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What do the Oilers need in the 2007 draft?

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Old
01-20-2007, 12:39 PM
  #76
rec28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seachd View Post
But what's the consensus? Do you mean Pierre McGuire?
Yes, you got me. I meant Pierre McGuire...

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01-20-2007, 12:42 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by rec28 View Post
Yes, you got me. I meant Pierre McGuire...
Ok then. I wasn't sure, because even during the draft, where's the consensus? There isn't any, so I didn't know what you meant.

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01-20-2007, 12:51 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Seachd View Post
Ok then. I wasn't sure, because even during the draft, where's the consensus? There isn't any, so I didn't know what you meant.
I was being sarcastic, and I think you know that, but I thought I'd spell it out just in case. For the first 2 rounds or so, there's not a significant degree of deviation between the various scouting lists that precede every draft. I think that's a reasonable definition of consensus. At any rate, to go back to my original point, the Oilers should practice BPA since their record of ignoring "consensus" BPAs and drafting either by need or by their own scouting has been unimpressive, to say the least. If they can't get the job done on their own, maybe they should just leave it up to the folks at Central Scouting...

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01-20-2007, 01:02 PM
  #79
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But where have they really gone off the board apart from Niinimaki? Maybe they took Dubnyk and Pouliot 5 picks hgher then where most thought they would go but thats far from deviating from consensus. Cogliano and Schremp were both expected to be gone by our picks in their draft years (I remember nearly doing a backflip when we drafted Robbie 25th), so we didn't really swing for the fences there either.

And before reading Mr. Buggs prognosis (BTW That was great, thanks for posting), I completely forgot about Sexsmith, I would love for the Oilers to get this guy. So add him to my list of Sutter, Hickey, and Aliu.

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01-20-2007, 01:33 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by rec28 View Post
For the first 2 rounds or so, there's not a significant degree of deviation between the various scouting lists that precede every draft.
That's where I disagree. There's a HUGE amont of deviation, and even more so when you get into the minds of GMs, as we see every year.

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01-20-2007, 02:46 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by rec28 View Post
And thank you for the attitude - it was completely necessary. At any rate, you miss the point completely. My comment was in regard to the Oilers' penchant for gambling with their 1st round picks. Every player on your list was drafted in the 3rd round or later. Picks in those rounds are a crap shoot, far moreso than the first 2 rounds. Teams can afford to gamble with mid and late round picks - some will pan out, most won't. I'd be surprised if the Oilers' success rate with mid and late round picks deviates significantly in either direction of the league average. The point here is not mid & late round draft picks - every team has some notable late-round success stories. The point is that the Oilers like to gamble with their top picks. Virtually every year they ignore the consensus, go with their guts and pick way off the map. And virtually every year they are proven wrong.

Incidentally, your list is laughable - of your first 7 players, not only were they not picked by the current scouting staff, the most recently drafted was 14 years ago. Why you would include the final 6 on your list is bewildering to say the least, since not a single one has accomplished anything at the NHL level. Of the remaining six, a whopping 3 were drafted by the current scouting staff - one who has struggled to stick at the NHL level, one who is playing on his 4th team in 6 years, and one who until very recently was considered a bust.

Well played, sir. Well played indeed.


Thanks for coming out...
Well, in that case you might want to try and rephrase your statements a bit better. Your original comment was "You have repeatedly proven that you are simply not clever or savvy enought to find low-cost diamonds in the rough!"
Now, I hardly consider 1st round picks to be low cost. Neither should you be looking for "diamonds in the rough" with your 1st round picks. If you are, then that would be your first mistake in scouting and drafting players. "Diamond in the rough" picks should wait till the later rounds, when you take a chance on a player that has been overlooked and may work out in the long run. That is why I chose a list of players drafted in the later rounds. And you got attitude because of the way you were dismissing the Oiler scouts as not being clever. They're professional scouts, and I'm sure they're quite good at their job. Much better than any of us fans would be.
Frankly, some of your comments are laughable. Of course many of those picks were from many years ago. I was showing the results of Oiler drafting as a whole. Besides, how long have Lowe and co. being drafting? Since the '99 draft I believe? That gives us a whopping 8 drafts to judge from, with only picks from the first 4 drafts just starting to establish themselves in the NHL.

