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How good is Atlanta?

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11-25-2003, 07:03 AM
  #1
SmokeyClause
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How good is Atlanta?

I know this is a board frequented by several Atlanta fans, so I ask this, how good is Atlanta? They are sitting pretty for a playoff spot in the East but is it fools gold? Of their 11 victories, only three come against teams at .500 or great. They beat both Toronto (9-6-5-2) and Boston (11-3-3-3) in overtime and they beat the Islanders (9-8-2) Aside from those opponents, the combined record of all the teams they have beaten is 60-84-19-7 for an average of 18.5 points per team. These 8 teams have, on average, 4 less wins than regulation losses (it would be almost 5 less if you included OTL). If you used these records and created a team called XX, XX would be last place in 2 of the 8 divisions. The only divisions it wouldn't be last place (save for the Atlantic - Pittsburgh) are divisions whose last place team the Thrashers have beaten (SouthEast - Washington, Central - Columbus, Pacific - Phoenix).

The combined record of Atlanta opponents that they have beaten is 89-108-29-12. In comparison, the combined record of the teams the Predators have beaten is 85-70-13-15. The average Predator team has almost 2 more wins than losses and averages 22 points.

Now, to be fair, I am going to include all teams played by both teams. The Predators combined record of opponents is 175-149-42-28. Their opponents average almost a win and a half more than they lose. Atlanta's combined record of opponents is 176-187-67-22. Their opponents average a half loss more than they win.

But it's the disparity between who they beat and who they lose to that's startling. For Nashville, the opponents they beat have a combined record of 85-70-13-15. The combined record of the opponents with whom they lost or tied is 90-79-29-13.

For Atlanta, the opponents they beat have a combined record of 89-108-29-12. The combined record of the opponents with whom they lost or tied is 87-86-38-10.

Is Atlanta really good or is their superlative record a product of an easy schedule?

And before someone says I have too much time on my hands, this is information that I had to come up with for radio. It took all of 5 minutes to bring it to HF.

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11-25-2003, 07:10 AM
  #2
Joe T Choker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
I know this is a board frequented by several Atlanta fans, so I ask this, how good is Atlanta? They are sitting pretty for a playoff spot in the East but is it fools gold? Of their 11 victories, only three come against teams at .500 or great. They beat both Toronto (9-6-5-2) and Boston (11-3-3-3) in overtime and they beat the Islanders (9-8-2) Aside from those opponents, the combined record of all the teams they have beaten is 60-84-19-7 for an average of 18.5 points per team. These 8 teams have, on average, 4 less wins than regulation losses (it would be almost 5 less if you included OTL). If you used these records and created a team called XX, XX would be last place in 2 of the 8 divisions. The only divisions it wouldn't be last place (save for the Atlantic - Pittsburgh) are divisions whose last place team the Thrashers have beaten (SouthEast - Washington, Central - Columbus, Pacific - Phoenix).

The combined record of Atlanta opponents that they have beaten is 89-108-29-12. In comparison, the combined record of the teams the Predators have beaten is 85-70-13-15. The average Predator team has almost 2 more wins than losses and averages 22 points.

Now, to be fair, I am going to include all teams played by both teams. The Predators combined record of opponents is 175-149-42-28. Their opponents average almost a win and a half more than they lose. Atlanta's combined record of opponents is 176-187-67-22. Their opponents average a half loss more than they win.

But it's the disparity between who they beat and who they lose to that's startling. For Nashville, the opponents they beat have a combined record of 85-70-13-15. The combined record of the opponents with whom they lost or tied is 90-79-29-13.

For Atlanta, the opponents they beat have a combined record of 89-108-29-12. The combined record of the opponents with whom they lost or tied is 87-86-38-10.

Is Atlanta really good or is their superlative record a product of an easy schedule?
Are you kidding me...of course their record is a product of an easy schedule...I'd be drooling right now to play Washington, Florida, Carolina all 6 times a year...geez.

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11-25-2003, 07:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seven_Nation_Army
Are you kidding me...of course their record is a product of an easy schedule...I'd be drooling right now to play Washington, Florida, Carolina all 6 times a year...geez.
That is interesting. With Washington's payroll, Florida's young talent and Carolina's Cup run two years ago, everyone was talking about the Southeast as the next dominant division. Seems to me like they are worse than ever. They have the three worst Eastern conferences teams not named Pittsburgh. And of the 2 teams at the top, atleast one appears to be a product of this environment. And while TB is good, their record is inflated. I mean, both have played Was, Fla, Car a total of 6 times already.

TB's opponents record is 128-148-60-13. Their opponents average over 1 more regulation loss than total wins. Including OTL's, the difference is two games.

