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GDT: 2/8/07 Deforestation - Panthers VS. Wild

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02-08-2007, 08:18 AM
  #1
Panthers Rock
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GDT: 2/8/07 Deforestation - Panthers VS. Wild

Tonight, your Florida Panthers take on the Minnesota Wild! Game time at 8:00 live from Xcel Energy Center!

VS

Standings:

Team G W L OTL Pts Standings GF GA Home/Road
Florida 55 20 24 11 51 5th, Southeast 157 181 6-14-8 Road
Minnesota 55 29 22 4 62 3rd, Northwest 153 141 18-5-3 Home 14-12-3 Home

Injuries:

Minnesota: Brian Rolston(sick - day to day), Kurtis Foster(knee), and Manny Fernandez(knee)
Florida: Todd Bertuzzi(back - early to mid February), Branislav Mezei(shoulder - out for the season), Jozef Stumpel(upper body - questionable), and Juraj Kolnik(mouth - questionable)

Expected Starting Goaltenders:


Minnesota: Niklas Backstrom GP 18, W 7, L 6, OT/SOL 3, GAA 2.07, SV% .928, SO 2

VS.


Florida: Ed Belfour GP 34, W 13, L 11, OT/SOL 6, GAA 2.78, SV% .898, SO 0

Team Leaders:

Minnesota:
Goals Brian Rolston 25
Assists Pierre-Marc Bouchard 28
Points Brian Rolston 46
Plus/Minus Pierre-Marc Bouchard 10
PP Goals Brian Rolston 11
Wins Manny Fernandez 22
GAA Niklas Backstrom 2.07
Save PCT Niklas Backstrom .928

Florida:
Goals Olli Jokinen 23
Assists Olli Jokinen 32
Points Olli Jokinen 55
Plus/Minus Jay Bouwmeester 9
PP Goals Olli Jokinen 7
Wins Ed Belfour 13
GAA Ed Belfour 2.78
Save PCT Ed Belfour .898

Special Teams:

Minnesota: PP Ranked 22nd, 16.2% PK Ranked 6th, 84.7%
Florida: PP Ranked 8th, 18.9% PK Ranked 15th, 82.7%

Current Eastern Conference Standings:

Team GR PTS
1. Buffalo * 26 78
2. New Jersey * 28 72
3. Atlanta * 26 67
4. Montreal 27 64
5. Pittsburgh 29 63
6. Ottawa 27 63
7. Tampa Bay 27 62
8. Carolina 26 61
9. Toronto 28 60
10. NY Islanders 28 59
11. NY Rangers 28 55
12. Boston 30 52
13. Washington 27 52
14. Florida 27 51
15. Philadelphia 29 33
* = Division Leaders

The Panthers (20-24-11) also blew a lead and lost on the road Tuesday. Florida was up 4-2 after two periods at Colorado but allowed the final three goals, including Joe Sakic's score 25 seconds into overtime, after Paul Stastny got the equalizer for the Avalanche on a power play with just 37 seconds left in regulation.

Statsny's goal came on Colorado's seventh power-play opportunity and helped make Florida's Ed Belfour the hard-luck loser. The veteran stopped 36 shots.

"Eddie gave us a chance," said Panthers center Chris Gratton, who had a goal and two assists. "He made the big saves, but you can't expect him to do it when you are a man or two men short."

Florida gave up two power-play goals against the Avs and has allowed at least one in each of its last four games, surrendering six in 25 chances in that span.

Belfour is 4-1-0 with a tie and a 2.41 GAA in six starts against Minnesota, while backup Alex Auld is 4-0-1 with a 1.18 GAA in five starts against the Wild.

Auld, though, was pulled after allowing four goals on 17 shots in a 7-0 home loss to Los Angeles on Saturday.

Florida's loss to Colorado dropped it to 6-14-8 away from home. The Panthers have the fewest road wins in the NHL.

The Panthers' Olli Jokinen ended a season-high six-game goal drought Tuesday, but the center has had problems on the road this season. He has six goals and 14 assists in 28 road games, compared to 17 goals and 18 assists in 27 home contests.

