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Ryan Smyth's Worth: A comprehensive analysis.

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03-02-2007, 05:49 AM
  #1
imkinger
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Ryan Smyth's Worth: A comprehensive analysis.

Why Lowe made the right choice.

I base my opinion on existing contracts, Kevin Lowe's budget, Smyth's production, his durability, his age, his status as an unrestricted free agent, his ability to play tough minutes while outscoring, his leadership and his loyalty to the team he clearly loves to play for.

Feel free to object to any of the points I have made in a logical manner; else wise I will not bother to respond. Just keep your "Smyth is worth 6 million to the Oilers because he's great arguments" to yourself, they don't add anything to the debate.

1. Knowledge of Existing Contracts.

Best Examples:

Jason Arnott: Agreed to a five-year, $22.5 (4.5m/year) million dollar deal in this past off season. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Arnott* - Smyth
Games: 824 - 770
Goals: 276 (0.33) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 368 (0.45) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 644 (0.78) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Arnott - Smyth*
Games: 81 - 72
Goals: 32 - 42
Assists: 44 - 30
Points: 76 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Steve Sullivan: Agreed to a four-year, $12.8 (3.2m/year) million dollar deal in the summer of 2005. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Sullivan* - Smyth
Games: 597 - 770
Goals: 175 (0.29) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 274 (0.46) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 449 (0.75) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Sullivan - Smyth*
Games: 81 - 72
Goals: 23 - 42
Assists: 49 - 30
Points: 72 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Rod Brind'Amour: Agreed to a five-year, $18 (3.6m/year) million dollar contract in this past offseason. He was 35 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Brind'Amour* - Smyth
Games: 1187 - 770
Goals: 382 (0.32) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 599 (0.50) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 981 (0.83) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Brind'Amour - Smyth*
Games: 78 - 72
Goals: 31 - 42
Assists: 39 - 30
Points: 80 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Saku Koivu: Agreed to a three-year, $14.25 (4.75m/year) million dollar contract during last season. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Koivu* - Smyth
Games: 569 - 770
Goals: 137 (0.24) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 323 (0.58) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 460 (0.80) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Koivu - Smyth*
Games: 72 - 72
Goals: 17 - 42
Assists: 45 - 30
Points: 62 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Daniel Alfredsson: Agreed to a five-year, $24.7* (4.339m/year) million dollar contract the summer before the lockout. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

*Prorated to reflect lockout rollback

Career:
Alfredsson* - Smyth
Games: 629 - 770
Goals: 219 (0.35) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 350 (0.56) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 569 (0.90) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Alfredsson - Smyth*
Games: 72 - 72
Goals: 32 - 42
Assists: 48 - 30
Points: 80 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Martin St. Louis: Agreed to a six-year, $31.5 (5.25m/year) million dollar contract in this past offseason. He was 30 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
St. Louis* - Smyth
Games: 444 - 770
Goals: 140 (0.32) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 180 (0.41) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 320 (0.72) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
St. Louis - Smyth*
Games: 80 - 72
Goals: 31 - 42
Assists: 30 - 30
Points: 61 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

You can draw your own conclusions from this, I think things are pretty clear.

2. Kevin Lowe's Budget.

Although the salary cap was supposed to introduce parity for the Oilers organization, after two years under the new CBA it's clear that this team will not spend to the cap. Thus all monies must be spent responsibly, so that the team can remain competitive with other organizations with those organizations that do spend to the limit.

3. Smyth's Production.

Over his career, Smyth has averaged 0.71 Points Per Game. Before this years campaign, his best year in terms of PPG was 2002-2003 where he scored 61 points in 66 games (0.92). This year, Smyth is exceeding this total, and is averaging a point per game. However, it's safe to say that in light of both his career PPG (0.71) and his output this season (1), that it's unrealistic to expect a continuation of the current PPG average throughout the length of a 5 year contract. It is prudent to expect Smyth to put up around 0.80 PPG during that term. Thus the contract should be structured around the expectation of 0.80 PPG. As you can see above, 5.75m/y will buy you a lot more than 0.80 PPG.

