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In the new CBA, are draft picks as valuable?

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Old
02-12-2007, 03:58 PM
  #1
JD1
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In the new CBA, are draft picks as valuable?

As we approach the deadline and there are likely going to be alot of trades, with this new CBA are draft picks as valuable as they used to be?

In today's world, alot of players are available in their prime as UFAs, unlike never before. What has this done to the value of draft picks?

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02-12-2007, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD1 View Post
As we approach the deadline and there are likely going to be alot of trades, with this new CBA are draft picks as valuable as they used to be?

In today's world, alot of players are available in their prime as UFAs, unlike never before. What has this done to the value of draft picks?
Just as valuable, perhaps even moreso.

For one, a team needs cheap bottom end players more than they have before. With the rules with waivers, it's harder to maintain veterans in those call-up roles. If they're good, they'll get claimed, often with half their salary being subsidized. For that reason, Josh Hennessy becomes a better person to have in that first call-up role than Denis Hamel.

Second, players don't all leave when they hit UFA age. Some do, some don't. It's easy to say that a team can sit back and pick up guys at 27 and not have to draft, but, that doesn't really work out too well. The best players usually stay with their teams, and never hit the open market. If a team suspects they can't keep a player, he'll often be traded before that point. The ones that do come at a heavy premium. Sure, retaining your own UFAs may cost you, but, you're much more likely to get a player at a discount if they're a player you've drafted and developed.

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02-12-2007, 04:17 PM
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Couldn't have said it better myself.

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02-12-2007, 04:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD1 View Post
As we approach the deadline and there are likely going to be alot of trades, with this new CBA are draft picks as valuable as they used to be?

In today's world, alot of players are available in their prime as UFAs, unlike never before. What has this done to the value of draft picks?
Just look at our own roster and you will see how valuable draft picks still are. Where would this team without Emery, Meszaros, Eaves, Vermette, Schubert, or Kelly? Having CHEAP, young talent is a must in a cap world.

Not to mention the ability of converting draft picks into good players through the trade route (Kaigorodov for Comrie).

Draft picks are more important than ever imo, especially if you are blessed with good scouting.

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02-12-2007, 04:23 PM
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Also, the idea is to ice a team that is actually worth more than you're paying them. It is much easier to do this with youth than veterans. Trying to predict which older players are going to be uncharacteristically productive is ... difficult.

Young players, on the other hand, have a good chance to continue their development. If their salary is locked in by the rookie max then you can get a steal that way (see Crosby, S.). And in their RFA years, you generally sign them based on current production. If they continue to improve then you've got a good deal for a year or two or three.

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02-12-2007, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayItAgain View Post
Where would this team without Emery, Meszaros, Eaves, Vermette, Schubert, or Kelly? Having CHEAP, young talent is a must in a cap world.

Not to mention the ability of converting draft picks into good players through the trade route (Kaigorodov for Comrie).
.

Every one of those guys was drafted under the old CBA. I think Emery and Meszaros have alot of upside potential still but I wonder about the others. Have they reached their peak? Will Vermette, Eaves, Shubie or Kelly ever be legitimate 2nd line or better players?

I can't help but think that with teams owning players for such a short period now, that the "home town" discount is going to go to cities that players/families want to live in. Look at what Pronger did to Edmonton. Some guys will sign with Toronto or New York because they like the atmosphere. Look at Brad Stuart, he made it perfectly clear to the Bs that he wanted to be back out west and as a relatively young (and highly sought) player, in another few months he will be in total control of his destiny.

I think it has become easier to ice a competitive team in this CBA with talent coming on the market like never before, and a big factor in a players decision will be what your city offers to him as a player and to his family.

I agree that having young cheap players is very vey important, but I also believe that we are just starting to enter a long stretch of time where player mobility is much higher than it ever historically has been.

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02-12-2007, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD1 View Post
Every one of those guys was drafted under the old CBA. I think Emery and Meszaros have alot of upside potential still but I wonder about the others. Have they reached their peak? Will Vermette, Eaves, Shubie or Kelly ever be legitimate 2nd line or better players?

