HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Notices

Edmonton's Powerplay

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-14-2007, 05:31 PM
  #1
Showerhead
Registered User
 
Showerhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,298
vCash: 500
Edmonton's Powerplay

The attached image shows Edmonton's powerplay icetime distribution and scoring rates for the 2006/07 season. I only included players who have played more than 10 minutes of PP time and keep in mind that even this is a low number if you're looking for any sort of mathematical proof. However, once you get up into the hundreds of minutes that most of our regulars receive I think you can expect the numbers to hold at least a reasonable amount of water.

The list is sorted by PP TOI and all rates > 4.0 PPP/hr are bolded.

Two key features to pay attention to:

1) Five out of the six players who receive the most powerplay time on the Oilers are also the top five point producers per hour of powerplay time. The sixth player is Ryan Smyth.

2) No player on the roster outside of these top five has a PPP/hr of greater than 4.00 (which is used by many stat-heads a rough cut-off of powerplay ability). The one and only exception is Marc-Antoine Pouliot whose one point in limited ice time is likely a poor barometer.

This would indicate that the players who deserve powerplay time have indeed received it over the course of the 06/07 season. There are some pathetic scoring rates outside of the top six players (including the surprisingly awful number put up by Torres who has never been good by this metric but has never been quite this bad either).

It's sure easy to see how with injuries to Stoll and Tjarnqvist the coaching staff is at their limit for viable options on the back end. The Petersen experiment looks like a failure by this metric but honestly to actually watch the games (including and especially last night) Toby did a good job of keeping the puck in, walking the line, and distributing the puck on more than one occasion.

Thoughts? Surprises?
Attached Images
File Type: bmp powerplay time.bmp‎ (430.0 KB, 140 views)

Showerhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 05:50 PM
  #2
dawgbone
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,104
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to dawgbone Send a message via MSN to dawgbone
I'm shocked Smyth is doing that poorly...

He's generally been good for 4+ the past few years. I wonder how much of it has to do with him generally being the last forward on his line off?

__________________
TheSpecialist - MacT thinks he was that good of a hockey player when in actuality he was no better then a Louie Debrusk.
dawgbone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 05:55 PM
  #3
PDO
Registered User
 
PDO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,197
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to PDO
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
I'm shocked Smyth is doing that poorly...

He's generally been good for 4+ the past few years. I wonder how much of it has to do with him generally being the last forward on his line off?
Probably not helping. I wouldn't be surprised if it's taking a beating lately as well with the PP scoring very little off of set plays and not exactly getting a lot of point shots through to the net?

I know RiversQ keeps track of PPGD/60 and that Smyth was leading the team in that respect at one point; so there is a bright side for him.

Which number is more painful in that group; Joffrey Lupul, Raffi Torres or Steve Staios?

PDO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:01 PM
  #4
serum114
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,766
vCash: 500
I'm most surprised by Tjarqvist's relative effectiveness... he's not a star back there, but close to 3.0 for a D man is decent. I think his absence is more sorely felt than many beleive...

serum114 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:14 PM
  #5
mvprimate
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 506
vCash: 500
Meh, i could care less. Smyth is creating screens to cause goals. He doesn't need to be tipping in every puck.

mvprimate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:15 PM
  #6
JRock
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Spruce Grove, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 69
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to JRock Send a message via MSN to JRock
....sucks...

JRock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:42 PM
  #7
edmonton_ice
Registered User
 
edmonton_ice's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 930
vCash: 500
What powerplay ?

We need to start declining the powerplay because it's a momentum killer. Toby Petersen is a decent player but he doesn't have a shot like Stoll.

edmonton_ice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:48 PM
  #8
KFO
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: edmonton
Posts: 215
vCash: 500
From recent observations of our powerplay at "work", and i cringe when i say that, i have come to a few conclusions.

Ryan Smyth holds the first unit back.
We all know what hes good at, very good at, but always planting his arse in front of the always allows the team killing the penalty to isolate the puck on one side of the ice, limiting the puck movement to 3 players.

Combine this with how low Ales Hemsky plays down the half wall, and you make a very simple umbrella become a passers nightmare. If i drew this on a blackboard it would make more sense, but Hemsky needs to skoot his arse up about 5 feet towards the blueline when setting up, this would not only shorten the pass to the point, but open up more passing lanes by encouraging the top forward on the other team to cheat on that pass.

This would all be moot if we had a big gap toothed workhorse controling the point on the powerplay. it would allow hemsky to cheat closer to the goal line, and allow smyth to keep himself parked where he likes to be. At the moment tho, i think its obvious somthing has to change.

