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Old
11-14-2003, 02:00 PM
  #26
Walsher
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
I don't think you can say the top two lines have been 'weak links' simply because they are all minus players.

Those guys are playing top-line minutes a night, compared to the RPM which plays significantly less. If you played the RPM line 20 minutes a game, they'd be minus players in a real big hurry.

Furthermore, the top line of the Oilers is matching up against opposition top lines, is it not?

I, like the original poster, likes +/- when it comes to the full team. I don't even mind it for defenseman. But for top line forwards who are a big minus, it doesn't do them justice. Same goes for top line forwards with big +'s. I mean, Milan Hejduk for a +48 or +50 or whatever last year, but we all know Hejduk is no better defensivly than, say, Ryan Smyth.

I believe +/- only works in relation to other players on the same team getting similar ice time. That's when the stat can come in handy the most, I'd say.
Frankly the Oilers line that is the most on the positive of the plus side is RPM and they play against the oppositions best line not the 1st or 2nd line.

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11-14-2003, 02:01 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by igor
Well, I've been trying to think of a nice way to say this ... but there really isn't one. And as an unpaid defender of common sense ... your goofy, wildly incorrect posts drive me to the point of responding.
I still agree with igor.

Of course mizral can post here any time he wants - that is his right. But if he wants to make silly opinionated statements in an area where guys like igor have spent A LOT of time crunching the numbers and doing real analysis - you should expect a less than flattering response. It's kind of a respect issue IMO.

For me anyway - igors opinion is usually based on some evidence and I appreciate the work he puts into his posts - mizrals posts are usually based on vapour and a pretty clear bias against the Oilers. Both have the right to post anything they want - but IMO mizral's credibility on all things Oiler is suspect.

Now don't make me come back here - I promised to exit this thread once already

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Old
11-14-2003, 02:18 PM
  #28
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Asiaoil,

I don't think hockey is a game that can be reduced to numbers so easily as Igor thinks it can. That is why I do not post numbers quite so much as him. Particularly things like Even Strength +/- which I particularly think doesn't do many players justice at all.

I think the perceived 'bias against the Oilers' is quite funny. Most of my friends who watch hockey think I am *too* flattering of Oiler players. I think the problem is, you guys seem to only read or remember the bad things I say. Yeah, I do have certain opinions of a few Oiler players & management that aren't as flattering as others. But down the line, I am pretty pro-Oiler. Hell, as I'm writing this, I'm wearing an Oilers jersey (which I recently got lettered by the way. I went with York, as I was too afriad to go for Chimera as I feel he may not stick.. MacTavish doesn't seem to like him). I think I do have more objectivity than some here. I do think many of you look at this team a bit too glowingly, and ought to be more critical of them. Particularly coaching, management, and goaltending - all three of which seem to get a free ride no matter what the outcome.. though that's changing slowly with goaltending.

But hey, when you boil it down, it's all just opinions. Whether it's me saying I don't like Jani Rita, or you guys thinking the Sedin's don't belong in the NHL. I never profess to be all knowing, but for whatever reason, I come off that way to some people.

All I ask is that I be viewed as an Oiler fan here, not as a Oiler-hater. I think people assume, since I am a Canuck fan, there is no possible way I could enjoy the Oilers, and assume immediatly that I am 'the enemy', when nothing could be further from the truth. Too much assumption. Leads to bad things

Sorry for hijacking the thread. Actually, the team +/- numbers are some of my favorite statistics, and I do feel they are very interesting. Apperantly Igor/Vic ferrari does as well, over on Oilfans.com he posted a thread involving them.

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11-14-2003, 02:22 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walsher
Frankly the Oilers line that is the most on the positive of the plus side is RPM and they play against the oppositions best line not the 1st or 2nd line.
That was the only thing I was unsure of. I do remember some games earlier this season where the RPM was seemingly not being used as much, if at all, and the line Smyth was on was matching up against the opponents top line or second line. The last Oilers game I saw was around a week ago, so I am a little 'out of the loop' as of the last couple games. Though I'll be watching the Heritage Classic game this weekend - which I am very much looking forward to.