Minnesota hopes Brian Rolston, the team leader with 25 goals and 46 points, can return Thursday from a one-game absence due to stomach flu.

The Wild have won four straight meetings with the Panthers and lead the series 4-1-0 with one tie. The teams have not met since Oct. 24, 2003.

Yahoo! Sports Preview

Stumpel and Kolnik are questionable, there will be one, maybe 2 forward callups. Belfour will start again.

Injuries Could Force Scramble For Callups


Extra Time Is Hard For Panthers

Inability To Get Close Is 'Getting Old'

George Richards' Blog

Red Hot Cat Of The Night: Jozef Stumpel has picked up 13 points in his last 10 games.

PR's Totally Unsponsored Keys To The Game:
1. Even without Fernandez the goaltending in Minnesota is formidable. A lot of good focused shots will be needed.
2. 60 minutes, no letting go of the game, no late penalties, etc.
3. Avoid overtime at all cost. Minnesota is the best shootout team in the NHL and the Panthers are the worst.




LET'S GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!!!!

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Last edited by Panthers Rock: 02-08-2007 at 05:04 PM.
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02-08-2007, 08:20 AM
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Normally i would be excited for a game as i am every night, but after constant late losses and especially the game at Colorado, i am not going to get worked up at this game. Of course i will watch it, but until we go on 6 or more game win streak, i aint getting hyped up anymore.

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02-08-2007, 08:23 AM
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every quickly! predict a panthers loss! we might win!!!

4-2 wild we can score against the west (cept l.a.) but we cant beat the west. imbarrassing what will we be the first team in nhl history to lose all overtime games AND lose all games against the opposing conference? we are going down in the books like our president is =\ baaaad

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02-08-2007, 08:24 AM
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p.s. Auld shouldnt start another game for the rest of the season.

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02-08-2007, 08:35 AM
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Reverse pyschology, lets give it a try. Wild win 5-2.

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02-08-2007, 08:47 AM
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*sigh*

We lose this game. Wild 10-0.

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02-08-2007, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PANTHERS OWN YOU View Post
p.s. Auld shouldnt start another game for the rest of the season.
After we trade Belfour (and we should trade Belfour), Auld should get ALL the starts.

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02-08-2007, 09:36 AM
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Disaster Prediction:
The Wild take the ice, crowd cheering...Panthers are nowhere to be seen. After a long wait, the crowd dies down and there's just silence.

Nothing...everyone starts looking at each other, wondering what's going on.

Suddenly a noise is heard from somewhere near the visiting team's lockerroom. It grows and grows, and finally the Panthers all arrive on the ice at once in a twisted, hooting, howling swarm of enraged players...they engulf the Wild players and leave them in a bloody mess. They chase down the referees and leave them all cowering locked into the penalty boxes, and then as suddenly as they arrived, they disappear through the zamboni exit and are gone. The stunned crowd starts twittering with the shock of what just occurred when suddenly someone points with shock and horror at the Wild net. "LOOK!" The voice cries...there, in the net, is a lone piece of circular black rubber...a puck. "The Panthers scored - they won!"

Wait, they won!?! How the hell did that happen? That doesn't happen in disaster predictions! What a disaster!

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02-08-2007, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angry_treefrog View Post
After we trade Belfour (and we should trade Belfour), Auld should get ALL the starts.
I agree 100%. Great idea.

My prediction for the game: 4-3 OT or SO loss.

BTW, some nerdy analysis here. At the current pace we'll play 16 OT games this season, which will all probably be losses. Winning half of them is 8 points we could have had. In addition, assuming we also won half of our 1-goal games (regulation) instead of the 30% pace we're on, would be another 8 points or so. We'd be in the playoffs. Of course, the fact is these are exactly the types of games a team must win to be successful. This team just can't win must-win games, even when up by 3 in the 3rd.

How bad is our current OT/SO record of 11 losses in a row? Assuming we have a 50% chance of winning each OT/SO (which we obviously don't but humor me), the probability that we'd have 11 losses is (0.5)^11 = 0.05%.

Another way to look at it: If the outcome "11 OT losses in a row" were 50% likely, what was our chance of winning any of the 11 OT games? 6%, because (0.94)^11 = 50%.

