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"He won't overpay."

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Old
02-22-2007, 01:19 AM
  #51
Milpool
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I agree with Lowe. Nashville overpaid for Forsberg this year, but that move worked because

a) The Predators have the organizational depth to afford such a payment;

b)The Preds are among the top 3 teams in the league, and

c) Forsberg's a legit game-breaker when healthy.

Neither really describes the Oilers right now, and I don't think Tkachuk or Guerin or whoever else aren't rental players you give up the future for.

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Old
02-22-2007, 01:20 AM
  #52
oilfaninvan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Does anyone else just want the 27th to come already? It's getting really dull talking about the same stuff.
Is it? Then why did you waste your time posting that?

I like what was said about taking a 30$ cab ride when you think you might get fired - haha. I guess overpaying right NOW to make a run at the cup seems a bit pointless because we would have to overpay for many players, not just one or two. We need more than Bill Guerin to help us. We need a guy like that, and a solid D.

But hey, I never thought of Spacek as a great player until we traded for him...maybe there are some gems out there that kLo has his eye on that we haven't mentioned yet. Blake from NYI has been mentioned - would we have to overpay for him? What would Roenick out of Phoenix cost? My point is, it is worth gambling on a player than overpaying. That's pretty much what kLo did with Nedved I think.

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Old
02-22-2007, 01:53 AM
  #53
alanschu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul View Post
Why do people call Torres and a first for Stuart an overpay, if it gets you to where you want to go?
Probably because there are also considerations for where we'd like to go in future years as well.

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Old
02-22-2007, 02:22 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by George Bachul View Post
Much easier to have numerous subjects when the team is winning.....when you are losing, it is "Boy we suck." and "Let's trade the whole team."

Personally, I don't advocate anything I said particularly above. I just think that "overpay" is very subjective. What constitutes an overpay?

A little different from the other rigamarole going around.
I really don't think that Lowe has done anything wrong per se. Last years team made it to the seventh game of the Stanley Cup final. It did so with a lot of effort, determination and some important body fluids.

Ultimately, it was a team that failed to get the job done. At the risk of sounding harsh, the team either simply didn't feel entitled enough to win the seventh game, or they were duped by game 6 with the "big win" at home. They simply weren't mentally ready for game 7 and got schooled.

After the playoffs the team dismantled. Many of the players were frustrated, no doubt, by the lack of success (read: not having Lord Stanley's prize in their hands after a lot of hard work). Lowe made it known how he felt, when he didn't resign a number of the players who held their wallets open at the season's end as UFAs. Lowe re-signed some key players (Pisani and Roloson), and let a large group of others walk. He missed a key signing in Spacek, I think, because he was unwilling to overspend for a player he felt he could acquire elsewhere, a miscalculation perhaps. The Pronger trade was forced on Lowe. Lowe made a good trade, however, acquiring Smid and Lupul in the deal with the picks.

Smid has exceeded most expectations as a 21-year-old defenseman in this league. Lupul has spent the better part of the season under intense scrutiny from the fans for being part of the Pronger deal, which is understandable for the fans, but a difficult situation for a 23-year-old to be in. Lupul hasn't performed exceptionally well, but neither did Peca last season, and he wasn't such a bad hockey player after all, so I think that we should cut the kid some slack.

The exodus of players at the end of the season is attributable to Lowe's decision over the summer to go with youth. The fact that George Laraque was allowed to walk made a very strong statement that the team was getting younger. The player exodus had very little to do with the city of Edmonton, that so many of the eastern sports writers eluded to so quickly, and more to do with Lowe's long term vision.

Ultimately, the team was stripped down to a group of core players from last year. The team made a real movement toward youth recently (13 players on our current roster are 25 or under). Over the course of the season, the team didn't responded to its dismantling well, but it is currently being remodelled into a winner for the future.

Lowe should be commended for one move over the summer, his biggest success, the signing of Ales Hemsky to a multi-year deal. Signing Hemsky was the one deal that ensures this team has a bright future and demonstrates why Lowe is one of the elite GMs in the league.

Lowe is doing an excellent job. He's looking at this team's long-term future and stability. The Oiler's fans simply aren't as patient or as brilliant as their team's GM, although their goals are similar.

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Old
02-22-2007, 02:57 AM
  #55
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The Oilers offered the same as Buffalo but Spacek chose Buffalo because of less travel. The Oilers are at a disadvantage because of travel. I believe they log the most miles a season from all the teams in the NHL.

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Old
02-22-2007, 03:01 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Buddha View Post
I really don't think that Lowe has done anything wrong per se. Last years team made it to the seventh game of the Stanley Cup final. It did so with a lot of effort, determination and some important body fluids.
Ironic that those same bodily fluids led to the trading of our best player only a few days later, isn't it?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

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Old
02-22-2007, 03:14 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by dubya View Post
Ironic that those same bodily fluids led to the trading of our best player only a few days later, isn't it?

Sorry, couldn't resist.
Not the exact same ones, blood and sweat I was thinking of, but I see your point.

