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"He won't overpay."

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Old
02-21-2007, 02:22 PM
  #1
Slats432
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"He won't overpay."

Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?

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02-21-2007, 02:24 PM
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Hemsky4PM
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Does anyone else just want the 27th to come already? It's getting really dull talking about the same stuff.

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02-21-2007, 02:27 PM
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i think lowe has made the right moves, there is no doubt injuries and lack of achievement by some players has hurt us the most. Too heavy reliance on our defensemen definitely didnt help but I think this summer that might get resolved and within the next 2 years (with experience and development) we may have a bargain priced very effective set of dmen. this team is set to be solid next year in my opinion, I think acquiring 1 or 2 top 4 dmen (1 4sure for the pp) and maybe a move upfront for some more energy and consistency. A new pp plan too.

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02-21-2007, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Does anyone else just want the 27th to come already? It's getting really dull talking about the same stuff.
Much easier to have numerous subjects when the team is winning.....when you are losing, it is "Boy we suck." and "Let's trade the whole team."

Personally, I don't advocate anything I said particularly above. I just think that "overpay" is very subjective. What constitutes an overpay?

A little different from the other rigamarole going around.

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02-21-2007, 02:32 PM
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I would say an overpayment is a deal that winds up hurting the team more than helping it - the subtraction is greater than the addition.

So if Stuart cost Torres and a pick and Sopel cost Lupul and a pick, suddenly we've given up just under 20% of our goals and have a hopefully better defence, but a potentially huge (or exacerbated) 2nd line problem.

And then, if we can't sign both Stuart and Sopel, we've got a blueline problem next year AND a forward problem.

And even making those hypothetical trades, there's just no possible way to *know* we make the 2nd round. Calgary's been playing .500 hockey since they picked up Stuart.

Sometimes you have to sacrifice the long-term for the short-term. But moving guys like Lupul and Torres for defense rentals not only do that (significantly), but they also sacrifice part of the short-term as well. I don't know that those deals make us stronger in the short-term enough to justify the long-term damage.

So for me, that's an overpayment.

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02-21-2007, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gqmixmaster View Post
i think lowe has made the right moves

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02-21-2007, 02:34 PM
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I look at this team and say that a Monkey could run it and have a cup in 5 years. We have the young core + great prospects. We just need to wait. I agree with everything Lowe has done this year.

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02-21-2007, 02:34 PM
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I think, quite frankly, the value of players like Torres and Lupul are a little inflated on these boards. That's to be expected, mind you, but don't read much into what fans think about player value.

Lowe has, I'm sure, several deals on the table. If he wants to, he can add to any one of them, I'm sure, and make a move. We have all heard how teams like Florida may be willing to move a player like Nathan Horton, and it's this type of player I would like to see Lowe 'overpay' for most of all.

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02-21-2007, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?

Your asssuming that Stuart or Sopel would get us in the playoffs. Just as good of chance that they Don't and we lose Torres or Lupul for nothing.

If we trade Lupul or Torres I want a top first round pick under 25 with the same potential comming back.

Like the poster above me said "don't mind overpaying for a player like Horton" and I agree. I don't mind a small overpay if you are getting a great player but I would never overpay for a UFA or a average vet D.

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02-21-2007, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?
Klowe might need to adjust from the money pinching era pre new CBA a little.. Overpayment doesn't always need to be a bad word if the piece is right... personally im not convinced Stuart is worth an over payment of major proportions... besides, Stuart doesn't guarantee any playoff position, not many players would in the situation we are in. we did have Pronger and Spacek last year and we barely made the playoffs.....

Now if Lecavalier was put on the block this summer, id over pay till cows came home...

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Old
02-21-2007, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Much easier to have numerous subjects when the team is winning.....when you are losing, it is "Boy we suck." and "Let's trade the whole team."

Personally, I don't advocate anything I said particularly above. I just think that "overpay" is very subjective. What constitutes an overpay?

A little different from the other rigamarole going around.
I have no idea what the price was, by I would have to assume since there have been few moves of top end dman during the season and in fact few moves at all that the prices are prohibitive

There have numerous articles over the last few days that the prices for EVEN rental players have been too high and unless the prices come down there will be few trades.

Brad Stuart has been the only possible dman that may have helped the Oilers and by the time he was available (Numerous articles a week before he was traded that Boston was trying to sign him) I had to question that that trade would have been the appropriate trade from an Oilers perspective.

Sometimes it is easy to say that Lowe has had all season to get top end dman but a lot harder to pinpoint who was available or if anyone was available.

It's easy from an armchair perspective to say that Lowe should have made that trade but even harder from that same armchair to be able to point out trade possiblities that were available for Lowe and then going to the next step and try to evaluate what it would have cost.

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Old
02-21-2007, 02:50 PM
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I think the general consensus amongst the GM's is that prices are to high for the UFA's available and they are hoping prices come down to remind them they won't get anything this summer for their UFA's. I am not sure Lowe wouldn't pay for a Group 2 or signed player but maybe I am wrong.

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Old
02-21-2007, 03:05 PM
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I think the prices might be a bit more for the Oilers, becasue everyone knows what a big hole we need to fill. What GM would give fair value to another GM who is desperate.