4. Smyth's durability

Not including his rookie season, Smyth potentially could have played 868 games at this point in his career. I am aware that this is an unrealistic expectation; however, my intention is only to use it as a basis to determine the percentage of games he has played in.

Potential: 868
Actual*: 786
Percentage: 91%

* Gives the benefit of the doubt that he will play the remaining 19 games this season.

This is a fairly good result. Smyth is neither particularly durable nor is he injury prone.

5. Unrestricted Free Agency.

All the comparable contracts I included were signed by unrestricted free agents. Refer to them for comparison.

6. Tough Minutes and Outscoring Ability.

Here is where you make up the ground between a Jason Arnott and a Ryan Smyth. Their numbers may be similar, but Smyth has taken a much harder road (especially in the last couple years). Still, is this ability really worth in excess of 1m dollars per season on top of the fact that Arnott outscores Smyth? I just can't bring myself to believe that it is.

7. Character and Loyalty.

The above is why I wouldn't have been upset if Smyth had signed for 5.4m/5. By all measurements, even that would have been any overpay. However, one that is understandable due to the intangibles that Ryan Smyth brings to a team. Can you put a dollar value on this sort of thing? Frankly, I think Kevin Lowe did, and that's why he went as high as 27m/5. It's just too bad that they couldn't work things out.


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 03:25 PM.
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03-02-2007, 06:21 AM
  #2
Yanner39
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One of the better posts I've read in awhile. It was a hockey decision and Lowe decided for the $$ Smyth wanted, Lowe thought he could spend it elsewhere better.


People forget that the $5.4M Lowe offered was very generous and fair. Some posters rip EIG for not giving Lowe the funds but man, they are way off base here.

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03-02-2007, 06:24 AM
  #3
stangconv
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Why Lowe made the right choice.

I base my opinion on existing contracts, Kevin Lowe's budget, Smyth's production, his durability, his age, his status as an unrestricted free agent, his ability to play tough minutes while outscoring, his leadership and his loyalty to the team he clearly loves to play for.

Feel free to object to any of the points I have made in a logical manner; else wise I will not bother to respond. Just keep your "Smyth is worth 6 million to the Oilers because he's great arguments" to yourself, they don't add anything to the debate.

1. Knowledge of Existing Contracts.

Best Examples:

Jason Arnott: Agreed to a five-year, $22.5 (4.5m/year) million dollar deal in this past off season. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Arnott* - Smyth
Games: 824 - 770
Goals: 276 (0.33) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 368 (0.45) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 644 (0.78) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Arnott - Smyth*
Games: 81 - 72
Goals: 32 - 42
Assists: 44 - 30
Points: 76 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Steve Sullivan: Agreed to a four-year, $12.8 (3.2m/year) million dollar deal in the summer of 2005. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Sullivan* - Smyth
Games: 597 - 770
Goals: 175 (0.29) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 274 (0.46) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 449 (0.75) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Sullivan - Smyth*
Games: 81 - 72
Goals: 23 - 42
Assists: 49 - 30
Points: 72 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Rod Brind'Amour: Agreed to a five-year, $18 (3.6m/year) million dollar contract in this past offseason. He was 35 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Brind'Amour* - Smyth
Games: 1187 - 770
Goals: 382 (0.32) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 599 (0.50) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 981 (0.83) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Brind'Amour - Smyth*
Games: 78 - 72
Goals: 31 - 42
Assists: 39 - 30
Points: 80 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Saku Koivu: Agreed to a three-year, $14.25 (4.75m/year) million dollar contract during last season. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
Koivu* - Smyth
Games: 569 - 770
Goals: 137 (0.24) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 323 (0.58) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 460 (0.80) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Koivu - Smyth*
Games: 72 - 72
Goals: 17 - 42
Assists: 45 - 30
Points: 62 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Daniel Alfredsson: Agreed to a five-year, $24.7* (4.339m/year) million dollar contract the summer before the lockout. He was 31 years old when he signed the deal.

