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Old
01-14-2007, 09:29 PM
  #1
Hemsky4PM
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Hypothetical (of the negative variety)

Trade deadline...Oilers are 8-10 points back of the final playoff spot. 18 games remaining.

Smyth is unsigned, looking to hit it rich as a UFA. The Oilers are at a crossroads. This season appears lost. Should Lowe deal away Smyth...AND Roloson...and anyone else who fetches a fair return (Sykora perhaps). It's not in Lowe's nature to do...but it might be the right move in the long term.

This isn't a panic thread, but just something to consider if fortunes don't turn.

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01-14-2007, 09:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Trade deadline...Oilers are 8-10 points back of the final playoff spot. 18 games remaining.

Smyth is unsigned, looking to hit it rich as a UFA. The Oilers are at a crossroads. This season appears lost. Should Lowe deal away Smyth...AND Roloson...and anyone else who fetches a fair return (Sykora perhaps). It's not in Lowe's nature to do...but it might be the right move in the long term.

This isn't a panic thread, but just something to consider if fortunes don't turn.
Fair, and good, question.

I say deal Sykora, Smith, maybe Roloson but definitely not Smyth who offers increased value of being an elite vet who is comfortable with, and who's game translates okay to playing with younger players.

If we are in rebuild no better player possible than Smytty to be the torch passer. Smyth is great at working with young players and imparting experience.

He brings much more than on ice ability. He's our Stevie Y. and more.

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01-14-2007, 09:44 PM
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I think the Oilers can get better younger players for the money that they spend on these players. As much as we love their efforts, they don't have that many years left in their careers. I'd rather spend the money on a Havlat type player if they were available. It all depends on how much the management is willing to risk to trade or let these players go.

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01-14-2007, 09:46 PM
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Just to play with some simple numbers, if the 8th place team is on pace for a 95 point season come the trading deadline and have 18 games left to play, they should have 76 points by that time.

If the Oilers are 8 points back at that juncture, and assuming they're extremely fortunate to not have any other teams between them and the 8th place team, then they'd need at least 27 points in their last 18 games, in other words no worse than 14-4...not impossible, but those odds are extremely long. Of course, they may only need as little as 90 points to get to the dance, and given a rougher 2nd half schedule the Oilers had better pray they don't need 95 points.

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01-14-2007, 09:49 PM
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IMO deal Roloson, Smith, Sykora and maybe Smyth if he is really playing hard-ball. We could change the face of our team for the next 5+ years if all goes well. I just hope taht if it gets to that point that our vets that are worth good value on the open market isn't injured so that we are screwed in terms of making these types of deals.

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01-14-2007, 09:53 PM
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It would make sense for Lowe to get what he can for any potential UFAs -- I doubt anyone will take Roloson off Edmonton's hands - he seems to be struggling at being a number 1 goalie and is too expensive to be a backup...

But as you pointed out, it might not be in Lowe's nature to throw in the towel...

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01-14-2007, 10:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Trade deadline...Oilers are 8-10 points back of the final playoff spot. 18 games remaining.

Smyth is unsigned, looking to hit it rich as a UFA. The Oilers are at a crossroads. This season appears lost. Should Lowe deal away Smyth...AND Roloson...and anyone else who fetches a fair return (Sykora perhaps). It's not in Lowe's nature to do...but it might be the right move in the long term.

This isn't a panic thread, but just something to consider if fortunes don't turn.
After the off season this team had, the scenario you are presenting would be another major blow to this team (and the city)....I really hope it doesn't unfold that way. This team would definatley have an identity problem losing Smyth in the same year. It would be presented as another example of a player that has had enough of Edmonton.
Having said that, if its March 1st and Smyth isn't signed after almost 2 months of negotiations (and the team is floundering), then I think the writing may be on the wall for his career as an Oiler. There are some teams out there (with some cap room) that may feel Smyth would put them over the top and that dramatically inflates his value in terms of a new contract. Hopefully that would also apply in terms of value in a deadline deal even though he is a pending UFA. Lowe would be forced to deal him and Lowe has certainly shown he has the balls to do it. As far as Roloson goes I would be surprised if he was dealt. He is already signed and looks to be a good mentor for the likes of Dubnyk and possibly JDD. The Oilers could be doing a lot worse with a starting goaltender (Raycroft, Theodore, Belfour) and I think Lowe knows/likes what he has in Roloson.

