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Canadiens' salary cap situation in 2007/08.

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Old
10-02-2006, 03:06 AM
  #1
leafaholix*
 
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Canadiens' salary cap situation in 2007/08.

How do you guys see this being sorted out?

UFA's after this season:

Radek Bonk
Mike Johnson
Aaron Downey
Criag Rivet
Andrei Markov
Sheldon Souray
Janne Niinimaa
David Aebischer

RFA's after this season:

Michael Ryder (c/h: 2.2M)
Andrei Kostitsyn (c/h: 0.785)
Christopher Higgins (c/h: 0.673)
Alexander Perezhogin (c/h: 0.627)
Tomas Plekanec (c/h: 0.450)
Mike Komisarek (c/h: 0.947)
Dan Jancevski (c/h: 0.450)
JP Cote (c/h: 0.495)

Signed for 2007/08:

Saku Koivu - 4.75
Alexei Kovalev - 4.50
Sergei Samsonov - 3.525
Cristobal Huet - 2.875 (cap hit)
Francis Bouillon - 1.875
Mathieu Dandenault - 1.75
Steve Begin - 1.057 (cap hit)
Garth Murray - 0.600 (cap hit)
Mark Streit - 0.600

CAP HIT FOR 2007/08 CURRENTLY: $19,632,000 (8 players)


UFA-to-be expectations?

Criag Rivet - Current c/h is $2.565, could get raise to $2.75M-3.25M with a good season.
Andrei Markov - Curreny c/h is $1.750, should get $5M+.
Sheldon Souray - Current c/h is 2.318, a good season could fetch him $3M-$4M.
Mike Johnson - A good season (50+ points) may get him $2M+ (from 1.786M).
Radek Bonk - Let go, use his 2.394 cap hit elsewhere.
Aaron Downey - Keep or replace at league minimum, cheaper than entry-level-contract.
Janne Niinimaa - Overpaid at $2.47M this season, let him go and use it on Markov.
David Aebischer - Current c/h is $1.9M, too pricey for #1b/#2 goalie. Let him go, replaced by Danis. Or if he's #1 by season's end, trade Huets $2.875M cap hit.

RFA-to-be expectations?

Michael Ryder
(c/h: 2.2M) - A good season may see his $2.2M rise to $3M, possibly?
Andrei Kostitsyn (c/h: 0.785) - Similar salary.
Christopher Higgins (c/h: 0.673) - 50 point season could see him go up to around $1M.
Alexander Perezhogin (c/h: 0.627) - Depends on season, a breakout season means rise in salary. Another standstill season means similar salary, shorter term.
Tomas Plekanec (c/h: 0.450) - Similar to Higgins.
Mike Komisarek (c/h: 0.947) - Improving player, could see $1.25M I think.
Dan Jancevski (c/h: 0.450) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.
JP Cote (c/h: 0.495) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.


Speculating for RFA's: Approximately $8,500,000 to keep/replace them all (5 regulars, 1 two-way, 2 minor leaguers). From approximately $6,717,000. Increase of about $1.8M to keep/replace RFA's.

Signed + returning RFA's:

Saku Koivu - 4.75
Alexei Kovalev - 4.50
Sergei Samsonov - 3.525
Steve Begin - 1.057 (cap hit)
Garth Murray - 0.600 (cap hit)
Michael Ryder (c/h: 2.2M) - A good season may see his $2.2M rise to $3M, possibly?
Andrei Kostitsyn (c/h: 0.785) - Similar salary.
Christopher Higgins (c/h: 0.673) - 50 point season could see him go up to around $1M.
Alexander Perezhogin (c/h: 0.627) - Depends on season, a breakout season means rise in salary. Another standstill season means similar salary, shorter term.
Tomas Plekanec (c/h: 0.450) - Similar to Higgins.

Francis Bouillon - 1.875
Mathieu Dandenault - 1.75
Mark Streit - 0.600
Mike Komisarek (c/h: 0.947) - Improving player, could see $1.25M I think.
Dan Jancevski (c/h: 0.450) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.
JP Cote (c/h: 0.495) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.


Cristobal Huet
- 2.875 (cap hit)

TOTAL PAYROLL:
$28,132,000 (17 players, 10+6+1)

Remaining players to sign/replace:

Andrei Markov - Will demand big money, $5M+. Will likely compare his worth to Jovanovski, McCabe, Kubina, Gonchar, McKee, etc. While the Montreal Canadiens will probably look to keep him at around $4.25M, similar to Tomas Kaberle. Montreal will most likely end up signing him before he hits the open market, because he may be the top defenceman on the market on July 1st, and some team will overpay for him.

