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Zhitnik +/- Deathwatch

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Old
01-01-2007, 05:48 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
Maybe i'm not the one being impartial. There is some sentiment on this board that is looking to justify trading the pick and justifying Zhitnik's salary. I understand that. I want the Flyers to do well as well and I'm happy that they won last night but last night has alot more to do with Forsberg and Esche playing great than it does Zhitnik. Forsberg misses that game last night we lose. Zhitnik misses I think we still win.

Esche bailing out Zhitnik on his mistakes doesn't mean that Zhitnik didn't make them, it just mean's it doesn't show up on the scoresheet. Not only was Zhitnik on the ice for the 5 for but also for the 2 against. If Esche doesn't bail Zhitnik out of a bad turnover it's 5 for 3 against with Zhitnik responsible for one goal against and that's assuming we'd still have the empty net goal.

Also, you do not give up 44 sog while playing great defensive hockey. If esche only plays .900 sv% hockey we lose that game. He turned away some really good shots.

Offensively, Zhitnik does seem to have a heavy shot from the point, I'll give him that but we still aren't going to win alot of games with Esche taking 40+ shots a night.
How about the fact that he played 27 and a half minutes, was a +3, 3 hits, and 2 blocked shots.

Was he the best player on the ice ??? ... no Esche was out best player, that doesn't mean that Zhitnik didn't play a big role in winning the game.

Also the shots on goal are deceiving, this wasn't us getting dominated like we did the final two periods in Tampa. The ridiculous reffing in the 2nd period, led to the large shot discrepency.

Any defenseman that plays 27+ minutes is going to turn the puck over occasionally, while you're priasing Forsberg and bashing Zhitnik, you conveniently neglected the turnovers Forsberg had.

The more you handle the puck, the more turnovers you're going to have. Somone like an Eager will have very few turnovers, while big minute players that have the puck on their stick a lot will turn the puck over (Forsberg, Pitkanen, Zhitnik)

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01-01-2007, 06:02 PM
  #27
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I don't get the reverse man crush. He's playing reasonably well considering the absolute mess our blue line is, and our team was.
  • Zhitnik makes maybe one, two mistakes a game, neither of which are catastrophic (Rathje-esque).
  • He uses that cannon of a shot of his to add some color to our monochromatic, 1950s, more plain than "Leave it to Beaver" power-play.
  • He eats 30 minutes a night, sheltering our only decent defensive prospect in Picard from being dismantled, and regressing into something worse than an AHL lifer.
Meyer, on the other hand, hasn't played a single game since being dealt. Something to think about.

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01-01-2007, 07:15 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Panasonic Youth View Post
Meyer, on the other hand, hasn't played a single game since being dealt. Something to think about.
Not to discredit your argument, because I fully agree with you, but Meyer might still be hurt. Remember we traded him while he was a scratch a couple times with back spasms - it was reported he was in a ton of pain.

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01-01-2007, 07:22 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Storm in a Teacup View Post
Not to discredit your argument, because I fully agree with you, but Meyer might still be hurt. Remember we traded him while he was a scratch a couple times with back spasms - it was reported he was in a ton of pain.
You're right. I forgot about the back pains, because he returned for a couple games. I stand by what I said, though.

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01-01-2007, 07:49 PM
  #30
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Now I haven't seen all games but I think Zhitnik has looked quite good the games I've seen him. Feels like Philly also gets another dimmension on powerplay since Zhitnik can really shoot and pass so I doubt this was a bad trade considering how it looked before.

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Old
01-10-2007, 07:03 AM
  #31
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After Last night Zhitnik is +2 for the year which includes another brutal giveway around the Flyers net which directly led to a capitals goal. He does seem to do that at least once every other game.

Well after 12 games with the Flyers :

-11 (only one positive +/- in 12 games which includes 3 wins).

2 goals/2 assists which is much less than the points against the Flyers he's responsible for.

I'm pretty sure he has the worst +/- of any Flyer since he arrived but not sure where to research that easily.

