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Decision - Souray / Markhov = Chara / Redden

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Old
12-24-2006, 12:50 AM
  #1
habitforming
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Decision - Souray / Markov = Chara / Redden

Obviously we can't tell the future now can we. Do you think that Ottawa would like to change their decision in Keeping Chara instead of the other way around.

If no trade, we're in the same position as Ottawa this past UFA season.

Do we go hard to keep Souray or Markov?? I doubt we can keep both - Am I way off base on this or . . . . .


Cheers guys


Last edited by habitforming: 12-25-2006 at 10:43 PM.
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Old
12-24-2006, 12:53 AM
  #2
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We have to keep Markov...it's really simple, he's the more important peice of or defence squad. Souray is good on the PP, but Markov, overall, is the best one.

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Old
12-24-2006, 12:59 AM
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They will keep both Markov and Souray. Markov is the best overall D and Souray is the reason we have the #1 PP in the league. Without them, we're in trouble, it's as simple as that.

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12-24-2006, 01:26 AM
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Keep Markov...it's that simple. We learned that the hard way last season.

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12-24-2006, 02:48 AM
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I love Souary and everything he brings, but Markov is more important and a smart player.

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12-24-2006, 03:29 AM
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IMO, if the Habs had any balls they'd trade Souray right now while his value is inflated...

Find a contender out West whose PP is under-performing and look for a centerman in exchange, if possible.

Unfortunately for you guys... the Habs are doing well so far this season and won't be looking to move Souray... although it would be the wise thing to do.

I see it as a wasted opportunity to fix that 2nd line of yours


- Ron

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Old
12-24-2006, 06:45 AM
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BaseballCoach
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habitforming View Post
Obviously we can't tell the future now can we. Do you think that Ottawa would like to change their decision in Keeping Chara instead of the other way around.

If no trade, we're in the same position as Ottawa this past UFA season.

Do we go hard to keep Souray or Markhov?? I doubt we can keep both - Am I way off base on this or . . . . .
The cap is expected to rise by $3M next year. I see no reason why we can't re-sign both Souray and Markov at around the salary of Koivu. There are other players who we can sacrifice to keep under the cap, if necessary. What is imporant is to keep our core, and keep developing youth.

GAINS
3.0M Cap rise
1.4M Halak replaces Abby
1.9M Lapierre replaces Ninimaa
2.0M Samsonov traded for player making max $1.5M
1.2M Dandenault traded for prospects
-----
9.5M TOTAL MADE AVAILABLE

STATIC SITUATIONS
Bonk, Johnson are UFA. Offer them approximately what they are making now. If one balks, replace with Chipchura and save money. If both balk, give one a bit more, and replace the other with Chipchura. At best, we save money, at worst, we are even.

Rivet is UFA. Offer approximately what he is making now, plus whatever is saved on Bonk/Johnson.

Downey is UFA. Offer same money or replace for same money.

Ryder is RFA. Offer same money as now, he should not command more if production continues at this pace (less than 2005-2006).

Huet, Koivu, Kovalev, Latendresse, Begin, Murray, Streit and Bouillon are all already under contract for 2007-2008. Cap hits are already based on average salary for length of contract, hence no changes here.


ADDITIONAL SPENDING
2.3M Higgins RFA
0.8M Komisarek RFA
0.4M Plekanec RFA
0.4M Perezhogin RFA
3.1M Markov UFA
2.5M Souray UFA
-----
9.5M TOTAL INCREASED SPENDING

This plan would leave us about $1M under the new cap.

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Old
12-24-2006, 08:50 AM
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Imo Rivet can easily be replaced by either Alex Emelin or Ryan O'byrne, so there's your money to keep both

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12-24-2006, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Guillaume the great! View Post
Imo Rivet can easily be replaced by either Alex Emelin or Ryan O'byrne, so there's your money to keep both

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Old
12-24-2006, 09:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
The cap is expected to rise by $3M next year. I see no reason why we can't re-sign both Souray and Markov at around the salary of Koivu. There are other players who we can sacrifice to keep under the cap, if necessary. What is imporant is to keep our core, and keep developing youth.

