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"He won't overpay."

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Old
02-21-2007, 03:27 PM
  #26
gr8haluschak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerdynasty View Post
.

To the point, Lowe overpays all the time. He overpaid for Pisani. He overpaid for Horcoff. He overpaid for Staios. He overpaid for Moreau... Lowe overpays all the time.
Wow that is all I have to say, seriously how about you look at OTHER COMAPRABLES and tell me how he overpaid.

Horcoff - Look at Conroy points per game are almost eqaul, and Hocoff is 7 years younger than him so I would venture to guess the mil diffence is within the ball park of what "market value is" for him. Added to that look at Brendan Morrison now without Naslund and Bertuzzi he has socred few points than Horcoff and is about 400K cheaper but 3 years older.

Staios - What are other d men getiing in the league ? Willie Mitchell is getting 3.5, Warrener is at 2.5, Hamrlik is 3.5, Aucoin 4, Schnieder 3.3 all of whom are comparabe to Staios who is making 1.6 this year and 2.9 next year.

Moreau - now you are just grasping at straws because the only year he makes serious money is 2.75 after that it is 1.75 (which is the same amount of money that Mike Grier makes)

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02-21-2007, 03:29 PM
  #27
Master Lok
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Great thread Mess.

Hmm... the bottom line is that every team wants to win The Cup. If not this year, then in the future. That's the balance. If you make an overpay this year, the belief is that you've increased your chance of winning the Cup this year, at a cost of winning in the future. Unless your future was stockpile of great prospects.

How much increase this year, for how much decrease in the future?

This year - not so much. I agree with Lowe. It makes no sense to overpay for a UFA if there's a good chance of not even making the playoffs. However, if you could get a player who might be around several years (e.g. Pitkanen), then its a balance act of how much increase % in the future, for how much decrease at another position in the future?

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Old
02-21-2007, 03:31 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Many teams use similar breakouts... and the issue isn't with the Oilers breakout (which is what you do when you have time), the issue is on the forecheck. You don't setup your breakout on the forecheck, and the Oilers have run into trouble this year when other teams pressure them.
Don't you think the Oilers are having trouble with both things you describe? They are horrible at moving the puck up ice under heavy pressure, but it's not like they execute the smoothest of breakouts when they have time either.

Even under the forecheck, there should be a system in place, albeit a 'looser' or less-strucured system then an actual breakout. I think one could make a valid criticism of MacTavish for not changing some of his defence-to-offense strategies to better fit the skill set of the players he was working with.

On the other hand, perhaps MacTavish felt there was greater value in getting the younger players familiar with the strategies he wants to use when the Oiler's acquire some more pieces of the puzzle.

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02-21-2007, 03:35 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
Moreau - now you are just grasping at straws because the only year he makes serious money is 2.75 after that it is 1.75 (which is the same amount of money that Mike Grier makes)
even then, its not really his salary, the extra mill was a signing bonus that hits the cap in 07/08

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02-21-2007, 03:38 PM
  #30
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And someone mentions Pitkanen again in the thread, so I figured I would chime in again.

Joni Pitkanen for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round choices.

At the time it would have equated to Jochen Hecht and two 2nd rounders (And that year it would have been JDD and Matt Greene)

Interesting what is too much of an overpay the day of the 2002 draft would be almost a steal today. (Compared to Torres, Schremp and a 1st which I think is what it might cost today.)

Now, that brings me to another interesting point. The time to overpay.

If draft day comes and K-Lowe offers up Matt Greene, JDD and one of our first rounders to be top 5...is that an overpay? Well, that kid could be our Pitkanen.

Maybe Lowe should consider WHEN the right time to overpay is, because if he wanted Phaneuf, he needed to be top 8. If he wanted Pitkanen, he needed to be top 4.

If THE player (And we can almost all agree on draft day that we all wanted Pitkanen and Phaneuf.) rears his head on draft day, it might be our chance to get that high end player he has suggested he can't get because of price.

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02-21-2007, 03:40 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
And someone mentions Pitkanen again in the thread, so I figured I would chime in again.

Joni Pitkanen for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round choices.

At the time it would have equated to Jochen Hecht and two 2nd rounders (And that year it would have been JDD and Matt Greene)

Interesting what is too much of an overpay the day of the 2002 draft would be almost a steal today. (Compared to Torres, Schremp and a 1st which I think is what it might cost today.)

Now, that brings me to another interesting point. The time to overpay.

If draft day comes and K-Lowe offers up Matt Greene, JDD and one of our first rounders to be top 5...is that an overpay? Well, that kid could be our Pitkanen.