Quote:
Why you would include the final 6 on your list is bewildering to say the least, since not a single one has accomplished anything at the NHL level.
Well, no kidding Einstein. You think that might be because they were only drafted a couple of years ago? I included them because they are all late round picks who I think have a decent to great shot of playing in the NHL.

Anyhow, if you strictly want to talk about 1st round picks, the picks the team has chosen since '99 have been Jani Rita, Alexei Mikhnov, Ales Hemsky, Jesse Niinimaki, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Devan Dubnyk, Rob Schremp and Andrew Cogliano. You'd be hard pressed to argue how, with the exceptions of Mikhnov and Niinimaki, Oiler scouts have "virtually every year ignore[ed] the consensus" and have "go[ne] with their guts and pick way off the map". Rita was pretty much taken where he was ranked. Same with Hemsky, Pouliot, Dubnyk, Schremp and Cogliano. Obviously there's a little give and take there. Dubnyk was rated by many as the 2nd best goalie available, but we took him over Schwarz. Not a huge deviation, and both were taken about where a team wanting a goalie were expected to pick them.
Mikhnov and Niinimaki were both home-run swings, and both didn't turn out as hoped. But the rest of that group seems to be turning out pretty well. Of course, we still don't know how some of them might develop since most of them, with the exception of Hemsky, are still very young and haven't made it to to NHL yet. So, your comment about our picks having proven the scouts wrong virtually every year is quite wrong. Finally, I challenge you to find a team who in the past few years has drafted significantly better than the Oilers having to pick from a similar draft position.

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Old
01-20-2007, 03:18 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Depends who you talk to. Stich obviously has a lot of talent, but he just can't get anything going. I have him at about the same level as Ellerby or Ruth, but with both of them having impressive tournaments and seasons all around, someone has to be knocked, and Stich is unfrtounately that guy in my books. The '07 second round is going to be loaded with underperforming talent. There's going to be a star player or two or three that fall.
Ah ok thanks Mr Bugg. A Few Questions for ya,:

A comparison to a current player??

Worth a second round draft pick??

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01-20-2007, 03:57 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
Ah ok thanks Mr Bugg. A Few Questions for ya,:

A comparison to a current player??

Worth a second round draft pick??
Absolutely worth a second rounder- he'll be gone by pick 35 at the latest, if not 20th. He's a less confident, less developed Laddy Smid.

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01-20-2007, 04:00 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Absolutely worth a second rounder- he'll be gone by pick 35 at the latest, if not 20th. He's a less confident, less developed Laddy Smid.
Since you bring it up Mr Bugg. I am big on Smid (was before he can and still I am now) and a lot of posters on here and the Oil Blogs seem to think he is garbage now and will not turn into that much. I really respect your talent evaluation on young players. So what is your view of Smid's current level of development and where do you see him topping out at?

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01-20-2007, 06:36 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
Since you bring it up Mr Bugg. I am big on Smid (was before he can and still I am now) and a lot of posters on here and the Oil Blogs seem to think he is garbage now and will not turn into that much. I really respect your talent evaluation on young players. So what is your view of Smid's current level of development and where do you see him topping out at?
To be fair, most the bloggers I've read say that he sucks THIS season, and that he shouldn't be in the NHL. Which has been the case in a few games.

I think he's just been used the wrong way, remember that game against (?) Anaheim (?) where he played 30 minutes? I was LIVID, its like Mactavish dropped him in the ocean with an anvil strapped to his chest and told him to swim back to shore. 20-year-olds shouldn't be playing this much (Unless they got names like Sidney, Alexander, or Evgeni).

I ain't Mr. Bugg, but I see a very talented player whose in over his head. As his bottom end, I can see him becoming a Toni Lydman type (which is good, Toni is extremely underrated), and for his top end potential (very BEST Case scenario) a Teppo Numminen type. Like both these players he won't get the respect he deserves because he doesn't do anything to stand out but plays the game effectively and intelligently. His smarts, skating, and puck control should keep him in a good teams top 4 well into the late stages of his career.

