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Roberto Luongo is a very good goaltender...

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Old
01-09-2007, 08:15 PM
  #1
Blades of Glory
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Roberto Luongo is a very good goaltender...

and something must be said for the fact that he has 24 wins on a bad offensive team. But he has mediocre statistics for a goaltender as lauded as him, 10th in the league in GAA, and 11th in Save percentage.

One very common argument I hear for defending him is that he has terrible goal support in Vancouver, which is obviously true. But I'd like to know how that is relevant to his GAA being higher than HOF goalies like Peter Budaj and Save Percentage being lower than Rick Dipietro.

Luongo faces the 6th least shots in the NHL per game, yet still has these stats. He has wins, which are very impressive due to his low goal support, but his individual stats, frankly, stink for a guy who's the highest paid goaltender in the league.

If wins alone made a goaltender great, Marty Turco would have been the 3rd best goaltender in the league last year, despite his mediocre 2.55 GAA and .898 Save percentage.

Don't get me wrong, because he's a fantastic goaltender and may have the most amount of plain talent among NHL goalies, but just how does his goal support have anything to do with his mediocre stats?

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01-09-2007, 08:17 PM
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Mike8
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GAA and save percentage help paint a picture of a goaltender's season, but they're certainly not close to being the whole picture.

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01-09-2007, 08:18 PM
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24 wins?!

Damn, I didn't realize he had that many wins. That's really good.

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01-09-2007, 08:19 PM
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Luongo is at his best when he faces a lot of shots.

Basically, his biggest flaw is that he gets cold quickly. His only other mortal flaw is his lack of puckhandling ability. Other than that, he's almost absolutely perfect.

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01-09-2007, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
GAA and save percentage help paint a picture of a goaltender's season, but they're certainly not close to being the whole picture.
Of course they aren't the whole picture. A goaltender can get extremely hot (like Luongo is right now) or extremely cold, and not be justified by his stats. But they do show what he does on average, and that really is the only fair way to grade a goalie over the course of the season.

Those ARE the two most important statistics for a goaltender when evaluating a goalie's individual performance, along with shots faced per game.

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01-09-2007, 08:22 PM
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Luongo is UNDERRATED.

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01-09-2007, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Wilson View Post
and something must be said for the fact that he has 24 wins on a bad offensive team. But he has mediocre statistics for a goaltender as lauded as him, 10th in the league in GAA, and 11th in Save percentage.

One very common argument I hear for defending him is that he has terrible goal support in Vancouver, which is obviously true. But I'd like to know how that is relevant to his GAA being higher than HOF goalies like Peter Budaj and Save Percentage being lower than Rick Dipietro.

Luongo faces the 6th least shots in the NHL per game, yet still has these stats. He has wins, which are very impressive due to his low goal support, but his individual stats, frankly, stink for a guy who's the highest paid goaltender in the league.

If wins alone made a goaltender great, Marty Turco would have been the 3rd best goaltender in the league last year, despite his mediocre 2.55 GAA and .898 Save percentage.

Don't get me wrong, because he's a fantastic goaltender and may have the most amount of plain talent among NHL goalies, but just how does his goal support have anything to do with his mediocre stats?
The thing is, the Canucks do have a low shots against, but I bet this creates a relatively high scoring chance/shot against percentage. Thus it would ultimately hurt Luongo's save percentage.

Luongo would obviously have a higher save percentage on a team that had more shots, but at the same time, created a lower scoring chance/shots ratio.

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01-09-2007, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Wilson View Post
But they do show what he does on average, and that really is the only fair way to grade a goalie over the course of the season.
No, they don't show what the goaltender does on average. That's my point.

The only way to grade a goaltender is to watch enough of their play and know enough of their game.

GAA is a team-stat. Luongo behind a defense with Niedermayer, Lidstrom, Pronger, Zubov, Hannan and Campbell will have a far, far better GAA than if his defense was the Florida Panthers' blueline, for example.

And while save percentage can be more indicative of a goaltender's play, it's also flawed: quality of shots matters more than quantity of shots. Take the Maple Leafs, for example: they shoot the puck an awful lot. Very few of those shots are quality scoring chances. On the other hand, the Sabres have fewer shots on average, but far more of them are good to very good scoring chances. So a goaltender will have a far better save percentage against the Leafs than they would the Sabres, when that's not indicative of how the games were played.

(Note: I haven't checked the numbers. Call the above a hypothetical example.)


