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Poll; Markov at $5.5M and/or Souray at $5M

View Poll Results: Play GM...
Markov at $5.5M for 3 years 43 36.13%
Souray at $5.0M for 3 years 6 5.04%
Both at a combined $10.5M for 3 years 63 52.94%
Neither at those salaries; Use the money for a UFA D and and line centre. 7 5.88%
Voters: 119. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
01-11-2007, 11:27 AM
  #1
zurg999
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Poll; Markov at $5.5M and/or Souray at $5M

Nothing else considered, just in terms of pure worth to the team, what would your preference be? Assume a three year contract for all deals.

To even the playing field, lets say opting to sign both means signing or trading for no other impact FA, such as the 2nd line center everyone says the team needs.

It's my opinion that Markov should be worth slightly more than Souray on the market. Nothings for sure though in a bidding war. I don't think the numbers above are unreasonable and they could possibly be low.

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01-11-2007, 11:31 AM
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I don't think Markov will fetch $5.5m. I think both will fetch $5m, Souray will probably use McCabe as a comparable in negotiation, maybe get $5.25. (though he deserves more than McCabe, McCabe is overpaid)

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01-11-2007, 11:32 AM
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Markov, without a doubt, I"d be surprised if he signed at 5.5, I could see him get a million more. Hopefully, the Habs will be able to Kaberle him.

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01-11-2007, 11:35 AM
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Just Markov.

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01-11-2007, 11:39 AM
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Blind Gardien
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If I could get them both signed for 3 years at a combined $10.5M per year, I'd be doing backflips. That'd be fantastic! It'd leave us with $3M to sign Rivet too, and if the cap goes up to $47.5M, we might even dare to dream about getting one of Bonk or Johnson back too.

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01-11-2007, 11:54 AM
  #6
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Markov is the only guy I want signed for sure. Souray I would resign him if he wants anything under 5M. Both of them signed for 10.5M over 3 years would be great too.

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Old
01-11-2007, 11:57 AM
  #7
zurg999
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
If I could get them both signed for 3 years at a combined $10.5M per year, I'd be doing backflips. That'd be fantastic! It'd leave us with $3M to sign Rivet too, and if the cap goes up to $47.5M, we might even dare to dream about getting one of Bonk or Johnson back too.
BG; we saw the excellent analysis you did a couple of months back (a link to it would be great!)

I'm in agreement with you; Maybe incentives like contract length, front ending, etc can be used to convince both to stay at something approaching those numbers. I'll believe it when I see it.

I'd really like if Rivet would stay at or near what he's making now ($2.4M?) if he's offered more than one year. I'm his biggest booster, but I shudder at the thought of having him on the books at $3M down the road.

I'd also prefer Bonk back at under $3M as opposed to Johnson at $2.5M+.

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Old
01-11-2007, 12:02 PM
  #8
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Souray Will Be Joke At 5 Million

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
Just Markov.
Markov is ok at 5 mil , he is a consistent force on defence. SOURAY IS A TOTAL RIP OFF, he picked the right year to have a career year , lets face the facts.

1) he has had only a couple of very good years and at 30 , HE WON`T EARN HIS KEEP on a long term deal .

2) He is a solid powerplay specialist , he is a weak defender ala McCabe , and he is groslly overpaid

3) *** and HTF do you pay Souray 5-6 when Pronger or Neidermayer make 6+.
THESE GM`S HAVE TO WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE , IF SIURAY IS PAID
IN THAT LEAGUE , HE IS NOWHERE I THAT
CLASS.

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Old
01-11-2007, 12:04 PM
  #9
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I'd overpay to keep Markov.

I would not keep Souray. I would prefer to use the cash elsewhere.

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Old
01-11-2007, 12:13 PM
  #10
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i say "bye souray!!"

yes, he can score lots of goals, but if he wants n e thing more than 4 million, we should get rid of him and keep markov..i also think we should get rid of rivet

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Old
01-11-2007, 12:38 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
If I could get them both signed for 3 years at a combined $10.5M per year, I'd be doing backflips. That'd be fantastic! It'd leave us with $3M to sign Rivet too, and if the cap goes up to $47.5M, we might even dare to dream about getting one of Bonk or Johnson back too.
I keep thinking of Kaberle/McCabe and wonder if 12-13 gets you all 3 of them ?

Reading some of Souray's comments, when he's suggesting Markov is the best of them, and Rivet wants to stay, you wonder if he's reluctantly thinking,, maybe it's time to cash out ? He'll never be worth more than right now, he has to think of family and lifestyle, why not see what's out there. otoh, I think he genuinely is proud of his time here and has no desire to leave, other than thinking maybe it's time.


As highly as we think of Markov, do you think GM's around the league see him in Redden's category ? I'm not so sure. As good as he is, he gets plagued by some bad streaks, sort of never really gets to where he should and stays there. I could be wrong, you see your own guy too much and judge him differently, but maybe, league wide, we over value him ?