KFO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 06:58 PM
  #9
oilfan20
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 152
vCash: 500
Last year when Samsonov 1st arrived he played down low, Hemsky played the half wall but like you said he was alittle higher and Smyth in front. The play was down low to Sammy across to Smyth or back to Hemsky. I think they found so much success with Hemsky feeding Bergeron or Stoll that they have lost that down low play. The PP is very predictable. Hemsky is doing what he can though, like the lob into Smyth and let him battle for it. Hitting the net would also be a nice start.

oilfan20 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 07:11 PM
  #10
Lord Stanley x 5
Registered User
 
Lord Stanley x 5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: TBay
Country: Slovenia
Posts: 216
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to Lord Stanley x 5
Nedved...

even though Nedved hasn't done much ( nearly nothing I guess ) he does have nearly half his pts total off the PP...any reasoning as to why the Oilers don't use him as an option on the point instead of TB - boost Nedved's confidence at the same time. Other than that, Torres and Lupul stand out like sore thumbs - is that more so on the player not taking advantage of the PP time or that they simply aren't being called upon as often ?

Lord Stanley x 5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 07:15 PM
  #11
Oilerdiehard
Registered User
 
Oilerdiehard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Pennsylvania
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,458
vCash: 500
Interesting numbers, a couple surprises on there.

During the Atlanta game the PP actually tried a new creative play. It is pathetic how excited I got about this. It netted them a goal as well. Sykora dropped right down the slot, the pass was faked by Hemmer, everyone fell for it and immediately on Sykora's heels Toby followed him right down the slot, took the shot, everyone was scrambling and Smytty picked up the garbage and put it in.

I was hoping we might see them try that again on at least one of the PP's against the Bruins but nothing. Either it was improvised or Simpson blew his load for trying a new play this season.

When we are that lowly ranked trying new plays and creativity should be a fairly regular event. But in a recent interview with Simpson he said it was all about confidence once they got a couple (like they later did against Atlanta) they would get hot and our PP would be on a role. In other words he seemed to be saying there is no reason to try to change it up because what we are doing is good and will eventually some day start clicking. I guess it creates the new saying don't fix it even if it is broke, because you believe it is not broke despite what stats and standings tell you. *phew*

I must say also with guys like Petersen, Staios etc... on the point, one has to wonder if the first priority of our PP coach is to not get scored against rather than first priority being our PP gets the goal. Just like having a Tarnstrom last year, why give the coaches a quarter back because they will not use him anyway in that role. They drop him down off the point ala Sykora unless there are a lot of injuries.

Oilerdiehard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:21 PM
  #12
dawgbone
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,104
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to dawgbone Send a message via MSN to dawgbone
Quote:
Originally Posted by KFO View Post
From recent observations of our powerplay at "work", and i cringe when i say that, i have come to a few conclusions.

Ryan Smyth holds the first unit back.
We all know what hes good at, very good at, but always planting his arse in front of the always allows the team killing the penalty to isolate the puck on one side of the ice, limiting the puck movement to 3 players.

Combine this with how low Ales Hemsky plays down the half wall, and you make a very simple umbrella become a passers nightmare. If i drew this on a blackboard it would make more sense, but Hemsky needs to skoot his arse up about 5 feet towards the blueline when setting up, this would not only shorten the pass to the point, but open up more passing lanes by encouraging the top forward on the other team to cheat on that pass.

This would all be moot if we had a big gap toothed workhorse controling the point on the powerplay. it would allow hemsky to cheat closer to the goal line, and allow smyth to keep himself parked where he likes to be. At the moment tho, i think its obvious somthing has to change.
The only reason this team ever maintains possession of the puck in the offensive end is because of the abilities of 94. He doesn't just simply stand in front of the net all PP... he goes everywhere and is probably the best player on the team at winning loose pucks on the PP.

dawgbone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:36 PM
  #13
Backhand
Registered User
 
Backhand's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Hockey Heaven
Country: Canada
Posts: 506
vCash: 500
Horcoff, i find him abysmal on the PP. I just don't see where he gets 16 points from.

Backhand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:37 PM
  #14
PDO
Registered User
 
PDO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,197
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to PDO
Quote:
Originally Posted by OF4E View Post
Horcoff, i find him abysmal on the PP. I just don't see where he gets 16 points from.
He wins puck battles and is fantastic at getting the puck back to the point.

He's also one of the only Oilers who shows any creativity on the PP.

PDO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:40 PM
  #15
Backhand
Registered User
 
Backhand's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Hockey Heaven
Country: Canada
Posts: 506
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO View Post
He wins puck battles and is fantastic at getting the puck back to the point.

