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A NEGATIVE spin to things... read at own risk

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Old
11-19-2003, 07:47 PM
  #1
outKast*
 
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A NEGATIVE spin to things... read at own risk

We've been playing preety well as of late, but even with the signing of Oates, don't expect the Edmonton Oilers to be a Stanley Cup Contender. They're getting there, and are on the cusp of becoming a regular top 10 in the league but they are far from that right now.


Here are some interesting stats that i HOPE the coaching staff want to address.

<font face=impact size=6>Point 1.</font>
We have one of the worst (if not the worst) special teams in the league.

<b>We are ranked 26th place on the PP</b> (11.9% efficiency) 1st - DET (27.6% efficiency) That' almost 16 percent more efficient than us.

<b>Our PK is ranked 27th place</b> (78% efficiency) 1st place goes to NYI with a (90% efficiency) That's 12 percent more than us. As you can see, we have a long way to go.

<sup>Conclusion: Some people have been saying it, and i'll be a man enough to admit it also...<b>The Oilers miss Marchant</b>. He was special teams ace. He was decent on the PP and was an integral part of PK. Replacing Todd is going to be very hard. Reasoner was doing alright untill his unfortunate injury, but lets face it guys...he's not Marchant. </sup>

<font face=impact size=6>Point 2.</font>

Our defense is improving but overall we have to learn to balance the run & gun style and playing defensive, stubborn, forechecking hockey. Most importantly... stop blowing leads DAMMIT!!!. (Like we almost did last night against the Hawks)

<b>Our Defense is ranked 27th </b>[4th worst in the league] <b>with a 2.94GAA</b> (1st NJ 1.75GAA). To be fair we can blame this to our defensive blunders, horrible giveaways, and Tommy's underacheiving play...but the fact remains the same...Our defense needs to improve the most. We already proved we can score by commitie and that's VERY rare to see in a hockey club, but if you're not playing defense then your team sure as hell wont go anywhere.

<sup>Conclusion: The only way to fix this is aquiring a specials team guy or a top 4 Dman who can eat up 20 minutes via trade. I don't care who, or how the Oilers do it, but they need someone to help the Oilers fix some of these problems. </sup>

<font face=impact size=6>Point 3.</font>

The underachieving players need to get out of their slumps! What's the best way to get out of your slumps?? Shoot!!! All a player needs is a goal and the rest will come in bunches. York broke out of his slump, we're still waiting on Dvo and Ales Hemsky (Although not underacheiving by any stretch) needs to shoot more!!! (For the love of God...Shoot Ales!!!). A wise man once said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take..." They won't do it every night obiously, but if some players want to start scoring (cough* Chimera, cough* Horcoff cough* LARAQUE!!!) they need to start shooting.

Also, With the signing of Oates, this should improve, but as of right now...The Oilers are ranked DEAD <b>LAST in faceoff percentage (45.1%)</b> [1st place ANA 55.6%]. This affects our defense and goals-against. We lose the puck more than half the time we take a faceoff. Puck possesion is crucial when it comes to clearing the zone during a PK, or in a tight game.



<sup>Take these lame stats for what they are. Oates will help some of these things but don't expect a whole lot from him. He IS 41 you know hahaha GO OILERS!!!</sup>

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Old
11-19-2003, 07:58 PM
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Reading point 3, it sounds kinda stupid because we are scoring a lot of goals anyways. It's just that it seems that the key to the Oilers success this season is by outworking and outshooting their opponents. This is when the run and gun style is working optimally. I guess the words just didnt come out right.

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11-19-2003, 08:00 PM
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I agree with most of your points. Oates will help the team but I agree, he is no saviour. However, I don't think the Oilers expect him to be either.

I however am much more optimistic. I think this team took a huge step forward, when Tommy Salo got injured. Ty Conklin is proving that he might very well be this teams goaltender for the future.

This reminds me alot of Marty Turco in Dallas a couple of years ago. Eddie Belfour was struggling and having a pretty bad year. A 26 year old Turco carried the Stars to the playoffs. That offseason, Belfour was let go and he signed with Toronto.

This situation seems to echo the Dallas situation imo. A older goalie who played his full 4 years in college, joins an NHL team. He lights it up in the AHL, causing the team to deal it's backup. He then steps up plays solid in the NHL and starts to prove that he is capable of being a #1 NHL goalie.

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11-19-2003, 08:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilflip
The <b>Oilers are ranked 4th in the league in winning percentage(62.5%) when they outshoot their opponents</b>.
You may want to check that stat. I think we are .625 when we are outshot by our oppponent.