Craig Rivet - Could look at contracts like Willie Mitchell ($3.5M) or Jay McKee ($4M) just to pull himself up to $3M. If they don't sign Rivet, they will have to replace him with another #3/4 defenceman.

Sheldon Souray
- Kind of a catch-22 for the Montreal Canadiens, he could have a good season and break out of what was considered not so great last year, but it's his contract year and it may mean he may be a little too pricey for the Habs on July 1st. Just as well, since it seems like most Hab fans aren't that attached to him and wouldn't be that hurt to see him go. The Habs will have to replace him with another defenceman they consider good enough to play in a #2-4 role for them.

Janne Niinimaa - His $2.47M this season should be injected into other players. He's a depth player, his departure will not mean much to the Habs, but his disappearing salary will mean a lot.

Mike Johnson
- He's a good player, at worst a top end third line forward. Already being paid about $1.8M, I think a good season of about 50-60 points can see him land a contract worth $2M quite easily. Habs should keep him. If they don't, one of the youngsters better step up, namely one of Perezhogin or Kostitsyn.

Radek Bonk - Great depth player, overpaid though. His departure is all but certain, similar example to Niinimaa. Use the money your offloading with his departure and use it on keeping RFA's and UFA's you want back from this season.

David Aebischer - He or Huet are expandable, based on performance. Ideal situation would be for Aebischer to go back to his Colorado days, sign him to a couple years at around the same price and then trade Huet. Yann Danis can be a good backup next season, and you've got Price coming up in about 2-4 years. That way you invest in a proven goaltender who's cheaper than Huet.

Aaron Downey - You can get another scrapper for the league minimum. No big deal. Or keep him at that price.

Speculation on UFA's: Sign Markov at $5M, keep Rivet at $3M, let Souray go and sign a replacement at $3.5M. Let Bonk, Niinimaa, and Aebischer go. Sign Downey.

Signed + returning RFA's + returning UFA's:

Saku Koivu - 4.75
Alexei Kovalev - 4.50
Sergei Samsonov - 3.525
Mike Johnson - 2M
Steve Begin - 1.057 (cap hit)
Garth Murray - 0.600 (cap hit)
Michael Ryder (c/h: 2.2M) - A good season may see his $2.2M rise to $3M, possibly?
Andrei Kostitsyn (c/h: 0.785) - Similar salary.
Christopher Higgins (c/h: 0.673) - 50 point season could see him go up to around $1M.
Alexander Perezhogin (c/h: 0.627) - Depends on season, a breakout season means rise in salary. Another standstill season means similar salary, shorter term.
Tomas Plekanec (c/h: 0.450) - Similar to Higgins.
Aaron Downey - $450,000

Andrei Markov - $5M
Craig Rivet - $3M
Replacement for Souray - $3.5M
Francis Bouillon - 1.875
Mathieu Dandenault - 1.75
Mark Streit - 0.600
Mike Komisarek (c/h: 0.947) - Improving player, could see $1.25M I think.
Dan Jancevski (c/h: 0.450) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.
JP Cote (c/h: 0.495) - Depth player, replaceable. League minimum.


Cristobal Huet
- 2.875 (cap hit)
Yann Danis - $0.8??

TOTAL PAYROLL:
$42,830,000 (23 players, 12+9+2)

Thoughts?

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Old
10-02-2006, 03:08 AM
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MacHabs93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by your_rogers_bill View Post
Thoughts?
Maybe once I'm done analysing everything!

Seriously though, awesome post/research!

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10-02-2006, 03:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacHabs93 View Post
Maybe once I'm done analysing everything!

Seriously though, awesome post/research!

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10-02-2006, 03:25 AM
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Criag Rivet - could be 3.5 million area
Andrei Markov - should get $5M+.-AGREE
Sheldon Souray - probally $4.5 MILLION
Mike Johnson - i think Johnson will get closer to $3 million
Radek Bonk -if he wants to continue to play the defensive role you resign him at a lower salary . there absoulty nothing wrong with the game he is playing now .