Maybe Lowe should consider WHEN the right time to overpay is, because if he wanted Phaneuf, he needed to be top 8. If he wanted Pitkanen, he needed to be top 4.

If THE player (And we can almost all agree on draft day that we all wanted Pitkanen and Phaneuf.) rears his head on draft day, it might be our chance to get that high end player he has suggested he can't get because of price.
I woudn't make a trade to get in the top 5 this year because the consensus is that the player you pick at 15 could be as good as one.

It's a deeper draft with no clear top five.

For a really consensus blue chipper the price is always very high and why you rarely see a trade in the top five from a team not in the top five.

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02-21-2007, 03:45 PM
  #32
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I think the concept of overpayment has to do with how you set yourself up long term. Even if a trade improves the team today, you still want to ask yourself if it was worth it in case you're going to look weaker next year. A trade that may only just get you to the playoffs and past round one to stretch it would be considered overpayment in that case.

Look at Calgary; they have their infamous "window." After next year Kipper, Regehr et al are up for contract negotiations, so Sutter looks to add fireworks now, to help his team now. The Oilers aren't in a similar situation, so for Lowe to go out and pay through the nose for a guy like Souray, who would only make the team marginally better (especially considering a roster player like Torres would go the other way), is nothing more than okay deal for the now and a bad one for the future.

The cup is the ultimate prize and unless you consider your squad to have all the pieces except say Sheldon Souray, I'd say pass on him. It's clear that Lowe hasn't seen the opportunity this year to improve the team drastically enough to give up what most, if not all, GM's would ask for, so he bides his time. Drives a lot if people nuts, I know, but I know I haven't lost my patience.

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02-21-2007, 03:45 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
And someone mentions Pitkanen again in the thread, so I figured I would chime in again.

Joni Pitkanen for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round choices.

At the time it would have equated to Jochen Hecht and two 2nd rounders (And that year it would have been JDD and Matt Greene)
It would have been Stoll and JDD since we got those picks by trading Hecht. Greene was taken with the actual pick the Oilers had (44th)

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02-21-2007, 03:47 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
What is overpay to you?
I like this question

Theoretically it is impossible to overpay for a trade while you are doing it. By the time you weigh all of the assets and risks with the information you have, I doubt any GM would overpay given their scenario and predicted outcomes.

However, overpay is something you can judge in hindsight. For example, the LA Kings overpaid for Sopel and Parrish last year by trading Tambellini and Grebeshkov. However at the time of the deal, if the Kings thought they were going to make the playoffs or resign Parrish, it's not such a bad move.

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Old
02-21-2007, 03:59 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
It would have been Stoll and JDD since we got those picks by trading Hecht. Greene was taken with the actual pick the Oilers had (44th)
Now come on...how is my cockameme thought process going to work if the guy we traded for the two seconds is in the trade thought with the two 2nds.....

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Old
02-21-2007, 04:01 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Joni Pitkanen for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round choices.
I was always under the impression that the Pitkanen deal was considered robbery by Clarke.

The only thing that gives it any measure of a good deal from a Lightning standpoint is that Fedotenko was on the cup winning team but even then you would have to talk yourself into believing that Fedotenko was critical to their success, which I personally don't really believe.

I may be wrong on this part but I actually thought that Tampa was is such dire straits money wise that the pick was moved as almost a salary dump because they couldn't afford to pay the rookie max that Pitkanen would have commanded.

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02-21-2007, 04:12 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Now come on...how is my cockameme thought process going to work if the guy we traded for the two seconds is in the trade thought with the two 2nds.....
or would it have been Doug Weight since he was moved for Hecht, Reasoner and Horacek?

my brain hurts

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Old
02-21-2007, 04:18 PM
  #38
Master Lok
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Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Now come on...how is my cockameme thought process going to work if the guy we traded for the two seconds is in the trade thought with the two 2nds.....
Since Hecht netted us the two 2nd rounders (Stoll, JDD), then to get Pitkanen, it might have been a trade like York or Marchant plus Stoll / Jdd? Would you estimate that to be right from the 2001 Oiler team?

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Old
02-21-2007, 04:45 PM
  #39
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I am glad Lowe is showing prudence in not making any knee jerk trades at the moment. If it means a better team in the future for years to come, I am more than willing to sacrifice this year's playoff hopes. At the moment it looks dim anyway, so why be desperate? Make trades like the MAB one that puts you in a vastly stronger position for years to come.

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02-21-2007, 04:57 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Since Hecht netted us the two 2nd rounders (Stoll, JDD), then to get Pitkanen, it might have been a trade like York or Marchant plus Stoll / Jdd? Would you estimate that to be right from the 2001 Oiler team?
I don't know if it would be that high. Fedotenko was a 23 year old coming off a 26 point season.