 
Old
11-19-2003, 08:05 PM
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thome_26
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Nothing negative about that post. You simply pointed out areas that need to be worked on by the Oilers which every person on this board already knows.

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11-19-2003, 08:05 PM
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OMG thank you i'll fix that

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11-19-2003, 08:09 PM
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Some pretty interesting points OilFlip, I agree the PP and Pk needs alot of work, but no way is Marchant and his $3mil/a worth the "small" contribution he'd make. I think the combination of Stoll and Rasoner will prove to be more impressive in the long run. Besides our horrible PK is related to the untimely goals Salo has been coughing up. our power play needs a puck carrying dman who can bring the kindda game Ninnima brought. i don't think the Marchant helped the powerplay that much when Ninimma was gone. Infact the powerplay looked pretty dreadful during the playoffs. I guess my point is that its too bad Marchant is gone, but for what he was looking for from the Oiler, it not worth it. Besides Lowe made the right choice of bringing in some of the new blood into the system.


GXL

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11-19-2003, 08:09 PM
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Quote:
We are ranked 26th place on the PP (11.9% efficiency) 1st - DET (27.6% efficiency) That' almost 16 percent more efficient than us.
true, and a very disturbing fact, but to counter that, before detroit played tonite, they had scored 21 power play goals, we have scored 11, but each team has 55 goals on the year

i know detroit played tonite, but before that game we had played the same number of games as them....
this shows two things, that our impotent powerplay isnt costing us as bad as it could be, and if we ever got it rolling, we wouldnt need a goalie

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11-19-2003, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GorillazXL
Some pretty interesting points OilFlip, I agree the PP and Pk needs alot of work, but no way is Marchant and his $3mil/a worth the "small" contribution he'd make. I think the combination of Stoll and Rasoner will prove to be more impressive in the long run. Besides our horrible PK is related to the untimely goals Salo has been coughing up. our power play needs a puck carrying dman who can bring the kindda game Ninnima brought. i don't think the Marchant helped the powerplay that much when Ninimma was gone. Infact the powerplay looked pretty dreadful during the playoffs. I guess my point is that its too bad Marchant is gone, but for what he was looking for from the Oiler, it not worth it. Besides Lowe made the right choice of bringing in some of the new blood into the system.


GXL
I guess we can ask ourselves.....would you rather have the Oilers sign Oates 1.95 million for 1 year or sign Marchant for 2+ million for a year to play on our 3rd line. He is playing decent offensively in Columbus.Hey if we had all that extra money, why didnt we keep him?

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11-19-2003, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilflip
I guess we can ask ourselves.....would you rather have the Oilers sign Oates 1.95 million for 1 year or sign Marchant for 2+ million for a year to play on our 3rd line. He is playing decent offensively in Columbus.Hey if we had all that extra money, why didnt we keep him?
Got me there, i don't have any substantial evidence other then a theory: I think a bit of it has to do the unfolding of the whole Comrie situation, I think Comrie/Winter used the fact that Marchant was leaving as leverage for negoiations. With that said Lowe probally intended on signing Comrie with the money that could of been used for Marchant. If Lowe would of known Comrie demanded a trade among other raises then Lowe would of reconsidered Marchant. Now that money is being used for Oates. This ofcourse is all a theory, who knows what Lowe was thinking. What would help remedy our problems is something that has been improving of late...steady goaltending. And some confidence on the PP. Our PK is pretty good, other then some stinkers along the way.


GXL

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11-19-2003, 10:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilflip
Reading point 3, it sounds kinda stupid because we are scoring a lot of goals anyways. It's just that it seems that the key to the Oilers success this season is by outworking and outshooting their opponents. This is when the run and gun style is working optimally. I guess the words just didnt come out right.
Hey what are the Oilers shots for and against stats?

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11-19-2003, 10:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GorillazXL
Got me there, i don't have any substantial evidence other then a theory: I think a bit of it has to do the unfolding of the whole Comrie situation, I think Comrie/Winter used the fact that Marchant was leaving as leverage for negoiations. With that said Lowe probally intended on signing Comrie with the money that could of been used for Marchant. If Lowe would of known Comrie demanded a trade among other raises then Lowe would of reconsidered Marchant. Now that money is being used for Oates. This ofcourse is all a theory, who knows what Lowe was thinking. What would help remedy our problems is something that has been improving of late...steady goaltending. And some confidence on the PP. Our PK is pretty good, other then some stinkers along the way.