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01-11-2007, 12:39 PM
  #12
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Both at 10.5 millions would be perfect .

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01-11-2007, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Both at a combined $10.5M for 3 years
Definately not realistic.

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Old
01-11-2007, 12:44 PM
  #14
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I really hope they can keep both... I love having these two.

whatever it costs...

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01-11-2007, 12:44 PM
  #15
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This thread or any other thread talking about Markov and Souray should be a sticky.

In fact, it would be interesting to put a sticky on our UFA to be and then, the people could discuss about it when they want.

IMO, there are too much threads about it since a couple of weeks.

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01-11-2007, 12:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shimy1221 View Post
i say "bye souray!!"

yes, he can score lots of goals, but if he wants n e thing more than 4 million, we should get rid of him and keep markov..i also think we should get rid of rivet
Souray is one of the things why your powerplay is so succesfull right now. You will be having hard time decising between Markov and Souray. Markov is better defensively, but Souray is great PQ. We'll see.

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Old
01-11-2007, 01:15 PM
  #17
Quiet Robert
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
If I could get them both signed for 3 years at a combined $10.5M per year, I'd be doing backflips. That'd be fantastic! It'd leave us with $3M to sign Rivet too, and if the cap goes up to $47.5M, we might even dare to dream about getting one of Bonk or Johnson back too.
Agreed. Getting both for 10.5 for 3 years would be just about as good as it gets. I'd like to see Markov locked up a little longer though. Still, I don't know how realistic 10.5 is. As has been discussed earlier, there's always the danger of some dumb GM giving Souray a monster contract.

I love Kaberle's contract as it can be used as a basis for Markov's, but I hate what Jovo and McCabe's contracts do for Souray. Not that these will necessarily be used as benchmarks, so who knows.

As for value to the team, we have to consider that Souray is a big reason the PP is doing so well, so I think if we could get him at 3 year deal for that kind of money it would be worth it. Markov to me is simply a must sign. His value extends beyond the PP, where he can be an excellent quaterback, to all zones of the ice. There really aren't many dmen who are better than him.

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01-11-2007, 01:24 PM
  #18
Blind Gardien
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zurg999 View Post
BG; we saw the excellent analysis you did a couple of months back (a link to it would be great!)
Here is a refresh:

*********************************************
FORWARDS
-------------------
Koivu - $4.75M
Kovalev - $4.5M
Samsonov - $3.525M
Begin - $1.057M
Latendresse - $0.85M
Murray - $0.6M
* Ryder (RFA) - $2.5M (hedging down a bit since he's not scoring at a 30-goal pace)
* Higgins (RFA) - $2.0M (comparables like Stoll, Cammalleri apply IMO)
* Plekanec (RFA) - $0.85M (seems reasonable to bring Plek/Perez to Latendresse's #)
* Perezhogin (RFA) - $0.85M
=====================
= $21.482M on 10 forwards, 3 spots still to fill (see below)

DEFENSE
---------------
Bouillon - $1.875M
Dandenault - $1.725M
Streit - $0.6M
* Komisarek (RFA) - $1.5M
===================
= $5.7M on 4 dmen, 3 spots still to fill (see below)

GOALIES
--------------
Huet - $2.875M
Price/Danis/Halak - $0.875M (picking the high end if Price makes it)
==============
= $3.75M on goaltending

SUB-TOTAL
===========> $30.932M with 3F,3D left to go

Now, I would suggest budgeting to the current cap of $44M is a safe target... it's just $1M more than the current payroll, so if the team has an "internal cap" to operate to, that shouldn't be beyond it, plus it leaves any additional cap increase free as "contingency" money in the event that some of the estimates I've made run even higher (which is always a possibility IMO, *especially* if the cap does up and that drives the market upwards in general)...

Soooo... $44M - $30.932M = ~$13M free to spend.

If...

Souray = $5M, Markov = $5M, Rivet = $3M... well, there it all goes.

And we still have 3 forward spots to fill. If it was Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Ferland/Chip, we'd be looking at ~$2M. So *if* all of the estimates above hold true, and *if* the team remains willing to spend to any new cap max, and *if* the cap really does go up by at least $2M, then you could look at that combination of kids as filling up any remaining cap increase space.
************************************************** **

$500k won't make a difference to the above projections, assuming the cap goes up as predicted to accomodate those 3 rookie forwards to finish off the roster, so $10.5M for Souray and Markov would be a coup.