Just like goalies last year. Some of the deals were heard about were ridiculous. It took till the 11th hour for something reasonable.

And now we have 3 road games in 4 nights leading up to the trade deadline. I think other GMs are waiting and hoping Lowe will pull a desperate trade, in which the other team will benefit from our panic stop-gap measure.

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02-21-2007, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Does anyone else just want the 27th to come already? It's getting really dull talking about the same stuff.
It may be dull to you but not to me and others. So if you do not like to read it, do not read it and if this is all you have to contribute why waste your time typing it?


Anyway it is a tough call.

If the problem is a big one (our D corps) that will effect future seasons you have to overpay (forward, picks, prospect) to correct it in the short term, as in the next couple seasons. Or do you go with the youth you have and sit and wait for them to develop and augment them slightly with moves hoping and praying you crawl your way into a playoff spot next season?

As I said it is a tough call, maybe you attempt to do a little of both. Overpay a bit (not enough for the home run guy we need but a solid # 2) and bring along the young guys on D. To me you try and assure a spot next year with a slight overpay unless you truly plan to step up with big money at take a run at the top UFA Ds in the Summer (I have not been following this too close are there even any good ones that look like they will make it to UFA?! Last Summer was probably the best one for a while to pony up for a D man, it would have costs us some good dough but a Willie Mitchell or even a Salei locked up for a few years would look good right now). You run the risk of getting nobody if you wait for UFA though.

To me it looks like if we want to be truly serious about playoffs for next year we will have to overpay at least a little now or in the Summer. Clearly I do not see us making the playoffs so of course I am not in favour of any rentals and have not been since January or so... I want deals/signings to help us next year and beyond.


Last edited by Oilerdiehard: 02-21-2007 at 03:48 PM.
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02-21-2007, 03:29 PM
  #15
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In the strictist terms, I view "overpay" as any deal where the team, over an infinate period of time, makes a deal where the % chances make it look like the team will lose more games then it wins as a result of the deal.

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02-21-2007, 03:29 PM
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Well

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?
Your arguement is spurious because Lowe cant trade Lupal and Torres for a berth in the 3rd round.

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02-21-2007, 03:42 PM
  #17
Slats432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AM View Post
Your arguement is spurious because Lowe cant trade Lupal and Torres for a berth in the 3rd round.
I agree the way I put it might be deceiving.

Here is what we know.

1. What Lowe didn't do will likely cost the Oilers a playoff spot.
2. No deals were to his liking.
3. Any defenseman mentioned in most rumours would likely help the Oilers. (Sopel, Stuart, Souray etc etc)

So my question, regardless of the tangible pieces I have talked about....

What if a GM was in love with Viatcheslav Trukno? Robbie Schremp?

There is no guarantee that any trade would help the Oilers to the playoffs, including adding a superstar like Forsberg or Lidstrom.

What I am asking is if the deal was Torres, Lupul, Schremp and a 1st for Pitkanen and Stefan Rucizka.....is it an overpay if you make the playoffs? Or make it past the first round?

Why do people call Torres and a first for Stuart an overpay, if it gets you to where you want to go?

And the reverse is true of people who suggest it is an overpay. Isn't it a spurious argument since they don't know if the player will help the Oilers win the cup?

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02-21-2007, 03:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?
Overpay is giving up too much for too little. I don't think dealing Lupul or Torres to bring in marginal guys like Stewart or Sopel really make this team a contender. Moreover, a number of Oilers have pretty low value right now, which is another reason why you shouldn't deal them for rentals. Buy low sell high, I think Lowe has a grasp of this fairly simple concept (which is why I think Smyth is gone at the deadline if he hasn't signed an extension).

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Old
02-21-2007, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?
you dot do any of those suggested deals. They are outright brutal...

To the point, Lowe overpays all the time. He overpaid for Pisani. He overpaid for Horcoff. He overpaid for Staios. He overpaid for Moreau... Lowe overpays all the time.

It's a harsh reality. The defensemen you probably want aren't available and haven't been. The ones you can get like don't improve the situation even with Smith, Staios, Bergeron, or Tjarnqvist on the blueline.

Now a good coach could have made things easier on himself by changing the breakout strategy. No one team breaks out like another in the NHL. A good coach could have made lines that made sense or played skill players at times where skill is needed.

Oh, we overpaid for MacTavish too.

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02-21-2007, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
I agree the way I put it might be deceiving.

Here is what we know.

1. What Lowe didn't do will likely cost the Oilers a playoff spot.
2. No deals were to his liking.
3. Any defenseman mentioned in most rumours would likely help the Oilers. (Sopel, Stuart, Souray etc etc)

So my question, regardless of the tangible pieces I have talked about....

What if a GM was in love with Viatcheslav Trukno? Robbie Schremp?

There is no guarantee that any trade would help the Oilers to the playoffs, including adding a superstar like Forsberg or Lidstrom.

What I am asking is if the deal was Torres, Lupul, Schremp and a 1st for Pitkanen and Stefan Rucizka.....is it an overpay if you make the playoffs? Or make it past the first round?