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Old
01-14-2007, 11:32 PM
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I'm not personally ever in favour of the purposely sucking for a high draft pick camp. I think you should try to make your team as competitive as you possibly can every year, if later into the year you realize your not going to be successful by all means move some higher priced vets if they are a non-factor in future success.

Roloson- I say keep no matter what, I'm not so quick to forget how painful it was watching our 3 headed dragon of last year. Dump Rolly without a good replacement and we would be embarrassingly bad.

Sykora- I don't think portraying the image of disloyalty to UFA's is a good thing for a place that has so much trouble enticing them in the first place. I say keep Sykora unless he gives the impression he'd like a trade to a contender.

Smyth- Dependant on whether or not Lowe thinks he can re-sign him. Smyth can fetch us a good price on the deadline I'm sure. This team would probably be on par with the Phoenix - Columbus level without him.

Smith- God he's been playing awful this year. We don't have the internal structure within to replace him yet. I'd stick with him and hope he comes back better next year, I remember being down on Staios last year, but he has easily been our best defender this year (not that it's been that hard ).

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01-14-2007, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Fair, and good, question.

I say deal Sykora, Smith, maybe Roloson but definitely not Smyth who offers increased value of being an elite vet who is comfortable with, and who's game translates okay to playing with younger players.

If we are in rebuild no better player possible than Smytty to be the torch passer. Smyth is great at working with young players and imparting experience.

He brings much more than on ice ability. He's our Stevie Y. and more.
If Roli continues this mental break down I would send him off first. If Nedved continues to have good chemistry with Hemmer I would ship sykora off. Sign Smyth or Doan. Sign Torres and actively shop Horc and Lupul because if we miss the playoffs you can place the blame on both these two.

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01-15-2007, 12:00 AM
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nobody is so foolish as to take horcoff.... i honestly think we'd have trouble *giving* him away, and im not kidding.... the absolute most we could ever hope for with horcoff would be a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder.... why would any GM ever take on that monster contract for a player who scores 40-50 points/season?

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01-15-2007, 12:10 AM
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With his contract and his age Roloson is untradeable and will finish his career with the Oilers

Smyth will garner a decent return, but his UFA status and the possibility of a big payday with temper that a bit

Sykora would probably be your most valuable asset due to his next contract not being a massive huge thing.

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01-15-2007, 01:03 AM
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
nobody is so foolish as to take horcoff.... i honestly think we'd have trouble *giving* him away, and im not kidding.... the absolute most we could ever hope for with horcoff would be a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder.... why would any GM ever take on that monster contract for a player who scores 40-50 points/season?
Yeah, I wonder if anybody still questions me calling it a gross overpay a couple months ago.

This is exactly the type of contract anchor deadweight you don't want if you want to be contender status in the postcap cba.

We're basically paying more for a Marchant type player then what we scoffed at precap when he was scooped.

Don't get me wrong. Horcoff will improve his game and is showing plenty of signs but 3.6M?

just say no.

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01-15-2007, 01:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yeah, I wonder if anybody still questions me calling it a gross overpay a couple months ago.

This is exactly the type of contract anchor deadweight you don't want if you want to be contender status in the postcap cba.

We're basically paying more for a Marchant type player then what we scoffed at precap when he was scooped.