GAINS
3.0M Cap rise
1.4M Halak replaces Abby
1.9M Lapierre replaces Ninimaa Lapierre is a Center, Niinimaa a D
2.0M Samsonov traded for player making max $1.5M Hypothetic, third line player ?
1.2M Dandenault traded for prospects Hypothetic, 3rd tier prospects ?
-----
9.5M TOTAL MADE AVAILABLE

STATIC SITUATIONS
Bonk, Johnson are UFA. Offer them approximately what they are making now. If one balks, replace with Chipchura and save money. If both balk, give one a bit more, and replace the other with Chipchura. At best, we save money, at worst, we are even. Bonk at 2.4 is too much, offer him the same contract as Johnson, at 1.9 is what he's worth IMO

Rivet is UFA. Offer approximately what he is making now, plus whatever is saved on Bonk/Johnson.

Downey is UFA. Offer same money or replace for same money. 2-way contract would be best

Ryder is RFA. Offer same money as now, he should not command more if production continues at this pace (less than 2005-2006).

Huet, Koivu, Kovalev, Latendresse, Begin, Murray, Streit and Bouillon are all already under contract for 2007-2008. Cap hits are already based on average salary for length of contract, hence no changes here.


ADDITIONAL SPENDING
2.3M Higgins RFA
0.8M Komisarek RFA
0.4M Plekanec RFA
0.4M Perezhogin RFA
3.1M Markov UFA
2.5M Souray UFA
-----
9.5M TOTAL INCREASED SPENDING

This plan would leave us about $1M under the new cap.
Too much hypothetical situations, but your additional spendings may be right

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Old
12-24-2006, 09:24 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiram View Post
BaseballCoach: Lapierre replaces Ninimaa
Chiram: Lapierre is a Center, Niinimaa a D

BaseballCoach: Samsonov traded for player making max $1.5M
Chiram: Hypothetic, third line player ?

BaseballCoach: Dandenault traded for prospects
Chiram: Hypothetic, 3rd tier prospects ?

BaseballCoach: Downey is UFA. Offer same money or replace for same money.
Chiram: 2-way contract would be best

Chiram: Too much hypothetical situations, but your additional spendings may be right
I know that Lapierre is a forward, and Ninimaa a defenceman. However, right now we have 2 extra defencemen and one extra forward. I am simply suggesting we go the other way. In fact, if not for the fact that Ninimaa were with the team right now, taking up cap space as well, Lapierre could be playing here, with Streit moved to defence. That would give us three spares, Murray, Downey and Dandenault/Bouillon.

Yes, Samsonov would be traded for a third-line player making third-line money. For a team with cap room that is seeking some offense, this is a good deal, and for us, it helps keep our core.

Dandenault would be traded for prospects or picks or some of each. The same result would obtain if we move Bouillon instead of Dandenault, but I think that Dandenault would fetch more on the market, due to his previous success in Detroit, and Bouillon is a key part of the local chemistry here.

Downey may or may not take a 2-way contract, but it makes no practical difference cap-wise. Either Downey stays or someone else will be brought in as a spare forward making around $500K.

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Old
12-24-2006, 09:49 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
...
No way we deal Samsonov and Dandy. Johnson and Bonk have been great defensively but I feel they are replaceable, if Bonk takes a bit of a paycut I feel we could keep him, but no to Johnson if he's seeking a small raise. He'll probably want to test the market anyway.

Heres my take on things:

Gain:
$3m cap raise
Aebischer out ($1,9m)
Niinimaa out ($2,4m)
Johnson out ($1,8m)
Bonk paycut ($400k)
Rivet paycut ($200k)
Murray dealt ($600k)

Additional Spending:
Lapierre in ($600k)
Emelin in ($800k)
Danis/Halak/UFA Backup ($600k)
Souray raise ($1,7m) = ($4m)
Markov raise ($3,5m) = ($5,25m)
Higgins raise ($2m) = ($2,65m)
Perezhogin raise ($300k) = ($950k)
Plekanec raise ($500k) = ($950k)
Komisarek stays at same = ($950k)
Downey stays at same = ($450k)
Ryder stays at same =($2,2m)

Higgins - Koivu - Kovalev
Samsonov - Plekanec - Ryder
Latendresse - Bonk - Perezhogin
Begin - Lapierre - Streit
*Downey

Markov - Komisarek
Souray - Dandeneault
Bouillon - Rivet
*Emelin

Huet/Backup

= Gain $10 400 000
= Lost $10 400 000

We're still $1 000 000 under the cap if Kosty makes the team.

