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Potential for a Big Deal This Summer

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Old
02-28-2007, 01:52 AM
  #101
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Bob Stauffer claims the Oilers offered him 27.5M/5 years. So apparently, Lowe did feel he was worth 5.5M in the 5th year.

Smyth wanted 5.75M/year.

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02-28-2007, 01:53 AM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Bob Stauffer claims the Oilers offered him 27.5M/5 years. So apparently, Lowe did feel he was worth 5.5M in the 5th year.

Smyth wanted 5.75M/year.
That is too much - you would agree? Lowe probably thought Meehan was playing chicken, when he found out last minute he wasn't he had to get a deal done because there was no contract being signed today or ever.

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02-28-2007, 01:54 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Bob Stauffer claims the Oilers offered him 27.5M/5 years. So apparently, Lowe did feel he was worth 5.5M in the 5th year.

Smyth wanted 5.75M/year.
Damn. If the EIG budget was really that tight that such a small difference broke the deal, just, damn.

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02-28-2007, 01:56 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Bob Stauffer claims the Oilers offered him 27.5M/5 years. So apparently, Lowe did feel he was worth 5.5M in the 5th year.

Smyth wanted 5.75M/year.
I understand Smyth didn't want to take a hometown discount but I'm really disappointed that he wouldn't come down from $5.75 million if those numbers are correct.

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02-28-2007, 01:56 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Walsher View Post
That is too much - you would agree?
It may very well have been. But if they were willing to go that high then why stop with such a small gap remaining? You could argue that they shouldn't have even offered that much but when you do offer it and the counteroffer is only slightly higher -- why couldn't they make it work?

Unless Smyth was asking for 6 years.

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02-28-2007, 01:56 AM
  #106
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I agree. This will be a very interesting summer. Let's hope Lowe lands some big fish! He's definitely capable of it with the Picks and assets he's racked up lately.

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02-28-2007, 02:00 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
It may very well have been. But if they were willing to go that high then why stop with such a small gap remaining? You could argue that they shouldn't have even offered that much but when you do offer it and the counteroffer is only slightly higher -- why couldn't they make it work?

Unless Smyth was asking for 6 years.
Where does that logic stop? There has to be give and take both ways. To me it was one sided - Lowe started with a 5 year 22 mil offer. Smyth reportedly countered with 5 year 29. 4.4 from Lowe - 5.8 from Smyth. Lowe moved pretty damn good. Smyth moved 50,000. Sorry - take a walk buddy. He will not get that deal on the open market, if he does, that team inherits the problem of having a #2 player as your #1 guy.

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02-28-2007, 02:03 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Walsher View Post
Where does that logic stop? There has to be give and take both ways. To me it was one sided - Lowe started with a 5 year 22 mil offer. Smyth reportedly countered with 5 year 29. 4.4 from Lowe - 5.8 from Smyth. Lowe moved pretty damn good. Smyth moved 50,000. Sorry - take a walk buddy. He will not get that deal on the open market, if he does, that team inherits the problem of having a #2 player as your #1 guy.
That's fair, but my point is that given that Lowe felt he could make that offer, what stopped them collectively from moving to, say, 5.6?

You could make the argument that if that contract had been signed that it wouldn't have been worth it. That's fair.

I'm not really arguing over whether the amount is too high or not. I'm just asking why such a small gap broke the negotiations if the offer was that high anyways? I think there's something else here -- either Smyth wanted more years or he wanted to be paid a lot in that final year.

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02-28-2007, 02:10 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
That's fair, but my point is that given that Lowe felt he could make that offer, what stopped them collectively from moving to, say, 5.6?

You could make the argument that if that contract had been signed that it wouldn't have been worth it. That's fair.

I'm not really arguing over whether the amount is too high or not. I'm just asking why such a small gap broke the negotiations if the offer was that high anyways? I think there's something else here -- either Smyth wanted more years or he wanted to be paid a lot in that final year.
To me 5.5 is ridiculous and Lowe probably felt the same way. I think he basically said enough is enough. We are maxing out at 5.5 take or leave. I think the oilers are better off not signing him to that deal and I think Lowe feels the same way. That is huge dollars for that many year - could you imagine how the funds would break down. If it was 5.5 per - that means he is probably slated to make more than6 in the next couple years - MORE THAN CHRIS PRONGER!!! Pronger has 49 pts and Smyth has 53 in almost the same games. Give me a break Smytty. Know your role in the league, know you ability and skill level and worth. 5.5 until he is 37 is a gift - to turn that down for a few more bucks to me shows more about this process than Lowe not willing to bid hiring out of desperation.