Don't get me wrong. Horcoff will improve his game and is showing plenty of signs but 3.6M?

just say no.
there is one problem though with that albotros of a contract, what would he get in arbitration - "fair market value" and all the arbitrator needs is comparables and there are two perfect comparable players that make the same amount as overrated does and that is Conroy and Morrison although Conroy is not as much of a coattail rider as I thought when he was in Calgary. So regardless that guy was going to get that type of money, but atleast it would not have been as long of a deal.


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01-15-2007, 01:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yeah, I wonder if anybody still questions me calling it a gross overpay a couple months ago.

This is exactly the type of contract anchor deadweight you don't want if you want to be contender status in the postcap cba.

We're basically paying more for a Marchant type player then what we scoffed at precap when he was scooped.

Don't get me wrong. Horcoff will improve his game and is showing plenty of signs but 3.6M?

just say no.

Oh yeah, I still think you're out to lunch. There's nothing wrong with that contract and he's a much better player than Marchant.

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01-15-2007, 03:07 AM
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Oh yeah, I still think you're out to lunch. There's nothing wrong with that contract and he's a much better player than Marchant.
Well, for the Oilers sake he'd better be better. Spending 3.6M post cap is a locked in commitment that stops you from spending that $ on other players. Period.

We don't have the type of owners that are ever likely to pay out. Right?

But my point isn't saying he's better or worse.

I am saying its interesting how many Oiler fans uniformly mocked deals like the Marchant deal and yet we now seem to accept an overpay when its our team doing it.

FTR I like Horcoff when he's performing to his capability. But at this price I'd prefer spending it differently.

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01-15-2007, 03:52 AM
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I have to disagree that there wouldn't be a lot of teams interested in Roloson. I can think off the top of two teams that would take him. The NYR and Boston. A lot of contending teams are fine and probably wouldn't consider taking a guy with 3.5M and 3M left on his deal, but the Rangers, they have Lundqvist at rock bottom salary next season and Roloson would be an upgrade on Weekes and Lundqvist (short term). The Bruins have had a revolving door at back-up this season and Roloson is clearly more experienced than Thomas. Thomas is making back-up money, so the Bruins would be a possibility.

The only thing that makes moving Roloson attractive IMO would be getting a guy like Biron in the summer. The reality though is that because some many teams are looking for goalie help this summer (Phoenix, Philly, Boston, Florida, Detroit) the value of Biron, Giguere, Aebischer will be inflated anyway.

But what if you call Sather and say, how about Roloson for Montoya and Prucha? That's something worth considering.

I still have faith that the Oilers and Lowe will move quickly to make our team a playoff team this season. As many have said, you don't take a flyer on Nedved if you're getting ready to wave the white flag.

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01-15-2007, 10:36 AM
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There are so many trade threads and predictions of doom around here, that it is tough to pick one to post in.

I like the make up of this team but for the first time this year I have resigned myself to the notion that I don't think they will make the dance. The step back on the blueline combined with the lack of grit up front and what generally feels like an overall lack of confidence within themselves has me thinking that this isn't their year.

The reason I posted that in this thread is because I truly believe that this team is still poised for good things and this trade deadline (along with the summer) is a very critical time in the Oilers taking the next step. Selling off guys for picks doesn't make sense when there is already some pretty attractive talent in the minors that are waiting for their shot. Combine that with the notion that (atleast from what I have picked up on) there isn't any knock your socks off type of talent in this years crop of first rounders.

So where does it leave Klowe?
This is what I would contemplate...

Goaltending

I would move Jussi at any time now. He is unrestricted, he isn't being played enough to really spell off Roloson from getting tired and JDD seems to have found his game again. Bring the kid up and see what he has for the few games they aren't playing Rollie. It may also clarify the picture somewhat in the Dubnyk debate. If JDD can show enough then Dubnyk can comfortably go back to the AHL next year to further hone his game. Jussi's performance in the SCF last year could intrigue a GM enough to perhaps get an overpayment for him.

