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Ryan Smyth's Worth: A comprehensive analysis.

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Old
03-02-2007, 02:06 PM
  #26
gr8haluschak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oiler-dude View Post
But Staios and Moreau's weren't. Just pointing it out, because I actually agree with imkinger here, very good, indepth post.
Like others have said in other posts don't you think that their contracts were done quicker because they were easier to negotiate

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03-02-2007, 02:07 PM
  #27
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this is a habs fan imposing his opinion on you guys..so pardon the interruption!

the way i see it, one of the guys you have as your comparables is up there, saku koivu.

Now if you look at Koivu the way you looked at Smyth, he is not worth 4.75 million dollars a year and a no trade clause, the stats just dont justify it.

But, what this guy brings other then stats makes me not care that that they're overpaying the leader of this team. As Koivu goes, the Canadiens go, and i really felt that way about Smyth and the Oilers. (if there were two guys who currently play in the NHL that i would have as the heart of my team, it would be Koivu and Smyth)

Point is, you dont put a dollar value on the heartbeat of your team, i think the things Ryan keeps talking about as not being about money are probably no trade clauses and stuff like that, which i dont know if the Kevin Lowe was willing to give as well as the big money.

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03-02-2007, 02:20 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by bigredoiler View Post
I disagree with the OP because of this article.

I am in agreement with the writer. Lowe should have taken care of our star player first. The amount Pisiani got is ridiculous. That amount for one good drive in the playoffs and nothing good before or since. What was Lowe thinking. And Horcroff? I like Horcroff, but to be signed for that much before taking care of Smyth is a shame.

Lowe shame on you for not taking care of your star player. With how you treated Smyth how do you expect to get any UFA this off season? Give your toque a shake.

BTW, other than the Smyth deal I think Lowe is a good GM.
You disagree with my assertion that Smyth isn't worth 5.5+ based on an article that stipulates that Lowe should have signed him first?

Nice work.

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03-02-2007, 02:26 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by oiler-dude View Post
But Staios and Moreau's weren't. Just pointing it out, because I actually agree with imkinger here, very good, indepth post.


Its not like Lowe hadn't been trying to sign Smyth. They've been negociating on and off for a year. If Smyth really wanted to play here, he would be playing here.

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03-02-2007, 02:28 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by flame_blaze View Post
this is a habs fan imposing his opinion on you guys..so pardon the interruption!

the way i see it, one of the guys you have as your comparables is up there, saku koivu.

Now if you look at Koivu the way you looked at Smyth, he is not worth 4.75 million dollars a year and a no trade clause, the stats just dont justify it.

But, what this guy brings other then stats makes me not care that that they're overpaying the leader of this team. As Koivu goes, the Canadiens go, and i really felt that way about Smyth and the Oilers. (if there were two guys who currently play in the NHL that i would have as the heart of my team, it would be Koivu and Smyth)

Point is, you dont put a dollar value on the heartbeat of your team, i think the things Ryan keeps talking about as not being about money are probably no trade clauses and stuff like that, which i dont know if the Kevin Lowe was willing to give as well as the big money.
Koivu's production does justify his contract. Hell, what I think you are saying is that he is overpaid, and in that case, what would that make Smyth? They have similar career PPG production and are considered leaders on their respective teams. I'm not saying Smyth isn't worth a comparable contract, but he sure isn't worth 2 more years at 5.5+.

Lowe agreed to give Smyth a NMC. As for the rest of your post:

"Feel free to object to any of the points I have made in a logical manner; else wise I will not bother to respond. Just keep your "Smyth is worth 6 million to the Oilers because he's great arguments" to yourself, they don't add anything to the debate."


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 04:03 PM.
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03-02-2007, 02:29 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
I'm not trying to be mean, but this is exactly the kind of post I didn't want to see. If you want to make an argument, use facts, not assumptions.

Overpay Smyth because:

1. He is the face of the franchise.
2. He gave the team an identity.
3. Kevin Lowe should overpay because the EIG should be able to afford it.
4. Loss in merchandise sales.
5. Pissed off fans.