Quote:
I'm in agreement with you; Maybe incentives like contract length, front ending, etc can be used to convince both to stay at something approaching those numbers. I'll believe it when I see it.
I think they'll get more. But as you say, some clever front-ending could be a good way of convincing them. As the standard argument goes, if you give them a contract that averages out to $5M per year, say $25M over 5 years, but break it down to something like $7M-$6M-$5M-$4M-$3M, a good investment of the surplus cash from the first couple of years will pay off to dramatically more than the average salary would give you on the back-end years.
Quote:
I'd really like if Rivet would stay at or near what he's making now ($2.4M?) if he's offered more than one year. I'm his biggest booster, but I shudder at the thought of having him on the books at $3M down the road.
Well, to be honest I had always been pegging Rivet at $3M in my estimates going off his performance of last year. And while we've seen flashes of it this year too, even a Rivet fan like me would admit his overall level hasn't been nearly that good. So, as time goes by, I object less and less to the idea that he should be signed for less than $3M.
Quote:
I'd also prefer Bonk back at under $3M as opposed to Johnson at $2.5M+.
Per the above, that's still a tight fit... although you can look at the estimates to guys like Ryder and Higgins and Rivet, say, and probably dream of ways to shave further to squeeze Bonk or Johnson back into the picture. Or as I had suggested before, shaving Samsonov away entirely gets them both back in the picture. And I maintain that both of Bonk and Johnson are contributing more to the team's success than Samsonov is.

Anyway, bottom line remains... $10M, or $10.5M for Markov and Souray would let us keep them both.

And I'm also inclining towards the idea that even if they were to come in at $12-13M combined, finding a way to evict Samsonov, or just not re-signing Rivet and bringing up a Cote, well, it might offend our sensibilities in some ways to see $6M+ contracts on two defensemen, but I think it would be the most beneficial investment to the club. Even if you wanted to drop one of them and put $6M on a Briere or Drury or Doan or Smyth or Gomez instead... honestly, I don't believe an impact forward, even a centre, would mean as much to the team's performance as Markov or Souray do. But that's just me.

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Old
01-11-2007, 01:25 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
If I could get them both signed for 3 years at a combined $10.5M per year, I'd be doing backflips. That'd be fantastic! It'd leave us with $3M to sign Rivet too, and if the cap goes up to $47.5M, we might even dare to dream about getting one of Bonk or Johnson back too.
Dropping our 3 UFA forwards, Niinimaa and Aebischer saves us about 9M, yes, but then they need to be replaced by our own young guys, which locks up about 3M and keeping to our RFAs takes about that much aswell (Higgins Komisarek and Plekanec due big raises).

Rivet could be left walking, but that opens up another top 4 dman spot with our team, so propably not much save there. 10.5M for Markov and Souray means net addition of 3.5M it would take payroll roughly to 46M which is way too close to ceiling you give. This considering there might be hole left to fill at 2nd line center.

Personally I dont think is possible to keep both of them.

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Old
01-11-2007, 01:32 PM
  #20
Blind Gardien
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Originally Posted by mcphee View Post
As highly as we think of Markov, do you think GM's around the league see him in Redden's category ? I'm not so sure. As good as he is, he gets plagued by some bad streaks, sort of never really gets to where he should and stays there. I could be wrong, you see your own guy too much and judge him differently, but maybe, league wide, we over value him ?
Well, that's our ace in the hole, maybe... we'd have a few celebratory toasts around here if that turned out to be the case and we could sign Markov to something under $5M, like Kaberle got. And as you say, it could even turn out that way. I'm still thinking more likely *now* if Gainey can get him signed mid-season than in the summer when other GMs get to take their shots, though.

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01-11-2007, 01:34 PM
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So, it seems going hat in hand to a team like Washington and saying if you'll take Sammy for a year, I'll be your friend, may be the way to go. In effect, you could be giving up a 3rd to get them to help us clear space, if [IF] Souray was willing.

Up front, it seems Ryder and Samsonov are the 2 ? marks. The fall back is whether there's a guy the likes of Kuba, [is that the name ?] that TB signed. Decent puck moving guy, just under 3M if my memory is accurate. For the most part, it seems steady as she goes is the way to go. Work with your guys to improve. I know that's foreign to how we look at things now, a bad year means it's your last year, but continuity isn't the worst thing. Keeping your guys, taking a vacation July 1, not getting that, the parade's passing us by feeling by July 2, may be the way to go. boring, ehh ?

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01-11-2007, 01:37 PM
  #22
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Sign both, cut loose Bonk and Rivet and trade Samsonov (someone will bite this summer -- throw in a pick to make it happen if necessary). Resign Johnson, promote Lapierre and Grabovski, and sign a 5-6th D-man for $1 mil.

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01-11-2007, 01:55 PM
  #23
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I think it's impossible so sign Markov under 5 mil a year. Souray and him would at least command 5,5 a year on the free agent market.

I'm more and more convinved Souray will cash in somewhere else.

So it will be at least 11 mil to keep them both. And I wouldn't want Souray at 6 mil on my team... My fear is that some GM will end up giving him that. Could this happen?