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01-20-2007, 07:51 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Absolutely worth a second rounder- he'll be gone by pick 35 at the latest, if not 20th. He's a less confident, less developed Laddy Smid.

Thank you

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01-20-2007, 11:19 PM
  #87
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The Oilers lousy drafting set the team back at least 5-10 years. The last 13 years b4 last year were the dark ages.

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01-21-2007, 04:47 AM
  #88
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Generally it's better to ask for the shortest response for the same answer.

Here:

What don't the Oilers need in the 2007 draft?

Aside from Roloson, who's done in a few years, we have NO goaltending. So we need something here, or the infamous goaltending woes of Edmonton will return (e.g. Salo, Conkannen)

D definitely needs some major help. We lack both a #1 & #2 d-man, and we also lack any substantial depth (our #5 and #6 are questionable)

Offence lacks a true sniper. We need someone that Hemmer can set up.

Oh Oh... and we also need a tough guy. Dropping Laraque has made it so we no longer have an intimidating force. Like it or not we need someone like him - this is not to say we should've signed him for the coin he wanted (although I don't recall it being too bad).

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Old
01-21-2007, 05:06 AM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
I realize the "best player available" theory is generally practiced by the Oilers...
There is the problem. They draft generally for needs.
MAP, Dubnyk for example.
But I think you have ALWAYS to go for the best player available.
I rememver when Lowe said in a draft that was full of talent he wanted to go after big strong players, because we don't have much of them in the system...how stupid

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01-21-2007, 02:38 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
Since you bring it up Mr Bugg. I am big on Smid (was before he can and still I am now) and a lot of posters on here and the Oil Blogs seem to think he is garbage now and will not turn into that much. I really respect your talent evaluation on young players. So what is your view of Smid's current level of development and where do you see him topping out at?
While Sethis postures he's not me, I'd be tempted to say we're more alike than he thinks.

The Lydman/Numminen comparison is more than apt, although I feel he's more Toni than Teppo. You want to know how you can tell that Smid is going to be okay? Just look at what he does when he has the puck. It takes years for blueliners to become as confident with the biscuit as Smid is right now. He also makes great decisions with it under pressure. If I were to be asked what two qualities I would most want to see in a young defenseman, puck control and poise would be at the top of my list. It just so happens Laddy has all those other qualities you'd love to see in a defenseman- speed, a big point shot and good size.

There are prospects every year that makes me go 'Darn, why didn't we draft him?'. For the first time in a great many years, I don't have to say that.

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Old
01-27-2007, 11:29 AM
  #91
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If we decide to keep that lower round pick, we might be able to snag one of the guys profiled in
the third and final installment of my top 30.

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Old
01-27-2007, 12:18 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
If we decide to keep that lower round pick, we might be able to snag one of the guys profiled in
the third and final installment of my top 30.
Thanks Mr. Bugg

Well after reading that, i still think we try go for Petrecki and someone like Sweatt and/or Cunti. We'll have to trade up, but i think it would be worth it..


Last edited by Oilbleeder: 01-27-2007 at 12:27 PM.
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Old
01-27-2007, 12:31 PM
  #93
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No defenceman contribute before they are 25 huh? How about Wredden, Philips, Sourray, Pitakanen, Pronger, these guys all sucked right out of the gate didn't they. Marc Staal also comes to mind as been a recent guy who at 20 is nowhere close to cracking the line up...COME ON. We see who is going to go where the night before and if we can't get the best dman available in the draft we package the ducks first round and our 2nd rounder to move up, that way we have two draft picks in the top ten. I personally vote for a top centerman to ensure our future at that position. Brodziak isn't getting called up any time soon, Map and Schremp don't look like they are ready either. I say this cause if we miss the playoffs Horc should be traded!

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Old
01-27-2007, 12:35 PM
  #94
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Whe need Alexei Cherepanov who can become the first oiler in about 10 years to score 50 goals and is a guy you can build a team around.

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