All your points are complete assumptions. Never mind the fact that half of them don't actually justify an overpay.
I'm not making an argument based on facts, that's the point. You wanna see an argument based on facts, read the rest of the Oilogosphere, they do it better than I. Mudcrutch says he's gonna have a post up this weekend on why Smyth actually IS an elite player, and RiversQ has been beating that drum for the last few days.


Just because i'm not throwing stats and player comparables into this doesn't mean it's not a valid argument. I don't see how it's not possible that the Oilers org can be split into two components, the Hockey Club and the Ownership, and that Smyth can have independent values to both of them.

Try arguing my points next time. I think the one about an independent value to the owners is fairly justified.

You're reducing this all to a business decision, and I'm saying that in the very big picture, being a fan is more than a business decision. Being a fan is inherently illogical, but sometimes it does make sense, in ways that contradict the business sense.


Edit : we're arguing two different things here. You're saying Smyth is worth X to the Oilers as a hockey player based on what his contemporaries are earning. I'm not gonna get into that, that's more for guys like RiversQ et al who know it better than I. I do think they have a point though, the more I read. Maybe I just have alot of respect and time for them.
I'm saying that "overpaying" for Smyth (ie, giving him 5.5) would probably be OK because of the other things he brings, again, I'm not talking about stuff like "leadership" and "heart".


Last edited by Injektilo: 03-02-2007 at 02:41 PM.
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03-02-2007, 02:30 PM
  #32
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I agree EIG would gladly spend the money for a player who can really elevate this team into a consistent playoff/Cup contender.

They got a taste of big time playoff revune last year, of course they would spend a little more if it was possible to have a team like that.

Unfortunately with Ryan Smyth + say signing a guy like Philips .... you're still probably battling for the no. 8 seed.

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03-02-2007, 02:38 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
I'm not making an argument based on facts, that's the point.
And you wonder why I'm not "arguing [your] points".

Quote:
You wanna see an argument based on facts, read the rest of the Oilogosphere, they do it better than I. Mudcrutch says he's gonna have a post up this weekend on why Smyth actually IS an elite player, and RiversQ has been beating that drum for the last few days.
I've given you an argument based on facts. All I am asking for is for your critiques of my arguments to also be based on fact. It's not asking very much.

Quote:
Mudcrutch says he's gonna have a post up this weekend on why Smyth actually IS an elite player, and RiversQ has been beating that drum for the last few days.
MC is a smart guy, but he's going to have a hard time justifying 5.5+ over 5, even for a guy like Smyth. But yea, let's see the arguments... until then, why bother contributing garbage to the debate?

Quote:
Just because i'm not throwing stats and player comparables into this doesn't mean it's not a valid argument.
As a response to an argument that does use stats and comparables, one that is void of the aforementioned elements is utterly useless.

Quote:
I think the one about an independent value to the owners is fairly justified.
I'm not going to sit here and argue with you about your opinions unless you want to back them up with fact. It's a waste of our time.

Quote:
You're reducing this all to a business decision, and I'm saying that in the very big picture, being a fan is more than a business decision.
It was a business decision, plain and simple. If Kevin Lowe based his decisions on the fans want, we would be the laughing stock of the NHL.

Quote:
Being a fan is inherently illogical, but sometimes it does make sense, in ways that contradict the business sense.
I agree; thanks for supporting my argument that Lowe made the right decision, rather than the shotgun one.

PS.

Don't bother a giant reply, you will just be wasting your time. From this point on I will only reply to your posts with anything of substance if you decided to actually address my arguments, rather than subvert them with conjecture.


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 02:49 PM.
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03-02-2007, 02:57 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flame_blaze View Post
this is a habs fan imposing his opinion on you guys..so pardon the interruption!

the way i see it, one of the guys you have as your comparables is up there, saku koivu.

Now if you look at Koivu the way you looked at Smyth, he is not worth 4.75 million dollars a year and a no trade clause, the stats just dont justify it.

But, what this guy brings other then stats makes me not care that that they're overpaying the leader of this team. As Koivu goes, the Canadiens go, and i really felt that way about Smyth and the Oilers. (if there were two guys who currently play in the NHL that i would have as the heart of my team, it would be Koivu and Smyth)

Point is, you dont put a dollar value on the heartbeat of your team, i think the things Ryan keeps talking about as not being about money are probably no trade clauses and stuff like that, which i dont know if the Kevin Lowe was willing to give as well as the big money.