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Old
02-22-2007, 02:54 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by grego View Post
People always say this but I doubt there is any truth.


If the Oilers didn't need a dman we would not be looking for them. If a team needs a dman they contact other teams and that establishes the market. If many teams are doing this other teams suddenly realize a certain kind of player is hot.


Last year goalies were also a big thing, and now they are talking about how there may not be anyone interested in paying too much for Biron because there are a lot of goalies available.
But every team needs a dman. They are probably the most valuable commodity you can have, since defensive depth is so important.

I dont know if there is any truth to it, but if I was a GM with some d to spare, I'd dangle them in front of the teams that are desperate for defensive help, and hold out as long as possible before I dropped my price. Because you never know when some other team is going to become desperate as well (due to injuries or something) and make your spare defenseman more valuable.

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Old
02-22-2007, 03:34 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Q038 View Post
Klowe might need to adjust from the money pinching era pre new CBA a little.. Overpayment doesn't always need to be a bad word if the piece is right... personally im not convinced Stuart is worth an over payment of major proportions... besides, Stuart doesn't guarantee any playoff position, not many players would in the situation we are in. we did have Pronger and Spacek last year and we barely made the playoffs.....

Now if Lecavalier was put on the block this summer, id over pay till cows came home...
I'm not sure there is much basis for Lowe needing to adjust as you suggest.

Last year he DID overpay for the piece we needed (Roloson for a 1st was WIDELY regarded as an overpayment... until it worked out and Lowe looked genius).

He had that luxury because he had the core of a team that was only a few players away from making noise... a few of the missing peices came at nil or negligible expense (Sammy, Spacek, etc), so making one overpayment for the last piece to come into focus was justified.

This year we have several holes, key injuries, and by most accounts, the market for rentals is much more fierce. Just compare the Spacek and Stuart trades... obviously Stuart is a slightly better Dman, but he also has made it WIDELY known that he wants to go back to San Jose in the summer... which would remove any doubt that he is clearly just a rental.

In a way, Lowe's success last year has (IMO) helped stimulate the greed of the sellers this year... they want more because they saw Lowe take advantage of a buyers market... the template is there.

This year we are seeing a price inflation which may drive the activity down if the GM's are really that skittish, or at worst, likely plateau or even decline next year.

If I was Lowe, I'd look at my team and see a core of guys 23-27 that I want to build around. I'd deal off a few of the older guys, stockpile some picks/prospects and reload the cupboards for the next season when I am in a prime buying position (standings wise) in more friendly market.

I totally support the direction we've gone this year... I wish the deals for a dman were there in December, but if they weren't, then I'm glad we didn't dismantle our opportunity.

From a LONG TERM perspective we are in a good position. We have the bulk of a SCFinals team still in place, we added a few younger parts and we are a superstar Dman, some maturity and a 3rd line center, or 2 good dmen, some maturity and a 3rd line center away from contenting again.

I'd be interested to see a list of UFA for 2008. (Lowe's more relevant shopping list)

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Old
02-22-2007, 03:45 PM
  #60
alanschu
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I'd argue that the term "overpayment" is always a bad word (and woefully overused on these boards). You should pay what the market dictates.

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Old
02-22-2007, 05:37 PM
  #61
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There's still always room for overpayment, but I hear you. People are very prone to babbling about overpayment on this board.

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Old
02-22-2007, 05:42 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
I'd argue that the term "overpayment" is always a bad word (and woefully overused on these boards). You should pay what the market dictates.
Unfortunately, the market isn't perfect. No market is (one thing I remember from economics class).

Case and point, the Preds. I didn't realize how deep this organization is on defence. If Zidlicky or Timonen were to be traded, it would be for an overpayment because they have other teams by the balls. I team that has a very little timeframe to win the cup may overpay.

If overpayment gets you a cup, is it an overpayment?

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Old
02-22-2007, 07:28 PM
  #63
alanschu
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If they have the assets to spare, then I'd argue they aren't overpaying, especially if it makes them better. They have a surplus of one asset (in this case defensemen), so if they make a trade proposal to a team that demands that asset, they'll be able to charge a higher price.

It's only really an overpayment if you could have acquired the player for less cost of your own organization. This cost is in some ways independent of other teams, based on their own demand, as well as their own supply.

I think this is part of the problem when fans look at what a different team offered to get a player, and then criticize because that trade wasn't done by their own team.

Given the dynamic nature of a player's performance, things like overpayment can only really be determined with hindsight. A lot of people claim overpayment for the Predators. Though if Forsberg came in, averaged 2.5 PPG, the Preds swept their way to the Cup, and in the offseason Forsberg claims to have fallen in love with Nashville that he signs for 1.5 million dollars, it won't be seen as much of an overpayment as it would be if he comes in, gets 0 points, the team loses in the first round, and Peter goes somewhere else.

Winning the Stanley Cup (and going deep in the playoffs) obviously provides something of value to the organization, otherwise no team would bother doing it. If this value is worth the stuff Nashville gave up this year (and what they could afford to give up), then they win. I don't think it's an overpayment at all.

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