HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

The ripple effect

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-28-2007, 04:04 PM
  #1
The Rage
Registered User
 
The Rage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Stamford Bridge
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,792
vCash: 500
The ripple effect

Mudcrutch brough up a good point on his site (mc79hockey.com) about losing Smyth: the ripple effect.

Check out Desjardin's opposition difficulty rankings:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/qual_comp.html

How many offensive superstars are ahead of Smyth on that list? How many of them limit goals against as well? So Smyth is sixth in the league in goals/game since the lock-out, despite playing some seriously tough minutes, AND he doesn't bleed goals against (see Rick Nash). What's going to happen when every other forward on the team has to play tougher minutes? Lower scoring totals team wide, and likely higher goals against as well.

Also: Jason Smith is awesome. 10th toughest minutes in the league and he holds his head above water.

The Rage is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:18 PM
  #2
canadave
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Nova Scotia, Earth
Country: United Nations
Posts: 888
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
Mudcrutch brough up a good point on his site (mc79hockey.com) about losing Smyth: the ripple effect.

Check out Desjardin's opposition difficulty rankings:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/qual_comp.html

How many offensive superstars are ahead of Smyth on that list? How many of them limit goals against as well? So Smyth is sixth in the league in goals/game since the lock-out, despite playing some seriously tough minutes, AND he doesn't bleed goals against (see Rick Nash). What's going to happen when every other forward on the team has to play tougher minutes? Lower scoring totals team wide, and likely higher goals against as well.

Also: Jason Smith is awesome. 10th toughest minutes in the league and he holds his head above water.
While I grasp the concept of that website's statistical examination, I'm not sure I fully buy into it. How do they exactly measure the "difficulty rating" a player has to deal with? Even if Smith has to play against a tough opposing *team*, it's not possible to measure how often he plays against a tough opposing *player* like, in the example the website uses, Jagr. "Tough minutes" sounds to me like a difficult concept to adequately quantify on a per-player basis.

Besides which, I find it extremely hard to believe that Jason Smith is 10th best on any list at all this season. He's clearly had a bad year this year compared to last year.

canadave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:21 PM
  #3
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
Mudcrutch brough up a good point on his site (mc79hockey.com) about losing Smyth: the ripple effect.

Check out Desjardin's opposition difficulty rankings:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/qual_comp.html

How many offensive superstars are ahead of Smyth on that list? How many of them limit goals against as well? So Smyth is sixth in the league in goals/game since the lock-out, despite playing some seriously tough minutes, AND he doesn't bleed goals against (see Rick Nash). What's going to happen when every other forward on the team has to play tougher minutes? Lower scoring totals team wide, and likely higher goals against as well.

Also: Jason Smith is awesome. 10th toughest minutes in the league and he holds his head above water.
The fact that Smyth produces in a very tough environment should be taken into account in terms of his dollar value. However, it still does not follow that he is worth 5.75-6 million dollars a season. Feel free to make an argument else wise.

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:22 PM
  #4
RiversQ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,714
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by canadave View Post
Besides which, I find it extremely hard to believe that Jason Smith is 10th best on any list at all this season. He's clearly had a bad year this year compared to last year.
Smith was even at 5V5 going into last night's game. He finished last year at -6.

RiversQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:23 PM
  #5
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by canadave View Post
While I grasp the concept of that website's statistical examination, I'm not sure I fully buy into it. How do they exactly measure the "difficulty rating" a player has to deal with? Even if Smith has to play against a tough opposing *team*, it's not possible to measure how often he plays against a tough opposing *player* like, in the example the website uses, Jagr. "Tough minutes" sounds to me like a difficult concept to adequately quantify on a per-player basis.

Besides which, I find it extremely hard to believe that Jason Smith is 10th best on any list at all this season. He's clearly had a bad year this year compared to last year.
His formula is simple, read the explanation if you want a better understanding of it. The stats are very indicative of results (they basically are results), and the quality of competition variable is based on the outscoring ability of the guys you are out there against. Smyth outscores outscorers, which is a very difficult thing to do.

As for Jason Smith, he is doing extremely well in a very tough environment. The bashing he takes on this forum is not founded in actual results; rather, it's based on a skewed perception of what a #1-2 defenseman is supposed to be.

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:24 PM
  #6
RiversQ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,714
vCash: 500
Another great thing on that site: Check out the PIM +/- stuff - basically PIM drawn and taken by Smyth and/or his linemates while he's on the ice. Smyth was 9th in the league by that measure as of Feb 18th. Pretty amazing. Again considering his opposition.

RiversQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:27 PM
  #7
canadave
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Nova Scotia, Earth
Country: United Nations
Posts: 888
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiversQ View Post
Smith was even at 5V5 going into last night's game. He finished last year at -6.
That's incredible I'm seriously shocked at that (and I take back the word "clearly" in my post). But I still really don't think he's played all that well, to be honest.

canadave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:42 PM
  #8
oildesi99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 175
vCash: 500
honestly, what the hell are "tough minutes" you've mentioned that before when comparing smyth to weight. Yah he penalty kills and plays powerplay...the more minutes you get ultimately the more chances to score you're gonna get (yah i understand that the more minutes also mean more chances to be scored on).

Cuz thats bogus, in my opinion tough minutes are raffi torres minutes with the oilers (not this season) only playing 10-14 min a game and get 20+ goals a season.

oildesi99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:46 PM
  #9
dawgbone
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,104
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to dawgbone Send a message via MSN to dawgbone
Quote:
Originally Posted by oildesi99 View Post
honestly, what the hell are "tough minutes" you've mentioned that before when comparing smyth to weight. Yah he penalty kills and plays powerplay...the more minutes you get ultimately the more chances to score you're gonna get (yah i understand that the more minutes also mean more chances to be scored on).

Cuz thats bogus, in my opinion tough minutes are raffi torres minutes with the oilers (not this season) only playing 10-14 min a game and get 20+ goals a season.
Tough minutes refers to who you are out against. The PP is not tough minutes. The PK isn't considered.

It's whether you are out there against Joe Thornton or Patrick Rissmiller(sp?). Joe Sakic or Wolski.

If you continually line up agaisnt the first guy mentioned, those minutes are a lot harder than the 2nd guys mentioned.

__________________
TheSpecialist - MacT thinks he was that good of a hockey player when in actuality he was no better then a Louie Debrusk.
dawgbone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 05:56 PM
  #10
oildesi99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 175
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone View Post
Tough minutes refers to who you are out against. The PP is not tough minutes. The PK isn't considered.

It's whether you are out there against Joe Thornton or Patrick Rissmiller(sp?). Joe Sakic or Wolski.

If you continually line up agaisnt the first guy mentioned, those minutes are a lot harder than the 2nd guys mentioned.
and i understand that, but how can buddy determine who smyth is against that by looking at stats from a website.

oildesi99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:06 PM
  #11
RiversQ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,714
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by canadave View Post
That's incredible I'm seriously shocked at that (and I take back the word "clearly" in my post). But I still really don't think he's played all that well, to be honest.
His quarterly breakdown is as follows:

G1-G20 +8/-16

G21-G41 +22/-14

G42-G62 +13/-13

That's 62 games and +43/-43 with the 4th quarter still to come. It's going to be a really bad quarter though because the Oilers won't have the horses in front of him.

RiversQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:07 PM
  #12
RiversQ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,714
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by oildesi99 View Post
and i understand that, but how can buddy determine who smyth is against that by looking at stats from a website.
All the necessary information is on NHL.com. Shift charts, event sheets, game sheets, etc. That's all the raw data you need.

RiversQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:10 PM
  #13
copperandblue
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10,724
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiversQ View Post
All the necessary information is on NHL.com. Shift charts, event sheets, game sheets, etc. That's all the raw data you need.
Which is dubious information at best and like they say when it comes to statistical analysis "garbage in = garbage out"

copperandblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:12 PM
  #14
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
Which is dubious information at best and like they say when it comes to statistical analysis "garbage in = garbage out"
Clever.

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:15 PM
  #15
copperandblue
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10,724
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Clever.
You dispute my assertion?

copperandblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:19 PM
  #16
RiversQ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,714
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
You dispute my assertion?
I do. Prove it.

RiversQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:23 PM
  #17
copperandblue
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10,724
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiversQ View Post
I do. Prove it.
Can you spot the error?

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...7/SC020912.HTM

copperandblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:32 PM
  #18
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
That's not where the data comes from.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...7/TV020954.HTM

Cross referenced with

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...7/TH020954.HTM

It's all done via scripts.

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:36 PM
  #19
t0mf00lery
Registered User
 
t0mf00lery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Barrie, Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,857
vCash: 500
While I see the merit to this hypothesis, one thing it does not take in to consideration (because it cannot be calculated by statistics at this point) is the possibility of some of the effect of every other forward on the team having to play tougher minutes may be offset by the continued development of some of the younger guys.

One could make the argument that if this were to happen, they themselves would become tougher opposition to play against and thus potentially offset some of the effect. There is the distinct possibility that this could be the case with players such as Pouliot who are still going upwards in the learning curve of being a responsible player.