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02-08-2007, 10:05 AM
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Give Auld the start. It's not like it matters anymore.

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02-08-2007, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWGoon View Post
I agree 100%. Great idea.

My prediction for the game: 4-3 OT or SO loss.

BTW, some nerdy analysis here. At the current pace we'll play 16 OT games this season, which will all probably be losses. Winning half of them is 8 points we could have had. In addition, assuming we also won half of our 1-goal games (regulation) instead of the 30% pace we're on, would be another 8 points or so. We'd be in the playoffs. Of course, the fact is these are exactly the types of games a team must win to be successful. This team just can't win must-win games, even when up by 3 in the 3rd.

How bad is our current OT/SO record of 11 losses in a row? Assuming we have a 50% chance of winning each OT/SO (which we obviously don't but humor me), the probability that we'd have 11 losses is (0.5)^11 = 0.05%.

Another way to look at it: If the outcome "11 OT losses in a row" were 50% likely, what was our chance of winning any of the 11 OT games? 6%, because (0.94)^11 = 50%.
Your statistics are always insightful (and a bit depressing) KW.

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02-08-2007, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by angry_treefrog View Post
Your statistics are always insightful (and a bit depressing) KW.
Thanks. And on being depressed...I've decided that my team glass is definitely way less than half full. Something like 6% full sounds about right.

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02-08-2007, 11:22 AM
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I guarantee, if Auld does start, we all obviously expect a loss. I dont know why i have a feeling if Auld does start, this will be a game he surprises everyone and throws in a good game and gets a win. Dont ask me why, i just know this will happen.

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02-08-2007, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by ThePanthemarsVolta View Post
Give Auld the start. It's not like it matters anymore.
Not a bad idea, after the trade deadline, echoing ATF.

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02-08-2007, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Winger Derek Boogaard will be in the lineup on today when Minnesota plays Florida.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=10460&hubname=

Ah hehe, eh. (nervous laugh) Crap. Well who wants to get beaten badly in a fight tonight?

Also everyone say hi to Mike Russo. The guy who ripped the Panthers for years in his column in the Sentinel. He and Rimer can stay out west for all I care

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02-08-2007, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panthers Rock View Post
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=10460&hubname=

Ah hehe, eh. (nervous laugh) Crap. Well who wants to get beaten badly in a fight tonight?
Anyone on our team feel like ending their season early tonight?

Quote:
Also everyone say hi to Mike Russo. The guy who ripped the Panthers for years in his column in the Sentinel. He and Rimer can stay out west for all I care
ITA!

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02-08-2007, 12:19 PM
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7-0 loss with Auld in goal
2-0 loss without Auld in goal

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02-08-2007, 12:48 PM
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We might as well play Auld and see if he can get out of this slump. Belfour has been strong and is likely trade bait given how many teams could use his experience as a backup for a playoff run.

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02-08-2007, 12:54 PM
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7-0 loss with Auld in goal
2-0 loss without Auld in goal
We wont get shutout. That i can guarantee.

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02-08-2007, 12:56 PM
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Well I don't think he's playing Belfour just to have a shot at winning (and also because Belfour does deserve to play, he's been fairly solid despite defensive lapses and unnecessary PK's). Moreso I'm sure he wants to show off Belfour for other teams interested in a goalie and wanting to see that he's still worth it.

I'm sure Belfour gets traded by the deadline. And Auld will have tons of games to play for the rest of the year when it no longer matters. At least then, without pressure, we can see if he's really ready for primetime, which he sure as hell isn't now.

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02-08-2007, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWGoon View Post

How bad is our current OT/SO record of 11 losses in a row? Assuming we have a 50% chance of winning each OT/SO (which we obviously don't but humor me), the probability that we'd have 11 losses is (0.5)^11 = 0.05%.
I don't know about that. You can't really assume that the team has a 50% chance of winning each game that goes to OT/SO. Yes, there are only two teams competing, but you have to take other things into consideration such as history, etc. For example, if tonights game goes to OT, I would say the Panthers have a 100% chance of losing based on their history this season. One can't assume that their chances are 50/50 because they are never equal. Therefore, your statistics are flawed, but I admire the effort.

