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Does 7-8 more million dollars make this a playoff team?

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Old
02-21-2007, 10:46 PM
  #1
Chimaera
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Does 7-8 more million dollars make this a playoff team?

Just wondering.



3 for Zubrus/Replacement.

4-5 for a defenseman.

That's about all there might be in the tank.

Is that going to put this team in the playoffs? (Plus Backstrom I guess)

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02-21-2007, 11:05 PM
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The Viking Fury
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8 million plus an entry level contract does put the team into the playoffs. A true first line center who can win faceoffs, and an defenseman who can shoot on the power play as well as defend moderately well in his own zone would win us more games. Also, some one who can score on shootouts

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02-21-2007, 11:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimaera View Post
Just wondering.



3 for Zubrus/Replacement.

4-5 for a defenseman.

That's about all there might be in the tank.

Is that going to put this team in the playoffs? (Plus Backstrom I guess)
Well, if we collectively consider Zubrus as "not top 6 talent" - whether we resign him or get an equivalent $3M replacement, we're still way short on top end talent. AO, Semin, and Backstrom makes 3 - Fehr may reach that point one day. So, for the sake of argument, we're still 2 players short on the top end offensively.

Signing a $5M defenseman gives us one top end Dman. Maybe Morisonn, but not right now.

Add an older Kolzig, and I'm afraid not. No playoffs next year with that scenario.

I think you need to add ANOTHER skilled forward OR ANOTHER Dman to your scenario and hope that Kolzig comes back strong.

$12M should do it I don't think that happens in one offseason. But Ted has said that they have people targeted this year...

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02-22-2007, 12:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimaera View Post
Just wondering.



3 for Zubrus/Replacement.

4-5 for a defenseman.

That's about all there might be in the tank.

Is that going to put this team in the playoffs? (Plus Backstrom I guess)

If you're spending $3 mill for a Zubrus replacement we're in trouble. No respectable free agent is coming here for that price, unless you're thinking of signing the likes of Handzus who has been hurt all year, Smolinski, Lindros, Lang, Bonk, Todd White, etc....those are the kind of gems that are available as free agents this summer.

Comrie is available but already makes $3mil and seems to be a hit in Ottawa.

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02-22-2007, 12:22 AM
  #5
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i d say lose zub and spend the extra on a datsyuk. Or keep Zub lose zed and any other spare part and get Datsyuk. A center and a top 2 Vet D are sorely needed on this team.....as well as others but who cares, cause weve got the cap room and plus I dont care about those other teams.

Bottom line is just do whatever you need to do to get these 2 crucial assets.

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02-22-2007, 02:53 AM
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This team definately needs a top center. We're all assuming GMGM will get Backstrom over here for next season, but until I see him on the ice, I won't get my hopes up too high...remember we thought he'd be here this season... Regardless if Backstrom is in DC or not, they're still lacking a top center who can play with Ovy.

The team also needs a defenseman who can play in all situations. Point on the PP is really lacking this year. The players we have now, (excluding Ovy and Semin who are currently as cold as James Brown's frozen corpse) aren't skilled enough to set up and score on the PP without having to play fetch with the goalie at the far end of the ice a half a dozen times. And for pity sake, STOP TELEGRAPHING YOUR SHOTS!

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02-22-2007, 03:41 AM
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If any FA was worth the moolah I'd say Chara was the guy. If the Caps spend 5 to 7 million on a guy that turns out to be only average that's gonna crush the team's chemistry. I dunno if anyone this year is that kind of a "sure thing" like Chara.

My hope is that the Caps trade quantity for quality...the same principle that Poile just worked with the Forsberg trade. The idea is to target a number of big-time players or prospects and then step up with picks and prospects to get a couple of them. To do whatever is necessary (within reason) to acquire one or two of your targets.

We have a few core building blocks with AO, Semin, Backstrom, Fehr, Green, Varlamov and Niewurth...most anyone else is available. Maybe it is too early for the Caps to make a deal like that but it seems like all the really great teams make deals like that to acquire core players...and we have a caboose full of prospects.

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02-22-2007, 03:48 AM
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Chim, I don't think it's the money so much. It's the chemisty and who is available. The Caps need one or two dynamic players to set the team into motion...like Mentos and Diet Coke...

I'm not sure that things have gone according to plan exactly as far as the salary cap goes. I think GMGM expected some major talent to be available because some teams got into cap trouble...I dunno that it has happened much. It doesn't seem that the Caps have taken advantage of it much if it has. Tho the 2nd rounder for Friesen was a nice upgrade.