The amount that it could potentially offset the effect though, obviously is directly related to the level of improvement in the younger players who may shoulder a portion of Smyth's minutes.

IMO, in a season where the play-offs were unlikely though, it can't hurt to try and expedite the development of guys such as Pouliot even if it does potentially result in temporarily lowering the strength of the team 5v5. I think the long-term benefits of such a move would easily offset the short-term drawbacks.

t0mf00lery is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:42 PM
  #20
copperandblue
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10,724
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
That's not where the data comes from.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...7/TV020954.HTM

Cross referenced with

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...7/TH020954.HTM

It's all done via scripts.
Which correlates exactly with the shift chart I posted, which clearly has atleast one error.

copperandblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:49 PM
  #21
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
Which correlates exactly with the shift chart I posted, which clearly has atleast one error.
Even if there is "at least one error", it still doesn't follow to reason that all statistics are garbage. In fact, I don't think it's a stretch to say the information on the chart you posted is nearly all correct.

Fair point, statistics aren't perfect. Does that mean they have no value? Does a minor error turn the majority of the information to ****? Is the information on Desjardins site not supported by what your eyes see?

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 06:55 PM
  #22
copperandblue
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10,724
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Even if there is "at least one error", it still doesn't follow to reason that all statistics are garbage. In fact, I don't think it's a stretch to say the information on the chart you posted is nearly all correct.

OK, fair enough, statistics aren't perfect. Does that mean they have no value?
Sure they have value but they have to be taken with a grain of salt because finding 1 error when looking at a type of statistic such as a shift chart is suggestive that there could be many more.

You can't possibly verify all of the shift data, it's simply unrealistic, and if you are finding errors based on the few moments in a game that you actually can confirm then I think it's fair to say there are many more that you can't confirm. This isn't the first time I've come across this type of stuff because I have questioned the reliability of the data in the past, it just happens to be the most recent one I recall being obvious.

And that doesn't begin to get into such things as shots on goals, hits, giveaways, block shots and so on where every arena seems to track based on different standards.

copperandblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 07:01 PM
  #23
imkinger
Registered User
 
imkinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,040
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
Sure they have value but they have to be taken with a grain of salt because finding 1 error when looking at a type of statistic such as a shift chart is suggestive that there could be many more.
I never suggested they shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. I objected to your assertion that they are "garbage out".

Quote:
You can't possibly verify all of the shift data, it's simply unrealistic, and if you are finding errors based on the few moments in a game that you actually can confirm then I think it's fair to say there are many more that you can't confirm. This isn't the first time I've come across this type of stuff because I have questioned the reliability of the data in the past, it just happens to be the most recent one I recall being obvious.
Fine and dandy. However my point is that for the most part shift charts are reliable and thus for the most part Desjardins findings are reliable. Never mind the fact that they re-enforce what I see with my eyes (Horcoff, Stoll, Smith, Hejda line up against the opponents best).

Quote:
And that doesn't begin to get into such things as shots on goals, hits, giveaways, block shots and so on where every arena seems to track based on different standards.
None of which are part of Desjardins numbers. The RTSS stats have very little value, no doubt. There is actually a rule that they can't be used in contract negotiations. But to lump them in the same category as shift charts is a mistake, sure human error can occur in determining who just jumped on the ice; however, unlike the RTSS stats, shift charts are not subject to interpretation. You're either on the ice or you aren't. Again, error can occur, but not the same kind of error (one that occurs to a much lesser extent).

imkinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 07:08 PM
  #24
alanschu
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Edmonton, Alberta
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,224
vCash: 500
Since I missed that game, what IS the error?

alanschu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2007, 07:50 PM
  #25
The Rage
Registered User
 
The Rage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Stamford Bridge
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,792
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
Sure they have value but they have to be taken with a grain of salt because finding 1 error when looking at a type of statistic such as a shift chart is suggestive that there could be many more.

You can't possibly verify all of the shift data, it's simply unrealistic, and if you are finding errors based on the few moments in a game that you actually can confirm then I think it's fair to say there are many more that you can't confirm. This isn't the first time I've come across this type of stuff because I have questioned the reliability of the data in the past, it just happens to be the most recent one I recall being obvious.

And that doesn't begin to get into such things as shots on goals, hits, giveaways, block shots and so on where every arena seems to track based on different standards.
Over a large sample size, you would expect small errors to cancel themselves out. I don't think the stats you mentioned are calculated in the toughness of minutes.

The Rage is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:26 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.