About Markov, anyone here thinks he could just go back to Russia? Might sound crazy, but reading this interview about him a couple of weeks ago makes you think he could just do that.

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01-11-2007, 02:07 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
Here is a refresh:

*********************************************
FORWARDS
-------------------
Koivu - $4.75M
Kovalev - $4.5M
Samsonov - $3.525M
Begin - $1.057M
Latendresse - $0.85M
Murray - $0.6M
* Ryder (RFA) - $2.5M (hedging down a bit since he's not scoring at a 30-goal pace)
* Higgins (RFA) - $2.0M (comparables like Stoll, Cammalleri apply IMO)
* Plekanec (RFA) - $0.85M (seems reasonable to bring Plek/Perez to Latendresse's #)
* Perezhogin (RFA) - $0.85M
=====================
= $21.482M on 10 forwards, 3 spots still to fill (see below)

DEFENSE
---------------
Bouillon - $1.875M
Dandenault - $1.725M
Streit - $0.6M
* Komisarek (RFA) - $1.5M
===================
= $5.7M on 4 dmen, 3 spots still to fill (see below)

GOALIES
--------------
Huet - $2.875M
Price/Danis/Halak - $0.875M (picking the high end if Price makes it)
==============
= $3.75M on goaltending

SUB-TOTAL
===========> $30.932M with 3F,3D left to go

Now, I would suggest budgeting to the current cap of $44M is a safe target... it's just $1M more than the current payroll, so if the team has an "internal cap" to operate to, that shouldn't be beyond it, plus it leaves any additional cap increase free as "contingency" money in the event that some of the estimates I've made run even higher (which is always a possibility IMO, *especially* if the cap does up and that drives the market upwards in general)...

Soooo... $44M - $30.932M = ~$13M free to spend.

If...

Souray = $5M, Markov = $5M, Rivet = $3M... well, there it all goes.

And we still have 3 forward spots to fill. If it was Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Ferland/Chip, we'd be looking at ~$2M. So *if* all of the estimates above hold true, and *if* the team remains willing to spend to any new cap max, and *if* the cap really does go up by at least $2M, then you could look at that combination of kids as filling up any remaining cap increase space.
************************************************** **

$500k won't make a difference to the above projections, assuming the cap goes up as predicted to accomodate those 3 rookie forwards to finish off the roster, so $10.5M for Souray and Markov would be a coup.


I think they'll get more. But as you say, some clever front-ending could be a good way of convincing them. As the standard argument goes, if you give them a contract that averages out to $5M per year, say $25M over 5 years, but break it down to something like $7M-$6M-$5M-$4M-$3M, a good investment of the surplus cash from the first couple of years will pay off to dramatically more than the average salary would give you on the back-end years.
Well, to be honest I had always been pegging Rivet at $3M in my estimates going off his performance of last year. And while we've seen flashes of it this year too, even a Rivet fan like me would admit his overall level hasn't been nearly that good. So, as time goes by, I object less and less to the idea that he should be signed for less than $3M.

Per the above, that's still a tight fit... although you can look at the estimates to guys like Ryder and Higgins and Rivet, say, and probably dream of ways to shave further to squeeze Bonk or Johnson back into the picture. Or as I had suggested before, shaving Samsonov away entirely gets them both back in the picture. And I maintain that both of Bonk and Johnson are contributing more to the team's success than Samsonov is.

Anyway, bottom line remains... $10M, or $10.5M for Markov and Souray would let us keep them both.

And I'm also inclining towards the idea that even if they were to come in at $12-13M combined, finding a way to evict Samsonov, or just not re-signing Rivet and bringing up a Cote, well, it might offend our sensibilities in some ways to see $6M+ contracts on two defensemen, but I think it would be the most beneficial investment to the club. Even if you wanted to drop one of them and put $6M on a Briere or Drury or Doan or Smyth or Gomez instead... honestly, I don't believe an impact forward, even a centre, would mean as much to the team's performance as Markov or Souray do. But that's just me.
You know.. I was in disagreement with you for the first time in a long time on this issue. But you've been rehashing the argument so much that I'm starting to falter. You're breaking me down.

My biggest issue with this isn't the effect for next year.. but the effect of having a contract of 5 million +, given to Souray, thus handicaping our ability to react in the future (2008-9-10) if needed.

But the I guess the argument is: Do you think Souray will be as good as he was this year, for another 2-3 years.

I doubt it. But if the answer is yes, then by all means, give him 6 million.

But as I said earlier, I'm starting to sway...

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01-11-2007, 02:20 PM
  #25
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I don't think its even about the money for Souray...he's leaving for the West no matter what we offer him...

Markov will get the same money Johnsonn got with the Wild this summer, if not more since he is younger; so $5M seems realistic for him on a long term contract...

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