Regarding the first bold point, that reiterates the point I am trying to make... if Koivu at 4.75 and Smyth at 5.5 are the heart of your team, your team is more than likely not going to contend, because when all the other pieces are put in place the team no longer has the cap room to get an elite player. It's just economics.

With respect to your second point, just so that you know, Lowe did in fact give in to Smyth's demand for a no trade clause. He gave in on the NTC and a 5th year on the contract - both things he was loath to do.

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03-02-2007, 03:02 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
And you wonder why I'm not "arguing [your] points".



I've given you an argument based on facts. All I am asking for is for your critiques of my arguments to also be based on fact. It's not asking very much.



MC is a smart guy, but he's going to have a hard time justifying 5.5+ over 5, even for a guy like Smyth. But yea, let's see the arguments... until then, why bother contributing garbage to the debate?



As a response to an argument that does use stats and comparables, one that is void of the aforementioned elements is utterly useless.



I'm not going to sit here and argue with you about your opinions unless you want to back them up with fact. It's a waste of our time.



It was a business decision, plain and simple. If Kevin Lowe based his decisions on the fans want, we would be the laughing stock of the NHL.



I agree; thanks for supporting my argument that Lowe made the right decision, rather than the shotgun one.

PS.

Don't bother a giant reply, you will just be wasting your time. From this point on I will only reply to your posts with anything of substance if you decided to actually address my arguments, rather than subvert them with conjecture.

So unless I start throwing out numbers (which is apparently the only "facts" you'll recognize) you'll refuse to actually address my points? I'm not using the stats arguments, that's not my forte. Just because I don't have any numbers in my post doesn't mean the points aren't valid.

Christ, i complimented you in my first post. Where'd all this vitrol come from? Man up and argue my points.

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03-02-2007, 03:05 PM
  #36
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Again, we're arguing about two different things here, you missed my edit on my previous post.

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03-02-2007, 03:05 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
So unless I start throwing out numbers (which is apparently the only "facts" you'll recognize) you'll refuse to actually address my points? I'm not using the stats arguments, that's not my forte. Just because I don't have any numbers in my post doesn't mean the points aren't valid.

Christ, i complimented you in my first post. Where'd all this vitrol come from? Man up and argue my points.
I'm not going to sit here and argue with you about your opinions unless you want to back them up with fact. It's a waste of our time.

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03-02-2007, 03:08 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
I'm not going to sit here and argue with you about your opinions unless you want to back them up with fact. It's a waste of our time.
And again, what "facts" are you looking for? I'm not talking about Smyth at 5.5 being overpaid in comparison to his contemoraries, that very well may be. I'm saying he's gotta be worth something beyond that. What, you want me to quote numbers that don't exist yet?

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03-02-2007, 03:08 PM
  #39
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As Koivu goes, the Canadiens go, and i really felt that way about Smyth and the Oilers.
And where have the Oilers gone with Smyth? Last year Pronger was easily our best player.

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03-02-2007, 03:10 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
Again, we're arguing about two different things here, you missed my edit on my previous post.
"I'm saying that "overpaying" for Smyth (ie, giving him 5.5) would probably be OK because of the other things he brings, again, I'm not talking about stuff like "leadership" and "heart"."

There is no point in arguing whether or not Smyth should be overpaid based on intangibles (see: "the other things he brings"). It's just a waste of time. I read what you have to say, and I think it's silly to think in that manner.

You think I'm being ridiculous basing everything on facts; I think you are being ridiculous basing everything on assumptions. It's as simple as that.

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03-02-2007, 03:15 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
And again, what "facts" are you looking for? I'm not talking about Smyth at 5.5 being overpaid in comparison to his contemoraries, that very well may be. I'm saying he's gotta be worth something beyond that. What, you want me to quote numbers that don't exist yet?
Dude, why are we putting ourselves through this?

Here is your argument:

Smyth should be overpaid

BECAUSE

1. He is the face of the franchise.
2. He gave the team an identity.
3. Kevin Lowe should overpay because the EIG should be able to afford it.
4. Loss in merchandise sales.
5. Pissed off fans.