Defence

I would move Tjarnqvist and possibly Smith. Tjarnqvist isn't long for the org anyways and he may fetch something tangible. It's good asset management when talking about a guy who likely walks in the summer anyways.

Smith is a bit more delicate BUT the defence is changing, be it this year or next summer and with Staios in the mix and Greene bringing the grit, I think Smith could be the odd guy out AND a guy that could bring something nice at the deadline.

Believe it or not I would try to keep Bergeron although I could see another GM wanting him to round out a deal if Klowe has a puckmoving defenceman in his sights.

Offence

Sykora, Nedved, Petersen, Winchester and any number of guys on the farm are all likely gone prior to the start of next season with Lupul being a wild card.

Smyth is the touchy one in this conversation. Personally I don't move Smyth, even if there isn't a deal completed by the deadline. He is a guy that this team needs and personally a 5 or 5.25 mil contract is probably fair for both parties. This isn't 1997 where every guy that hits free agency is gone. There have been a number of examples where players went past July 1 and still re-signed with their old teams so why should Smyth be considered out the door automatically. That said, Klowe can get moving on this anytime now.

So with Smyth assumed to be in the mix, I think Sykora is a goner. I don't mind him on the team but one of the problems with this group is that they aren't very tough to play against and Sykora just magnifies that issue. I would rather give Lupul another year to redeem himself than buck up big money for Sykora where you know he won't bring more. He could probably get you a guy that can play with sandpaper at the deadline and that is what this team sorely needs.

Nedved is gone after this year and is probably untradeable this spring, maybe his is a throw in to get you that little extra from another deal but that is probably the best you can hope for.

Petersen is guy you won't get anything for but Winchester may fetch you something intriguing, Thoresen as well for that matter. They both bring enough to raise an eyebrow but don't do it consistantly enough to make them slam dunks. They are the type of guys that a GM may grab in a swap of projects. Could be a consideration.

The guys that are the real tough decisions in my mind are Pouliot and Jacques. Both guys are exactly what the Oilers need, when they are described by their potential, but neither have been able to show their potential. If both of these guys could take the next step then they really change the look of the team. Not to say that they save this team but they add the different look that they are currently missing. I would say you keep them both and cross your fingers that this year was just a tough lesson for them that they have indeed learned from.

Anyways, that is what I would consider and let this group sink or swim on their own, as long as a full blown panic doesn't set in at KLowe's office and he doesn't do anything drastic (outside of potentially aquiring a top notch puck moving defenceman) and I will be happy.

Even as far as a puck mover goes, the UFA market could provide what he needs with guys like Phillips, Stuart and Souray potentially becoming available.

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01-15-2007, 10:42 AM
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oilers are not going trade Roloson

they have no one that is ready to step in next year

JDD and DD are 2 or 3 years away

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01-15-2007, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
But what if you call Sather and say, how about Roloson for Montoya and Prucha? That's something worth considering.

I
Sather either hangs up or demands Schremp and Lupul as part of the deal

Prucha is 24, on track for 20 goals which is a drop from last year but still not bad. Montoya has been stellar for Hartford which isn't a great team and is likely to be the backup in NY next year. Thats not even close to an appropriate value. Now if Lowe offered Rolo to Sather at the deadline for a third or 4th round pick, I'm sure Sather would take him. Nobody is going to want a 38 year old goalie with a 3 million dollar plus salary hit who's going to be a backup, especially since that contract goes for another two years. Sather is not likely to give another Nedved type favor to Lowe this year.

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01-15-2007, 11:26 AM
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oilers are not going trade Roloson

they have no one that is ready to step in next year

JDD and DD are 2 or 3 years away
Don't get me wrong. I love Roli. What he did for this team last year was unbelievable and he deserves all the reward he can get, but signing him to a 3 yr deal at that 4mil I believe will prove to be a mistake. If a team wanted to bolster its goaltending at the trade deadline I think KLowe should act. There are other interim goalies available if the Oil were to decide to rebuild. Biron in Buffalo for example... Im certain the Sabres will want to deal for some "black aces" to fill character and experience roles on thier upcoming Cup run. They are tight on the cap so Biron seems expendable.