This is why GAA and Save Percentage can give you part of a picture, but unless you watch enough of a goaltender, you can't know how they're playing based on statistics. Same goes for a defenseman and the deceptive +/- stat.

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01-09-2007, 08:34 PM
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Luongo makes the big stops, at least that's the way it seems to me. Certain Canuck goalies in the past seem to let one get past them at the most unoppertune times, killing momentum. Luongo seems to play at his best when the game is close (look at the Canucks record in overtime ) , keeping the Canucks in it when their down a goal or whatever. Go for the win, who cares about stats
Luongo

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01-09-2007, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
This is why GAA and Save Percentage can give you part of a picture, but unless you watch enough of a goaltender, you can't know how they're playing based on statistics. Same goes for a defenseman and the deceptive +/- stat.
I agree. This may go a long way to explaining why many Canuck fans such as myself have such a high opinion of Luongo. We appreciate just how valuable he is to our team. No chance we are leading our division without Luongo this year.

On that note, I can see how many Canuck fans may over rate Luongo... after all, our last "#1" starting goalie was none other than Dan Cloutier. This is taking nothing away from Alex Auld who I feel will be a solid starting goalie by the end of next year with the Panthers. When you are used to Cloutier for several years, and all of a sudden Luongo arrives on the scene, it's almost as if he was sent from the heavens as the messiah because we are used to such sub-standard goal tending.

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01-09-2007, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by RyanKeslerRocks View Post
Luongo makes the big stops, at least that's the way it seems to me. Certain Canuck goalies in the past seem to let one get past them at the most unoppertune times, killing momentum. Luongo seems to play at his best when the game is close (look at the Canucks record in overtime ) , keeping the Canucks in it when their down a goal or whatever. Go for the win, who cares about stats
Luongo
I agree. His strongest selling point for me is the fact that he consistently makes the big saves(see the Canucks last two shootout victories), and always gives his team a chance to win. It will be interesting to see if this carries over to the playoffs.

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01-09-2007, 08:42 PM
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Watching the Canucks earlier in the year would show just exactly how flawed the SV% can be. On most nights, the Canucks would fire 30+ shots on net, and score like 2 goals.

That goalie would have gotten at least a 0.933 sv%. Believe me, the goalies didn't play that great. When Ryan Kesler flicking 10mph wrist shots at the net, from like 30 feet out, the goalie has an easy time making saves.

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01-09-2007, 08:42 PM
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He had a bad stretch in November. And facing more shots boosts save percentages. Luongo has face on average 33 shots in this 7 game winning streak and has a great save percentage in those games.

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01-09-2007, 08:44 PM
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Luongo shouldn't be an all-star this year. He has been, indisputably, the Canucks MVP this year. This team goes where Luongo will take them. But, there have been better goalies this year.

Having said that, however, you'd have to see the games to really understand how good he's been for Vancouver. As so many on this board so often say stats don't tell the whole story. They tell some of the story - Luongo could be better, he's had off nights, and he's been up and down. But he makes the big saves (HUGE saves) that keep the Canucks in games. In other words, he's been clutch. The Canucks haven't lost a game in OT this year and have only one shootout loss. This is because of Luongo. When the game is on the line he takes it to another level.

I don't think people realize just how bad this Canucks team is. Without an elite goalie, the Canucks are fighting for a top five pick. This isn't entirely responsible for Luongo's drop in the stats sheet, but it has had an impact for sure. The truth of the matter is that Luongo has done in Vancouver what he could never seem to do in Florida - he has willed a fairly untalented team into a playoff spot. Still, there is half a season to go, and Luongo may yet be denied his first playoff game.

Luongo's not going to have the best stats this year, but he's a winner. To me that's the most important thing. I'd love it if he were top 3 in GAA and SV%, and I'm confident in the coming years he'll contend for the Vezina, but to me the most important thing for a goalie is to make the big saves when the game is on the line and get the wins.

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01-09-2007, 08:56 PM
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I was thinking about something the other day, similar to the idea the poster a few posts above wrote.

Would teams rather pay a goalie to have great stats, or would they rather pay a goalie to win them games. In other words, would you rather pay $5 million to Marc Savard (97 pts last season), or Iginla (67 points last season)? I think the answer is quite simple.

You have to watch the player, in order to decide his worth.

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01-09-2007, 08:59 PM
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Wins is the stat that matters most of all.

