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Potential for a Big Deal This Summer

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02-28-2007, 12:53 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Matts View Post
I hate to believe Meehan but i've heard enough lies from Lowe that I'd just as soon side with Meehan, and I feel dirty for even thinking that, but apparently they talked contract with teh Oilers this summer and then edm said no more talk until the end of the season. and then lowe goes and pays everyone else, or at least tries to and then comes back to 94 later on.

Lowe is such a blowhard that it's easy to pick him apart. I'm listening to the presser right now and Lowe says the team's gonna be aggressive in the FA market in one breath and then later on Jones asks if he'll make a promise but Lowe says things will have to fall to within salary scale and so on and so forth. so yeah they'd be agressive but we'll see. if they don't spend the money than that's fine cos the EIG can find a place for the cash.

now don't get me wrong because as an expos fan I saw Brochu painted with the black hat and he had a job to do and Lowe's probably the same. that being said I think he made the wrong move not getting this done early and there might not be a barrel of money on the float, and **** the EIG for that, but I think there was enough that it didn't have to end like this.
The speculation is just that -- speculation. It's hard to comment on this without knowing which version of the story is closer to the "truth."

The budget constraints certainly have a role to play in this. But the EIG and Lowe are not solely to blame imo. Smyth is not worth 6M imo, and he should have known that there is no way the Oilers would have given him 6M. It's his right to demand whatever he wants, but at that figure he forced Lowe's hand. Lowe OTOH should not have overpaid for lesser players -- that slightly overpayment left him no room to negotiate down to perhaps even a 5.5 figure. As it stands, that seemingly miniscule difference in cost + term may as well have been as wide as a damn ocean because there was simply no more room to budge on either side.

That's a shame, but that's the way it turned out.

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02-28-2007, 12:58 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by canadagal View Post


I also think that the Oilers should try to parlay those picks into a deal, as the draft history is a bit on the weakside.
Makes sense. You've got ~$5 million to spend and a freaking logjam at forward and a logjam at d spots 2-9, + 3 1st rounders.

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02-28-2007, 12:59 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Both Horcoff and Pisani's deals are off the books by the time years 4 and 5 of Smyth's contract would kick in. They have no bearing on the fact that Smyth wanted that much money that late into the contract, which by all accounts the sticking point.
We don't know how the contract was structured. If Lowe tried to make it work I bet he would have staggered the cost over the term so that they could fit under the budget in the next few years -- meaning the salary would likely have started lower and would have increased as the term progressed. I'm guessing the disagreement came over two things: how much of an increase there should have been, and how long the term should have been. The term issue may simply have been Lowe unwilling to have a 6M dollar at the age of 36/37. Both issues likely contributed.

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02-28-2007, 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
having all those extra picks would really make it easy for us to sign an RFA to an offer sheet. Pitkanen, Horton, Ballard, Suter, Jackman, Parise, Vanek, and Volchenkov would all look pretty good here.
Parise/Horton/Vanek=no chance in hell

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02-28-2007, 01:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post

(b) overpaying for other lesser players in the offseason -- which lead to this whole 500-750K difference being the breaking point.
Honestly, with only about $5 million in wiggle room right now for next season, I don't want Smyth back at 5.75, leaving only $2.5 million to play with.

I'd rather add a reliable back end to this team and sign Sykora.

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02-28-2007, 01:07 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
We don't know how the contract was structured. If Lowe tried to make it work I bet he would have staggered the cost over the term so that they could fit under the budget in the next few years -- meaning the salary would likely have started lower and would have increased as the term progressed. I'm guessing the disagreement came over two things: how much of an increase there should have been, and how long the term should have been. The term issue may simply have been Lowe unwilling to have a 6M dollar at the age of 36/37. Both issues likely contributed.
I'm not even talking $$... I am talking strictly cap hit. Pisani and Horcoff's contracts are off the table, so the question isn't whether their "overpays" hurt the Oilers ability to sign smyth, but whether ultimately, the Oilers didn't feel he'd be worth that sort of cap hit at the end of the deal.