The Caps need Pronger and Sundin. Then we'd be a legit threat next year. But how the hell do we get guys like that?

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02-22-2007, 05:37 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt View Post
Chim, I don't think it's the money so much. It's the chemisty and who is available. The Caps need one or two dynamic players to set the team into motion...like Mentos and Diet Coke...

I'm not sure that things have gone according to plan exactly as far as the salary cap goes. I think GMGM expected some major talent to be available because some teams got into cap trouble...I dunno that it has happened much. It doesn't seem that the Caps have taken advantage of it much if it has. Tho the 2nd rounder for Friesen was a nice upgrade.

The Caps need Pronger and Sundin. Then we'd be a legit threat next year. But how the hell do we get guys like that?
I'm not even sure that would do it.

I just don't think the team is 2 players away. Maybe if we're talking 2 of the best in the league, but odds are they won't be able to obtain those.

So 2 decent players?


3 million is sure skimming the bottom of the barrel for a top 6, but I don't see there being a ton of extra cash to go around.

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02-22-2007, 08:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt View Post
The Caps need Pronger and Sundin. Then we'd be a legit threat next year. But how the hell do we get guys like that?
This is a topic that's been bugging me lately. There's gotta be variables beyond a couple top end talents required to turn a team around from cellar dweller into middle of the pack/playoff fringe team.

Look at what Boston did last year. They added Chara and Savard to a team that was (marginally) better than Washington. What has the result been? They've gone from .90 points per game to 1.05 points per game. That's decent, but Boston's sunk $62 million into 2 players over the next 5 years.

Look at Pittsburgh 2 years ago. They added Gonchar, LeClair (I know), Recchi, and Palffy. Zero improvement pointwise after spending $11.4 million in one shot.

It's easy to think that a couple superstars are the silver bullet, but are they really? I think it has more to do with depth, experience, and above all-goaltending. .

I don't think anything can turn this team around in 1 season except for some organic development. Of course, adding some experienced and decent players could accelerate that development.

Edit: One thing that's absolutely ridiculous is the shootout. I'd bring in a shootout ringer next season. We've left 8 points on the ice because we can't convert penalty shots. That's a little ridiculous. Even if we'd won half of those, we'd be a hair under .500 (at least by NHL nu-math standards)


Last edited by BrooklynCapsFan: 02-22-2007 at 09:00 AM.
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Old
02-22-2007, 09:01 AM
  #11
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Yeah, for how bad we are, I think we're pipe dreaming if we think this is a playoff team next year. We can hope to be marginally better than this year, but not playoff worthy.

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02-22-2007, 09:28 AM
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$3-4m on a d-man, $4m on a center, and I think we could squeak into a playoff spot if we stay healthy.

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02-22-2007, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Foy View Post
$3-4m on a d-man, $4m on a center, and I think we could squeak into a playoff spot if we stay healthy.
maybe,

But the Caps would also need Backtrom to come over and play like a quality top 6 center from day 1. And they would also need Fehr to step up (which I expect he will) and be at least a 15-20 goal scorer next season.

If that happens, + 8 million is spent on talent, then I think this team can make the playoffs. Personally I think the 2008/09 season is the year the Caps get back into the playoffs.

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02-22-2007, 12:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt View Post
If any FA was worth the moolah I'd say Chara was the guy. If the Caps spend 5 to 7 million on a guy that turns out to be only average that's gonna crush the team's chemistry. I dunno if anyone this year is that kind of a "sure thing" like Chara.

My hope is that the Caps trade quantity for quality...the same principle that Poile just worked with the Forsberg trade. The idea is to target a number of big-time players or prospects and then step up with picks and prospects to get a couple of them. To do whatever is necessary (within reason) to acquire one or two of your targets.

We have a few core building blocks with AO, Semin, Backstrom, Fehr, Green, Varlamov and Niewurth...most anyone else is available. Maybe it is too early for the Caps to make a deal like that but it seems like all the really great teams make deals like that to acquire core players...and we have a caboose full of prospects.
Didn't Boston spend over $7-million on Chara and $5-million on Savard?.... I don't think those two signings really helped the team much.


That being said, if the Caps "go after" one piece, it simply has to be a play-making center. I'm not saying to not go out and spend the money, I am saying spend it wisely.

