samsonov over the last 3 years.

It helps to try to be objective when analyzing a trade.

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07-17-2006, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by type_v View Post
What about defensively?
Johnson is not better than Bulis (maybe a little worse) in his own end. Samsonov is an offense first forward like Zednik so about par. No rookie to crack the lineup will have the positioning and smarts of Sundstrom.

The new group will most definitely be better, but not in every single aspect of the game.
It's been said before in this thread, but i will repeat. Johnson is a GREAT defensive player. If he put up more offense and played in a larger market, he would be a Selke candidate IMO.

Another aspect about these guys is that MJ and SS are RH shots, something we clearly lacked last year. The second PP unit did not have the Ryder presence on the half boards for those one-timers.

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07-17-2006, 09:07 AM
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You know Pere Noel, you didn't need to make such a big post, the title sums it all !

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07-17-2006, 09:17 AM
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Jeez I go to the Dominican on vacation for a week, I come back and we've acquired Mike Johnson and Sergei Samsonov!

Looks like the move hungry posters have been fed

Seriously though, good moves by the Habs, they acquired to proven players who are most importantly, right handed shots, and are simply better players than the one's they're replacing.

They now have a right handed shot on lines 1 to 3 and maybe even line 4 depending on who makes the team, this may seem like a minor detail, but I belive it'll make us a much better offensive team.

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07-17-2006, 09:32 AM
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Excellent empirical analysis, good to see someone finally analyzing the situation from an opinionless numbers point of view.

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07-17-2006, 10:03 AM
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Pere Noel
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Originally Posted by Dutch View Post
You know Pere Noel, you didn't need to make such a big post, the title sums it all !
I know you are kidding. Yet, I did provide an executive summary. But I think a deeper analysis was needed (much better than to say so and so su*ks)

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07-17-2006, 10:17 AM
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More gifts more gifts Pere Noel

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Old
07-17-2006, 11:08 AM
  #25
Pere Noel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smail View Post
Johnson is very good defensively. I saw him cover one goal leads late in games when he was in Phoenix and Gretzky was crazy not always putting him there to protect the lead. Anyway, I'll be watching to see what Johnson does in Montreal, because imho, Gretzky is a terrible coach from what I've seen.
I think Johnson is a great acquisition.

I think that there are some coaches and GM that don't like some type of players... and get rid of them... you have to seek such GMs and coaches and take advantage of that.

I think Gretzky is one of them, I think Keenan is one of them too.

Johnson became available because Phoenix signed Laraque and Roenick. Good luck with both of those.

I would understand the Roenick gamble if he were a great leader... but he is not at all. He is more of a me-myseld-and-I player... One should question is integrity and credibility when he says he wants to play for a Canadian team and he ends up signing for Phoenix... Probably the last Canadian team there is.

I think we will thankful to Phoenix at the end of the season.

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