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What do the Oilers need in the 2007 draft?

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Old
01-19-2007, 02:29 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
Not sure if that's the best idea as you could end up with the best player in the draft with the 20th pick this year..How many players have already been ranked #1 this year? But getting in the top 5 is always a good option..

The way we have been scouting and drafting the past couple years I have total faith...
Ever since we obtained the 2 1st rounders, This has been on my mind. Is it a better idea to trade up and get a one higher 1st rounder, or is it better to pick twice.

IMO, when you look at our prospect cupboard, we have quite the stack of high level prospects, who could turn into good players for us. What we lack however, is that elite bluechipper. We have the prospect depth, that we arn't in desperate need of 2 more 1st round prospects. This draft doesn't appear to have any/many (depending how you look at the draft) of potential bluechippers, but a top (lets say) 7 pick, would probably yield more than whomever is still avaliable at 15.

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01-19-2007, 02:32 PM
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The guy I want to see in Edmonton (realistacally considering we'll probably be picking in the mid first-round) is Mark Katic. One of, if not the best skating prospect in the draft and although undersized, he is extremely strong.

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01-19-2007, 02:41 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Stoll 16 View Post
The guy I want to see in Edmonton (realistacally considering we'll probably be picking in the mid first-round) is Mark Katic. One of, if not the best skating prospect in the draft and although undersized, he is extremely strong.
So, like MAB?

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01-19-2007, 03:01 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoll 16 View Post
The guy I want to see in Edmonton (realistacally considering we'll probably be picking in the mid first-round) is Mark Katic. One of, if not the best skating prospect in the draft and although undersized, he is extremely strong.
My biggest problem with Katic is his apparent lack of any semblance of defensive positioning. 5'10 defencemen can make it in the NHL if they're quick and strong positionally but it sounds like Katic has a ton of problems in the defensive zone.

I know some don't want to draft defencemen but this looks like the year for them, the first round is very deep with potential top 4 guys. A few that really stick out to me as potential targets are Shattenkirk, Blum (although it sounds like his stock is really rising), Ellerby (I'd absolutely love to snag this kid but I'm guessing he goes top 10), Plante, Hickey, Doyle and Ross (this kid seems to have big boom-bust potential from what I've heard).

Grab one of those guys along with a decent forward like Kevin Veilleux and I would be pretty happy. We'll need to add a goaltender in this draft but there aren't many I would even consider taking in the first round unfortunately.

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01-19-2007, 03:05 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
Not sure if that's the best idea as you could end up with the best player in the draft with the 20th pick this year..How many players have already been ranked #1 this year? But getting in the top 5 is always a good option..

The way we have been scouting and drafting the past couple years I have total faith...
Well, we have a ton of depth everywhere right now, so I don't really see the reason to get another future #3 C and a another future #4 defenseman.

If there's a year to shoot for the moon from an organizational standpoint, this looks like the year to me. I'm not familiar with this years draft - but is there any big forward with great hands in the top 5-10? To me that'd be the guy to go after..

This guy needs another defenseman in the system like Brett Hull needs another donut.

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01-19-2007, 03:08 PM
  #31
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There are two things I believe the Oilers need more then anything else in this draft. They need to trade up in the 1st round and get a top 3 pick, then you would be getting a potential superstar guy like Cherepanov, Esposito, Gagner, etc. The other thing I believe the Oilers should invest in early is another goaltender. I'm guessing that next year JDD gets his shot at being the backup. It never hurts to have extra goaltenders, if they develop they're worth more then any other posistion. Also d-men would be nice but our system isn't too bad for d-men comming up, just on the big club.

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01-19-2007, 03:17 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by PDO View Post

If there's a year to shoot for the moon from an organizational standpoint, this looks like the year to me. I'm not familiar with this years draft - but is there any big forward with great hands in the top 5-10? To me that'd be the guy to go after..
Unfortunately, if there is a year not to shoot for the moon draft-wise, this is it. This draft has an incredibly weak top-end - I was sitting behind a few scouts at the Canadian WJC training camp here in Calgary and they were talking about how their teams rate players. One guy specifically said his team had a few A's and A-'s the previous and that they didn't have one guy in this draft ranked above a B+.

Seriously, even the guys they're talking about for the first overall pick (Kane, Cherepanov, Gagner, Alzner etc.) don't strike me as can't miss prospects whatsoever. Kane is a solid looking young player and I wouldn't be shocked if he succeeds in the NHL but he's definitely not the kind of guy I'd be looking to move a boatload of assets for. I look at Cherepanov and I don't see a potential franchise player. Alzner is a very solid looking defenceman but is he going to even peak at anything more than a 2nd pairing guy? I love the points Gagner is putting up but not once has he impressed me when I've seen him play.