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Old
12-24-2006, 09:53 AM
  #13
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Baseball coach: STATIC SITUATIONS
Bonk, Johnson are UFA. Offer them approximately what they are making now. If one balks, replace with Chipchura and save money. If both balk, give one a bit more, and replace the other with Chipchura. At best, we save money, at worst, we are even.


Chipchura will not be ready to handle the thrid line duties (which is to face the other teams' best players) next season...Lapierre on the third line would be way more realistic...even though I still think (my 2 cents) that it would be early even for him...

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Old
12-24-2006, 09:55 AM
  #14
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Originally Posted by #57 View Post
No way we deal Samsonov and Dandy. Johnson and Bonk have been great defensively but I feel they are replaceable, if Bonk takes a bit of a paycut I feel we could keep him, but no to Johnson if he's seeking a small raise. He'll probably want to test the market anyway.

Heres my take on things:

Gain:
$3m cap raise
Aebischer out ($1,9m)
Niinimaa out ($2,4m)
Johnson out ($1,8m)
Bonk paycut ($400k)
Rivet paycut ($200k)
Murray dealt ($600k)

Additional Spending:
Lapierre in ($600k)
Emelin in ($800k)
Danis/Halak/UFA Backup ($600k)
Souray raise ($1,7m) = ($4m)
Markov raise ($3,5m) = ($5,25m)
Higgins raise ($2m) = ($2,65m)
Perezhogin raise ($300k) = ($950k)
Plekanec raise ($500k) = ($950k)
Komisarek stays at same = ($950k)
Downey stays at same = ($450k)
Ryder stays at same =($2,2m)

Higgins - Koivu - Kovalev
Samsonov - Plekanec - Ryder
Latendresse - Bonk - Perezhogin
Begin - Lapierre - Streit
*Downey

Markov - Komisarek
Souray - Dandeneault
Bouillon - Rivet
*Emelin

Huet/Backup

= Gain $10 400 000
= Lost $10 400 000

We're still $1 000 000 under the cap if Kosty makes the team.
Sure, if the players accept your numbers, this will work. But I think you have a few holes.

I think Komisarek will get a substantial increase, which is why I think we have to deal Dandenault or Bouillon.

I think you don't plan enough of a raise for Souray.

I don't think Rivet will take a pay cut. Bonk neither.

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Old
12-24-2006, 10:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
GAINS
3.0M Cap rise
1.4M Halak replaces Abby
1.9M Lapierre replaces Ninimaa
2.0M Samsonov traded for player making max $1.5M
1.2M Dandenault traded for prospects
-----
9.5M TOTAL MADE AVAILABLE

ADDITIONAL SPENDING
2.3M Higgins RFA
0.8M Komisarek RFA
0.4M Plekanec RFA
0.4M Perezhogin RFA
3.1M Markov UFA
2.5M Souray UFA
-----
9.5M TOTAL INCREASED SPENDING

This plan would leave us about $1M under the new cap.
I think trading Samsonov and Dandenault is a bit drastic given the current context. Higgins has basically no bargaining power other than staying at home, I doubt he will be making more than 2 millions next season, you increased him at 3. So that lowers the increased spendings to 8.5. I wouldn't keep Bonk, personally, as he is known for playing his best in a contract year and get back to his old habits afterwards. So I would let Bonk, Niinima, Aebischer and Downey go. Same could be done with Rivet if he asks for the same amount.

(based on http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=329)

Bonk - 2,394,000 (replaced by Plekanec at 1m)
Aebischer - 1,900,000 (replaced by Halak or Danis at 500k)
Niinima - 2,508,000 (replaced by a newcomer or Biron, at 500k)
Rivet - 2,565,000 (replaced on the pair by Dandenault)

Here's my take on what it would cost to keep our lineup.

