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How far can we realistically fall?

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Old
03-01-2007, 10:58 PM
  #1
s7ark
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How far can we realistically fall?

Right now, we have 66 points. And have a bunch more games against very hard western cup contending teams and another 6 game road trip. Of our 17 remaining games, only 4 are against teams below us in the standings, and 2 of those games are St.Louis, who is only 1 point back. And we just traded away the only guy on the team scoring all year.

We are set for a plummet.

We are ahead of
Boston - 65
Florida - 65
St. Louis - 65
Washington - 60
Phoenix - 57
Columbus - 55
Chicago - 55
LA - 52
Philly - 44

What do you guys think? How far can we fall?

I don't know if anything below Washington is too realistic. That seems a reasonable place we could fall to.

Maybe Phoenix as well, but that could be pushing it.

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03-01-2007, 11:01 PM
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TheDarkestOne
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I see a top 5 pick.

Does Jason Bonsignore have a brother?


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03-01-2007, 11:02 PM
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We need an official thread where we keep track of exactly what pick we currently have and how far we need to drop to get a better pick - who is up to the challenge?

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03-01-2007, 11:03 PM
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McDeepika
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Wow we can seriously get into the top 7 for the draft. That would be great for us. Maybe we even win a lottery and move into the top 3?

I know many here think there is no true superstar, but every draft has a superstar even if it doesn't look like one at the time. A top 3-9 pick gives Lowe and co and good chance to find one.

In a perfect world we draft 7th, 15th, 22nd. That gives us all kinds of options to do things. Likely we will draft 10th, 16th, 27th. Still not bad

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03-01-2007, 11:06 PM
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OilRick
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I seriously think that Pheonix will over take us. They're playing with alot of emotion selling a bunch of their better players, and we suck, so I'm highly optimistic that we'll see a top 5 draft pick. Unfortunately it's a weaker draft, with few franchise players, but that's just our luck.

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03-01-2007, 11:06 PM
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Realistically, with the way Phoenix has been playing lately I'd say a top 5 pick is definitely not out of question for the Oilers.

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03-01-2007, 11:10 PM
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i think getting a top 5 pick is almost out of reach.. 7 is easily acheivable with the way we are currently playing. we do have some tough games ahead of us with another 6 games road trip.. Ellerby and Esposito should be available @ #7

however if we PHO does pass us.. then upgrade Ellerby into Alzner and Esposito into Kane

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03-01-2007, 11:10 PM
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Let's see where the Oilers are 4 games from now, I'd seen a bunch of people estimating 8th thru 12th, that seems reasonable except that looking through your list shows that should really be 7th thru 12th.

STL and BOS both have at least 1 GIH, so EDM's roughly even with them.

Next 4 games of CGY, TB, ANA, SJ is less than promising though. Actually, the rest of the year looks pretty tough. After that they play in LA, 2nd game of a BTB after playing in ANA the night previous, then it's MIN, STL, VAN, COL, COL, NSH during a 6 game home stand, and then a 6 game road trip to end the season, NSH, STL, CHI, MIN, MIN, CAL.

It's not inconceivable that the Oilers pick up only 12 pts in their last 17 games, in which case they could possibly end up with the 5th worst record, and in the lottery for the 1st overall pick? Who knows?

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03-01-2007, 11:15 PM
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Probably anywhere from 5th to 8th.

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03-01-2007, 11:15 PM
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Considering we drafted Smyth at #6, and that's about as low as we can realistically fall, I'm going to guess that's where we end up without him. Are any of the top 10 players in this draft from the Edmonton area? Any former Oiler stick boys?

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03-01-2007, 11:18 PM
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I've never thought I'd want the Oilers would lose the rest of the games lol

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03-01-2007, 11:19 PM
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its just edmontons luck that the year we *really* tank it, there arent any "sure-fire superstars" to get in the top 10.... its a draft where everybody agrees that its a crapshoot from 4-15 essentially.... so a team who finishes 1 point out of the playoffs will have just as likely a chance of landing a really great player as we do.... awesome!! *sigh* when will the pain of being an oiler fan end?

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03-01-2007, 11:24 PM
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Personally I'd be really surprised if we score 4 goals in the next 4 games. Gees good thing we aren't playing the Capitals, or Flyers. It'd be like the South Park where the boys are hoping to get elimated from playing ball, but the other teams were out- sucking them, and Kyle's dad kept getting in fights in the stands, to the theme of "Rocky". Classic.

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03-01-2007, 11:43 PM
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If we set our standards really low I am sure we can acheive them. Be optimistic. We could easily lose 12 to 14 of our final games and I think Lowe leaves Nillson and Schremp where they are rather than bringing them into the current atmosphere.

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03-01-2007, 11:47 PM
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s7ark
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I think 12 points may be overestimating a bit even. We are taking injuries in every game of late so the kids will be up eventually. If we are playing with kids in a low stress environment, we will lose a lot of games, while gaining valuable XP. We could go as low as 7-10 points imho. That could get us top 5.

I'll explain how the kids get up here afterwards in a side rant. Feel free to ignore it as it's slightly OT:

If we stop taking injuries then we can always put the already hurt guys that are still playing on the IR and let them heal. There is no point in them making it worse in meaningless games. Let them get set for next year. This is all the break they will get after a short summer this year.