It's somewhat ironic as the Oilers are in a situation where they can actually afford to trade up (something like both first rounders and a decent prospect would be a very solid package) but their isn't really anyone there I would specifically look to trade up for. Teams look to trade up so that they can get a potential franchise guy by sacrificing depth but I simply don't see those franchise guys in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a number of quality picks are made after the #10 spot in the draft.

I suppose it's possible if Lowe and the scouting staff have their eyes set on one guy (Voracek would be a good gamble I suppose and it's looking like he's not even top 10 on a lot of lists anymore) but this strikes me as the kind of year where we would be better off to keep our two picks and grab one gamble and one solid looking kid (maybe something like Veilleux and Nick Ross).

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Old
01-19-2007, 03:22 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral View Post
Unfortunately, if there is a year not to shoot for the moon draft-wise, this is it. This draft has an incredibly weak top-end - I was sitting behind a few scouts at the Canadian WJC training camp here in Calgary and they were talking about how their teams rate players. One guy specifically said his team had a few A's and A-'s the previous and that they didn't have one guy in this draft ranked above a B+.

Seriously, even the guys they're talking about for the first overall pick (Kane, Cherepanov, Gagner, Alzner etc.) don't strike me as can't miss prospects whatsoever. Kane is a solid looking young player and I wouldn't be shocked if he succeeds in the NHL but he's definitely not the kind of guy I'd be looking to move a boatload of assets for. I look at Cherepanov and I don't see a potential franchise player. Alzner is a very solid looking defenceman but is he going to even peak at anything more than a 2nd pairing guy? I love the points Gagner is putting up but not once has he impressed me when I've seen him play.

It's somewhat ironic as the Oilers are in a situation where they can actually afford to trade up (something like both first rounders and a decent prospect would be a very solid package) but their isn't really anyone there I would specifically look to trade up for. Teams look to trade up so that they can get a potential franchise guy by sacrificing depth but I simply don't see those franchise guys in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a number of quality picks are made after the #10 spot in the draft.

I suppose it's possible if Lowe and the scouting staff have their eyes set on one guy (Voracek would be a good gamble I suppose and it's looking like he's not even top 10 on a lot of lists anymore) but this strikes me as the kind of year where we would be better off to keep our two picks and grab one gamble and one solid looking kid (maybe something like Veilleux and Nick Ross).
I say we phone Phoenix and see if two firsts gets us Michalek

The Oilers right now could really afford to not have either of these draft picks given what you're saying. Our team is full of 9's 10's and even a few J's... we don't need more of them, we need a K or A, and if they're not available there's no point drafting a guy who we'll never have room for anyway.

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01-19-2007, 03:24 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO View Post
I say we phone Phoenix and see if two firsts gets us Michalek
Add in Schremp along with Tjarnqvist and I would still make the deal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO
The Oilers right now could really afford to not have either of these draft picks given what you're saying. Our team is full of 9's 10's and even a few J's... we don't need more of them, we need a K or A, and if they're not available there's no point drafting a guy who we'll never have room for anyway.
I think Lowe should hold on to the draft picks simply because I enjoy watching the draft. We certainly have a good stable of prospects but it never hurts to add a few more - we have Petry and Chorney coming along through the pipeline but adding another defenceman wouldn't be a bad move and an impact offensive forward would be nice as well (although I don't see us getting one in this draft). Overall though, I wouldn't be too disappointed if Lowe decides to move one of our first rounders (or both if it can land us a quality top 4 defenceman who will be here long-term).

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Old
01-19-2007, 03:27 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Cerebral View Post
Add in Schremp along with Tjarnqvist and I would still make the deal.
I really do wonder what it'd cost the Oilers in terms of youth to get Michalek. Schremp just strikes me as a player Gretzky would drool over, and we have the 1st's to make a move...

I'd still make that move with those additions as well, and I have to imagine that'd be a hard offer to say "no" to for Phoenix.

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I think Lowe should hold on to the draft picks simply because I enjoy watching the draft. We certainly have a good stable of prospects but it never hurts to add a few more - we have Petry and Chorney coming along through the pipeline but adding another defenceman wouldn't be a bad move and an impact offensive forward would be nice as well (although I don't see us getting one in this draft). Overall though, I wouldn't be too disappointed if Lowe decides to move one of our first rounders (or both if it can land us a quality top 4 defenceman who will be here long-term).
Well, at some point you have to break them into the NHL though. Greene and Smid are AT LEAST a year each away from being anywhere near reliable, Gilbert has to be broken in, Roy looks like he may have a future as a #6 guy who's tough and can play on the PP, Chorney is apparently turning pro..