Aaron Downey - Downey's last season i belive .
Janne Niinimaa - Lets see how he loooks after 82 games .
David Aebischer - i wouldnt cry if Abby left
Michael Ryder- $4.25- $4.5 MILLION thats what he is goona be worth

Christopher Higgins- get out the check book and closer to 2 million per season

Tomas Plekanec -id say a good season of him as a 2nd line center were looking at 1.25 million

Mike Komisarek (c/h: 0.947) - Improving player, could see $1.25M I think.sounds not out of the question


Last edited by Artyukhin*: 10-02-2006 at 03:42 AM.
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Old
10-02-2006, 03:28 AM
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leafaholix*
 
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hahaha, last thing we need is people quoting the original post. lol.

it'll make for a loooooong scroll.

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10-02-2006, 03:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug mckenzie View Post
Criag Rivet - could be 3.5 million area
Sheldon Souray - probally $4.5 MILLION
Mike Johnson - i think Johnson will get closer to $3 million
I think these are a bit much.

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10-02-2006, 04:21 AM
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Some of your signings of the UFA/RFA are a little conservative. Bob gainey has been known to overpay a bit.

All in all, there will be a huge shakeup after the end of the season. I hope this core stays though. Higgins-Pleks-Lattendresse-Koivu-Kovalev-Markov- have to stay.
I'd like to keep guys like Ryder-Sourray-Bonk-Perez-Johnson-Begin-Samsonov.

Rivet-Niinima-Dandenault-Huet-Aebischer-Bouillon-Streit- should only be kept if their cost/performance ratio is worth it.

All in all, good work amassing all the raw data your_rogers_bill.

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Old
10-02-2006, 07:00 AM
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Great post and I'm not sure we do need a replacement for Souray.
Markov, Rivet, Dandenault, Bouillon, Komisarek, Cote and Streit would to the job I think.When Souray was hurt Komisarek and Cote were great together. We have a lot of youngsters so if the cost of resigning Markov is having one of our young guys as 6th D or on the 4th line I don't see a problem with that

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10-02-2006, 07:23 AM
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Good work, have to agree on just about everything.

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10-02-2006, 08:05 AM
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RC51
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Yes lots of things on this post is true, but it's way too early.

It will all come down to best deals for best players.
The habs have players due up for signings, but as does everyone else. Who will be available for other UFA's or even RFA's. What will the Habs need most at the end of the season? How much Cap space do we have? Who is available? ( including our own players)

It's likely the Habs still need a top Center ( prospects not ready for next year), it's likely the Habs need a top PP quarterback defence to help Markov( nothing in the prospects there)

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10-02-2006, 08:11 AM
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You forgot about Lats :O

some people will have your head

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10-02-2006, 08:15 AM
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u forgot latendresse, hes cheaper then johnoson at 2m so 1,15 million saved...

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10-02-2006, 08:35 AM
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The season will dictate whether players like Bonk and Johnson are wanted next year. The development of Lapierre and Chipchura will also have a direct effect. For 06-07, they had a need and a target expiry date at the end of this season. The assumption is that continued improvement of solid young players like Plekanec,Higgins,perez, even Ryder, allows them to break in some young forwards next year, the above 2 along with Kostitsyn. The one hole in the lineup, up front is a C. Plejanec and Chipchura will define that, good or bad, this season.

The play of their D will determine the look of the 07-08 D. Markov's situation will be the starting point along with Komisarek's play. Those situations will determine how they approach Rivet and Souray. My gut instinct is that Rivet will extend, Souray won't. They added JN because they could. I don't think they've thought past the short term with him. Right now, there are too many factors, can they get Emelin next year ? Is he ready ? Is O'byrne a year away ? Ask after Christmas, I believe to get a realistic picture. The D situation is much more hazy than up front right now.

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10-02-2006, 08:39 AM
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Markov will have to play quite well to earn 5 mil +. If he plays as he did last season I would expect 4-4.5 max but if he explodes 5+ for sure.
I do not see Souray back next season I believe he will be traded before the deadline. Rivet I would believe will take a pay cut or wage freeze to stay in Montreal.
Also I do not see Johnson coming back.


but great thread I would like to see it become a sticky!

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10-02-2006, 10:48 AM
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hab
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I dont see souray coming back next year, we all know he is not worth 4 plus per

year, but there is no dought with his size, shot and toghness, someone will overpay

for him. I dont see rivet moving because I dont think he wants too...and

who really knows what will happen with markov, I could see gainey puting an offer

on the table after christmas. (I remember a bunch of future UFA being signed in

january last year). We wont know the worth of johnson, bonk or abby until

the end of the year, but I could see all three being gone considering or

prospect depth at both positions...

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