Pos Name 2007-08
C Saku Koivu 4,750,000
RW Alexei Kovalev 4,500,000
LW Sergei Samsonov 3,525,000
G Cristobal Huet 2,875,00
D Craig Rivet 2,000
D Mathieu Biron 0,600
C Maxim Lapierre 0,600
D Sheldon Souray 4,500
RW Michael Ryder 2,200
G Jaroslav Halak 0,500
D Francis Bouillion 1,875,000
RW Mike Johnson 1,800
D Andrei Markov 4,500
D Mathieu Dandenault 1,725,000
C Steve Begin 1,000,000
D Mike Komisarek 2,000
RW Guillaume Latendresse 0,850
LW Christopher Higgins 2,000
RW Alexander Perezhogin 1,000
D Mark Streit 0,600
C Garth Murray 0,575
C Tomas Plekanec 1,000

You can add 500k to both Markov and Souray if you feel like it, it would bring us to nearly 46k with a full lineup. We don't need to replace Downey if we keep Streit on the fourth line with Murray, Lapierre, Begin and Youppi to complete the line. I would not be surprised to see Samsonov end up in arbitration so that his salary drops a bit. I wouldn't mind trading him to fill up the scoring center role, with Latendresse moving to the top two lines, but it's not really necessary. With that lineup, I would either move Lapierre to the third line, which would be real risky, or put Kovalev at center for the second line, with Samsonov and Latendresse.

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Old
12-24-2006, 10:33 AM
  #16
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Well, I'd love to keep both. But if we can only afford one of the two, it better be Markov.

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Old
12-24-2006, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Stiffler View Post
I think trading Samsonov and Dandenault is a bit drastic given the current context. Higgins has basically no bargaining power other than staying at home, I doubt he will be making more than 2 millions next season, you increased him at 3. So that lowers the increased spendings to 8.5. I wouldn't keep Bonk, personally, as he is known for playing his best in a contract year and get back to his old habits afterwards. So I would let Bonk, Niinima, Aebischer and Downey go. Same could be done with Rivet if he asks for the same amount.

(based on http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=329)

Bonk - 2,394,000 (replaced by Plekanec at 1m)
Aebischer - 1,900,000 (replaced by Halak or Danis at 500k)
Niinima - 2,508,000 (replaced by a newcomer or Biron, at 500k)
Rivet - 2,565,000 (replaced on the pair by Dandenault)

Here's my take on what it would cost to keep our lineup.

Pos Name 2007-08
C Saku Koivu 4,750,000
RW Alexei Kovalev 4,500,000
LW Sergei Samsonov 3,525,000
G Cristobal Huet 2,875,00
D Craig Rivet 2,000
D Mathieu Biron 0,600
C Maxim Lapierre 0,600
D Sheldon Souray 4,500
RW Michael Ryder 2,200
G Jaroslav Halak 0,500
D Francis Bouillion 1,875,000
RW Mike Johnson 1,800
D Andrei Markov 4,500
D Mathieu Dandenault 1,725,000
C Steve Begin 1,000,000
D Mike Komisarek 2,000
RW Guillaume Latendresse 0,850
LW Christopher Higgins 2,000
RW Alexander Perezhogin 1,000
D Mark Streit 0,600
C Garth Murray 0,575
C Tomas Plekanec 1,000

You can add 500k to both Markov and Souray if you feel like it, it would bring us to nearly 46k with a full lineup. We don't need to replace Downey if we keep Streit on the fourth line with Murray, Lapierre, Begin and Youppi to complete the line. I would not be surprised to see Samsonov end up in arbitration so that his salary drops a bit. I wouldn't mind trading him to fill up the scoring center role, with Latendresse moving to the top two lines, but it's not really necessary. With that lineup, I would either move Lapierre to the third line, which would be real risky, or put Kovalev at center for the second line, with Samsonov and Latendresse.
If you think Bonk only plays well in a contract year, then offer him a ONE-YEAR deal and presto - he is in a contract year again!!

I think that Higgins will earn more than Ryder or Komisarek.