I can't help but think that with teams owning players for such a short period now, that the "home town" discount is going to go to cities that players/families want to live in. Look at what Pronger did to Edmonton. Some guys will sign with Toronto or New York because they like the atmosphere. Look at Brad Stuart, he made it perfectly clear to the Bs that he wanted to be back out west and as a relatively young (and highly sought) player, in another few months he will be in total control of his destiny.

I think it has become easier to ice a competitive team in this CBA with talent coming on the market like never before, and a big factor in a players decision will be what your city offers to him as a player and to his family.

I agree that having young cheap players is very vey important, but I also believe that we are just starting to enter a long stretch of time where player mobility is much higher than it ever historically has been.

The myth that the players will gravitate towards the big markets is a myth that gets perpetuated by fans of those teams, hoping that it's the pot of gold waiting for them in the CBA. For every player you can name that elected to sign as a UFA in a city, based on their connection to that city (i.e. their hometown) I can probably name you 10 that stayed with the team they were currently with, and often who drafted them, rather than test the open market.

As for your comment about when players like Meszaros, Eaves, etc. were drafted, what possible difference does that make. Why would those players be less effective if they were drafted after 2005? They still represent the cheap, valuable players that a team needs to be able to maintain a deep roster.

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Old
02-12-2007, 06:51 PM
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Draft picks are probably as valuable. But the strategy of building through the draft may be less so.

Of course we still need a steady stream of rookie contracts, or more accurately, minimum contracts. Having a $40 million payroll between 20 players means averaging $2mil per player. This means that to have Spezza next year at $5mil and Heatley at $5.5 mil as they are scheduled to make, we need several players playing for less than a million to make up for it.

This is what makes players like Preissing at $600k such a valuable asset we underrate its value in the Havlat trade. Without players making less than a million that you arent afraid to play against top lines, all your $5million dollar players probably wont be able to get it done.

Of course we want draft picks, but so does everyone now. There is no other teams out there now trading away their draft picks as a strategy to the teams like us that used to live on it. Its not an alternative strategy to win with. Everyone does it now.

Before we had Hossa and Havlat at $2.6 and $1.6 mil on their 4th year, and could trade Yashin at 27 for Chara-Spezza. We could accumulate so much talent, we were actually elite, and could maintain it by always using our assets to get more assets. We could be better than teams with payrolls $20 million higher.

Now players will get their fair value quicker. We should no longer focus on trying to get players to sign cheap so that we can accumulate extra talent over other teams and so have that as an advantage. Its not going to happen enough to be a strategy. We need to focus on building a team with the same amount as talent as anyone else, in that environment, what are our proper choices.

Another thing to remember is that the CBA has not come to the end yet. We havent seen it as it will be for the last 2 years when players can be unrestricted after 7 years. The next couple of years there will be even more movement to come. GMs will probably be judged more now on the year over year handling of movement than the long term building through draft picks I would think.

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Old
02-13-2007, 07:27 AM
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The Lehner
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I also think draft picks are more valuable under the new CBA then the old one. Look at Anaheim - they have players like Getzlaf and Perry making around $700K each who are producing well - having those players contribute while under the rookie salary restrictions allows them to have both Niedermayer and Pronger under contract. If you can draft players who will produce in the NHL during the first 3 years of their professional career (see Eaves and Meszaros), it will make a team much better, hence smart drafting is as valuable as ever in the NHL.

I think the problem with the new CBA is keeping those young players mentioned above beyond their 4th professional season will be more and more difficult - because of arbitration and guaranteed contracts. I think as the salary cap flattens in future years, and teams are constantly pushing the cap (which does serve as a magnet - Mr. Bettman was right about that), you will see more and more RFA's who are released after the arbitration decisions are handed down, and more and more RFA's not being qualified. Teams won't be able to afford their own RFA's because of arbitration. This practice started a bit last year (Dumont, Tanabe)...but will increase significantly in the next few years. So, although I think draft picks are more valuable now, keeping those good draft picks beyond their 4th or 5th year will become increasingly difficult.

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