That way we still bring up the kids, which really should be the priority right now. Lou has no problem bending rules and using the IR to help his team; Lowe had better learn to as well. Throw everyone hurt on the IR and call up the kids with emergency rules. We don't have as much money as other teams and need to use every advantage we can find. Wasting these last 17 games in a pointless attempt to make the playoffs and get our ***** handed to us isn't appealing. Everyone always grumbles about Lou's borderline moves but they always help his team. I want to see Lowe do what it takes to make this team a future winner. Who cares what other people say. It's a ruthless sport and we need to be able to make moves like this, if we need to.

We don't have our own farm team and most of these kids don't know Oiler hockey. Look at the trouble all the Pens callups had adjusting to our team. They looked like different players.

Give the kids the minutes to learn in some meaningless games and and sink or swim with them. That way we can make the stretch light hearted and the kids can adjust easier knowing we aren't peering as intently, and really just want to see what the kids can do. We try to win every game. We just make sure we are using the future of the team to try and do so.

And very likely we sink, to be honest. But we have fun watching the kids in a low stress environment as we get to look towards the future instead of drearily thinking about the present.

And even if we fall, we end up with a possible lottery pic and a shot at Turris or Kane. Two very promising players. We can easily bundle 2 1sts to move up as well. But we do need our own top 10 pick to offer in part. Top drafting teams don't want to drop that far. So the further we fall, the less we give up in trade to get our player.

It's wins all around. The hurt vets get a bit of a break before the battle next year. The kids get a chance to learn Oiler hockey with little stress, and still get vital NHL experience against cup calibre teams. Seriously, how much would some low stress games help guys like Lupul, JFJ and MAP right now? This is in the best interest of the organization.

Make it happen Lowe. There's a bunch of guys playing through stuff right now. Get them on the IR and call up the kids.

They can even make a big deal out of it and call it "future watch" or something to sell tickets that way. Cause either way we are going to lose, and this way you might keep the sell-out streak alive.

/semi side rant


Last edited by s7ark: 03-01-2007 at 11:59 PM.
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Old
03-02-2007, 12:01 AM
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McDeepika
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Another positive s7ark, is that even though we don't have anything to play for, the teams we will be playing aginst do.

Chances are that if our kids can hack it and play well when our opposition really tightens up, odds are they will be able to hack it and play well throughout the year next year.

We can see who plays well against teams who are playing playoff hockey.

No point in bringing back Moreau and Stoll this year. No point in risking further injury and we know what we have with these guys. Coming back next year will also give them a chip on their shoulders and they will come out hard.

If Reasoner is out for an extended period of time, bring up Brodziak. It would be a great time to see if we should save a spot for him next year.

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03-02-2007, 12:08 AM
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OilRick
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I thought of another positive. Remember when everyone here was worried about hoe Raffi will cost us like 2 plus million next year. Well with the way he's played his year, we should be able to lock him up for 1 mill a year for about 4 years!

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03-02-2007, 12:11 AM
  #18
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I can't see us winning more than 6/7 games in this last stretch. So with 66 that would bring us up to finishing with about 78-80 points, which is pretty craptacular. So 5th-8th draft position wouldn't be that far off.

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03-02-2007, 12:17 AM
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I know some people are starting to wonder about tanking the next year and getting Tavares in 2008. Now that is depressing.

But hey, I guess it worked for Pittsburgh, right?

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03-02-2007, 12:20 AM
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misfit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I know some people are starting to wonder about tanking the next year and getting Tavares in 2008. Now that is depressing.

But hey, I guess it worked for Pittsburgh, right?
Not yet, it hasn't...unless you're talking about tanking to get Mario Lemieux.

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03-02-2007, 12:21 AM
  #21
Cloned
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The prospect of a Top 5 pick is simultaneously depressing and exciting at the same time, if that's possible.

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03-02-2007, 12:23 AM
  #22
grego
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The Oilers used to play with some desire and passion but we have rarely seen it this year.

I don't expect them to pick it up now that they have no real chance or shown desire to get in

They may get low 80s in points maybe less

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03-02-2007, 01:05 AM
  #23
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Anyone that says there are no sure-fire stars in the top end of this draft haven't seen Patrick Kane play. He's phenomenal. Alzner, Cherepanov, Esposito and some others are also quality players with star potential.

I see the Oilers finishing 11th in the West, probably 23rd overall. We have an outside chance of sinking below the Yotes, but both clubs are pretty gawdawful. We will have the 7th or 8th overall pick.

We are going into the toilet though, so a lottery pick would not be at all shocking. A shot at the top 5 would be nice. Regardless of where you pick you better have the right player in mind. The passing up on Parise and Getzlaf isn't inspiring confidence though.

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03-02-2007, 01:11 AM
  #24
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I think the Oilers are a lock for lucky #7.

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Old
03-02-2007, 01:13 AM
  #25
Soundwave
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I'm not entirely clear on how the NHL draft works since I haven't followed it too much in the past.

How low would we have to be to get into the lottery range and possibly got a top 1/2/3 type pick?

Also what are your guys' thoughts on Esposito? Has his stock really fallen that much?

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