My evaluation after 12 games is this. He looks fine out there most of the time, and maybe it's because he's getting to many minutes, but he makes mistakes such as losing the puck in front of his own net (multiple times), taking unnessecary penalties, and just plain getting beat one on one. His biggest positive is his hard shot. The Flyers have him making mistakes so that the youngsters don't get the chance to make their own.

If it wouldn't be for the York trade, i'd think this trade was the worst trade we made so far but the trading deadline isn't over yet. I still expect to see Pitkanen shipped out making Zhitnik our #1 dman for 2 more years.

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Old
01-10-2007, 07:50 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
I'm pretty sure he has the worst +/- of any Flyer since he arrived but not sure where to research that easily.
From the game logs at yahoo:

Peter Forsberg 2
Mike Knuble -1
Ryan Potulny -1
Ben Eager -1
Stefan Ruzicka -1
Joni Pitkanen -2
Randy Jones -2
Jussi Timonen -2
Eric Meloche -2
David Printz -3
Dmitry Afanasenkov -3
Simon Gagne -4
Jeff Carter -4
Sami Kapanen -4
Alexandre Picard -4
Todd Fedoruk -4
Kyle Calder -5
Derian Hatcher -5
R.J. Umberger -6
Mike York -7
Alexei Zhitnik -11

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01-10-2007, 08:07 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Norseman View Post
From the game logs at yahoo:

Peter Forsberg 2
Mike Knuble -1
Ryan Potulny -1
Ben Eager -1
Stefan Ruzicka -1
Joni Pitkanen -2
Randy Jones -2
Jussi Timonen -2
Eric Meloche -2
David Printz -3
Dmitry Afanasenkov -3
Simon Gagne -4
Jeff Carter -4
Sami Kapanen -4
Alexandre Picard -4
Todd Fedoruk -4
Kyle Calder -5
Derian Hatcher -5
R.J. Umberger -6
Mike York -7
Alexei Zhitnik -11
Thanks Norseman! York hasn't even been on the team as long as Zhit and has the second worst minus.. ouch.

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Old
01-10-2007, 08:42 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
I'm pretty sure he has the worst +/- of any Flyer since he arrived but not sure where to research that easily.
He also plays more minutes than anyone and is out against the other teams top line on a regular basis.

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Old
01-10-2007, 09:02 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
He also plays more minutes than anyone and is out against the other teams top line on a regular basis.
Is that supposed to be an argument that he isn't a top defender since he does so poorly against them? I'd agree with that. Before him it was hatcher and Gauthier and they didn't do so hot in that role either. Just because we have someone eatting up big minutes doesn't mean they eat up big minutes well.

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01-10-2007, 09:12 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
Is that supposed to be an argument that he isn't a top defender since he does so poorly against them? I'd agree with that. Before him it was hatcher and Gauthier and they didn't do so hot in that role either. Just because we have someone eatting up big minutes doesn't mean they eat up big minutes well.
He isn't going to solve all the problems.

We give up many more goals than we score. If you're on the ice for 27 minutes instead of 12 minutes, you're likely going to have a worse +/-.

The bottom line question you need to ask yourself as to whether this was a good or bad trade is this:

This offseason could we find a better defenseman than Zhitnik for 2 years @ $7 million ???

I believe the answer to that question is no, so in the end I think it's a good deal.

Also Zhitnik, like Hatcher are being asked to do more than they should at the moment, which does leave them exposed a times. It isn't their fault that they are forced to become this teams #1 & #2 defenseman.

If the team is constrcuted properly next year Zhitnik will be the #3 defenseman and Hatcher will be the #4. and both will be playing 20-22 minutes instead of 25-28 minutes.

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Old
01-10-2007, 10:29 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
He isn't going to solve all the problems.

We give up many more goals than we score. If you're on the ice for 27 minutes instead of 12 minutes, you're likely going to have a worse +/-.

The bottom line question you need to ask yourself as to whether this was a good or bad trade is this:

This offseason could we find a better defenseman than Zhitnik for 2 years @ $7 million ???