*Prorated to reflect lockout rollback

Career:
Alfredsson* - Smyth
Games: 629 - 770
Goals: 219 (0.35) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 350 (0.56) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 569 (0.90) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
Alfredsson - Smyth*
Games: 72 - 72
Goals: 32 - 42
Assists: 48 - 30
Points: 80 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

Martin St. Louis: Agreed to a six-year, $31.5 (5.25m/year) million dollar contract in this past offseason. He was 30 years old when he signed the deal.

Career:
St. Louis* - Smyth
Games: 444 - 770
Goals: 140 (0.32) - 265 (0.34)
Assists: 180 (0.41) - 284 (0.37)
Points: 320 (0.72) - 549 (0.71)

* Stats are based on the time before he signed his latest deal.

Season of negotiations:
St. Louis - Smyth*
Games: 80 - 72
Goals: 31 - 42
Assists: 30 - 30
Points: 61 - 72

* Stats are prorated over remaining games.

You can draw your own conclusions from this, I think things are pretty clear.

2. Kevin Lowe's Budget.

Although the salary cap was supposed to introduce parity for the Oilers organization, after two years under the new CBA it's clear that this team will not spend to the cap. Thus all monies must be spent responsibly, so that the team can remain financial competitive with other organizations.

3. Smyth's Production.

Over his career, Smyth has averaged 0.71 Points Per Game. Before this years campaign, his best year in terms of PPG was 2002-2003 where he scored 66 points in 61 games (0.92). This year, Smyth is exceeding this total, and is averaging a point per game. However, it's safe to say that in light of both his career PPG (0.71) and his output this season (1), that it's unrealistic to expect a continuation of the current PPG average throughout the length of a 5 year contract. It is prudent to expect Smyth to put up around 0.80 PPG during that term. Thus the contract should be structured around the expectation of 0.80 PPG. As you can see above, 5.75m/y will buy you a lot more than 0.80 PPG.

4. Smyth's durability

Not including his rookie season, Smyth potentially could have played 868 games at this point in his career. I am aware that this is an unrealistic expectation; however, my intention is only to use it as a basis to determine the percentage of games he has played in.

Potential: 868
Actual*: 786
Percentage: 91%

* Gives the benefit of the doubt that he will play the remaining 19 games this season.

This is a fairly good result. Smyth is neither particularly durable nor is he injury prone.

5. Unrestricted Free Agency.

All the comparable contracts I included were signed by unrestricted free agents. Refer to them for comparison.

6. Tough Minutes and Outscoring Ability.

Here is where you make up the ground between a Jason Arnott and a Ryan Smyth. Their numbers may be similar, but Smyth has taken a much harder road (especially in the last couple years). Still, is this ability really worth in excess of 1m dollars per season on top of the fact that Arnott outscores Smyth? I just can't bring myself to believe that it is.

7. Character and Loyalty.

The above is why I wouldn't have been upset if Smyth had signed for 5.4m/5. By all measurements, even that would have been any overpay. However, one that is understandable due to the intangibles that Ryan Smyth brings to a team. Can you put a dollar value on this sort of thing? Frankly, I think Kevin Lowe did, and that's why he went as high as 27m/5. It's just too bad that they couldn't work things out.
COrrect me if I am wrong but if he scores 66 points in 61 games that is more then a point per game.

I think you meant 61 points in 66 games?

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03-02-2007, 08:04 AM
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A great argument; unfortunately, for all the contracts you mention, his agent can point out crazy contracts like those of like Sergei Fedorov, Alexei Yashin, and Brad Richards. However, a quick survey of Irish Blue's Salary Charts shows that VERY FEW forwards in the NHL make over 5 Million: only 21 of them.