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02-22-2007, 04:09 PM
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I don't think what you proposed is a full 7-8M upgrade. I ran the base salary numbers posted on nhlpa.com of the current team and changed the roster as I would love to see it next year.

AO-Gomez-Fehr
AS-NB-Lupul
Petty-Gordon-Clark
Brash-Laich-Bradley

Hannan-Jurcina
Mo-Pots
Erskine/Shultz-Green

Ollie/BJ

That team is an increase of about 6M assuming:

NB gets AO's contract
Gomez for 5.5M
Hannan for 6.5M

Obviously AO's bonuses are a wash in the difference in the teams. NB bonuses would cause for the difference to be between 7-8M as per your question.

So yes, in my pipe dream scenario with a competent GM and players willing to sign and my one trade of Lupul for Suts, Emi, + I don't care what else even our #1 this year..... I believe the team above IS a playoff team by adding 7-8M

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02-22-2007, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heshootshescores View Post
I don't think what you proposed is a full 7-8M upgrade. I ran the base salary numbers posted on nhlpa.com of the current team and changed the roster as I would love to see it next year.

AO-Gomez-Fehr
AS-NB-Lupul
Petty-Gordon-Clark
Brash-Laich-Bradley

Hannan-Jurcina
Mo-Pots
Erskine/Shultz-Green

Ollie/BJ

That team is an increase of about 6M assuming:

NB gets AO's contract
Gomez for 5.5M
Hannan for 6.5M

Obviously AO's bonuses are a wash in the difference in the teams. NB bonuses would cause for the difference to be between 7-8M as per your question.

So yes, in my pipe dream scenario with a competent GM and players willing to sign and my one trade of Lupul for Suts, Emi, + I don't care what else even our #1 this year..... I believe the team above IS a playoff team by adding 7-8M
See, that's smart spending.

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02-22-2007, 04:22 PM
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Believe me I understand that it will blow up the next year when AO, AS go from 3M and 1.4M to 7M and 3.5M respectively. That's 6M there. Mo should go up a bit. Lupul would rise from 1.5 to 3M if he plays as expected. Mostly everyone else can be offered a QO.

Hopefully Ollies 5+M should go down a bit on a year to year basis.

So this pipedream is going to require another increase from 37M to about 45M by 2009. While Jagr's 4M makes up a bit, I don't see this team spending that much. Ted says 36M is about where he projects us to be able to spend now (inclusive of JJ). Perhaps it goes up a bit with time but not 45M.

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02-22-2007, 04:25 PM
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Jagr's money (while not counting toward the cap figure) is also gone after the 07/08 season... That's over $4-million that the team is now spending ..... it wouldn't surprise me if they turned around and put it right back into the team.

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02-22-2007, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by HockeyCritter View Post
Jagr's money (while not counting toward the cap figure) is also gone after the 07/08 season... That's over $4-million that the team is now spending ..... it wouldn't surprise me if they turned around and put it right back into the team.
I agree. I should have made it more clearer that 45M was in 2008/2009 and when I say JJ money makes up a bit, I mean it makes the 45M look like 41M today. Basically we are agreeing with each other.

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02-22-2007, 04:33 PM
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I agree. I should have made it more clearer that 45M was in 2008/2009 and when I say JJ money makes up a bit, I mean it makes the 45M look like 41M today. Basically we are agreeing with each other.
Yep --- and truthfully, I think it would be stupid to spend upwards of $40-million on payroll THIS season --- with Semin and Ovechkin needing new deals after 07/08.

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02-22-2007, 04:44 PM
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Yep --- and truthfully, I think it would be stupid to spend upwards of $40-million on payroll THIS season --- with Semin and Ovechkin needing new deals after 07/08.
I agree. But Cap and salary are two different things. My "roster" above would have a Cap hit around 38-39M, but if AO and NB don't reach their bonuses, it could be 35M in salary + JJ's 4 = 39M in total out. Realistically they may only hit some of the bonus. When the next year comes around, the cap hit in the re-signed AO, AS, Lupul scenarios is 45M with salary 40-45M (with JJ's 4M gone).

So is revenue sharing with this roster.

Also, with most teams spending at the cap, I wonder if the Cap salary will go down due to escrow. Escrow is shared evenly among the players which would still lower the actual expenditures from the Caps paid salary.

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02-22-2007, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Chimaera View Post
Just wondering.



3 for Zubrus/Replacement.

4-5 for a defenseman.