I'm don't believe Johnson will stay for less money than he is making this year.

I don't believe Mathieu Biron is a good defenceman, but we can put another guy in there for the same money you showed, so I don't much care.

Letting Downey go, or not, makes absolutely no difference to the cap figures. The 21st to 23rd players will make Downey-style money no matter what.

Please explain this arbitration thing with a player already under contract. Someone else once mentioned it in passing.

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12-24-2006, 10:42 AM
  #18
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They will keep both Markov and Souray. Markov is the best overall D and Souray is the reason we have the #1 PP in the league. Without them, we're in trouble, it's as simple as that.
Warning from a fan of a team that kept a very good offensive D pairing from last season, it's DEFINTELY not worth overpaying.

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12-24-2006, 11:17 AM
  #19
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markov is the man we need/want. it would be great to keep souray, and if there is any way to do that BG will find a way i am sure. rivet if he was to leave i would not really be heart broken, but as it has been said many times before we do need a good centreman.

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12-24-2006, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
If you think Bonk only plays well in a contract year, then offer him a ONE-YEAR deal and presto - he is in a contract year again!!

I think that Higgins will earn more than Ryder or Komisarek.

I'm don't believe Johnson will stay for less money than he is making this year.

I don't believe Mathieu Biron is a good defenceman, but we can put another guy in there for the same money you showed, so I don't much care.

Letting Downey go, or not, makes absolutely no difference to the cap figures. The 21st to 23rd players will make Downey-style money no matter what.

Please explain this arbitration thing with a player already under contract. Someone else once mentioned it in passing.
Well, what's the point of giving Bonk another one year deal if we already have Plekanec that can fill that role? Bonk is a UFA, it's much harder offering a one year deal to a UFA than to a RFA.

Johnson already makes 1,75 this year, I just kept the number.

I agree that Biron is not a very good one, but nor is Niinima. As you said though, the 8th defenseman (if there is one, as 7 is the regular number) will earn about that money also. Btw, I would just drop the additional reserve that Downey fills until an injury occurs. Why spend that money right away when the player won't play anyway? Let's wait for something to happen.

I don't see any circumstance for a RFA to go from 0,6 to 3m right away, it would hurt the salary structure of the team imo. But anyway, we both agree that we will pay what's needed to keep Higgins happy! :-)

You can look at the CBA at www.nhlpa.com, basically it's something along the lines that a player can see his salary reduced nce in his career through club-elected arbitration.

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12-24-2006, 11:28 AM
  #21
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well , it 's easy to say we have to keep him , him and them , but at the end , those players are free agents and they will go where they want to go .

We couls say that Markov is going to cost that money , and Souray this amount to be sign , but there is always the "foolish factor " ; the risk that a GM will offer 1-2 M$ more than what a player deserve .

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Old
12-24-2006, 11:31 AM
  #22
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Keep Souray.

He is the reason why we have the number one powerplay. Sure, he is prone to make errors, but he makes everybody on the ice around him better because the other teams are intimidated by him. He is in every team's gameplan and he not only creates goals directly because of his shots, but also indirectly thanks to the impact his presence has on the other team's psyche. Plus, people blindly assume that he is very tough.

Markov, while a very good playmaker, doesn't have that much of an impact on the opposition. Sure, he will move the puck well, he will create opportunities and goals, but he won't strike fear in the oppositon.

Look at Ottawa. They suck now that Chara is gone. Sure, Redden is able to move the puck much better than Chara and is very sound defensively, but the other teams aren't intimidated by him and so the entire team is struggling.

Plus, Souray brings a lot more to the locker room.

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Old
12-24-2006, 11:42 AM
  #23
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Markov is not going to sign below 5 millions. I am willing to bet my vcash on that.

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Old
12-24-2006, 11:52 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Stiffler View Post
You can look at the CBA at www.nhlpa.com, basically it's something along the lines that a player can see his salary reduced nce in his career through club-elected arbitration.
I think it only applies to players who are RFA. Samsonov is signed for next year.

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12-24-2006, 11:53 AM
  #25
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I'd sign Gomez with Souray's money.

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