That being said, a lot of these players could make a lot of money going the UFA route: Martin Havlat got 6 million a year, and while he would be entirely worth it could he stay healthy, his injury-prone-ness means he'll likely average less points than Smyth every season.

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03-02-2007, 08:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yanner39 View Post
One of the better posts I've read in awhile. It was a hockey decision and Lowe decided for the $$ Smyth wanted, Lowe thought he could spend it elsewhere better.
As we all know, saying you are going to take $X and do Y with it in the free agent market has blown up in some GMs faces over the past couple of summers when the numbers just didn't work out. Spend it better? Maybe that won't work out, but he certainly wasn't going to spend it this way. Even he can't guarantee that he will be able to do anything better with that money, or even be reasonably sure of it. If better means divided up amongst two players, then maybe. I don't see him landing somebody we all agree is going to bring something better than Smyth does/did for the same amount of money (but it *could* happen).

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03-02-2007, 08:44 AM
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I agree it is shame it did not work out but Smytty pushed for a little too much and I do feel it would have been a poor hockey down the road to give up that much.

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03-02-2007, 08:56 AM
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I think when you look at his contract, his status as the "face of the team" did play into it. In terms of comparables, you then get players like Naslund (when he was a force), Iginla, Sundin et al thrown in as comparables. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised that if you did a brand valuation of the Oilers (in the case of a sale), his presence would have played a part.

It came down to $200-300,000. An exciting hockey team with a chance to win makes more in terms of concession and merchandise revenue. Not that the profit margins are incredibly high, you can't convince me that the Oil couldn't have made that up throughout the year and keeping him on board.

Just a thought.

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03-02-2007, 09:11 AM
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The botom line was this

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yanner39 View Post
One of the better posts I've read in awhile. It was a hockey decision and Lowe decided for the $$ Smyth wanted, Lowe thought he could spend it elsewhere better.


People forget that the $5.4M Lowe offered was very generous and fair. Some posters rip EIG for not giving Lowe the funds but man, they are way off base here.
, bang on , I am a Habs fan but I COMPLETELY APPLAUD THE MOVE by Lowe , he had no choice for these reasons.

1) Your window to win a cup is over. Oiler fans this is not the same team as last year . You lost the best dman in the game and a soild puck mover in Spacek. Now you struggle in your own zone to move the puck .

2) Career years - Stoll, Horcoff, and Hemsky played way above expectations , what usually happens next year , THEY PLAY THE WAY THEY SHOULD, which is what is happening now.
Pisani got 14 goals in the playoffs, you are lucky to get 14 goals in a season .
Rolo played like Roy but he was 38 last year , what the hell did you expect this year .

3) YOU CAUGHT THE PLAYOFF wave last year just like Carolina , you were on the roll , and went to the finals , look at the Canes this year , the wave is over.

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03-02-2007, 09:17 AM
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Great analysis of the contracts and output of comparables.

I'd be curious to know the teams' winning records when Smyth and each of the other players are in the lineups. To me this would help quantify the 'intangibles' and leadership factor. I.e. does a team win more when its $5+ million dollar forward is playing?

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03-02-2007, 09:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
2. Kevin Lowe's Budget.

Although the salary cap was supposed to introduce parity for the Oilers organization, after two years under the new CBA it's clear that this team will not spend to the cap. Thus all monies must be spent responsibly, so that the team can remain financial competitive with other organizations.
Good post, pretty indepth stuff. You must have put some effort into it.

This is my one quibble :

If the EIG isn't gonna spend to the cap anytime soon (and if they were roughly 4MM below it this year, and it's going up to 47-48 next year, chances aren't they wont' again) then concerns about Smyth's contract affecting the Oilers cap concerns are moot. They won't spend to the cap, so why worry about Smyth's cap hit?

The concern then is the EIG's budget, if Smyth's hit blows their budget, they can't spend more down the road.