That's about all there might be in the tank.

Is that going to put this team in the playoffs? (Plus Backstrom I guess)
NO...not enough. The Caps have far too little experience on defense. Its abundantly clear the Caps don't have near enough experience with the talent in order to have a well rounded defense corp.

Ive said this for a long time and it still stands. They need three of the young guys with three veterans to have a chance. I am not sure Pothier counts and I dont think Erskine or Heward or Muir count.

I think they need TWO defensemen at minimum.

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02-22-2007, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by heshootshescores View Post
I agree. But Cap and salary are two different things. My "roster" above would have a Cap hit around 38-39M, but if AO and NB don't reach their bonuses, it could be 35M in salary + JJ's 4 = 39M in total out. Realistically they may only hit some of the bonus. When the next year comes around, the cap hit in the re-signed AO, AS, Lupul scenarios is 45M with salary 40-45M (with JJ's 4M gone).

So is revenue sharing with this roster.

Also, with most teams spending at the cap, I wonder if the Cap salary will go down due to escrow. Escrow is shared evenly among the players which would still lower the actual expenditures from the Caps paid salary.
I always thought as long as the Caps are on the hook for part of Jagr's salary (one more season) ... they would make sure they stay under that revenue sharing threshold.

I see what you are saying salary vs. cap hit ... I tend to think of cap hit rather than actual dollars paid out when working up fantasy rosters .... as that is the MOST that the team would have to pay out and that is how they plan the budget.


Quote:
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NO...not enough. The Caps have far too little experience on defense. Its abundantly clear the Caps don't have near enough experience with the talent in order to have a well rounded defense corp.

Ive said this for a long time and it still stands. They need three of the young guys with three veterans to have a chance. I am not sure Pothier counts and I dont think Erskine or Heward or Muir count.

I think they need TWO defensemen at minimum.
So if they get two defensemen ... which two "kids" sit?

Caps will (most likely) re-sign Erskine (at least I am hoping they do) .... I also think they will sign Jurcina.

That gives them Erskine, Pothier, Jurcina, and Morrisonn. I think Green will be back with the club and then there's Eminger and Schultz (who is showing he does indeed have the ability to be a solid NHL defenseman).

If the team signs/trades for two vet defensemen, which kids are traded/sent packing to Hershey?

I can see acquiring one defenseman --- the only way I see them getting two is if one of Jurcina or Erskine are NOT re-signed.

Then again, I could be over-thinking the entire situation.



And off topic for a second, what is with the “you must abide by the forum rules before posting” screen that keeps popping up?


Last edited by HockeyCritter: 02-22-2007 at 06:48 PM. Reason: Combined Posts
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Old
02-22-2007, 07:48 PM
  #24
Chimaera
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I agree with needing 2-3 vets with the young guys on defense. But that is if none of the young guys step up. Morrisonn should be a vet by now (or darn near to one).

So maybe 2 guys on defense?

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02-23-2007, 07:28 AM
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"So if they get two defensemen ... which two "kids" sit?

"Caps will (most likely) re-sign Erskine (at least I am hoping they do) .... I also think they will sign Jurcina.

That gives them Erskine, Pothier, Jurcina, and Morrisonn. I think Green will be back with the club and then there's Eminger and Schultz (who is showing he does indeed have the ability to be a solid NHL defenseman).

If the team signs/trades for two vet defensemen, which kids are traded/sent packing to Hershey?

I can see acquiring one defenseman --- the only way I see them getting two is if one of Jurcina or Erskine are NOT re-signed.

Then again, I could be over-thinking the entire situation. "


They will never get anywhere if they have Morrisonn, Eminger, Jurcina, Schultz, & Green all on their defense. Period. Defense is as much about experience as it is about ability. Players with ability and experience are the best defensemen. Often player with experience and less ability are better performers than those with less experience and more ability.

You can add Erskine and Pothier to the lack of experience group since Erskine has few NHL games and Pothier few games above the 3rd pair.

Erskine or Heward would be decent #6's. They could keep them as 6 and 7. If they kept Morrisonn, Jurcina and Green to play with $7m in acquired defensemen( say a $4.5m and a $2.5m defenseman), they would have a potentially very competitive defense corp and would be able to use Eminger, Schultz, Pokoluk, Finley and the others either as tradeable assets to acquire players or as future players that can grow at a more comfortable pace.

On the other hand if they have 4 of those under 25's on the ice in the same game, they will continue to stink.

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