I believe the answer to that question is no, so in the end I think it's a good deal.

Also Zhitnik, like Hatcher are being asked to do more than they should at the moment, which does leave them exposed a times. It isn't their fault that they are forced to become this teams #1 & #2 defenseman.

If the team is constrcuted properly next year Zhitnik will be the #3 defenseman and Hatcher will be the #4. and both will be playing 20-22 minutes instead of 25-28 minutes.

I know I'm in the minority on this but I'd rather have Freddy Meyer out there taking his lumps and learning. All thoughts about making this season look respectable have long since passed. I believe in 2 years he'll be a solid puck moving defenseman still making less than Zhitnik is making now but that's just my opinion (young and cheap with upside vs old expensive on the downside). Yes I classify 26 as young for dmen and goalies. I do hope the Flyers cough up the money for Timmo Kimonen in the offseason though assuming he isn't looking for max money.

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Old
01-10-2007, 11:15 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
He isn't going to solve all the problems.

We give up many more goals than we score. If you're on the ice for 27 minutes instead of 12 minutes, you're likely going to have a worse +/-.

The bottom line question you need to ask yourself as to whether this was a good or bad trade is this:

This offseason could we find a better defenseman than Zhitnik for 2 years @ $7 million ???

I believe the answer to that question is no, so in the end I think it's a good deal.
I agree with you on the the big minutes somewhat, although big minute dmen are supposed to play big minutes because they prevent goals against. I am certaintly not going to blame everything on Zhitnik though. He is what I though he was when we traded for him. A decent dman who used to be a heck of a lot better who can still give you 20 minutes a night. He shouldnt be playing 27.

However, on your comment about getting another dman in the offseason. Like I said many times, maybe you dont find someone that caliber for exactly $3.5 million for two years, however, you may find someone several years younger, for maybe a million more which to me is worth it for a team that has all the cap space we have. At least then that dman will be around when we are good again. Zhitnik wont be.

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Old
01-10-2007, 11:43 AM
  #39
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of course Zhitniks +/- is going to go down when Esche is giving up 75 foot goals in the opening 15 seconds of the game.
Sometimes +/- can be such an overrated stat.
There is no way he has played as worse as that -11 shows since we got him

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Old
01-10-2007, 11:51 AM
  #40
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heres a novel idea, lets quit looking at a player's +/- statistic as if it actually has a semblance of a meaningful stat.

this is such a worthless and pointless discussion

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01-10-2007, 12:04 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by kz View Post
heres a novel idea, lets quit looking at a player's +/- statistic as if it actually has a semblance of a meaningful stat.

this is such a worthless and pointless discussion
One of the most sensible things I've seen on this part of HFBoards in a long time.

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01-10-2007, 12:05 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
I know I'm in the minority on this but I'd rather have Freddy Meyer out there taking his lumps and learning. All thoughts about making this season look respectable have long since passed. I believe in 2 years he'll be a solid puck moving defenseman still making less than Zhitnik is making now but that's just my opinion (young and cheap with upside vs old expensive on the downside). Yes I classify 26 as young for dmen and goalies. I do hope the Flyers cough up the money for Timmo Kimonen in the offseason though assuming he isn't looking for max money.
Freddy Meyer isnt a young prospect. hes 26.
I like Meyer. hes from my area, but I dont think hes going to get any better then what you see right now. he has peaked out IMO.
I agree with you on Kimmo Timonen, he would be a great addidtion. If all we did next season was upgrade in goal(maybe Giguere) and get a guy like Timonen I would be happy.

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Old
01-10-2007, 12:34 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by kz View Post
heres a novel idea, lets quit looking at a player's +/- statistic as if it actually has a semblance of a meaningful stat.

this is such a worthless and pointless discussion
To a certain extent I agree with you in that the +/- on a good team will be better than on a bad team but that's where relative +/- comes into play. Any +/- that's appreciably different than the rest of the team over a period of time is meaningful IMO. What stat do think would measure his worth as a dman?