But the EIG's budget is more flexible than the cap. For one thing, Smyth himself means alot to the oilers, in that it might make sense to overpay Smyth on the ice for what he brings off the ice, and I don't mean things like "heart" and "leadership". I mean things like jersey sales, like a personality that the club can build a marketing message around. Like the chance to retire the number 94 ten years down the road, when they've run out of glory years numbers to retire.

If Smyth is worth 4.5MM/yr as a hockey player to the Edmonton Oilers, what's he worth per year to the EIG? Not to mention that they're probably gonna lose money this year alone based on pissed off fans. And maybe next year too if they don't make a splash this summer.

As well, the EIG's budget is flexible in that they can always increase it during the good times, like say, after a deep run to the Cup finals. Of course, this season might indicate that they'd rather just pocket that money.


I think Smyth would have been worth an overpay, even up to 6MM, depending on the length. He gave this team an identity. Jason Smith is the captain, but Ryan Smyth was the face.
Who are the Oilers now? Who's our identity? Not many teams can really have one. Now, the oilers are the same ones they were in the mid 90's, a "poor" Canadian team who were once the envy of the sports world but now loses their best players.

I'd urge you all to check out the blog A Theory of Ice. There's a fantastic post up right now about Smyth. And it's written by a Habs fan.

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03-02-2007, 01:03 PM
  #11
imkinger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geoffvp View Post
A great argument; unfortunately, for all the contracts you mention, his agent can point out crazy contracts like those of like Sergei Fedorov, Alexei Yashin, and Brad Richards. However, a quick survey of Irish Blue's Salary Charts shows that VERY FEW forwards in the NHL make over 5 Million: only 21 of them.

That being said, a lot of these players could make a lot of money going the UFA route: Martin Havlat got 6 million a year, and while he would be entirely worth it could he stay healthy, his injury-prone-ness means he'll likely average less points than Smyth every season.
The reason I didn't include those contracts is because they are bad comparables, both in terms of career productions, status when the signed their deals and the players' relative age to Smyth.

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03-02-2007, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feff View Post
I think when you look at his contract, his status as the "face of the team" did play into it. In terms of comparables, you then get players like Naslund (when he was a force), Iginla, Sundin et al thrown in as comparables. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised that if you did a brand valuation of the Oilers (in the case of a sale), his presence would have played a part.

It came down to $200-300,000. An exciting hockey team with a chance to win makes more in terms of concession and merchandise revenue. Not that the profit margins are incredibly high, you can't convince me that the Oil couldn't have made that up throughout the year and keeping him on board.

Just a thought.
These are all horrible comparables.

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03-02-2007, 01:06 PM
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Great post imkinger!

I also would like to point out that with the UFA age dropping to 27 - I think that the NHL may be realizing that a player at age 27, maybe more desirable than a player aged 31.

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03-02-2007, 01:16 PM
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Those that have said that Smyth was worth $6 million were wrong before, and are still wrong. He's not that good of a player. You may say he was the face of the franchise, and he was. But a good manager won't let that bother them.

Now all that said, I think it's fair for those of us who feel that the return for Smyth was not good enough to criticize Lowe for this deal. But, as the original poster displays here, he had to move Ryan. But let's also not forget he could have had Smyth at around $5 million a year before this season began and he decided to wait until the deadline. Lowe, like every other situation the Oilers have been in this year, has simply let things happen, not gone out and made things happen... except for a Ryan Smyth trade that will drive fans away in droves.

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03-02-2007, 01:21 PM
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imkinger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
Good post, pretty indepth stuff. You must have put some effort into it.

This is my one quibble :

If the EIG isn't gonna spend to the cap anytime soon (and if they were roughly 4MM below it this year, and it's going up to 47-48 next year, chances aren't they wont' again) then concerns about Smyth's contract affecting the Oilers cap concerns are moot. They won't spend to the cap, so why worry about Smyth's cap hit?