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Old
11-14-2003, 02:52 PM
  #30
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PLAYER GP G A PTS +/- PIM PP SH GW GT S PCTG

RAFFI TORRES 16 7 4 11 3 17 2 0 1 0 34 20.6
RYAN SMYTH 16 5 6 11 5- 14 2 0 0 0 45 11.1
MIKE YORK 16 4 7 11 7 2 0 1 0 0 38 10.5
ALES HEMSKY 15 3 8 11 5- 4 2 0 1 0 10 30.0
ETHAN MOREAU 16 5 4 9 9 32 0 1 1 1 42 11.9
FERNANDO PISANI 16 3 6 9 10 21 0 0 0 1 22 13.6
MARTY REASONER 13 2 6 8 7 8 0 1 0 0 21 9.5
STEVE STAIOS 16 2 6 8 0 10 1 0 1 0 30 6.7
SHAWN HORCOFF 16 2 4 6 8- 20 0 1 0 0 15 13.3
RADEK DVORAK 16 1 5 6 6 8 1 0 0 0 38 2.6
MARC BERGERON 12 2 3 5 5 14 0 0 0 0 26 7.7
CORY CROSS 14 2 3 5 0 20 1 0 1 0 15 13.3
JASON SMITH 16 2 3 5 7 16 0 0 0 0 19 10.5
BRAD ISBISTER 11 2 2 4 2- 19 0 0 1 0 14 14.3
ERIC BREWER 16 0 4 4 1- 16 0 0 0 0 17 0.0
JASON CHIMERA 14 2 1 3 2- 16 0 0 1 0 17 11.8
JARRET STOLL 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 25.0
SCOTT FERGUSON 16 0 2 2 5 24 0 0 0 0 13 0.0
PETER SARNO 5 1 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 50.0
ALEXEI SEMENOV 6 1 0 1 1- 6 1 0 0 0 5 20.0
TONY SALMELAINEN 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 11 0.0
GEORGES LARAQUE 11 0 1 1 5- 20 0 0 0 0 7 0.0

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Old
11-14-2003, 03:23 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
That was the only thing I was unsure of. I do remember some games earlier this season where the RPM was seemingly not being used as much, if at all, and the line Smyth was on was matching up against the opponents top line or second line. The last Oilers game I saw was around a week ago, so I am a little 'out of the loop' as of the last couple games. Though I'll be watching the Heritage Classic game this weekend - which I am very much looking forward to.
More often than not this year, it has been RPM on against the other team's big lines. Perhaps it was the road games you were thinking of. You can't match lines well as the road team.

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Old
11-14-2003, 03:43 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
NOW LISTEN,

I have seen so many people hack on Mizral for his opinion too damn often. Mizral may be a lot of things but disrespectful as some of you have been is never one of them.

Some of you Oiler fans make me sick.
My, aren't you Christlike. :p

Lighten up there, holy one.

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Old
11-14-2003, 03:47 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
mizrals posts are usually based on vapour and a pretty clear bias against the Oilers.
For some reason I find this comment funny. Poor Mizral has been ragged a lot today.

Honestly, Mizral probably didn't make the most informed comments and people like Asiaoil are the true reason I read these boards. At the same time, though, I don't think we have to be as critical when Mizral does. It's just as easy to simply ignore Mizral rather than sharpen knives and start dicing.

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Old
11-14-2003, 03:50 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by riles
RPM doesn't quite play as much but its usually fairly close, and RPM plays against the oppositions top line as much as possible and outscores them more often than not.
Yup, good eye riles. Checked the facts and they show you to be right. When you look at who was on the ice for the other team ... when their +'s and -'s were gathered ... it's a veritable allstar team.