Why do people call Torres and a first for Stuart an overpay, if it gets you to where you want to go?

And the reverse is true of people who suggest it is an overpay. Isn't it a spurious argument since they don't know if the player will help the Oilers win the cup?
I guess the question is where do you want to go?? Make the playoffs at any cost?? Or win the stanley cup?? If we were looking like a contender, or even had the ingredients of a contender then I think lowe would have be willing to deal highly rated prospects to try and win the cup. Nashville giving what they gave for Forsberg was fine for them, but almost any other team it would have been an overpayment.

Dealing a Lupul or Torres for overrated dmen would barely make sense in the short term let alone long term. With Free agency Lowe will have the chance to get a dman or 2.

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02-21-2007, 04:12 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by oilerdynasty View Post
you dot do any of those suggested deals. They are outright brutal...

To the point, Lowe overpays all the time. He overpaid for Pisani. He overpaid for Horcoff. He overpaid for Staios. He overpaid for Moreau... Lowe overpays all the time.

It's a harsh reality. The defensemen you probably want aren't available and haven't been. The ones you can get like don't improve the situation even with Smith, Staios, Bergeron, or Tjarnqvist on the blueline.

Now a good coach could have made things easier on himself by changing the breakout strategy. No one team breaks out like another in the NHL. A good coach could have made lines that made sense or played skill players at times where skill is needed.

Oh, we overpaid for MacTavish too.


Steve Staios (06/07)1.615 (07/08)2.900 (08/09)2.900 (09/10)2.800 (10/11)2.200
Ethan Moreau (06/07)1.026 (07/08)1.750 (08/09)1.750 (09/10)1.750 (10/11)1.750
Shawn Horcoff (06/07)3.600 (07/08)3.600 (08/09)3.600 (09/10)3.600
Fernando Pisani(06/07)2.500 (07/08)2.500 (08/09)2.500 (09/10)2.500 (10/11)2.500

Salary caps most likely up to 50mil next year and in 2 years its going to be? 55?

these contracts will be what then?

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02-21-2007, 04:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerdynasty View Post
you dot do any of those suggested deals. They are outright brutal...

To the point, Lowe overpays all the time. He overpaid for Pisani. He overpaid for Horcoff. He overpaid for Staios. He overpaid for Moreau... Lowe overpays all the time.

It's a harsh reality. The defensemen you probably want aren't available and haven't been. The ones you can get like don't improve the situation even with Smith, Staios, Bergeron, or Tjarnqvist on the blueline.
You'll find it tough to support the fact that Lowe overpaid for any of those players. The players you mentioned all do the heavy lifting for this team, and they do a pretty good job of it.

If you are going to replace them at a cheaper rate, you are going to pay for it in terms of results.

If you want to point out who's overpaid on the Oilers, look no farther than guys like Lupul.

Quote:
Now a good coach could have made things easier on himself by changing the breakout strategy. No one team breaks out like another in the NHL. A good coach could have made lines that made sense or played skill players at times where skill is needed.

Oh, we overpaid for MacTavish too.
Many teams use similar breakouts... and the issue isn't with the Oilers breakout (which is what you do when you have time), the issue is on the forecheck. You don't setup your breakout on the forecheck, and the Oilers have run into trouble this year when other teams pressure them.

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02-21-2007, 04:21 PM
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I think Lowe would overpay for Pitkanen, but not Stuart or Sopel.

You don't give solid assets for short-term assets, as that is a high risk proposition. You could easily end up with no playoff revenue and have given away prime assets.

Lowe is conservative, and that is a good thing. It means we should be reasonably competitive, most years. It doesn't mean we won't make mistakes in player make-up or have holes. Every team has holes. A #1 Dman is a big hole, but didn't everyone think KLowe could trade his way out of it? After the previous season?

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02-21-2007, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerdynasty View Post

To the point, Lowe overpays all the time. He overpaid for Pisani. He overpaid for Horcoff. He overpaid for Staios. He overpaid for Moreau... Lowe overpays all the time.
I don't think that those become overpays until they actually stop us from making a move/signing. Let's say, for instance, that you believe Lowe could have signed Pisani for 0.5 million less then he did. That 0.5 million only becomes an overpayment problem when the Oilers are at their limit and we lose another player for the lack of $500,000 in NHL cap space or in a lower team-defined bunget


In my mind an overpayment is not as simple as games won vs games lost as a result of the move, either. Let's say that Dallas ultimately lost more games then they won over the years that followed the Iginla for Nieuwendyk trade. In my mind there's no way it could be considered an overpayment because it undeniably led to them winning the 16 most important games enroute to the Stanley Cup.

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02-21-2007, 04:26 PM
  #25
Q038
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Edm
Country: Canada
Posts: 610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
If you want to point out who's overpaid on the Oilers, look no farther than guys like Lupul.
Id even argue that Lupul isn't necessarily over paid.... YET .. at 1.5 this season and 16 goals its acceptable concidering he's 22 with upside yet to come?

The next two years the heats on though.. (07/08) 2.535 and (08/09) 2.900

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