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01-09-2007, 09:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OvechkinDomination View Post
Luongo is UNDERRATED.
Indeed. With the amount of venom luongo receives these days, you'd think dan cloutier was better. November is the month that brought down luongo's stats. That's the month when we lost willie mitchell to a concussion and sami salo to injury. We were dressing ahl defensemen that month.

His stats by month.

Oct - 2.14 GAA .923 SV%
Nov - 2.68 GAA .896 SV%
Dec - 2.68 GAA .912 SV%
Jan - 1.92 GAA .940 SV%


Last edited by Rover*: 01-09-2007 at 09:14 PM.
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01-09-2007, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
Wins is the stat that matters most of all.
True. But that, too, is of course a team stat more than a goaltender statistic.

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01-09-2007, 09:14 PM
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Vancouver is winning because people like Linden are scoring not because of Luongo carrying the team....if he was carrying their team then his stats would be better wouldn't they?

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01-09-2007, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Tobakecookies View Post
Vancouver is winning because people like Linden are scoring not because of Luongo carrying the team....if he was carrying their team then his stats would be better wouldn't they?
Posts like these just screams of "I haven't watched more than 2 Canucks games this year, but I'd like to throw in my thoughful opinion anyways".

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01-09-2007, 09:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OvechkinDomination View Post
Luongo is UNDERRATED.
he pretty much dropped from great to average the moment he was traded...


Now he is apparently 'overrated' even though there is nothing but threads proclaiming how 'overrated' and average he is.

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01-09-2007, 09:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Wilson View Post
and something must be said for the fact that he has 24 wins on a bad offensive team. But he has mediocre statistics for a goaltender as lauded as him, 10th in the league in GAA, and 11th in Save percentage.

One very common argument I hear for defending him is that he has terrible goal support in Vancouver, which is obviously true. But I'd like to know how that is relevant to his GAA being higher than HOF goalies like Peter Budaj and Save Percentage being lower than Rick Dipietro.

Luongo faces the 6th least shots in the NHL per game, yet still has these stats. He has wins, which are very impressive due to his low goal support, but his individual stats, frankly, stink for a guy who's the highest paid goaltender in the league.

If wins alone made a goaltender great, Marty Turco would have been the 3rd best goaltender in the league last year, despite his mediocre 2.55 GAA and .898 Save percentage.

Don't get me wrong, because he's a fantastic goaltender and may have the most amount of plain talent among NHL goalies, but just how does his goal support have anything to do with his mediocre stats?
Who would you rather have?

Martin Brodeur or Marty Turco?
Grant Fuhr or Curtis Joseph?
Patrick Roy or Dominek Hasek?
Patrick Elias or Joe Thornton?
Bryan Trottier or Marcel Dionne?

Some players win and some players get great stats. The two aren't mutually exclusive but between winning and "putting up stats," I know which I prefer. Luongo may not have the most impressive save % or the shiniest GAA but he is second in the entire NHL in wins. You can have two lines of Joe Thorntons and Jonathon Cheechoos and dominate a for decade like Ottawa did, however if you can't win, stats lose their meaning when you cannot contextualize them in the spirit of winning.

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01-09-2007, 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Brule View Post
Posts like these just screams of "I haven't watched more than 2 Canucks games this year, but I'd like to throw in my thoughful opinion anyways".
I know I have watched more than 2 Canuck games...but since you have watched more games then me please tell me how Luongo's game saving and godly saves are different from any other goaltender's saves?

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01-09-2007, 09:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
Wins is the stat that matters most of all.
When addressing a goalie's play? I think not.

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Old
01-09-2007, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tobakecookies View Post
Vancouver is winning because people like Linden are scoring not because of Luongo carrying the team....if he was carrying their team then his stats would be better wouldn't they?
Luongo's stats during the canucks current 7 game winning streak.

2.24 GAA .931 SV%

Luongo's stats during his past 12 games where he's won 10 out of the last 12 games.

2.23 GAA .925 SV%

Luongo's stats in his last 10 wins (throw out the 2 games he lost during his past 12 games).

1.97 GAA .936 SV%

Luongo's stats in 9 wins out of his past 10 wins if you throw out the calgary game where the canucks won 6-5 and he did not play great that game.

1.65 GAA .946 SV%

I think it's safe to say he's the reason the canucks have been winning lately.


Last edited by Rover*: 01-09-2007 at 09:38 PM.
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