I'm from the school of thought that you should never be breaking in more than 1 defenseman at a time (and his rookie season should see 50 GP max unless he's Bobby freakin Orr). It just takes a lot of time and investment, and with the UFA age being lowered I don't think it really pays off all that much either.

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01-19-2007, 03:33 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO View Post
I really do wonder what it'd cost the Oilers in terms of youth to get Michalek. Schremp just strikes me as a player Gretzky would drool over, and we have the 1st's to make a move...

I'd still make that move with those additions as well, and I have to imagine that'd be a hard offer to say "no" to for Phoenix.
I just can't see Phoenix moving Michalek, he's their #1 defenceman at such a young age and he has an absolute sweetheart deal as well (possibly the best in the NHL outside of rookie contracts).

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Originally Posted by PDO
Well, at some point you have to break them into the NHL though. Greene and Smid are AT LEAST a year each away from being anywhere near reliable, Gilbert has to be broken in, Roy looks like he may have a future as a #6 guy who's tough and can play on the PP, Chorney is apparently turning pro..

I'm from the school of thought that you should never be breaking in more than 1 defenseman at a time (and his rookie season should see 50 GP max unless he's Bobby freakin Orr). It just takes a lot of time and investment, and with the UFA age being lowered I don't think it really pays off all that much either.
I tend to agree with you about trying to break in too many young defencemen at the same time. Unfortunately, the Oilers are in a situation where they might have to - Gilbert is 23 already so we pretty much need to see what we have with him. Trying to break in two rookies (and three really considering the fact that Greene is in the lineup) is a bloody impossible task to do but the Oilers are busy working through the growing pains right now. I see both Smid and Gilbert with the team long-term (and Roy possibly as a press-box or bottom pairing guy) so at least we're breaking in the right guys.

I've seen some signs from Greene that he could be getting closer to being reliable but he still does mistakes at times. Unfortunately, the same is true with Smid (although I have a good feeling about this kid). Regardless, the experience they've had so far should help with their development a lot and we're still close enough to the playoffs that we haven't committed season-suicide yet.

On the plus side, Petry is a draft and follow kid so we can stick him in the NCAA for a few years and see what happens. I wouldn't bring out Chorney if I was Edmonton, give him one more year to dominate offensively in college while we're breaking in Gilbert and Smid.

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Old
01-19-2007, 03:38 PM
  #37
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Take 4 defensemen the first 4 picks, one of them should work out. Goalies can be traded for.

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01-19-2007, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by PDO View Post
Well, we have a ton of depth everywhere right now, so I don't really see the reason to get another future #3 C and a another future #4 defenseman.
.

2004, 2005 we drafted Schremp and Cogliano with 25th overall picks.. I would have to say they have higher upside than #3 C.... Trukhno 120th overall..Stoll 36th, Hemmer 13th.. I don't think we have to get into the top 5, or top 10 to get someone with top line upside...

That said if Edmonton sees a sparkle in a player I have no problem with them trading up to get the player they covet.

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01-19-2007, 04:09 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Soli View Post
Ever since we obtained the 2 1st rounders, This has been on my mind. Is it a better idea to trade up and get a one higher 1st rounder, or is it better to pick twice.

IMO, when you look at our prospect cupboard, we have quite the stack of high level prospects, who could turn into good players for us. What we lack however, is that elite bluechipper. We have the prospect depth, that we arn't in desperate need of 2 more 1st round prospects. This draft doesn't appear to have any/many (depending how you look at the draft) of potential bluechippers, but a top (lets say) 7 pick, would probably yield more than whomever is still avaliable at 15.
I think a better strategy to obtain a bluechipper is this: trade our lowest 1st for 2 2nds.

Now, that seems sort of counterproductive, but bear with me.

In 2005, the Colorado Avalanche stocked up with four 2nds. They nabbed Paul Stastny, Ryan Stoa, Tom Fritsche and Chris Durand. Along with getting a bluechipper in Stastny- who has blossomed into the role of 2nd line centre in his rookie year- the Avs nabbed considerable depth.

In 2006, the Caps had three 2nds. While none have emerged as NHLers quite yet, Michel Neuvirth has been one of the CHL's best goalies, Francois Bouchard has 96 points in 44 games, and Keith Seabrook could be something special.