Give aways in front of his own net? I'd bet he's leading that over the last 12 games.

Minutes played? Everyone was bashing Hatcher when he had the same minutes as Zhitnik is taking now.

Did he inspire or lead the defense to play better? No.

Has he contributed alot offensively? Other than a small outburst around Christmas, no.

Has he personally been beaten for goals? Yes.

Does he have upside? No, he is on the downside of his career.


What does Zhitnik contribute other than a hard shot from the point and how would you like him evaluated?

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01-10-2007, 01:21 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Flyers_01 View Post
To a certain extent I agree with you in that the +/- on a good team will be better than on a bad team but that's where relative +/- comes into play. Any +/- that's appreciably different than the rest of the team over a period of time is meaningful IMO. What stat do think would measure his worth as a dman?

Give aways in front of his own net? I'd bet he's leading that over the last 12 games.

Minutes played? Everyone was bashing Hatcher when he had the same minutes as Zhitnik is taking now.

Did he inspire or lead the defense to play better? No.

Has he contributed alot offensively? Other than a small outburst around Christmas, no.

Has he personally been beaten for goals? Yes.

Does he have upside? No, he is on the downside of his career.


What does Zhitnik contribute other than a hard shot from the point and how would you like him evaluated?
Well said. Same when discussing Stevens. He obviously cant be individually bashed and blamed for the team's bad defense cause it was there before he got here, but when you trade for a $3.5 million 34 year old dman, I expect a much bigger impact then we have received from him. He hasnt helped much.

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01-10-2007, 02:47 PM
  #45
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I wish we could call Baumgartner up without losing him. Sending him down at the beginning of the year was extremely shortsighted. I would've liked to have seen him get an extended chance on the team. He didn't have a minus +/- when sent down either so it's not like he was screwing up like some of the other dmen. Not spectacular at any one thing but a solid 4-6 dman I would think and would give one of the kids a chance to play big minutes in the AHL this year and be available for call up.

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01-10-2007, 03:19 PM
  #46
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I wish we could call Baumgartner up without losing him. Sending him down at the beginning of the year was extremely shortsighted. I would've liked to have seen him get an extended chance on the team. He didn't have a minus +/- when sent down either so it's not like he was screwing up like some of the other dmen. Not spectacular at any one thing but a solid 4-6 dman I would think and would give one of the kids a chance to play big minutes in the AHL this year and be available for call up.
I agree. He wasnt doing bad to begin with, and cant do any worse then Printz at least

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01-10-2007, 04:27 PM
  #47
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Isles guy here.

After watching Meyer play for the past two games with the Isles, pretty impressed far. He's got a low center of gravity, and is very mobile. He's been instrumental on a few goals already, with his quickness, hands, and smarts. He also seems pretty tough for his size, can really take out an opponent with his checking. Very impressed with his balance on his skates, and his speed. The Isles seem to be limiting his ice time, phasing him in slowly. So far, pretty impressive.

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01-10-2007, 07:21 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Lion of the North View Post
It's very relevant and it's not about grammar or spelling, +/- is not a attribute, being a good skater would be a attribute, or having a good shot or vision. +/- is a statistic, like SOG, G, A or points.
LoL.

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01-10-2007, 08:15 PM
  #49
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LoL.
Notice the Swedish flag? I guess math isn't your strong suit.

2+2=4.

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01-10-2007, 10:59 PM
  #50
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Isles guy here.

After watching Meyer play for the past two games with the Isles, pretty impressed far. He's got a low center of gravity, and is very mobile. He's been instrumental on a few goals already, with his quickness, hands, and smarts. He also seems pretty tough for his size, can really take out an opponent with his checking. Very impressed with his balance on his skates, and his speed. The Isles seem to be limiting his ice time, phasing him in slowly. So far, pretty impressive.
That sounds exactly like what we had here, other then the bad stretch at the beginning of the season.

DAMN YOU HOLMGREN

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