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Potential for a Big Deal This Summer

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02-27-2007, 09:40 PM
  #1
Asiaoil
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Potential for a Big Deal This Summer

As I have said in another thread - the Smyth deal not only gave us young talent and picks - it gave us a $4-5 million salary slot. Given the number of 1st round draft picks we have this year (3) and the crazy number of young centers (Cogs, O'Marra, Schremp, Pouliot, Nillsen, Brodziak) and dmen (Smid, Greene, Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Chorney, Petry) in the system - we are now set to make a big deal at the draft.

I could see us having some very serious talks with a team like Tampa who is in cap hell with too many big contracts - and offering something like Horcoff, O'Marra and 2 first round picks for Vinny. Not saying that deal would satify either side - but it would save TBL over $3 million a year, give them a lot of young talent plus a great 2nd line guy in Horcoff who would not be a massive downgrade. It would also give us a true young elite player for a measly $1 million more then what Smyth wanted (who is clearly not elite)

The success of today's deal all depends on what we do this summer - but don't discount what having all these picks, prospects and salary space can get us. If Lowe makes the right deal this summer - we will be FAR FAR better off then opening up the vault for Smyth over the next 5 years.

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02-27-2007, 09:44 PM
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I'd prefer to just re-sign Smyth in July and move other guys like Pisani.

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02-27-2007, 09:48 PM
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I'll also be happy if we can sign one or more of Durry, Briere, Datsyuk, Gomez, Markov, Timonen, Rafalski, Phillips

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02-27-2007, 09:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
I'd prefer to just re-sign Smyth in July and move other guys like Pisani.
Well I think that's what most people want, but you can't always get what you want. I'd like to find the team that takes guys-like-Pisani's salary.

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02-27-2007, 09:49 PM
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My prediction is this summer we will trade Smith + Horcoff + all 3 of our 1st to Philly for Pitkanen and their 1st. We draft Turris. Then we resign Smyth as a UFA. Also we keep Hedja

We get Lupul and Schremp into some strength and speed training in the offseason as well. Likely Nilsson as well.

Next Sept we run with the best combination of these players in camp.

C - Stoll, Schremp, Pouliot, Reasoner, Brodziak
W - Smyth, Hemsky, Lupul, Pisani, Stortini, Jacques, Torres, Moreau, Trukhno, Thoresen, Nilsson
D - Pitkanen, Smid, Greene, Staios, Hedja, Roy, Gilbert, Syvret
G- Roli, JDD, DD


Last edited by s7ark: 02-27-2007 at 09:55 PM.
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02-27-2007, 10:21 PM
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Lecavalier is not going anywhere after the season he just had. Lets not live in fantasy land here.

We've been talking about the big deal our assets could bring us all year and it hasn't happened yet.

Frankly I just want to get Smyth back... if we can't, you target one of the UFA defenders.

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02-27-2007, 10:21 PM
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AO:

I think that is probably the plan, but I think Lecavalier is a poor choice as he's a UFA at the end of next season. Richards makes a lot of money, but if they like him that much he's tied up for another 4 years.

Then again, if they went for Lecavalier and he left after a year, they could reallocate his 6.8 mil in the crazy 2008 summer bonanza.

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02-27-2007, 10:22 PM
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Fernando Pisani may be slightly overpaid, but he's done more to help the team win than most of the players we have.

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02-27-2007, 10:25 PM
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Yeah.

Isn't this the deal we were waiting for all year though? We had $5,000,000 in cap space and all sorts of prospects.. nothing.

Now we have $10,000,000 in cap and even more prospects...

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02-27-2007, 10:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
I'd prefer to just re-sign Smyth in July and move other guys like Pisani.
yup, me too.... now dont get me wrong, i think paying smyth 5.5 or 5.75 is a pretty large overpay, but not NEAR the overpay that 2.5 for pisani is

would you all rather have smyth at 5.75 + whatever we can trade pisani for.... OR.... pisani at 2.5 and what we got for smyth?

haha, yeah thats what i thought.... the reason why lowe had to be such a penny-pincher with smyth (word is that they were only 200-300k/year apart) is because he lavishly overpsent on pisani in the offseason.... we paid 2.5 million for a guy who has scored a career high 18 goals instead of paying 5.5 million for a guy who has 8 20+ goal seasons and 4 30+ goal seasons.... yeah, that makes a LOT of sense lowe

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02-27-2007, 10:34 PM
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People were all hollering for the Smyth trade, now it happened, and everyone is upset. all i can do is laugh at those people.