For 2007, the Oilers could find themselves in a similar position. With Anaheim's 2nd, our 2nd and two firsts, the opportunity to compile four choices in the second round is at hand.

It's the dartboard approach, sure, but it's getting to the point where such a strategy can only be beneficial. Short of selecting our own Vlasic, keying in on players dinged for size and league is the only way we find our own such steal.

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01-19-2007, 04:16 PM
  #40
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When I talk about top end offensive centermen I'm talking about a guy like Kopitar or Malkin. I realize there aren't any Malkin-like players in this class, but I think a lot of people on this board overrate what Cogliano and Schremp will become. I could see Schremp becoming very much like Kyle Wellwood and Cogliano like Todd Marchant. Brodziak is nothing more than a 3-4th center down the road.

When you look at the wings we don't have a lot in the pipe in terms of offensive touch. Jacques projects to be a bottom 6 forward, same with Thoresen, Mikhnov probably won't ever be on the big team, and then there is a cluster of ho-hum guys like MacDonald, Goulet, Stortini, Bodie and Rohlfs. Then there's the occasional wild card like Bumagin. MAP is the only guy even close to looking like a potential top 6 forward down the road.

I think our situation on defense is much rosier. Greene (4), Smid (2-3), Gilbert (5-6), Roy(5-6), Chorney (?) and Syvret (6) all have the potential to play significant roles on this team down the road. Then there are guys like Petry and Peckham who most haven't seen a lot of to judge. Unless we are drafting a top end guy like Alzner or Ellerby I agree with an earlier poster that drafting a defenseman in the first round isn't a great idea.

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01-19-2007, 04:25 PM
  #41
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I agree you should never pick out of need, you should always take the best player available. If that happens to be a defenseman than so be it.

I would love to see the Oilers package a pick with something and move up. I really like Patrick Kane, he's a bit undersized but reminds me a lot of Daniel Briere. Imagine him and Robbie Schremp together.
depends on where th ducks pick

If the oilers miss the playoffs

you are looking at more then likely pick 10 throgh 15

and the ducks pick being about 25-30

because of where the second pick is goin to be--a trade would not move you into the top 4 and early indications are this is a top 4 pick year again

I think the oilers should keep the picks

draft a d-men with both picks or a d-man and lw

oilers have the depth at center with maps, schremp and cogs

goalies

jury still out on DD and JDD

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01-19-2007, 04:39 PM
  #42
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Attn, Oilers' scouts: Draft directly from the Central Scouting ranking list if you need to! You have repeatedly proven that you are simply not clever or savvy enought to find low-cost diamonds in the rough!
Hmmm...

Andy Moog - 132nd pick overall (713 NHL games played)
Steve Smith - 111th pick overall (804 NHL games played)
Kelly Buchberger - 188th pick overall (1,182 NHL games played)
Shaun Van Allen - 105th pick overall (794 NHL games played)
Shjon Podein - 166th pick overall (699 NHL games played)
Anatoli Semenov - 120th pick overall (362 NHL games played)
Miroslav Satan - 111th pick overall (833 NHL games played*)
Fernando Pisani - 195th pick overall (238 NHL games played*)
Jason Chimera - 121st pick overall (257 NHL games played*)
Shawn Horcoff - 99th pick overall (394 NHL games played*)
Mike Comrie - 91st pick overall (353 NHL games played*)
Matthew Lombardi - 215th pick overall (179 NHL games played*)
Jussi Markkanen - 133rd pick overall (115 NHL games played*)
Kyle Brodziak - 214th pick overall (10 NHL games played*)
Mathieu Roy - 215th pick overall (7 NHL games played*)
Troy Bodie - 278th pick overall
Tyler Spurgeon - 242nd pick overall
Slava Trukhno - 120th pick overall
Fredrik Pettersson - 157th pick overall

Yeah, thanks for coming out.

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01-19-2007, 04:45 PM
  #43
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I think a better strategy to obtain a bluechipper is this: trade our lowest 1st for 2 2nds.

Now, that seems sort of counterproductive, but bear with me.

In 2005, the Colorado Avalanche stocked up with four 2nds. They nabbed Paul Stastny, Ryan Stoa, Tom Fritsche and Chris Durand. Along with getting a bluechipper in Stastny- who has blossomed into the role of 2nd line centre in his rookie year- the Avs nabbed considerable depth.

In 2006, the Caps had three 2nds. While none have emerged as NHLers quite yet, Michel Neuvirth has been one of the CHL's best goalies, Francois Bouchard has 96 points in 44 games, and Keith Seabrook could be something special.

