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The ripple effect

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Old
03-03-2007, 02:22 AM
  #76
alanschu
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Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
Who is being a hyprocrite?
NOt a reference to hypocrisy, but more just a comment so you know it's to you, but I enjoyed seeing your comment in the newspaper

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Old
03-03-2007, 10:15 AM
  #77
Vagabond
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
I don't think there is one person on this board that doesn't appreciate his value NOW that he is gone.

BUT... there were tonnes of posters that argued against signing him because and I can just go by the opinions in some of the many threads. Here is a sampling.

-There were much better players that could be had for 5 million (I argued with many a poster about that one) The majority seemed to jump on that bandwagon.

-Ryan Smyth doesn't create any offence (all he does is stand in front of the net and get points), A few jumped on that bandwagon.

-A many page thread, very recent (after he had a game where he didn't have any points) showing why Smyth wasn't worth the money and obviously wasn't the face of the franchise and certainly shouldn't be signed for 5 million.

So judging by your posts there must be a lot of dummies on this board but really I don't believe that.

The truth is that a lot of posters just jump on the most popular opinion and few seem to want to be a lone wolf with a differing opinion so they just don't say anything.

Not to sound like I'm deserving credit or anything, but I was one of the few mohicans.

Although I could not post much the last few days and during the deadline, I was on my way to Calgary of all places for business reasons. What a place to be I tell ya when Smyth gets traded! I was wearing my Oiler jersey all the way down in hopes of Lowe and Smyth coming to terms.. unfortunately, the opposite happened and many people in Calgary busted out a few jokes that were not funny.

Anyhow.. back to topic here. These statistics really are a great thing, eventhough I'm not so much a stat person. Stats do not lie, but they don't always cover everything that goes on in a game as everbody should and probably already know. For most of what's important in a game, the stats do really cover the jist of everything and through saying that; these stats should open a flock of oiler fans eyes. These stats are a good indicative way to justify a players worth. If you happen to look-up a player that does not show-up on the score sheet and wonder why that certain player gets what he gets, I urge you to take a peak at these stats. Why the hell is Pisani making 2.5mill? *looks at stats* AH, thats why.. *tugs on a pathetic patch of chin hair* Oh, so Pisani does actually contribute to the team other than scoring 10-20 goals.. interesting. For serious though, these stats are very accurate as has been shown clearly enough throughout this thread.

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Old
03-03-2007, 11:24 AM
  #78
YKOil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
So where was all this statistical analysis when all most everyone was arguing against signing Smyth for 5 million a year before the season started. Mine was a pretty lonely opinion. Guess I was right ALL along!

I was making those same arguments and most were all calling me nuts.

Now all of a sudden we should have signed Smyth to a 5.5 million dollar, five year deal, which almost everyone was against too!

Way to stick to your guns people! It is actually quite amusing and predictable to see all the hypocrisy!
Careful where you point that thing. The statistical analysis has always been there ha101. And it has always been supported by the same people. mc, mcg (igor), matts (dennis), riv, myself and others. I know this because I was/have been around for it all. The stats work on this stuff is, surprisingly, relatively new - at least on these boards.

I think it kind of started with Matts (a long time ago) - he would rant and rave about something going on on the ice and some of it struck a chord with guys like vic and mc. They started to look at numbers (it was particularly interesting watching mc teach himself stats as it wasn't his natural area of expertise/study) and hence the discussion of outscoring and tough minutes became de riguer on these boards. I still remember when the numbers for Forsberg started to come out - even those who knew how good he was anecdotally didn't know just HOW good he really was/is.

(I am not exactly sure where gabe's work fits into the tapestry - others became aware of his work far sooner than I did - but I have to say it is amazing stuff.)

My contributions at the time were to provide logic support, critique the EIG's accounting and revenue kool-aid, rant and rave about trades like everyone else and to, every now and then, point out undervalued players from other teams (I believe I was 'on' to how good guys like Brad Lukowich and Frantisek Kaberle are looong before the pack - I was even pointing out the Carney's and Weinrich's of the world though that was mostly while I was a regular at Oilfans).

Anyways, point is, the stats guys have always been around. Sometimes it gets tiring though.

It is one thing to discuss these topics with people who are unfamiliar with the concepts, can dispute the concepts with their own, equal or better material or can add to the work. It is a whole OTHER thing when people can't be bothered to look past the EIG's kool-aid or the simple counting stats.

It was because of the Smyth trade that I finally started my own blog. Smyth may not be an ELITE talent - but he is much better than very good. He is right up there with the Alfredsson's of the world and he compares favorably with guys like Brad Richards. And we could have had him (Smyth) for millions less. And we don't have him. We don't have him because most people have no clue as to what an elite player actually looks like.

It is to cry.

They look at Stoll's numbers from 05-06 and say he HAS to be worth almost as much as a guy like Horcoff or Smyth. Me, I look at a guy in a contract year, playing soft EV minutes, getting prime PP minutes and playing on the strongest Oiler team in decades and I think there is no way he is worth 2.2 million a year. I remember when one **** pointed out Stoll's face-off prowess - then someone pointed out that it was mostly against the 3rd rate guys.

It is to laugh.

Why do I want to trade Stoll? - because based off this last contract his next one will take him to dollars his stats won't justify.

sigh

I am ranting now. I will stop.

p.s. my history of things may be off a bit here and there but I do think it is mostly correct. feel free to correct or ignore as you will

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Old
03-03-2007, 11:42 AM
  #79
momentai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil View Post
Why do I want to trade Stoll? - because based off this last contract his next one will take him to dollars his stats won't justify.
Stoll hasn't been all that bad this year when he was playing. He was pretty much a disaster seeing tougher minutes earlier in the season but I thought he played much more effectively with Torres/Pisani after a couple months. Sample size is small yes... but at least he's no longer putting up pts while being sheltered.