And when you factor in the huge amount of PP, PK and 4on4 icetime played in todays game ... RPM plays a lot of minutes. Pisani plays more 5on5 ice-time than Hemsky, for example. Stats are only deceiving if you let them be IMHO

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:01 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theoil
I am a big fan of the plus minus look at how a team is going. I know you play for wins and ties but sometimes that can be misleading during the course of a season. Goals for and goals against at the end of the season pretty much line you up in exactly the order you finish in. The team with the +22 prettty much always ends up ahead of the team with the +15 at the end of the season. Early in the year you can get a bit of skewed perspective if you just look at the point totals. Not always enough input to get a real idea of pattern. But most teams now are at about 16 games. Twenty percent of the season is done and I was wondering where the strength in the league is this year. This is what I found based upon goals for and against.

The Eastern Conference is a Plus 14 and the Western Conference (of course) is a collective -14. This is a big change over the past 3 or 4 years that I have been doing this. Of the big 4 in the west of the last few years (Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, St. Louis) they are all pretty mediocre. Blues +8,Wings +8, Avs +10, Stars -7.

The best Divison in the league continues to be the Northwest with a +21. The Atlantic is second with a +12 and that is a little bit skewed because they have the worst team in the league (Pittsburgh) with a -27 just 14 games into the season (ouch). The only other division in the league with a plus is the NE at +2. The SE is finally respectable at 0. The Pacific is worst at -27. Every team in the Pacific is a minus except for LA.

The best team in the league is Vancouver with a +21 with Philly second at +17 and Ottawa third at +15. This puts all three of these teams more than a goal per game above their goals against. As mentioned this is a bad season to be Penguins fan at -27.

Just a little snapshot with a fifth of the season gone by.
Well, in an effort to be a positive guy ... you are absolutely right. And that's well stated. Though I'm sure you don't need to be told that.

Mudcrutch wrote some really heavy, but interesting, stuff on this idea earlier in the year (where did he go, anyways?). But your hitting on the heart of what makes a team successful ... and the principle criterion for the way that oddsmakers calculate odds.

The strange thing to me is the relative weakness of the west this year. I think that will change through the year though ... I'd bet the west will be dominant over the east again by the end of the year. All teams are the sum of their players (SEE Bowman) ... and there just hasn't been enough of a talent shift to the east yet, not from what I've seen.

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:16 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
...
I don't agree with Mirzal even 50% of the time.....But I will fight forever for his right to say his opinion.
So presumeably you would also fight for my right to state my opinion. No?

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11-14-2003, 04:19 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nikeisevil
For some reason I find this comment funny. Poor Mizral has been ragged a lot today.

Honestly, Mizral probably didn't make the most informed comments and people like Asiaoil are the true reason I read these boards. At the same time, though, I don't think we have to be as critical when Mizral does. It's just as easy to simply ignore Mizral rather than sharpen knives and start dicing.
This from the guy who posted a crying baby pic and ridiculed Mizral earlier in the thread (please don't edit it down).

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:25 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
I still agree with igor.

Of course mizral can post here any time he wants - that is his right. But if he wants to make silly opinionated statements in an area where guys like igor have spent A LOT of time crunching the numbers and doing real analysis - you should expect a less than flattering response. It's kind of a respect issue IMO.

For me anyway - igors opinion is usually based on some evidence and I appreciate the work he puts into his posts - mizrals posts are usually based on vapour and a pretty clear bias against the Oilers. Both have the right to post anything they want - but IMO mizral's credibility on all things Oiler is suspect.

Now don't make me come back here - I promised to exit this thread once already
Props Asiaoil. I could have torn Mizral's tragic logic apart ... but its to the point that its repetitive and tedious. And I have absolutely no problem with anyone stating an opinion or bashing me.

LMHF basically called me an idiot a week or so ago. Over whether or not Hemsky should be benched for a game. But no offense taken ... I think he might be a bit nuts, but he'd be a helluva a guy to watch an Oilers game with. And he really cares, and that matters ... at least to me. Who knows who is right, and who cares ... we're here to share our opinions and insights, nothing more.

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:35 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
It's much easier to be a + player when you're playing 12 minutes a night compared to 18. This is not to say that Smyth & Hemsky have been amazing defensivly - clearly not. But in particular regards to Smyth, being on the ice so much hurts him - particularly when the Oilers play bad of course.
Not always true, Mizral. A large part of that depends upon who that line is playing up against. RPM plays a major amount of their minutes trying to check the opponent's top lines... Regardless of their playing time per game, they absolutely CANNOT afford to "play bad". Because of the calibre of the line they play against... if they play poorly defensively, their +/- will indeed plummet dramatically.