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02-28-2007, 02:29 AM
  #110
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Lecavalier is not going anywhere after the season he just had. Lets not live in fantasy land here.
Shawn I'm not going to say you're wrong because Jay Feester does a HORRIBLE job down there, but in the cap world a smart GM would give it serious thought because of the situation that team is in.....He made a disgusting mistake signing Richards to that extension....giving a guy 7.8 mil a year when he probably would only get 6.5 on the open market, as good as he is he wouldn't have very good value. The return on Lecavalier would be phenominal and that team has other MAJOR needs if they ever want to contend for a Cup again. St.Louis would be a good guy to move, but he's having just as good of a year, seems to be more of a leader, and is cheaper then Vinny. Richards doesn't get you a good return. That leaves Vinny. I'm obviously not saying they'll be shopping him, but if the right deal comes along I think they would....of course in this deal they would need a top end d-man comming back which we can't give them, at least not right now.

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02-28-2007, 02:39 AM
  #111
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Tampa Bay has 20 million locked into the big three for the next two years. Can someone please explain to me why one of them could not be had in the right deal? Tampa needs to spend on their defence and also round out their forwards....one of those guys has to be available. Richards has the biggest contract and IMO will be the hardest to move. Lecavalier seems like the most tradeable asset to me, although St.Louis maybe the guy they try to deal.

Still if I'm Lowe, I offer a package like this:

Horcoff, Greene, Cogliano and a 1st for Lecavalier


then sign Phillips, Hejda, and Hartnell as UFA's

Hartnell Lecavalier Hemsky
Torres Pouliot Lupul
Moreau Stoll Pisani
Jacques Reasoner Thoresen/Nillson
Brodziak

Phillips Smith
Staios Smid
Gilbert Hejda
Roy

Roloson
Dubynk
Similar to my line of thinking, I think Horcoff was only a 1st line centre when Smyth was on his wing. The emergence of Stoll and Pouliot, both who are pretty responsible defensively, and more creative offensively (arguably) means Lowe can't justify that price tag for a 2nd line center.

Ideally, we go out and sign 1 or 2 fwd UFA's, make a trade for an improvement on defense, and sign another d-man as a UFA. Resign Hejda, but not Sykora. I also think itwould be wise to sign or trade for a veteran winger. WE NEED TO TRADE AWAY SOME OFF OUR BOTTOM 6 AND MID-PROSPECT DEPTH!!

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02-28-2007, 02:42 AM
  #112
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I'll have to check the list again, but Markov would look pretty nice here. However, I realize the odds aren't in our favour to attract any of the biggest UFAs, so it will be interesting to see what Lowe ends up doing. We've got alot of pieces to do something big this summer. It's actually pretty exciting!

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02-28-2007, 02:55 AM
  #113
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Things look considerably different if Smyth and Lowe had an understanding. What if they do re-sign Smyth over the Summer, and the Islanders are out everything they gave up? If the difference was only a few hundred grand a year, I really don't understand Lowe letting him go. But if he did so because he was writing this season off and he saw it as a way to have Smyth back, plus pick up some prospects, then you would have to hand it to him for improving the team.

Otherwise, this is a PR fiasco and I could see it hurting the Oilers attendance and fan base.

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02-28-2007, 03:29 AM
  #114
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having all those extra picks would really make it easy for us to sign an RFA to an offer sheet. Pitkanen, Horton, Ballard, Suter, Jackman, Parise, Vanek, and Volchenkov would all look pretty good here.

A guy Edmonton should target next summer would be Phaneuf. I can guarantee he'd want to play here. On top of that it would put more pressure on the Flames, as they'll have plenty of problems during that offseason. If they decide to pony up for Dion, they'll be losing at least one of Kipper, Iggy, or Regehr.

Spice up the BOA a bit

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02-28-2007, 03:51 AM
  #115
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A guy Edmonton should target next summer would be Phaneuf. I can guarantee he'd want to play here. On top of that it would put more pressure on the Flames, as they'll have plenty of problems during that offseason. If they decide to pony up for Dion, they'll be losing at least one of Kipper, Iggy, or Regehr.

Spice up the BOA a bit
Absolutely - this is a classic offensive mgmt move - either we get the player we want at a decent price (a bid of 4.99 mil would cost 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd) or it forces CAL to pay more than they want for Pheneuf and it could cost them another player like Kipper, Iggy, or Regehr.

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02-28-2007, 04:01 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Damn. If the EIG budget was really that tight that such a small difference broke the deal, just, damn.
The thing is, if the Oilers already felt they were overpaying at 5.5 million, then an extra 250k just makes it that much more of an overpayment.




As for Lecavalier, while it's true that his season here will likely keep him in Tampa, it could make someone like Richards (who, until this stellar season by Lecavalier, I always preferred) available.