He's also one of the only Oilers who shows any creativity on the PP.
I have to agree that he gets pucks back to the point well, but i also find that a large portion of the time the puck dies with him. I'll admit hes gotten better in the last month or so, but to be top 5 on our team seems way to high. Hes always been compliment as a good EV guy but not overly imaginative on the PP. This hurts cause i'm a stats junky and the stats are shutting me up....

Backhand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:44 PM
  #16
Cerebral
Registered User
 
Cerebral's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,676
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by OF4E View Post
Horcoff, i find him abysmal on the PP. I just don't see where he gets 16 points from.
I think Horcoff is one of our best players out there on the powerplay (and I've long felt this way as well - I made a thread about this prior to the start of last season). He's great at moving the puck back to the defencemen and he actually gets them the puck in a position to shoot. He can't shoot worth a crap which obviously limits his value but we need to see Horcoff out there more with the man advantage if anything.

__________________
Burn Girl Prom Queen
Cerebral is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 08:50 PM
  #17
PDO
Registered User
 
PDO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,197
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to PDO
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral View Post
I think Horcoff is one of our best players out there on the powerplay (and I've long felt this way as well - I made a thread about this prior to the start of last season). He's great at moving the puck back to the defencemen and he actually gets them the puck in a position to shoot. He can't shoot worth a crap which obviously limits his value but we need to see Horcoff out there more with the man advantage if anything.
Agreed on all points.

I made a mention of this in the Schremp thread, but no one caught it..

What about Hemsky back on the point? His one-timer is actually becoming pretty good, he can clearly see the passing lanes as well as anyone, and Horcoff could play on the half-boards instead of Hemsky.

Throw Smyth in front, Sykora as the low option and Bergeron on the point.

Eh?

PDO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 09:46 PM
  #18
Spawn
Registered User
 
Spawn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 23,123
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO View Post
Agreed on all points.

I made a mention of this in the Schremp thread, but no one caught it..

What about Hemsky back on the point? His one-timer is actually becoming pretty good, he can clearly see the passing lanes as well as anyone, and Horcoff could play on the half-boards instead of Hemsky.

Throw Smyth in front, Sykora as the low option and Bergeron on the point.

Eh?
I like that idea, Hemsky does have a pretty good shot when he wants to use it

Spawn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-14-2007, 09:54 PM
  #19
Cerebral
Registered User
 
Cerebral's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,676
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO View Post
Agreed on all points.

I made a mention of this in the Schremp thread, but no one caught it..

What about Hemsky back on the point? His one-timer is actually becoming pretty good, he can clearly see the passing lanes as well as anyone, and Horcoff could play on the half-boards instead of Hemsky.

Throw Smyth in front, Sykora as the low option and Bergeron on the point.

Eh?
I actually don't mind that idea. If anything, it might get Hemsky to stop moving up and down the boards so much and force him to make more direct plays. Hemsky has a pretty damn good shot and he could likely make some nice back-door passes from the point.

I'm really hoping Schremp will step it up and challenge for a roster spot next year though, he has the skill-set to be very effective from the point position and his ability to move the puck would be very valuable with Hemsky out on the ice as well. Schremp's skating ability will likely always hold him back in terms of 5on5 play but I think he has the skill-set to be a very good powerplay performer.

Cerebral is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-15-2007, 01:17 PM
  #20
Bob Stauffer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 417
vCash: 500
Good work on this.

Is this just 5-on-4, or does it include 5-on-3 stats as well?
Is there anyway to seperate the 5-on-3 numbers?
The guys who play 5-on-3: Hemsky, Smyth, Bergeron, Stoll and Sykora when the Oil are healthy BETTER have a higher ppp/60min quotient.


As for the 5-on-4.
The advantage guys have playing on the first unit is that Hemsky QB's from the half-boards. Of late Horcoff and Nedved have struggled when being the guy that runs the pp from the half-boards on the second unit.

Stauffer

Bob Stauffer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-15-2007, 01:47 PM
  #21
Q038
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Edm
Country: Canada
Posts: 610
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob "Total Hockey" View Post
Good work on this.

Is this just 5-on-4, or does it include 5-on-3 stats as well?
Is there anyway to seperate the 5-on-3 numbers?
The guys who play 5-on-3: Hemsky, Smyth, Bergeron, Stoll and Sykora when the Oil are healthy BETTER have a higher ppp/60min quotient.


As for the 5-on-4.
The advantage guys have playing on the first unit is that Hemsky QB's from the half-boards. Of late Horcoff and Nedved have struggled when being the guy that runs the pp from the half-boards on the second unit.

