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Push to the Playoffs: 95 points

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02-09-2007, 11:30 AM
  #1
Senor Catface
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Push to the Playoffs: 95 points

Well, I'll post this again.

This is a link to a blog that details what records each team needs to get 95 points, the basic number of points a team needs to make the playoffs. It's an interesting look for sure.

http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2007/02/p...s-or-bust.html

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Old
02-09-2007, 12:05 PM
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dynastydays
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Its been discussed a bunch in other threads, but a sobering link nonetheless.

its sexy to say we only need to make up 8 points on Minnesota... but reality says if they maintain their season .571 winning percentage the rest of the way, they end up with 94 points.

To beat that we need 95 points, which comes to a .696 winning percentage. Horrendously above our seasons winning percentage.

We need to sweep our 5 games with Minny pretty much to have a chance at controlling our own fate. Otherwise we are at Minny's mercy to somehow slump just when they are getting healthy again.
I know Manny was hurt, but their backup has been outstanding.

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Old
02-09-2007, 12:30 PM
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IBleedOil247
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Things are not looking to bright if you put it in that perspective

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Old
02-09-2007, 12:31 PM
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BleedingOil
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We have to beat Minny each time we play them and almost all the other division games.

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02-09-2007, 02:47 PM
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oilerfan18
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Don't forget that we'd have to beat Minny in REGULATION! Beating them in OT/Shootout does us no good.

I hate to say it but our chances of making the playoffs are slim and none....this sucks.

Go Oil!


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Old
02-09-2007, 03:02 PM
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Digger12
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This upcoming 7 game road trip will be the make or break, going 3-4 or even 4-3 won't get the Oilers that much closer. IMO they need at least 10 points out of 14 on that trip to avoid being a seller at the end of the month.

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Old
02-09-2007, 03:21 PM
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tamon77
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Based on the inconsistency this year I'm not too optimistic. I just hope what trades are made don't hurt us for next year!

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Old
02-09-2007, 03:50 PM
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Bergeron47
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I'm cheering for LA to do this

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Old
02-09-2007, 10:20 PM
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I know it sounds mean

but I sort of like the fact the Flyers have been somewhat officially knocked out.

I was never a fan of Bobby Clarke and I am somewhat bemused by the fact that even if the flyers win the rest of their games--their max points would be 90.

I think their magic number is 15 to be eliminated from the playoffs--so a combination of 15 wins by say TB and 15 loses by philly-they would be out... so using the last 10 games as an basis

TB is 8-2 while philly is 2-4-4--

if they fallow that pattern for the next ten games--that would make the flyers magic number eitehr 4 or 3

Hope Clarke is hiding tight now

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Old
02-09-2007, 10:54 PM
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Senor Catface
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This will be my own little Oilers cheer topic.

18 wins to go!

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Old
02-10-2007, 12:26 AM
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JonQuixote
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dynastydays View Post

To beat that we need 95 points, which comes to a .696 winning percentage. Horrendously above our seasons winning percentage.

.
We're about at 53% of the potential points earned to this point (Minn is about 57%), and to get to that 95 point mark, we'd need to earn about a 68.5% of our remaining points.

I'm maybe splitting hairs. But, really, with 5 games left with Minnesota, that's a playoff series. Beat Minnesota, take 7 points while only giving them 5, and then that's just a game or two to make up on them over the next 22.

It's uphill, but it's doable.

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Old
02-10-2007, 04:46 AM
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Tyrolean
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
We're about at 53% of the potential points earned to this point (Minn is about 57%), and to get to that 95 point mark, we'd need to earn about a 68.5% of our remaining points.

I'm maybe splitting hairs. But, really, with 5 games left with Minnesota, that's a playoff series. Beat Minnesota, take 7 points while only giving them 5, and then that's just a game or two to make up on them over the next 22.

It's uphill, but it's doable.
You're talking about the Oilers who always struggle to make the playoffs. I highly doubt they make it this year.

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Old
02-10-2007, 05:18 AM
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alanschu
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Yes you've made that point quite obvious.

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Old
02-10-2007, 05:37 AM
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vitogor
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The Wild are very good at choking at the worst possible moments, so your season is not lost yet. It makes me very nervous that we have to play you 5 more times.

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Old
02-10-2007, 05:55 AM
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Not happening. This time Lowe waited far too long.

The best thing the Oilers can do now is tank the season and get a top 5 draft pick.

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Old
02-10-2007, 10:41 AM
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Oilerz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Datsun View Post
This will be my own little Oilers cheer topic.

18 wins to go!
Now it's 17!

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Old
02-10-2007, 10:44 AM
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jadeddog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilerz View Post
Now it's 17!
no its still 18.... actually, its 37 points, which means 18 wins and another game going into OT

we need a .685 winning percentage the rest of the way to finish with 95 points.... .685 is sigificantly higher than our winning percentage so far this year which is .527..... things are looking bleak indeed


Last edited by jadeddog: 02-10-2007 at 10:53 AM.
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Old
02-10-2007, 11:04 AM
  #18
Oilbleeder
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one thing:

Looking at the schedule, it seems that the Oilers play the Wild the last two times in the remaining 4 games in april, on the 3rd and the 5th, i know people are saying that we have to win the final 5 games against the Wild, but i believe our fate will be decided by probably 15th of March, (second time we play them that month), I think not only do we have to win the first few of the five times we play them, but also in the majority of the games leading upto that, which incudes teams: BOS, BUF, TOR, OTT, CBJ, DET, PHO, MIN, CAL, TBL, ANA, SJS and LA. We need a massive winning streak...

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Old
02-10-2007, 11:05 AM
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Waterboy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
This upcoming 7 game road trip will be the make or break, going 3-4 or even 4-3 won't get the Oilers that much closer. IMO they need at least 10 points out of 14 on that trip to avoid being a seller at the end of the month.
I agree completely. If we manage a winning record then I think we have a shot at the playoffs, by no means an easy one though.

The problem for making a serious push, is that Lowe needs to make a move for a puck moving, PP quaterback (or someone needs to get hot in a hurry (Hejda has looked close at times but hasn't made the next step or just can't) but can't because A) the players he wants are too expensive or not available yet and B) once again, the Oilers need the most coveted player type in demand at the deadline with very little to offer for it.

I hate to say it but a winning record at the end of this road trip only complicates that. Lowe has to become a buyer, with no post season guarantee and will have to overpay for what he gets.

A losing record means he can offer Sykora and other vets for prospects/picks and begin concentrating on UFA possiblities and resigning Smyth.

OT but relevant in a way. All this talk of trading Smyth while the value is high is rediculous. The idea that we can trade him now and re-sign him in the offseason wont happen. He'll command WAY more than the Oil can afford because come this summer, the Oil will still have to try and sign a #1/2 D man unless Lowe gets lucky.

Sorry if this is off topic or I lost you...i'm only half way into my first cup!

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Old
02-10-2007, 11:17 AM
  #20
Hongolia
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Do you guys remember last year when the Ducks basically were "sellers" during the trade deadline, everybody thought they were going to tank the season yet they still made the playoffs?

Have some faith, even if we do become "sellers," the league is pretty even in that a hot streak could pull us into the playoffs. As people have said before, it will come down to the 5 games against Minny.

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Old
02-10-2007, 11:50 AM
  #21
Walsher
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Won't take 95 - it'll be less. Maybe not much, but less.

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