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02-27-2007, 10:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
yup, me too.... now dont get me wrong, i think paying smyth 5.5 or 5.75 is a pretty large overpay, but not NEAR the overpay that 2.5 for pisani is

would you all rather have smyth at 5.75 + whatever we can trade pisani for.... OR.... pisani at 2.5 and what we got for smyth?

haha, yeah thats what i thought.... the reason why lowe had to be such a penny-pincher with smyth (word is that they were only 200-300k/year apart) is because he lavishly overpsent on pisani in the offseason.... we paid 2.5 million for a guy who has scored a career high 18 goals instead of paying 5.5 million for a guy who has 8 20+ goal seasons and 4 30+ goal seasons.... yeah, that makes a LOT of sense lowe
That deal was not simply smart budget allocation.

Great player, great results on ES, but a 3rd liner that isn't going to get better. On top of that, 4 YEARS! Funny how Lowe didn't feel he was worth even 1.1M back in January when the Pisani camp was asking for that much....

Me thinks Lowe looked too much into the playoffs. Pisani given a huge deal based on playoff performance. Lupul horrible numbers on ES (minus player all regular season), and he has a solid performance in the playoffs, which urged Lowe to give him 2.6M next year, and 2.9M the season after.

If you overpay, at least overpay the top end guys rather than your third line players(I'd argue Moreau is overpaid too)

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02-27-2007, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
My prediction is this summer we will trade Smith + Horcoff + all 3 of our 1st to Philly for Pitkanen and their 1st. We draft Turris. Then we resign Smyth as a UFA. Also we keep Hedja

We get Lupul and Schremp into some strength and speed training in the offseason as well. Likely Nilsson as well.

Next Sept we run with the best combination of these players in camp.

C - Stoll, Schremp, Pouliot, Reasoner, Brodziak
W - Smyth, Hemsky, Lupul, Pisani, Stortini, Jacques, Torres, Moreau, Trukhno, Thoresen, Nilsson
D - Pitkanen, Smid, Greene, Staios, Hedja, Roy, Gilbert, Syvret
G- Roli, JDD, DD


Did you hit the sauce hard after the Smyth trade?!

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02-27-2007, 10:51 PM
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misfit
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having all those extra picks would really make it easy for us to sign an RFA to an offer sheet. Pitkanen, Horton, Ballard, Suter, Jackman, Parise, Vanek, and Volchenkov would all look pretty good here.

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02-27-2007, 10:53 PM
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^ I'd hope Lowe has the guts to do that.

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02-27-2007, 10:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
That deal was not simply smart budget allocation.

Great player, great results on ES, but a 3rd liner that isn't going to get better. On top of that, 4 YEARS! Funny how Lowe didn't feel he was worth even 1.1M back in January when the Pisani camp was asking for that much....

Me thinks Lowe looked too much into the playoffs. Pisani given a huge deal based on playoff performance. Lupul horrible numbers on ES (minus player all regular season), and he has a solid performance in the playoffs, which urged Lowe to give him 2.6M next year, and 2.9M the season after.

If you overpay, at least overpay the top end guys rather than your third line players(I'd argue Moreau is overpaid too)
couldnt agree more.... if there is one thing that lowe has proven as GM its the he doesnt know how to do contracts AT ALL.... id go so far as to say id rather him not do another one period, let howson handle all the negotiating.... i still think lowe has an eye for talent, but hes simply not there when it comes to the "dollars and cents" part of being a GM (which is sadly at least 50% of being a GM in the first place)

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02-27-2007, 10:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Did you hit the sauce hard after the Smyth trade?!
is it that obvious?

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02-27-2007, 10:55 PM
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jadeddog
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
having all those extra picks would really make it easy for us to sign an RFA to an offer sheet. Pitkanen, Horton, Ballard, Suter, Jackman, Parise, Vanek, and Volchenkov would all look pretty good here.
wouldnt he though? yet another of lowes brilliant trades, lol

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02-27-2007, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
That deal was not simply smart budget allocation.

Great player, great results on ES, but a 3rd liner that isn't going to get better. On top of that, 4 YEARS! Funny how Lowe didn't feel he was worth even 1.1M back in January when the Pisani camp was asking for that much....

Me thinks Lowe looked too much into the playoffs. Pisani given a huge deal based on playoff performance. Lupul horrible numbers on ES (minus player all regular season), and he has a solid performance in the playoffs, which urged Lowe to give him 2.6M next year, and 2.9M the season after.

If you overpay, at least overpay the top end guys rather than your third line players(I'd argue Moreau is overpaid too)
We're paying Lupul 2.9 million for next year!! That's gut wrenching.

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02-27-2007, 11:01 PM
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having all those extra picks would really make it easy for us to sign an RFA to an offer sheet. Pitkanen, Horton, Ballard, Suter, Jackman, Parise, Vanek, and Volchenkov would all look pretty good here.
yes the Oilers could go the offer sheet route, but you can only use your own picks for that. Also, if EDM was to throw an offer sheet at someone this summer they'd be using 2008 (and potentially beyond) draft picks.