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02-28-2007, 01:08 AM
  #82
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Tampa Bay has 20 million locked into the big three for the next two years. Can someone please explain to me why one of them could not be had in the right deal? Tampa needs to spend on their defence and also round out their forwards....one of those guys has to be available. Richards has the biggest contract and IMO will be the hardest to move. Lecavalier seems like the most tradeable asset to me, although St.Louis maybe the guy they try to deal.

Still if I'm Lowe, I offer a package like this:

Horcoff, Greene, Cogliano and a 1st for Lecavalier


then sign Phillips, Hejda, and Hartnell as UFA's

Hartnell Lecavalier Hemsky
Torres Pouliot Lupul
Moreau Stoll Pisani
Jacques Reasoner Thoresen/Nillson
Brodziak

Phillips Smith
Staios Smid
Gilbert Hejda
Roy

Roloson
Dubynk

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02-28-2007, 01:08 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by 17isGod View Post
Honestly, with only about $5 million in wiggle room right now for next season, I don't want Smyth back at 5.75, leaving only $2.5 million to play with.

I'd rather add a reliable back end to this team and sign Sykora.
The issue is if Horc was making 3 and Pisani 1.75, then Smyth making 5.5 wouldn't break the bank.

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02-28-2007, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
I'm not even talking $$... I am talking strictly cap hit. Pisani and Horcoff's contracts are off the table, so the question isn't whether their "overpays" hurt the Oilers ability to sign smyth, but whether ultimately, the Oilers didn't feel he'd be worth that sort of cap hit at the end of the deal.
With the EIG it's not about cap hit. Regardless of whether the cap goes up to 48M or whatever next season, the budget will stay at around 40-42M imo. Which means the real $$ being paid to Smyth out over the next 2-3 years (the term of Horc's, Roloson's and Pisani's contracts) would have to fit in with the rest of the real $$ being paid out to other players during that term. And I think they just couldn't agree on two things:

(a) term
(b) the dollar amount given out in each year of the term and how much it would have to increase in years 4-5 (when Horc and Pisani's contracts come off the books) to make it an avg of around 30M over 5 years.

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02-28-2007, 01:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
The issue is if Horc was making 3 and Pisani 1.75, then Smyth making 5.5 wouldn't break the bank.
Smyth at 5.5 over the first 3 years (after the 2nd year, Horcoff's contract is up and after the 3rd year Pisani's is up) isn't the issue. The issue is year 4 and 5 where he might not have the same value.

If Pisani and Horcoff were signed for the full length of Smyth's potential deal, I'd agree fully with you... but they aren't. They are already out of the picture when Ryan Smyth goes into the 2 critical years of the deal.

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02-28-2007, 01:14 AM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Smyth at 5.5 over the first 3 years (after the 2nd year, Horcoff's contract is up and after the 3rd year Pisani's is up) isn't the issue. The issue is year 4 and 5 where he might not have the same value.

If Pisani and Horcoff were signed for the full length of Smyth's potential deal, I'd agree fully with you... but they aren't. They are already out of the picture when Ryan Smyth goes into the 2 critical years of the deal.
See my post just previous to yours.

EDIT:

To add, they may even have disagreed with how much to pay in years 1-3. Without knowing exactly the contract structure that was presented we can't say for sure what was the exact breaking point, but it was likely a combination of the these three things.

(a) term
(b) how much to pay in years 1-3 to fit under the budget
(c) how much to increase in years 4-5 to get to 30M over 5 years + whether that increase was worth it for a 36/37 year old

I'm agreeing with you here, it's just semantics.

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02-28-2007, 01:16 AM
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then sign Phillips, Hejda, and Hartnell as UFA's
The only guy who would sign out of that lot is Hedja. Just because the guy is from Alberta doesn't mean he wants to play for the Oilers- again, UFAs just do not sign here if anyone else besides Montreal offers them a deal, better or otherwise.