It would be closer if it was Cleary who was 23 and coming off a 29 point season. I picked Hecht because he seemed to me to be a similar player with a little more value.

York was coming off a 60 point season and Marchant was a defensive veteran which wasn't what Tampa was looking for. It appears looking at what Fedotenko was at the time was a nice complimentary scorer with 17 out of his 26 points being goals.

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Old
02-21-2007, 05:01 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

Kevin Lowe won't do any deals because he won't "overpay."

I saw this in an earlier thread and thought the concept deserved to be discussed. In negotiations, in every deal, there are assets that you like, and assets you could reasonably part with.

I find it hard to believe that any deal isn't out there, but one that Kevin Lowe likes isn't.

At the beginning of the year, we all wanted the Stanley Cup. Well, without a top two pairing defender, this team was not going to accomplish that.

Would the several million dollars from the playoffs be worth Raffi Torres? How about a first round loss to Nashville?

If Stuart cost Torres and a 2nd....
And Sopel cost Lupul and a 3rd....

If that meant getting to the 2nd round would you do it?(Or would have done it in Stuart's case.)

People say that Lowe won't overpay...but there are others that want to see playoff hockey in Edmonton. What players are you willing to move to see the playoffs this year?(Or for those who think the Oilers are done...which guys would you have moved?)

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.

What is overpay to you?




I don't blame KLowe one bit. Even if he agreed to give up Torres and Lupul for Stuart, (just as an example) would that get us close to the Cup? It might mean we would make the playoffs, "Might", but would we get very far? If the asking price was Winnie and a second, I'd question his sanity for taking them up on that. It's clear that Winnie isn't in MacT's plans, so it would be alright to trade him. Essentially trade your guys you can afford to trade. It was like Tarnquivst last year, they weren't going to resign him, we weren't going to resign Cross or Rita. Worked out alright for both clubs. When you get rid of a important part of your club, either for the future or right now, you better be damn sure you're going to be able to go all the way. The way I see it we have way too many holes for this year. We aren't going very far even if we make the playoffs. Wait til the off season, pick up some UFA's and look to next year. But make sure you address it next summer. If they do it again, and wait to address it during the season, man I'll be pissed.

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02-21-2007, 05:06 PM
  #42
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If Sopel is worth Lupul and a 3rd...well...damn.

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02-21-2007, 05:08 PM
  #43
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Too bad I'm not the Sharks GM. I would have given up Michalek, Carle, and a first for Chris Pronger.

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02-21-2007, 05:33 PM
  #44
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Too bad I'm not the Sharks GM. I would have given up Michalek, Carle, and a first for Chris Pronger.
I'm glad you aren't! That's a pretty damn good package.

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02-21-2007, 05:43 PM
  #45
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Too bad I'm not the Sharks GM. I would have given up Michalek, Carle, and a first for Chris Pronger.
Call me silly, but I think both the Sharks and the Oilers would be better if this deal was done.

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02-21-2007, 05:49 PM
  #46
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Man, Jean-Claude has some wicked dance moves.

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Old
02-21-2007, 06:01 PM
  #47
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If Sopel is worth Lupul and a 3rd...well...damn.
Sopel's not worth a 7th round pick, on its own.

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02-21-2007, 07:11 PM
  #48
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I think the prices might be a bit more for the Oilers, becasue everyone knows what a big hole we need to fill. What GM would give fair value to another GM who is desperate.
People always say this but I doubt there is any truth.


If the Oilers didn't need a dman we would not be looking for them. If a team needs a dman they contact other teams and that establishes the market. If many teams are doing this other teams suddenly realize a certain kind of player is hot.


Last year goalies were also a big thing, and now they are talking about how there may not be anyone interested in paying too much for Biron because there are a lot of goalies available.

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02-21-2007, 10:09 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul View Post
Interesting concept. "He won't over pay."

...

Here is the point...if you are taking the bus to work, but miss your bus and are going to get fired, the $30 cab ride might be considered a bargain. On other days...it's a rip off.
I think you can take this analogy one step further, to account for the draft pick. If Lowe doesn't take the cab ride and cuts his losses, maybe he invests some time thinking about his next job and learns a lesson about how to do things in the future so that this situation doesn't happen again.

What we seem to do every year instead is start an indecisive jog to work, debating the entire way whether to drop some cash on the cab, and crossing our fingers that we can sneak in through the back door without getting fired. This year we got caught. But it was close, right? So will we learn our lesson? Probably not. The result? Here's to another first-round pick in the 10-15 range.

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02-21-2007, 11:37 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Call me silly, but I think both the Sharks and the Oilers would be better if this deal was done.
Definitely.

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