Stauffer
I see it as a weakness actually.. For now... Even with Hemsky's skill he always balances the line between making a play/opening himself up for a shot and out right handing the puck over.. The Oilers are making it to easy for the oppositions penalty killers to key up on this "QB marked with a big X" .. Coaches have no faith the players can move the puck at will to an open man so the put a ton of pressure on the 1/2 board guy to dangle himself to a lane... We have no one on the team who can control the blueline and demand any respect to ease the pressure... If were going to have a QB per say, he should be lower in corner to draw back the forwards to allow the defence that little extra time to get a shot off or move it back to the QB for feeds to the slot/cross crease or on the goalie for smyth to eat up...

In time Hemsky will earn more respect which will ease the pressure on him as well, but for now, the Oilers PP sucks because they just won't move the puck around fast enough to spread the coverage and one on one pressure...

Q038 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-17-2007, 10:52 AM
  #22
Showerhead
Registered User
 
Showerhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,298
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob "Total Hockey" View Post
Good work on this.

Is this just 5-on-4, or does it include 5-on-3 stats as well?
Is there anyway to seperate the 5-on-3 numbers?
The guys who play 5-on-3: Hemsky, Smyth, Bergeron, Stoll and Sykora when the Oil are healthy BETTER have a higher ppp/60min quotient.
This is a good point - the numbers I gave do not differentiate between types of powerplays. I know some people are pretty adept at using scripts to search NHL.com gamesheets and pull specific events out of them (such as all 5-on-3, 4-on-3, or 5-on-4 goals) but I am not one of those people at this point.

I can't trust my memory on this but I honestly think the Oilers have spent few enough minutes and scored few enough goals for these numbers to maintain significance. That said, you're absolutely right that they're muddied by including all situations.

Quote:
As for the 5-on-4.
The advantage guys have playing on the first unit is that Hemsky QB's from the half-boards. Of late Horcoff and Nedved have struggled when being the guy that runs the pp from the half-boards on the second unit.

Stauffer
This is true - you would have to think that anyone who plays significant minutes with your most efficient powerplay scorer would automatically see their numbers rise. A better mathematician might find a way to show the exact effect but at this point all I can do is trust that the difference between our units is so significant it is probably not the result of just a single player's effectiveness.

Showerhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-17-2007, 02:11 PM
  #23
Jet
Moderator
Chevel-takesadayoff
 
Jet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: New Glasgow
Country: Scotland
Posts: 16,734
vCash: 50
I saw a couple of people suggest Nedved or Hemsky working the point on the PP instead of TS. I think the concern there is both players lack of defensive moxie or execution. I think that Nedved is too slow to put back there.

I think it would help Hemsky's game actually if they worked him at the point at least in practice, and let him skate some D drills. His passing would be nice at the blueline, and if he got his shot through consistently that would be good too. Problem is he likes to mess with the puck too much which is dangerous at the point, and we lose our best PP half board player.

__________________
The farts have just started and thankfully the boyfriend has already headed home. -LadyJet
Jet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-17-2007, 02:15 PM
  #24
oil slick
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 7,356
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by jet228 View Post
I saw a couple of people suggest Nedved or Hemsky working the point on the PP instead of TS. I think the concern there is both players lack of defensive moxie or execution. I think that Nedved is too slow to put back there.

I think it would help Hemsky's game actually if they worked him at the point at least in practice, and let him skate some D drills. His passing would be nice at the blueline, and if he got his shot through consistently that would be good too. Problem is he likes to mess with the puck too much which is dangerous at the point, and we lose our best PP half board player.
But why not Bergeron on the point instead of Peterson. That's the real head scratcher for me.

oil slick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-17-2007, 02:28 PM
  #25
Jet
Moderator
Chevel-takesadayoff
 
Jet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: New Glasgow
Country: Scotland
Posts: 16,734
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick View Post
But why not Bergeron on the point instead of Peterson. That's the real head scratcher for me.
From what I can see its that MAB has NO confidence on the PP right now. He bobbles the puck so much back there, and he can't get his shot through or on the net. I think that other teams are very aware of this and pressure him even more. As good as I think Bergeron could be as a bottom pair PP specialist, I think it's gotta be somewhere else. Fans are fed up with his play and you know what happens in Edmonton when that happens. I think he should be part of a deal to bring Rivet over from Montreal. Obviously with Rivet as an UFA, there would have to be other components in the trade, but Rivet is the guy who's going out of the big 3 D UFA's on thier roster, and he'd fit in nicely with Staios on the Oilers 2nd pair IMO.

Jet is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:19 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.