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11-25-2003, 07:50 AM
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I think a win is a win in the NHL. I think the sign of a good team is they win the games they are supposed too. So yes, I think Atlanta is a good team.

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11-25-2003, 07:53 AM
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They beat us didn't they?

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11-25-2003, 07:57 AM
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Yeah, but one game doesn't do a helluva lot of good in terms of judging teams. After last night, are we better than Colorado? Detroit? St. Louis? Beating a team once does not make you better than them.

I knew this argument would come up but I wasn't worried, it's way too easy to shoot down.

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11-25-2003, 07:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman
I think a win is a win in the NHL. I think the sign of a good team is they win the games they are supposed too. So yes, I think Atlanta is a good team.
Well, Atlanta also lost to Florida, Minny, Washington, Columbus and Carolina. Just because they beat really bad teams doesn't mean they just lost to good teams.

And the question shouldn't be whether or not they were good (much, much too subjective), it should be whether their record was fool's gold. Are they really 41-26-11-4 for 97 points good?


And for the record, I'm not claiming Nashville is superior. You don't lose to Chicago twice and consider yourselves good. Same can be said for San Jose. I just thought a comparison to Nashville would be relative to these boards.

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11-25-2003, 08:16 AM
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I dont think they are. They are a team of overachievers. If you look at the team, there is not much talent there, save for Kovalchuk. Ilya is the reason they are winning, along with the stellar play of Pasi Nurminen. They remind me of the Preds, in a way, of last year. Vokoun strapped us on his back and carried us within reach of the playoffs. The Thrashers could easily do that this year, and to get there, Pasi and Ilya would be carrying them. The difference between the Eastern Confrence and Western Confrence is very obvious to me. No offense to the eastern fans, but the better confrence in terms of skill and talent is the West. Sure each team has their stars, but they aren't as talented as the Western confrence teams. To succeed, they have to overachieve, and that is exactly what Atlanta is doing. Almost everynight they are coming out playing hard and with a lot of passion. This will win you games, and the Thrashers are reaping the benefit of hard work.

Here is a great site from a fellow HFer that determines SOS:

Here

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11-25-2003, 08:23 AM
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Just from watching the Thrashers a few times this year I think they are very capable of being in the playoffs. The east is a bit of a weaker conference in general. If they had Heatley there would be no question.

I like the stats on opponents , but I think we also have to be fare and figure in the Preds have faced several back up goalies as well. How many is it anyway?


Anyway the question was ....how good is Atlanta? I think they are mid level eastern conference....and a playoff team.

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11-25-2003, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaf
I like the stats on opponents , but I think we also have to be fare and figure in the Preds have faced several back up goalies as well. How many is it anyway?
I'll pull up some numbers.

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11-25-2003, 08:29 AM
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I think Exelby, Kozlov, Kovalchuk, Kaberle, Tremblay, Savard, Stefan and Nurminen are all talented hockey players.

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11-25-2003, 08:42 AM
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I brought this up in another thread sometime, and was pretty much taunted for thinking it.

The effect of increasing the number of conference games makes it much more difficult to compare a Western team to an Eastern team. Because the overall talent level is different-- the lower level Western teams are more equivalent to middle level Eastern teams. Hence scoring, GAA, wins, points are all skewed more by higher parity of the Western conference to artificially inflate the strength of the Eastern conference teams.

In short, I agree with you, Smokey, and think you can extend that artificial statistical inflation to all but the top 5 Eastern conference teams.

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11-25-2003, 08:45 AM
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Atlanta has played 3 backups. It's hard to judge a backup because, who is the backup in boston? It could be argued that Raycroft is the starter in boston as he's started 3 of the past 4 games. Does that mean Potvin is the backup?

That being said, ATL has played 3, Nashville has 6.

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11-25-2003, 08:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman
I think Exelby, Kozlov, Kovalchuk, Kaberle, Tremblay, Savard, Stefan and Nurminen are all talented hockey players.
Exelby - yes, but he is mainly a hitter right now.
Kozlov - definitely
Kovalchuk - mentioned
Kaberle - disagree.....very solid and responsible, but nothing special
Tremblay - ^ Same
Savard - Yes, he is also becoming a leader. I believe he just came off the shelf though.
Stefan - No, doesn't play the body, and even though he has the talent, he doesn't use it.
Nurminen - mentioned

I stick by my original statement. They have Aubin on the 2nd line for crying out loud!

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11-25-2003, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch
Exelby - yes, but he is mainly a hitter right now.
Kozlov - definitely
Kovalchuk - mentioned
Kaberle - disagree.....very solid and responsible, but nothing special
Tremblay - ^ Same
Savard - Yes, he is also becoming a leader. I believe he just came off the shelf though.
Stefan - No, doesn't play the body, and even though he has the talent, he doesn't use it.
Nurminen - mentioned

I stick by my original statement. They have Aubin on the 2nd line for crying out loud!
I could do the same thing to our top 8, we're still talented though.