The Pronger/Peca fiasco deal hurt us more than we realize. They were in the long term plan for this team, but having to lose them so quickly really put KLowe against the wall for this season. I'm mightily impressed the Oilers are competing this year, but if the post-season is a long shot by February, then lets get the pieces we need for a good rebuild. I can wait 2-3 years for a contender... couldn't you?

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01-15-2007, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I am saying its interesting how many Oiler fans uniformly mocked deals like the Marchant deal and yet we now seem to accept an overpay when its our team doing it.
And I'm saying you've provided no supporting evidence that Horcoff is even overpaid and therefore I don't see it as remotely interesting.

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01-15-2007, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch67 View Post
Sather either hangs up or demands Schremp and Lupul as part of the deal

Prucha is 24, on track for 20 goals which is a drop from last year but still not bad. Montoya has been stellar for Hartford which isn't a great team and is likely to be the backup in NY next year. Thats not even close to an appropriate value. Now if Lowe offered Rolo to Sather at the deadline for a third or 4th round pick, I'm sure Sather would take him. Nobody is going to want a 38 year old goalie with a 3 million dollar plus salary hit who's going to be a backup, especially since that contract goes for another two years. Sather is not likely to give another Nedved type favor to Lowe this year.
Prucha has been in the doghouse so long that he's begun ordering Iams at team dinners.

I think Sather does this. He likes Montoya, likes him a lot. But he's got Henrik Lundqvist for the long-term and it never hurts to have a veteran goalie who plays out of his mind in the postseason backing up a young goalie who hasn't shown he can do that.

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01-15-2007, 12:56 PM
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Prucha has been in the doghouse so long that he's begun ordering Iams at team dinners.

I think Sather does this. He likes Montoya, likes him a lot. But he's got Henrik Lundqvist for the long-term and it never hurts to have a veteran goalie who plays out of his mind in the postseason backing up a young goalie who hasn't shown he can do that.
Prucha might be in the dog house, but he's still a 20 goal guy, and you don't trade a player like Montoya if the intent is probably to get rid of weekes.

You more likely trade right now would be a duffus for duffus trade of weekes for Rolo. Like I mentioned, nobody is going to want a 3 million dollar plus backup for 2 and a half years.

Sather would be a moron to trade a potential franchise goalie prospect and a decent young scorer for Roloson, they can get much better for Prucha.

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01-15-2007, 01:18 PM
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Anything to stop the Flames

If I am Lowe and I am in this situation I am thinking a few thing.

-How to make my team better
-How to help the ducks (They make it to the finals we get a 1st round pick)
-How to stop the flames (Cause he hates them to)

If the ducks are willing to give up another 1st rounder plus a decent prospect for Smyth I would do it. Hell toss in Sykora for another prospect. No one knows how to sell the farm like Burke.

This also has the added advantage of stacking the Ducks for the playoff. Lets see the Flames get by that lineup.

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01-15-2007, 01:50 PM
  #25
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Oh yeah, I still think you're out to lunch. There's nothing wrong with that contract and he's a much better player than Marchant.
I agree Rivers. Unfortunately contract signings don't come with crystal balls, so a GM only has past performance and trends to consider when negotiating a contract. Horcoff improved every facet of his game year after year with the Oilers and was looking like he was going to mature into a legit 1C. He performed very well in the clutch time of the playoffs, and KLowe had a decision to make: Either sign Horc to a 1 year contract, which could be very expensive if Shawn lit it up this year, or go with the trends and the statistics and expect him to keep improving and sign him to a contract that could look like a bit of a bargain. KLowe chose option B and although it doesn't look great so far for him, I honestly think Horc is turning it around and will by the end of the contract, earn the money and more.

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