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02-28-2007, 06:13 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
I'd prefer to just re-sign Smyth in July and move other guys like Pisani.
And what pay Smyth $6M a year? Smyth has already indicated he will not take the hometown discount and the main reason why the Oilers wanted to sign him before July 1 was because he would not have a chance to test the Free Agent market.

Smyth is not coming back. And after reading Tencer's blog and if it's all true, I'm glad he isn't coming back.

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02-28-2007, 07:23 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Bob Stauffer claims the Oilers offered him 27.5M/5 years. So apparently, Lowe did feel he was worth 5.5M in the 5th year.

Smyth wanted 5.75M/year.
I think it's pretty clear that Lowe offered that with a whole lot of pain involved, and there's no way he'd have stretched it further. Personally I don't think Smytty is worth a cent over $5M, so we might as well do what Lowe did. At least now we got something out of it instead of losing him for nothing in the summer.

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02-28-2007, 09:35 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by The Human Torch View Post

sure, we've got potential for a big deal this summer, but i'm sure you'll forgive me if i say "i'll belive it when i see it."
Completely Agree!!!!!!!!!

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02-28-2007, 01:13 PM
  #120
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Tnings could be worse

as in the summer might pass without this big name acquistion that Lowe says he wants.

Of all the assets he's acquired for all this bluster there's been ONE quanity for quality trade. ONE. There are totally legit reasons for UFA's not to come here, ie Spacek's citing of travel concerns comes to mind, and then there are guys that likely won't come over even if you offer a massive overpay and when has the EIG ever been known to do that.

For all the Lowe guys here, and I'm trying to be civil because you know I'm on the other side of the fence, don't you just feel like he keeps putting stuff off and never delivers and don't get you get sick of the EIG not spending more? If the cap goes up this season and the EIG stands pat and the '08 season begins without this magical superstar, won't you wish that Lowe budged 250 or 300 K a season?

Is there a line for you guys? I'm just asking.

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02-28-2007, 04:11 PM
  #121
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For all the Lowe guys here, and I'm trying to be civil because you know I'm on the other side of the fence, don't you just feel like he keeps putting stuff off and never delivers and don't get you get sick of the EIG not spending more? If the cap goes up this season and the EIG stands pat and the '08 season begins without this magical superstar, won't you wish that Lowe budged 250 or 300 K a season?

Is there a line for you guys? I'm just asking.
I don't know, I thought he delivered pretty effectively for the 2005-2006 season.

Certainly he can be criticized for some poorer decisions since then like inflated contracts. However, he certainly did dip into the FA market, and we all thought that the group of forwards was pretty solid. But then Lupul and Torres did not deliver as expected. Moreau got hurt, leaving a big gap on our third line. Bergeron and company kept coughing up the puck. Horcoff had a rough start (though he's picked it up since the new year).

What I do agree is that the most significant error Lowe made was his lack of serious negotiations with our FAs over the offseason. Perhaps he felt like rewarding players for a fantastic Cup run. Justified, but most of the salaries were too high. Besides Pisani, none were disproportionally high, but high nonetheless.

But do you really feel that paying our other players fair compensation and significantly overpaying Ryan Smyth would really make a difference in the long run? The net result of overpayment of any contract is too much salary tied up for the entire team. Lowe probably realized his mistake and decided that Smyth would only be able to get what he felt was fair and don't tell me 5.5M was not fair. It was more than fair.

Lowe (hopefully) recognized that if we're to compete, we're going to need more than just Ryan Smyth. It's not about any one player's skill, popularity or work ethic. It's about the whole team's contributions. He probably realized that if we signed Smyth, that would leave very little leeway to make the necessary adjustments in the off-season.

Answer me this: would you be happy with the team the way it was before the trade deadline? From what I could gather on this now extremely heated and divided board, the resounding majority would say no. No puck-moving defenseman we cry. Not enough offensive weapons or effort we fume.

But even if we got say Stuart and Guerin and re-signed Smyth, maybe we'd make the playoffs. Maybe we'd even give it another good run. But in the end, we would have given up a lot of assets (a couple of roster players likely and some prospects/picks). Chances are, they would have left. Chances are, we'd all be moaning about how Smyth's bloated salary is eating that extra 1-2M we could have used to get a great defenseman for next year. And chances are that we'd be back to the position we were in at the beginning of this season minus those roster players we would have traded and moaning about how the Oilers still look like a bubble team.

I think the biggest issue regarding the fans here is with change. It's hard to picture the Oilers with a new identity and everyone has come to associate Smyth with the Oilers. I understand that and I'm still somewhat subdued and shocked over the trade. But on the other hand, why spend so much money on a guy who's good but has never really taken us all the way when we could try to spend money on guys who can? Is Smyth really 50% better than Hemsky now or in 5 years? I would welcome him back if he's willing to take a more reasonable amount, but until then, let's start looking forward and hoping that this is the start of something good in the Oilers franchise with fewer overpayments.