For 2007, the Oilers could find themselves in a similar position. With Anaheim's 2nd, our 2nd and two firsts, the opportunity to compile four choices in the second round is at hand.

It's the dartboard approach, sure, but it's getting to the point where such a strategy can only be beneficial. Short of selecting our own Vlasic, keying in on players dinged for size and league is the only way we find our own such steal.

Well, thats certainly an idea I haven't entertained, and while the benefits are obvious, im not sure it quantity > quality in this case. Sure you could trade down for another chance to pick, but you could also miss out on talent you could have nabbed (Heh, the jury, ie: us, are still out on this, but Parise vs MAP and JFJ. They're young and can still turn the trade in our favor, but currently, NJs won).

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01-19-2007, 05:00 PM
  #44
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I would like us to grab a defencemen with some Offensive upside, but more importantly awesome defence positioning, and if possible, a RWer cause we are a bit short in the sense of skill wise.

Dreams:

1.) Petricki

2.) Vorachek


Reality (Sighs)...:

1.) Katic/Ellerby/Ross/Hickey/Stich (Though i really want some more info on this guy, cant get it, anyone help??.)

2.) Cunti (Though his stock is rising)/Sweatt/Hammil/ Craig Smith (given i dont know much about any of the forwards, any help again guys??)

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01-19-2007, 05:11 PM
  #45
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The last time we had two 1st rounders we took a prospect out of need (Dubnyk), and then a homerun (Schremp). I imagine we'll do the same...Right now our needs are a top pairing defenseman/puck moving d-man, and an insurance plan in goal.

Take the best defenseman available, and then go for a guy like Cherapanov if available.

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01-19-2007, 05:53 PM
  #46
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Well, thats certainly an idea I haven't entertained, and while the benefits are obvious, im not sure it quantity > quality in this case. Sure you could trade down for another chance to pick, but you could also miss out on talent you could have nabbed (Heh, the jury, ie: us, are still out on this, but Parise vs MAP and JFJ. They're young and can still turn the trade in our favor, but currently, NJs won).
The problem with that comparison is exactly who we selected: MAP and JFJ. Lowe went with two hard-working but not gangbuster-skilled forwards. Now, obviously hindsight is 20/20, but had he used those picks on then-riskier choices like Patrice Bergeron or Shea Weber, we'd be laughing.

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01-19-2007, 06:13 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
It appears the Oilers will have a mid-first and late-first round pick in this year's draft. So what should the Oilers be looking for? I realize the "best player available" theory is generally practiced by the Oilers, but they have certainly picked for their needs aswell (Dubnyk comes to mind).

So what's the most pressing need? A top end offensive centerman is tops on my list. In which case Gagner, VanReimamfafswhatever and Esposito would be real steals at 15th or later. I also think another ultra-skilled winger with some size and power forward potential would be a great addition. A future pp QB would also be high on the list. Further down the list, but not out of the picture would be goaltending.

What do you think is the most pressing organisational need?
Teams don't draft by organizational need because by the time that player is ready the organizational needs will have changed. Teams will pick best player available at almost all times, they may go out of the box later in the rounds a little.

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01-19-2007, 06:18 PM
  #48
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Teams don't draft by organizational need because by the time that player is ready the organizational needs will have changed. Teams will pick best player available at almost all times, they may go out of the box later in the rounds a little.
Which is why the Oilers took Dubnyk at 14th and refused to draft Parise?

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01-19-2007, 06:19 PM
  #49
hfboardsuser
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All I can say is this: if the Oilers don't increase their presence and lower their inhibitions when it comes to lower level leagues (NAHL, Jr. A) and Europe (Allsvenskan/Division 1, RSL/RSL-2/RSL-3) the chances we hit a homerun in the late rounds are remote. The inhibition factor has already been addressed so far as the CHL is concerned, but there's a long way to go yet.

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01-19-2007, 06:33 PM
  #50
Hemsky4PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Teams don't draft by organizational need because by the time that player is ready the organizational needs will have changed. Teams will pick best player available at almost all times, they may go out of the box later in the rounds a little.
That's a good point, but not universally true. I'm sure you'll be seeing the Nashville Predators looking at goaltending and forwards this summer. With Weber, Hamhuis, Zidlicky, Parent, Suter and Franson in their midst (all for 4 years minimum) they can afford to fill a different organizational need. Beyond Radulov they have no top end offensive prospects.

I guess what I'm saying is organizational need isn't just a year by year thing, but also involves where you project your needs in coming years to be. If you think you'll need strong forwards in 3 years, you draft them, and so on.

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