GXL
There are many reasons why Marchant wasn't re-signed.

he was mildly insulted in KLO's qualifying offer, but unlike Comrie, Marchant took the offer, played his heart out and proved KLO wrong, upping his market value tremendously.

Also, Marchant was very unhappy when Ninnimaa and Carter were traded as it showed that KLO did not have a commitment to this team and its players. Marchant openly stated his displeasures.

When Marchant was available, he like most, wanted a long-term deal, he got a 7 year deal which there was no way the Oilers could have pulled off in their wildest dreams.

Adam Oates was signed for alot of reasons which have all been documented.

He will help on PP.
He will help on faceoffs.
He will help out in a leadership role.
He will improve Hemsky's play, and act as a mentor.
He will sell tickets.
He will merchandise.
Taking him off the market, means anybody looking to sign him, is now likely looking at Mike Comrie, giving KLO the hammer in trade talks.

OK, I got really off track there, but somewhere in the above blurp is a point I was trying to make, I just forgot what it was exactly.

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11-20-2003, 05:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GorillazXL
Besides our horrible PK is related to the untimely goals Salo has been coughing up.
No it doesn't.

It has to do with the fact that on every single penalty kill, the Oilers are trying to score.

Don't blame this on Salo, because it has very little to do with him. There has been at least 7 power play goals where the Oilers forwards got caught up ice, and there were at least 4 opposition players in the Oilers zone.

You won't stop many power plays like that. The team has done a much better job over the past 4 or 5 games in limiting those mistakes.

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11-20-2003, 05:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilflip
I guess we can ask ourselves.....would you rather have the Oilers sign Oates 1.95 million for 1 year or sign Marchant for 2+ million for a year to play on our 3rd line. He is playing decent offensively in Columbus.Hey if we had all that extra money, why didnt we keep him?
Because he signed a long term deal for $3mil per season. Adam Oates is here for one year, meaning that if things don't work out, the Oilers don't have to worry about it.

If the Oilers signed marchant to the contract he got from the Blue Jackets, the Oilers would be on the hook for it. Meaning if Marchant returns to his usual form, the Oilers have $3 mil tied into a checking line centre. Not only that, but if he continued that trend, the Oilers would have a tough time trading him.

The Todd Marchant who we saw for 8 years as an Oiler wasn't worth $3mil per season, and as a GM, if you are going to judge everything based on a players best or worst year, you are going to find yourself out of a job very quickly.

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11-20-2003, 07:52 AM
  #15
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I agree about Marchant - we don't want him at the price (salary & number of years in the contract) that Columbus paid. I'm quite comfortable with Reasoner taking over that role of very good PK and possibly some limited PP time, and Stoll taking some of that role as well (either this year or next). We've got TWO guys in the lineup for less money than ONE Marchant...!

And there's no doubt that the defensive play has to get better, and it looks to be getting better the last few games. 35 shots by the Hawks seems like a lot, but from what I remember of that game (had tix), they didn't get very many 5-star chances. Those were the ones that were killing us earlier in the year, and then Salo wasn't stopping all that many of them. Now we're giving up fewer top-quality chances, and Conklin is stopping most of them.

Also, I expect a young team to struggle, especially at first. This is where the offense is a pleasant surprise. But the defensive game will improve as the year goes on as everyone learns their roles and gets used to the system.

Oates will help the PP and faceoff percentages, and Stoll seems to be improving at faceoffs as well. So if we can struggle back up to around the mid-point in PP %, after the awful start we had there, it would mean a pretty big positive change...and we're doing reasonably well without having a good PP (or even PK)!

So you're right - there are some areas for concern, but there are also reasons for optimism that those areas will improve. One of those 'half-empty/half-full' things, I guess.

Bart

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Old
11-20-2003, 09:30 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
It has to do with the fact that on every single penalty kill, the Oilers are trying to score. ... Don't blame this on Salo, because it has very little to do with him.
It seems to me that the Oilers and Salo are both putrid on the PK. The stats say that Salo may deserve a bigger share of the blame though. Statistical comparison between Conklin and Salo, 2003-04 season:

Code:
           CONKLIN             SALO
========================================-
GP             9                 12
TOI          443                644

        TOT   ES   SH      TOT   ES   SH
========================================
SA      227  179   38      276  192   66
GA       14    9    5       37   18   15
SV%    .938 .950 .868     .866 .906 .773
Salo's ES SV% is 95% of Conklin's, but his SV% on the PK is only 89% of Conklin's. The statistics are weak and can't resolve the issue, but .773 sure seems like a pathetic number any way you slice it. They've now seen a VERY similar amount of rubber.

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