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02-08-2007, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johano90 View Post
I don't know about that. You can't really assume that the team has a 50% chance of winning each game that goes to OT/SO. Yes, there are only two teams competing, but you have to take other things into consideration such as history, etc. For example, if tonights game goes to OT, I would say the Panthers have a 100% chance of losing based on their history this season. One can't assume that their chances are 50/50 because they are never equal. Therefore, your statistics are flawed, but I admire the effort.
Yah like, how many times have we been shorthanded GOING into OT, or get called for something while in OT.

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02-08-2007, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by johano90 View Post
I don't know about that. You can't really assume that the team has a 50% chance of winning each game that goes to OT/SO. Yes, there are only two teams competing, but you have to take other things into consideration such as history, etc. For example, if tonights game goes to OT, I would say the Panthers have a 100% chance of losing based on their history this season. One can't assume that their chances are 50/50 because they are never equal. Therefore, your statistics are flawed, but I admire the effort.
You are missing KW's point. His point is that the team SHOULD win about 50%. They win 0%. This indicates a problem that goes beyond talent. It's a heart/mental issue. His statistics are not flawed.

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02-08-2007, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angry_treefrog View Post
You are missing KW's point. His point is that the team SHOULD win about 50%. They win 0%. This indicates a problem that goes beyond talent. It's a heart/mental issue. His statistics are not flawed.
Basically the team loses the desire to win in OT, feeling they are defeated and/or defeat themselves especially with penalties and sitting back.

If the team does try hard in the OT, pumped up by the game itself (let's say the Vancouver game which had much emotion), then they lack the talent to perform in the shootout.

Thus they are left with a pathetic extra sessions record. With each loss, the mentality that they cannot overcome this grows and they let it get to them, whether they think it does or not. I am hoping to see some growth from this club once the pressure is officially off. In our minds they are done but you know they wouldn't admit to giving up so soon.

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02-08-2007, 04:16 PM
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This is the GDT I posted on Wild.com:

Quote:
(20-24-11, 14th Eastern Conference) @ (29-22-4, 8th Western Conference)

Point Streaks:
Marian Gaborik: 4-games (3g, 3a)
Pavol Demitra: 4-games (2g, 4a)

Team Records:
MIN is 16-6-2 when scoring first; 13-16-2 otherwise.
FLA is 13-6-3 when scoring first; 7-18-8 otherwise.
MIN is 11-3-1 when leading one; 8-12-1 when trailing; 10-7-2 when tied.
FLA is 11-2-3 when leading after one; 2-14-5 when trailing; 7-8-3 when tied.
MIN is 14-1-0 when leading after two; 4-15-2 when trailing; 11-6-2 when tied.
FLA is 15-3-2 when leading after two; 1-18-3 when trailing; 4-3-6 when tied.
MIN is 5-0-0 in overtime this season; 9-0-4 in the shootout.
FLA is 0-0-5 in overtime this season; 0-0-6 in the shootout.
MIN is 10-0-0 when Gaborik scores a goal.
MIN is 12-0-0 when Rolston has a multiple-point game.
MIN is 12-1-0 when Bouchard has a multiple-point game.
MIN is 4-0-0 when Whitey has a multiple-point game.
MIN is 4-0-0 when Foster has a multiple-point game.
MIN is 3-0-0 when Radivojevic has a multiple-point game.
FLA is 7-0-1 when Rostislav Olesz scores a goal.
MIN is 4-1-1 all-time against FLA.
MIN is 7-2-0 on Thursdays this season.
FLA is 7-5-1 on Thursdays this season.
Minnesota is 16-0-0 when scoring 4+ goals this season: 13-22-4 otherwise.
FLA is 8-0-0 when scoring 5+ goals this season; 12-24-11 otherwise.


Upcoming Milestones:
Marian Gaborik is 4-points away from 300-points in his career.
Chris Gratton is 1-goal away from 200-goals in his career.
With his next shutout, Ed Belfour will tie Tony Esposito for eighth on the All-time shutout list with 76 career shutouts.

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