For a player like Smyth or Hemsky playing on the first line, they face relatively weaker offensive players and have the ability to score in bunches. Since they are expected to score and will eventually, their +/-will fluctuate much more quickly than those of a checking line. Essentially, what I am saying is that if the Smyth line switched places with RPM in regards to icetime/opposing lines... the Smyth line would be much WORSE than what it is previously while RPM would be higher.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Same goes for the defenseman. Probobly the Oilers best defenseman so far this year, Steve Staios is Even, whereas arguably the worst defensivly, Marc-Andre Bergeron, is a +5. To say Staios isn't doing his job is just plain wrong. Same goes for Smyth & Hemsky.
It is plainly known on this board that MacT and Huddy "shelter" the third pairing for most of the games. They do not play nearly the same quality of opponents that a Smith/Staios encounter.

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:39 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
So presumeably you would also fight for my right to state my opinion. No?

Props Asiaoil. I could have torn Mizral's tragic logic apart ... but its to the point that its repetitive and tedious. And I have absolutely no problem with anyone stating an opinion or bashing me.
As long as attacking another person isn't part of it.

And what do you mean Christlike? Was that a shot?

And I have a problem with people bashing you igor or Mirzal or anyone. But Mirzal gets it the most...

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:54 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Props Asiaoil. I could have torn Mizral's tragic logic apart ... but its to the point that its repetitive and tedious. And I have absolutely no problem with anyone stating an opinion or bashing me.

LMHF basically called me an idiot a week or so ago. Over whether or not Hemsky should be benched for a game. But no offense taken ... I think he might be a bit nuts, but he'd be a helluva a guy to watch an Oilers game with. And he really cares, and that matters ... at least to me. Who knows who is right, and who cares ... we're here to share our opinions and insights, nothing more.
LMHF in his tenure i think has managed to call everyone an idiot

as for the reason of the post is there a place where it breaks down and displays the ice time spent (on avg per game and total so far) even strenght, pp, pk time?

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Old
11-14-2003, 04:55 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawnDemon
that's pretty good - especially for a guy who writes "u" instead of "you". (sorry, l33t speak is a pet peeve of mine)

anyway, nicely presented. lets add one more to the pile:

"the wisest man is he who professes no knowledge"
i'll add another

"better to keep your mouth shut and let people think you are an idiot then to open your mouth and confirm it"

as for the stuff on mizral iv been reading the boards for a long time and plenty of Mizral posts of which I agree with Igor some can be provacative but I have never taken offence to any of Mizral's post yes i have thought how the hell can a sane person say such a thing but for the most part i enjoy mizral's post and his angle that he brings to the board. Yes Igor is a bloody processor when it comes to number crunching and statistical analysis but at the end of the day we've all let out vapour now and again

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:06 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momentai
...
It is plainly known on this board that MacT and Huddy "shelter" the third pairing for most of the games. They do not play nearly the same quality of opponents that a Smith/Staios encounter.
First off, the first bit of your post I agree with 100%. And while it wouldn't be too hard too prove .... I'm too lazy, and it should be obvious to Oiler fans anyways.

But on your second part of this, the bit I've quoted ... I think you're wrong. Which surprises the hell out of me ... because I was sure that was the case too.

I went too prove just what you've said a couple of days ago ... because last year Pisa's +'s almost all came against the leagues worst EV+/- players ... and while playing with the Oilers best in this regard ... I thought it would be the same with Bergie. But it isn't.

To me Bergeron is like this year's Reasoner ... I don't really have faith in the guy by gut feel, the giveaways stick in my head I guess. But every time I try to prove it ... it goes the other way.

I was convinced that Reasoner just had an extraordinary string of luck ... but on a pressure forecheck team like the Oilers, the centre has a tonne of responsibility, and NOBODY is that lucky.