The concern then is the EIG's budget, if Smyth's hit blows their budget, they can't spend more down the road.

But the EIG's budget is more flexible than the cap. For one thing, Smyth himself means alot to the oilers, in that it might make sense to overpay Smyth on the ice for what he brings off the ice, and I don't mean things like "heart" and "leadership". I mean things like jersey sales, like a personality that the club can build a marketing message around. Like the chance to retire the number 94 ten years down the road, when they've run out of glory years numbers to retire.

If Smyth is worth 4.5MM/yr as a hockey player to the Edmonton Oilers, what's he worth per year to the EIG? Not to mention that they're probably gonna lose money this year alone based on pissed off fans. And maybe next year too if they don't make a splash this summer.

As well, the EIG's budget is flexible in that they can always increase it during the good times, like say, after a deep run to the Cup finals. Of course, this season might indicate that they'd rather just pocket that money.


I think Smyth would have been worth an overpay, even up to 6MM, depending on the length. He gave this team an identity. Jason Smith is the captain, but Ryan Smyth was the face.
Who are the Oilers now? Who's our identity? Not many teams can really have one. Now, the oilers are the same ones they were in the mid 90's, a "poor" Canadian team who were once the envy of the sports world but now loses their best players.

I'd urge you all to check out the blog A Theory of Ice. There's a fantastic post up right now about Smyth. And it's written by a Habs fan.
I'm not trying to be mean, but this is exactly the kind of post I didn't want to see. If you want to make an argument, use facts, not assumptions.

Overpay Smyth because:

1. He is the face of the franchise.
2. He gave the team an identity.
3. Kevin Lowe should overpay because the EIG should be able to afford it.
4. Loss in merchandise sales.
5. Pissed off fans.

All your points are complete assumptions. Never mind the fact that half of them don't actually justify an overpay.


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 01:31 PM.
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03-02-2007, 01:36 PM
  #16
johnny_oiler
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Just because there is an upper limit to the salary cap does not mean you are required to spend up to it. Lowe and the EIG are trying to be fiscally responsible. If more GM's were like Lowe we would not have required to lose a year due to a lock out or even require a salary cap now.

Smyth is not a $5.5 Million player. Plain and simple.

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03-02-2007, 01:41 PM
  #17
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From a business P.O.V. EIG would want to keep Smyth. He sells tickets, sells jerseys, is beloved in the city, etc. It would've kept fans happy even if there were no playoffs this year.

That would've been the easy out for EIG, paying him the extra $300k-400k wasn't really the issue.

I don't neccessarily buy that EIG wasn't willing to spend, this was Lowe's call based on a hockey decision ... if we spend $6 million or more on a player, it has to be someone who can drive us into the playoffs ... no ifs, ands, or buts about it. It's not about the salary, it's about the ability.

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03-02-2007, 01:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekneek View Post
As we all know, saying you are going to take $X and do Y with it in the free agent market has blown up in some GMs faces over the past couple of summers when the numbers just didn't work out. Spend it better? Maybe that won't work out, but he certainly wasn't going to spend it this way. Even he can't guarantee that he will be able to do anything better with that money, or even be reasonably sure of it. If better means divided up amongst two players, then maybe. I don't see him landing somebody we all agree is going to bring something better than Smyth does/did for the same amount of money (but it *could* happen).

Good post to start out this thread, imkinger.

Regarding the bolded statement above, I think it touches on a good point, but it becomes a point-of-view type thing. I don't think Lowe expects to bring in someone better than Smyth for the same amount of money. At least I hope that is not the case, because it doesn't make any sense at all. I think it is obvious his plan is to bring in something BETTER for MORE money. If Lowe signs Smyth then is Lowe able to aquire a $7 million #1 d-man? (That is just an example) The trade didn't happen because the team refused to pay a player that kind of money, it happened because Lowe decided that in a cap environment it didn't make sense for the team to pay a "Ryan Smyth" type player that kind of money.