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02-28-2007, 01:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
With the EIG it's not about cap hit. Regardless of whether the cap goes up to 48M or whatever next season, the budget will stay at around 40-42M imo. Which means the real $$ being paid to Smyth out over the next 2-3 years (the term of Horc's, Roloson's and Pisani's contracts) would have to fit in with the rest of the real $$ being paid out to other players during that term. And I think they just couldn't agree on two things:

(a) term
(b) the dollar amount given out in each year of the term and how much it would have to increase in years 4-5 (when Horc and Pisani's contracts come off the books) to make it an avg of around 30M over 5 years.
They were close in terms of money though, that's why I don't agree with you. They were in the same ballpart in terms of yearly money, but they were a full year apart on contract length.

Whether Smyth gets 6-6-6-6-6 or 8-6-6-4-4, Smyth still gets his money. How the contract is paid out means very little to him (and I'd argue the EIG would rather pay him more now while they are paying Hemsky less, and vice versa in 3 years).

Ultimately, it's how the contract works. Smyth wanted 5 years at a certain value, the Oilers felt he was worth a certain value over 4 years. That to me is what it boiled down to.

The Oilers could have done a lot of things if they felt he was worth the money he wanted, and they needed to clear up room for him to get it.

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02-28-2007, 01:18 AM
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The issue is if Horc was making 3 and Pisani 1.75, then Smyth making 5.5 wouldn't break the bank.
It doesn't matter if it breaks the bank or not -- they still can't sign a defenseman of any significance.

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02-28-2007, 01:26 AM
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Originally Posted by 17isGod View Post
It doesn't matter if it breaks the bank or not -- they still can't sign a defenseman of any significance.
And amazingly, not only did Lowe trade away Smyth... he didn't get a defenseman in return. Or for that matter, a starting defenseman for Pronger.

The reasoning behind that eludes me as it's been a gaping hole since last July.

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02-28-2007, 01:26 AM
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They were close in terms of money though, that's why I don't agree with you. They were in the same ballpart in terms of yearly money, but they were a full year apart on contract length.

Whether Smyth gets 6-6-6-6-6 or 8-6-6-4-4, Smyth still gets his money. How the contract is paid out means very little to him (and I'd argue the EIG would rather pay him more now while they are paying Hemsky less, and vice versa in 3 years).

Ultimately, it's how the contract works. Smyth wanted 5 years at a certain value, the Oilers felt he was worth a certain value over 4 years. That to me is what it boiled down to.

The Oilers could have done a lot of things if they felt he was worth the money he wanted, and they needed to clear up room for him to get it.
That's the thing though. Because the contract was likely staggered, the term impacted the yearly amount. How Smyth got paid meant little to him, but it meant a lot to EIG. Lowe probably got conflicted with two things:

(a) how to make it fit under the budget for all years of the term
(b) whether Smyth was worth the cap hit at age 36/37

I'd assume Smyth would have been willing to move to a shorter term in exchange for more money. But that would have put the contract over budget. So the sticking point with the term basically impacted the disagreement with the amount.

Yeah, the Oilers could have done a lot. Lowe felt he needed to keep Horc, Pisani et al. That's a questionable decision but it's the one that he made.

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02-28-2007, 01:28 AM
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It doesn't matter if it breaks the bank or not -- they still can't sign a defenseman of any significance.
True -- which is why I thought that Smyth being traded was the right thing to do given the situation that Lowe and the team was in with regards to budget space left. All I'm saying is that there might have been a way to squeeze his contract in IF guys hadn't been overpaid in the offseason.

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02-28-2007, 01:29 AM
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Originally Posted by canadagal View Post
And amazingly, not only did Lowe trade away Smyth... he didn't get a defenseman in return. Or for that matter, a starting defenseman for Pronger.

The reasoning behind that eludes me as it's been a gaping hole since last July.
Smid

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02-28-2007, 01:30 AM
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True -- which is why I thought that Smyth being traded was the right thing to do given the situation that Lowe and the team was in with regards to budget space left. All I'm saying is that there might have been a way to squeeze his contract in IF guys hadn't been overpaid in the offseason.
But they can't bring in a defenseman and essentially replay this year.