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02-28-2007, 04:25 PM
  #122
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If the cap goes up this season and the EIG stands pat and the '08 season begins without this magical superstar, won't you wish that Lowe budged 250 or 300 K a season?
The issue with that is we don't know how much he had already budged.

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02-28-2007, 06:36 PM
  #123
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Since this thread is supposed to be about who we could get that will help this team get to the playoffs next year I decided to weed through some of the players that will be available either by UFA status or even may be in there last year of contract or potential trade bait. Furthermore, I have included players that are RFA next year that the Oil could hypothetically give an offer sheet to. Note: offer sheets are considered bad business practice by GM's. If Lowe where to do this it would have to be for someone who is worth taking the criticism for.

Lecavalier - Trade offer? If Tampa decides that the 3 players all making 7 mill a season is not cutting it they may entertain offers. However it's more likely that they would move St. Louis...

Pitkanen - RFA next year - offer sheet? Damn straight, let's do it. 25% chance

Redden - next year will be his UFA year in waiting - Trade offer? Depends on how Ottawa does in the playoffs this year.

Phillips - UFA Highly possible we get this guy. 50% chance

Volchenkov - RFA next year - offer sheet? Other players are more likely to one then this guy but he might not cost as much in draft picks.

Preissing - UFA, I doubt it because of his size...

Jokinen - Trade offer? UFA Highly possible we make a pitch for this guy. 35% chance

Horton - RFA next year, offer sheet? How about this for a scam, offer sheet Horton to a high number and wait for Florida to match then offer a trade for Jokinen that they can't refuse. 1.2% chance

Shanahan - UFA, the Rangers will go for Smyth in the off season. 4 mill for this guy is a steal. 5% chance, I'd love to see Lowe sign someone his age...

Souray - UFA, he's going to California. 5% chance...

Markov - UFA, a dream. The guy that offsets almost all the bad crap that's happened to this team in the past year. This is who we should pursue like rabid dogs, however we will phail to succeed and he will resign with his beloved Habs. 35% chance...

Blake - UFA, as in Jason Blake of the Islanders. Oh God please no... 35% chance if he does not sign on the Island.

Briere - UFA, I see this being the guy the Sabre choose to sign. 10% chance...

Drury - UFA, will likely go to Philly. However his defensive game will fuel MacT's man crush on him and may convince Lowe to get into a ridiculous bidding war. 45% chance...

Gomez - UFA, The Oil like this guy but not his size. If they don't cut a deal for the guy they really want then I think he might be a valid "B" option. 20% chance...

Rafalski - UFA, will resign with NJ. 2.5% chance...

Jackman RFA next year - offer sheet? Pitkanen would get one before this guy. 0.5% chance...

Thornton - next year will be his UFA year in waiting - Trade offer? If SJ traded him I'd eat my shorts but the Oil may try to make a pitch. 2% chance...

Marleau - next year will be his UFA year in waiting - Trade offer? Oh, this might be doable, I don't know if SJ will be able to afford his contract. Also let's face it, this guy deserves a shot at being a number 1 center. 25% chance...

Hannan - UFA next year, Oilers will be interested. Highly interested. 50% chance...

Naslund - next year will be his UFA year in waiting - Trade offer? I find it hard to believe that the Oil would not give Smyth what he wanted on the basis that he overachieved this year and yet offer the same type of contract to Naslund who underachieved this year. 2.5% chance...

Salo - UFA, Highly likely they make a pitch and get him next year. 65% chance...

Kariya - UFA, wow, Hemsky to Kariya, Kariya shoots, Scoooorrreessss. 25% chance...

Forsberg - UFA, hahahhahahahahahahha 3% chance...

Timonen - UFA, Will likely sign with Philly since his brother plays on the Flyers. However I'd say the Oil would still attemp to pursue him. 15% chance...

Datsyuk - UFA, depends on how much he wants but if within reason I could see him signing a one year deal to play with Hemsky and show the world that he's a superstar or not. 7% chance...

Sydor - UFA, How about that for a pickup? I'd do it. 20% chance...

Sakic - UFA, neeeeeevvvver gonna happen. 4% chance...

Liles next year will be his UFA year in waiting - Trade offer?
Tons of rumors seemed to indicate that the Aves would move this guy. Why I have no idea. But I want him. 35% chance...

Iginla - next year will be his UFA year in waiting, Trade offer? This is not likely. He'll resign in Calgary and if he didn't he'd go all other types of places other then Edmonton. Plus what do we need another RW for? -5% chance...

Stuart - UFA, After the showing he's putting on in Cow Town. Nope. 8% chance...

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