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02-27-2007, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
That deal was not simply smart budget allocation.

Great player, great results on ES, but a 3rd liner that isn't going to get better. On top of that, 4 YEARS!
He doesn't have to get better. A guy you can play throughout your lineup and put out on the PK is someone who doesn't need to get better to live up to the value of the contract. When you start shelling out $5.5 mil, you damn well better get full value on that money. The more your offensive production drops, the less value you have.

Quote:
Funny how Lowe didn't feel he was worth even 1.1M back in January when the Pisani camp was asking for that much....
It might not be that he didn't think he was worth it, but instead wasn't sure if he was going to be able to do the things he wanted to do (i.e. sign Hemmer). Don't forget, we still had Pronger under contract at the time. Lowe was not shy to let lesser resources (Peca, Spacek) go for nothing, I don't think Pisani would have been any different.

But after Pronger demands to be traded, that changes things.

Quote:
Me thinks Lowe looked too much into the playoffs. Pisani given a huge deal based on playoff performance. Lupul horrible numbers on ES (minus player all regular season), and he has a solid performance in the playoffs, which urged Lowe to give him 2.6M next year, and 2.9M the season after.
Most young players are terrible at ES. And I don't think Lowe looked only at the playoffs. Pronger wanted out, and Pisani was a key contributor during the finals. Imagine if Pisani signs elsewhere for the same $2.5 mil... the complaint would be that the Oilers cheaped out on a UFA signing of a player who was huge for them.

Quote:
If you overpay, at least overpay the top end guys rather than your third line players(I'd argue Moreau is overpaid too)
How much are you overpaying? If Moreau and Pisani are over-paid a combined $1mil over the life of the contracts, that's not nearly as bad as Smyth being overpaid by $3 mil over the life of his contract.

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02-27-2007, 11:02 PM
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we had the potential for a big deal last summer, as well. too bad lowe got ***** by burke in the pronger trade and then proceeded to replace pronger with NOBODY. no, Cream Puff Tjarnquist doesn't count.

sure, we've got potential for a big deal this summer, but i'm sure you'll forgive me if i say "i'll belive it when i see it."

you know, fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice...

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02-27-2007, 11:09 PM
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I fear our "big deal" wil be overpaying for over-rated defensemen like Stuart or Souray. Look at Chara and Jovonovski's teams to see the results of that.

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02-27-2007, 11:09 PM
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misfit
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Originally Posted by speeds View Post
yes the Oilers could go the offer sheet route, but you can only use your own picks for that. Also, if EDM was to throw an offer sheet at someone this summer they'd be using 2008 (and potentially beyond) draft picks.
Even if they do have to be our picks (though I didn't know that), we still have the young guys taken with these newly aquired draft picks to offset the loss of future picks given up by signing an RFA.

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02-27-2007, 11:16 PM
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He doesn't have to get better. A guy you can play throughout your lineup and put out on the PK is someone who doesn't need to get better to live up to the value of the contract. When you start shelling out $5.5 mil, you damn well better get full value on that money. The more your offensive production drops, the less value you have.
Considering the Oilers were only 200-300K apart from the Smyth's camp (Bob McKenzie is rarely ever wrong), there's no cover up. The Oilers missed the boat.


Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
It might not be that he didn't think he was worth it, but instead wasn't sure if he was going to be able to do the things he wanted to do (i.e. sign Hemmer). Don't forget, we still had Pronger under contract at the time. Lowe was not shy to let lesser resources (Peca, Spacek) go for nothing, I don't think Pisani would have been any different.

But after Pronger demands to be traded, that changes things.
When you get a good deal - sign them. They can always be moved later. Sutter and Ference. Boston and Scatchard. NY and Ward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Most young players are terrible at ES. And I don't think Lowe looked only at the playoffs.
Lupul deal was based solely on potential, and Lowe was impressed by the playoffs (rightfully). It seems that too much was paid strictly on potential.


Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Pronger wanted out, and Pisani was a key contributor during the finals. Imagine if Pisani signs elsewhere for the same $2.5 mil... the complaint would be that the Oilers cheaped out on a UFA signing of a player who was huge for them.
I don't think any Oiler fan was exactly thrilled when it was annouced Pisani was earning 2.5M.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
How much are you overpaying? If Moreau and Pisani are over-paid a combined $1mil over the life of the contracts, that's not nearly as bad as Smyth being overpaid by $3 mil over the life of his contract.
Sure it's a gamble, but by that logic, we should not have signed Pronger to a 5 year deal either, and Hemsky to a 6 year deal.

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