I'm not asking you who's on first...

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02-28-2007, 01:32 AM
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But they can't bring in a defenseman and essentially replay this year.

I'm not asking you who's on first...
If you're talking about whether Lowe should have overpaid in the first place, I agree with you. He shouldn't have.

If you're talking about whether Lowe should have gotten a better return in the Pronger trade -- that's a contentious issue and until we know exactly what offers were on the table we can only go on speculation. Certainly at this point the rumoured Florida deal looks better. It's just that though -- a rumour.

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02-28-2007, 01:37 AM
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Smid
I think they may have rushed him along a bit

And I would've liked someone who can do a little time on the PP and maybe score more than one goal.... not that Smid won't do that sometime in the future.

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02-28-2007, 01:41 AM
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That's the thing though. Because the contract was likely staggered, the term impacted the yearly amount. How Smyth got paid meant little to him, but it meant a lot to EIG. Lowe probably got conflicted with two things:

(a) how to make it fit under the budget for all years of the term
(b) whether Smyth was worth the cap hit at age 36/37

I'd assume Smyth would have been willing to move to a shorter term in exchange for more money. But that would have put the contract over budget. So the sticking point with the term basically impacted the disagreement with the amount.
I think Smyth was stuck on 5 years. I think the Oilers were stuck on 4 years. I certainly think they could have agreed on $$$ if both parties had the same term in mind.

I honestly think that was the extent of it. What Ryan Smyth's value is over the length of the deal (whether 3, 4 or 5 years), and does it make sense. I'm also sure the Oilers would have overpaid slightly in the first 2 years of 3 year deal... because Smyth could provide that value.

Once you get into year 5 though, and at that money. I think that is what ended it. The value just isn't there past year 4.

Quote:
Yeah, the Oilers could have done a lot. Lowe felt he needed to keep Horc, Pisani et al. That's a questionable decision but it's the one that he made.
They don't impact it at all if you go based on a 5 year deal. I certainly don't think it was Pisani and Horc vs Smyth (because there's other players down the pole that you can get rid of first). I think it was all about years 4 and 5, and that the Oilers could handle a decrease in value (in terms of production) in year 4, but they weren't willing to take the risk of year 5, at least not anywhere near the $$$ Smyth was looking at.

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02-28-2007, 01:45 AM
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I think Smyth was stuck on 5 years. I think the Oilers were stuck on 4 years. I certainly think they could have agreed on $$$ if both parties had the same term in mind.

I honestly think that was the extent of it. What Ryan Smyth's value is over the length of the deal (whether 3, 4 or 5 years), and does it make sense. I'm also sure the Oilers would have overpaid slightly in the first 2 years of 3 year deal... because Smyth could provide that value.

Once you get into year 5 though, and at that money. I think that is what ended it. The value just isn't there past year 4.

They don't impact it at all if you go based on a 5 year deal. I certainly don't think it was Pisani and Horc vs Smyth (because there's other players down the pole that you can get rid of first). I think it was all about years 4 and 5, and that the Oilers could handle a decrease in value (in terms of production) in year 4, but they weren't willing to take the risk of year 5, at least not anywhere near the $$$ Smyth was looking at.
Fair enough. See how a small disagreement can lead to an unresolvable conflict?

I think there was disagreement on multiple parts of the contract. And there was just simply no way to work around the budget and the value past year 4 (on that part I agree with you).

I think overpayment with Pisani and Horc had a role to play in this, but I see where you're coming from. Until (if) both sides become more forthcoming about where this all fell apart, I don't think we'll know for sure.

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02-28-2007, 01:47 AM
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I think they may have rushed him along a bit
Nah - he was better off in the NHL than in the AHL. He's going to be an almost great one.

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And I would've liked someone who can do a little time on the PP and maybe score more than one goal.... not that Smid won't do that sometime in the future.
That's where I'd spend my 6 million.

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02-28-2007, 01:51 AM
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That's where I'd spend my 6 million.
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=352103

See?

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