If Lowe plays his cards (assets and cap space) right he can show just how fast a team can turn things around in the "new" NHL.

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03-02-2007, 01:59 PM
  #19
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Honestly.......

I have no doubt Lowe could have offered Ryan what he wanted.

Thats not the point. What he likely wanted to do was wake Ryan up to the harsh reality of what he was pushing for.

Why would he want to do that? To get over all of the distractions now, rather then let them pile up for another 5 years.

Face it Smyth and the Oilers had alot of baggage.

Smyth... I'm the Oilers best player and the face of the franchise...Other players have left and won, I justy keep on sitting here not winning... I've given the "home town discount" its tiem for me to get my due...

etc etc etc

Oilers... dont be lie that Smytty, were doing ht ebst we can for you!

Just because you "love" someone, dosnt mean you should live with them if your working relationship has spoiled.

Its a chance for Ryan to start fresh and give him th epower to decided if he wants to be in Edmonton.

Its a chance for the Oilers to look at their options.

I hope they both decide in the off season that they want to take the next step and they are both better off together at a cost which can help the Oilers be competative and challenge for the length of their association.
(maybe a contract with alot of performance bonus's)

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03-02-2007, 02:09 PM
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I disagree with the OP because of this article.

I am in agreement with the writer. Lowe should have taken care of our star player first. The amount Pisiani got is ridiculous. That amount for one good drive in the playoffs and nothing good before or since. What was Lowe thinking. And Horcroff? I like Horcroff, but to be signed for that much before taking care of Smyth is a shame.

Lowe shame on you for not taking care of your star player. With how you treated Smyth how do you expect to get any UFA this off season? Give your toque a shake.

BTW, other than the Smyth deal I think Lowe is a good GM.

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03-02-2007, 02:12 PM
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The reason why Horcoff and all those guys were taken care of first was because they had to be taken care of first. Horcoff/Pisani/Hemsky etc. all had contracts that were up to be renewed last summer.

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03-02-2007, 02:21 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
The reason why Horcoff and all those guys were taken care of first was because they had to be taken care of first. Horcoff/Pisani/Hemsky etc. all had contracts that were up to be renewed last summer.
exactly I wish people would get it through their thick skulls that the world does not revolve around Ryan Smyth, there are other things that need to be taken care of first.

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03-02-2007, 02:27 PM
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Great analysis! Thank you.

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03-02-2007, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekneek View Post
As we all know, saying you are going to take $X and do Y with it in the free agent market has blown up in some GMs faces over the past couple of summers when the numbers just didn't work out. Spend it better? Maybe that won't work out, but he certainly wasn't going to spend it this way. Even he can't guarantee that he will be able to do anything better with that money, or even be reasonably sure of it. If better means divided up amongst two players, then maybe. I don't see him landing somebody we all agree is going to bring something better than Smyth does/did for the same amount of money (but it *could* happen).
i agree with the words that you are speaking, but not what you are saying.....


it IS a risk management scenario, either you are dealing with the risk of a high-traffic player taking a large chunk of the pie for 5 years raising durability concerns, or you are dealing with hoping that you can get something worth near the same or more value overall (regardless of how many players it is used to sign) with that chunk of money in a future uncertain market

I think KLowe took the more manageable risk, and picked up a couple low-risk, high-(but unlikely)-reward, players in the prospects and the pick.

break it down into all the different scenarios, and multiply the amount of possible reward from a scenario with the probably of it happening, and choose the one of highest worth: i think lowe did that

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03-02-2007, 02:47 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
The reason why Horcoff and all those guys were taken care of first was because they had to be taken care of first. Horcoff/Pisani/Hemsky etc. all had contracts that were up to be renewed last summer.
But Staios and Moreau's weren't. Just pointing it out, because I actually agree with imkinger here, very good, indepth post.

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