I went to prove that Marty wasn't playing against quality opposition ... turns out he was. Not as much as Marchant and a few others ... but still. I had an ugly feeling that RPM would melt down this year.

Hell, I was still thinking the Oilers should trade Marty while he was looking like a player ... but its beyond the point of rational argument now, I concede on the Reasoner front. The ultimate compliment to Reasoner is the way the Oilers game odds took a pounding as soon as Reasoner's injury was announced (they didn't give a fig about the Comrie holdout) ... and they've stayed ugly for the Oilers. If the oddsmakers love you ... you're good. Or at least you have a significant impact on the results of your team.

Anyhow ... the point of this whole pre-amble is this; Bergeron is looking like this year's Reasoner. When the Oilers are scoring with Bergie on the ice ... it's against decent competition. I'm not ruling out luck just yet ... but to my mind its getting to the point where its a helluva coincidence. Still early though, could be luck.

But credit where credit is due ... the guy is getting results. I hope he can keep it going. And didn't he lead his team (and the AHL) in +/- last year?

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:08 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
The last Oilers game I saw was around a week ago, so I am a little 'out of the loop' as of the last couple games. Though I'll be watching the Heritage Classic game this weekend - which I am very much looking forward to.
It's next weekend Mizral.

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:13 PM
  #45
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Mizral

Funny thread.

I might be a bit harsh in calling him a troll, but he basically has a lot of the attributes. He knows how to press all of the Oiler fan buttons, that's certainly obvious by some of the replies he gets and some of the emotions he raises (in myself included).

He has opinions--though I sometimes think some of them are tounge in cheek in order to get a rise out of us--but if you take them for what they are, opinions, and watch the aftermath, he is rather entertaining when he doesn't cross the line beyond outright Trolling (which he does from time to time )

On the other hand, he is generally well informed about the team beyond what the die-hards who watch every minute of play and read every iota of print that comes out about the Oilers. His saving grace-IMO-, that doesn't make him an outright evil Troll, is that I don't think he really takes it all as seriously as he writes.

No offense intended Mizral...

p.s. I really think Miz is a closet Oiler fan, stuck in a Vancouver fan body.

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:15 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabi_sultan
LMHF in his tenure i think has managed to call everyone an idiot

as for the reason of the post is there a place where it breaks down and displays the ice time spent (on avg per game and total so far) even strenght, pp, pk time?
Yup. NHL.com. Just go to the stats section.

And it is a great point rabi. 5on5, PP, PK .... they are competely different aspects of the game, and if you don't divorce them there is no point in using stats at all. (And that's NOT an IMHO comment ... that's just plain old true )

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:27 PM
  #47
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In my view, Mizral often posts disguised to look like ...except for his Marty Reasoner takes, which have been just .

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11-14-2003, 05:35 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilers_guy_eddie
In my view, Mizral often posts disguised to look like ...except for his Marty Reasoner takes, which have been just .
Lol, homer.

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Old
11-14-2003, 05:53 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilers_guy_eddie
In my view, Mizral often posts disguised to look like ...except for his Marty Reasoner takes, which have been just .
It's funny when it's somebody else hammering against the wall.

I remember a thread where you and Lowetide were trying to drive common sense through the eye of a needle with Mizral (not a shot here, God bless everyone). ... and it was frickin hilarious. I was laughing out loud, literally. You guys would write articulate paragraphs, to no end, wouldn't matter.

It was something to do with drafting ... I remember I had a graph from a statistician that would have proven LT's point exactly (fresh off the press from an oilswell link) ... but I decided to sit back and watch instead of getting into it. I wanted to see if Lowetide really does have a breaking point

As aggravating as it may be ... I guess the key is to not get involved.

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Old
11-14-2003, 06:41 PM
  #50
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igor, your numbers are without parrallel and are a big part of the attraction of this board. They are not the only attraction though. Mizral spends a lot of time at many other boards and brings other points of view. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are unsubstantiated.

Without guys like Mizral, this board will suffer from failure caused by a limited gene pool. Without Igor, we become uninformed. Without lowetide, we become oilfans.

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