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11-25-2003, 09:31 AM
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and we have Rem Murray on our second line.

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11-25-2003, 09:33 AM
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Are we tired of worrying about our own team now? O.K.

Fire Hartley
Kovulchuk needs to back check.
etc.
etc.
etc.

Mason is still bald though!!!!!!

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11-25-2003, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hipcheck85
Mason is still bald though!!!!!!
Is he bald because he's balding and doesn't want to look stupid (like Michael Jordan) or is he bald because it looks cool?

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11-25-2003, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
Is he bald because he's balding and doesn't want to look stupid (like Michael Jordan) or is he bald because it looks cool?
I see how you go right for the most pressing issue and skip over the whole Kovulchuk thing.......You are a homer!!!

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11-25-2003, 09:55 AM
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I try to watch as many Thrashers games as I can, I get most of them thanks to Turner South, while they do have some very skilled players, you cannot deny the fact they play in a very weak division. With that being said, they utilize what talent they have and always seem to find ways the win...

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11-25-2003, 09:56 AM
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Joe T Choker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsFan77
I try to watch as many Thrashers games as I can, I get most of them thanks to Turner South, while they do have some very skilled players, you cannot deny the fact they play in a very weak division. With that being said, they utilize what talent they have and always seem to find ways the win...
you mean...FEED THE PUCK TO KOVALCHUK?

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11-25-2003, 10:05 AM
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Don't forget that offensive power house in Garnet Exelby..

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11-25-2003, 11:16 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsFan77
With that being said, they utilize what talent they have and always seem to find ways the win...
That's what impresses me most about them. They are finding ways to win games they shouldn't or rather, weren't in a good position to. Like against the Predators.

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11-25-2003, 11:23 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch
Exelby - yes, but he is mainly a hitter right now.
Kozlov - definitely
Kovalchuk - mentioned
Kaberle - disagree.....very solid and responsible, but nothing special
Tremblay - ^ Same
Savard - Yes, he is also becoming a leader. I believe he just came off the shelf though.
Stefan - No, doesn't play the body, and even though he has the talent, he doesn't use it.
Nurminen - mentioned

I stick by my original statement. They have Aubin on the 2nd line for crying out loud!
Well with that logic, The rangers shouldn't have lost a cup in the last five years. And why have they....no team chemistry.

The key to the questions is..how good is Atlanta. I believe the question references the team as a whole. As a whole, they are pretty darn good. No, the lines are not filled with top dollar forwards, and we only have one over-paid goalie(backup I might add) but with the coach that can teach players how to win and the players eager to listen, I would take that kind of team over a team like the rangers any day.

Someone else mentioned that we have a bunch of over-achievers.

All I can say is ...THANK GOD! I would hate it to be the other way.

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11-25-2003, 11:38 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thrashd00d
Well with that logic, The rangers shouldn't have lost a cup in the last five years. And why have they....no team chemistry.

The key to the questions is..how good is Atlanta. I believe the question references the team as a whole. As a whole, they are pretty darn good. No, the lines are not filled with top dollar forwards, and we only have one over-paid goalie(backup I might add) but with the coach that can teach players how to win and the players eager to listen, I would take that kind of team over a team like the rangers any day.

Someone else mentioned that we have a bunch of over-achievers.

All I can say is ...THANK GOD! I would hate it to be the other way.
The Rangers, with their roster, have underachieved. The Thrashers, with their roster, have overachieved. There is no doubt. But, with overachievers, there is a fear that some day they will stop overachieving and just play to their abilities.

There is no doubt the Thrashers are overachieving. How good is Atlanta? I think they are a borderline playoff team in the East. Their schedule is a joke, but it is not going to get too much more difficult. They still get to play the bottom feeder quartet (Was, Car, Pit, Fla) something like 16 more times. That being said, they've tempted fate in several games and had to use heroic comebacks to win. Will the puck bounce favorably for them in the remaining 3/4's of the season? If it does so much like it did for Minnesota, then the playoffs are almost assured. If it doesn't, then bad things can happen. One of the keys that I've seen from Atlanta is they have put themselves in bad situations in games but have been able to emerge victorious. I see that as a product of schedules as much as of grit and determination. In so many games, they've had to come from behind. But, it's much easier to come from behind against Florida or Carolina than it is against St. Louis or Vancouver. There schedule has been very condusive to that. Because they play a lot of the formers and not nearly as many of the latters.

I think their record is fool's gold. Not so much so that you can say they are a bad team, but enough so that you can say they aren't 11-7 good.

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