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Old
03-03-2007, 12:26 PM
  #80
taternuts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil View Post

They look at Stoll's numbers from 05-06 and say he HAS to be worth almost as much as a guy like Horcoff or Smyth. Me, I look at a guy in a contract year, playing soft EV minutes, getting prime PP minutes and playing on the strongest Oiler team in decades and I think there is no way he is worth 2.2 million a year. I remember when one **** pointed out Stoll's face-off prowess - then someone pointed out that it was mostly against the 3rd rate guys.

It is to laugh.

Why do I want to trade Stoll? - because based off this last contract his next one will take him to dollars his stats won't justify.
Player..........Cap Avg....Rel+-...Rel 5v5 Opp
Stoll, Jarret...2,200,000....0.38.......0.0311

Stoll plays against players who generally out score their opposition, and he outscores them. When you consider Stoll's PP production, I think he's full value for his current contract.

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Old
03-03-2007, 01:21 PM
  #81
LawnDemon
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I still support the Smyth trade. The Oilers were not going to make the playoffs this year and we got a good return for a pending UFA. I still maintain that 5.5 a year for 5 years is WAY too much.

I have no doubts that Smyth is a very valuable player and will be for the next 2 or 3 years but that contract would have crippled the Oilers in years 4 and 5.

Lowe made the right choice and I still stand by that.

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Old
03-03-2007, 06:36 PM
  #82
Matts
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Hey YK

Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil View Post
Careful where you point that thing. The statistical analysis has always been there ha101. And it has always been supported by the same people. mc, mcg (igor), matts (dennis), riv, myself and others. I know this because I was/have been around for it all. The stats work on this stuff is, surprisingly, relatively new - at least on these boards.

I think it kind of started with Matts (a long time ago) - he would rant and rave about something going on on the ice and some of it struck a chord with guys like vic and mc. They started to look at numbers (it was particularly interesting watching mc teach himself stats as it wasn't his natural area of expertise/study) and hence the discussion of outscoring and tough minutes became de riguer on these boards. I still remember when the numbers for Forsberg started to come out - even those who knew how good he was anecdotally didn't know just HOW good he really was/is.

(I am not exactly sure where gabe's work fits into the tapestry - others became aware of his work far sooner than I did - but I have to say it is amazing stuff.)

My contributions at the time were to provide logic support, critique the EIG's accounting and revenue kool-aid, rant and rave about trades like everyone else and to, every now and then, point out undervalued players from other teams (I believe I was 'on' to how good guys like Brad Lukowich and Frantisek Kaberle are looong before the pack - I was even pointing out the Carney's and Weinrich's of the world though that was mostly while I was a regular at Oilfans).

Anyways, point is, the stats guys have always been around. Sometimes it gets tiring though.

It is one thing to discuss these topics with people who are unfamiliar with the concepts, can dispute the concepts with their own, equal or better material or can add to the work. It is a whole OTHER thing when people can't be bothered to look past the EIG's kool-aid or the simple counting stats.

It was because of the Smyth trade that I finally started my own blog. Smyth may not be an ELITE talent - but he is much better than very good. He is right up there with the Alfredsson's of the world and he compares favorably with guys like Brad Richards. And we could have had him (Smyth) for millions less. And we don't have him. We don't have him because most people have no clue as to what an elite player actually looks like.

It is to cry.

They look at Stoll's numbers from 05-06 and say he HAS to be worth almost as much as a guy like Horcoff or Smyth. Me, I look at a guy in a contract year, playing soft EV minutes, getting prime PP minutes and playing on the strongest Oiler team in decades and I think there is no way he is worth 2.2 million a year. I remember when one **** pointed out Stoll's face-off prowess - then someone pointed out that it was mostly against the 3rd rate guys.

It is to laugh.

Why do I want to trade Stoll? - because based off this last contract his next one will take him to dollars his stats won't justify.

sigh

I am ranting now. I will stop.

p.s. my history of things may be off a bit here and there but I do think it is mostly correct. feel free to correct or ignore as you will

Yes it has all come along hasn't it? I'm pretty sure that we all "met" over at OF and everyone's branched out from there.

Regarding 16, he was a guy I promised to keep an eye on this year because I was not impressed with him last playoffs at all. He basically did nothing after the first round and him-83-Sammy saw an awful lot of soft time last year in the playoffs. You had the 94-10-plus whomever line plus 14-Peca-34 carrying the mail and then the other guys on the 3rd line playing against Marcel Goc's line and that crowd and Stoll did very little with it.

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Old
03-03-2007, 06:40 PM
  #83
momentai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts View Post
Regarding 16, he was a guy I promised to keep an eye on this year because I was not impressed with him last playoffs at all. He basically did nothing after the first round and him-83-Sammy saw an awful lot of soft time last year in the playoffs. You had the 94-10-plus whomever line plus 14-Peca-34 carrying the mail and then the other guys on the 3rd line playing against Marcel Goc's line and that crowd and Stoll did very little with it.
Well, I think most people hopefully understand that Stoll was being sheltered like crazy last season and the Oilers certainly had the horses to do it.

This year, though, Stoll has been better. He had a stretch with Torres and Pisani that were just gangbusters at ES facing pretty tough competition to boot. Rough start for Stoll, yes, but he showed for a stretch this season that he's a much better player than last season. And that can only be a good thing if the whole concussion issue can alleviate itself.

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Old
03-05-2007, 01:15 AM
  #84
choppystride
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Hmmm...nevermind...think I might have misunderstood the metric's definition.


Last edited by choppystride: 03-05-2007 at 11:38 AM.
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