I already showed you that half of these things don't justify overpaying (gives the team an identity, Overpay because they can afford to [this one is a real doozy], Pissed off fans), and I also asserted that all of them are based on loose conclusions. What more do you want?


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 03:38 PM.
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03-02-2007, 03:16 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
"I'm saying that "overpaying" for Smyth (ie, giving him 5.5) would probably be OK because of the other things he brings, again, I'm not talking about stuff like "leadership" and "heart"."

There is no point in arguing whether or not Smyth should be overpaid based on intangibles. It's just a waste of time. I read what you have to say, and I think it's silly to think in that manner.

You think I'm being ridiculous basing everything on facts; I think you are being ridiculous basing everything on assumptions. It's as simple as that.
I'm looking at this from a different perspective. That's what you're missing.

Like I said, Smyth at 5.5 may well be overpaid in comparison to other players, fine. But when the budget we're talking about here is the EIG's budget and not the cap, then there's room for flexibility. You're looking at this far too rigidly.

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03-02-2007, 03:20 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Dude, why are we putting ourselves through this?

Here is your argument:

Smyth should be overpaid

BECAUSE

1. He is the face of the franchise.
2. He gave the team an identity.
3. Kevin Lowe should overpay because the EIG should be able to afford it.
4. Loss in merchandise sales.
5. Pissed off fans.

I alright showed you that half of these things don't justify overpaying (gives the team an identity, Overpay because they can afford to [this one is a real doozy], Pissed off fans), and I also asserted that all of them are based on loose conclusions. What more do you want?
That's not at all what i'm arguing. I'm saying he should be "overpaid" because there's a good chance it makes financial sense to for the EIG. Not because they can afford to, but because it'd make sense.

Pissed off fans = loss of an income. Loss of income = less money that the EIG has to spend on payroll. If the cap goes up to 48MM next year, and say 50MM the year after, the EIG won't be spending that high. Remember the line "we'd be more comfortable with a cap of 40MM?" from a few weeks ago?

The only budget they have to worry about is their own internal budget.

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03-02-2007, 03:23 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
That's not at all what i'm arguing. I'm saying he should be "overpaid" because there's a good chance it makes financial sense to for the EIG. Not because they can afford to, but because it'd make sense.
Prove it.

Quote:
Pissed off fans = loss of an income.
Prove it.

Quote:
If the cap goes up to 48MM next year, and say 50MM the year after, the EIG won't be spending that high. Remember the line "we'd be more comfortable with a cap of 40MM?" from a few weeks ago?
And that's reason to overpay Smyth??????

Quote:
The only budget they have to worry about is their own internal budget.
How does it follow that they should use that budget irresponsibly (see: overpay).

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03-02-2007, 03:24 PM
  #45
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Fans are fickle though. If Lowe makes some moves in the offseason and the team comes away better than this past year, they'll come back. They always do.

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03-02-2007, 03:26 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Prove it.

Well I can't. I don't have the data, nor am I a financial wizard. I'm sorry those those "facts" aren't as published as the NHL.com stats are. Especially considering they haven't happened yet.

Oilers fans do seem to be willing to take whatever the EIG will feed them however.

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03-02-2007, 03:30 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
Well I can't. I don't have the data, nor am I a financial wizard. I'm sorry those those "facts" aren't as published as the NHL.com stats are. Especially considering they haven't happened yet.
Congratulations Injecktilo, you just figured out why I don't want to argue with you.

Are you saying my opinion is uninformed? I read what Riv had to say. However, I question what I read, and both Rivers and Rage have balked at my challenge to justify a 5 year 5.5m+ dollar deal for Smyth. I refuse to join the blame game until I am presented with reason to think that Lowe didn't make the right choice by dealing Smyth to the Island.

I WOULD LOVE TO BE PROVEN WRONG.


Last edited by imkinger: 03-02-2007 at 04:05 PM.
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03-02-2007, 03:31 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
Fans are fickle though. If Lowe makes some moves in the offseason and the team comes away better than this past year, they'll come back. They always do.

This is true. Winning solves everything. I'm not so sure that this move put us back on the path to winning though, Lowe will have to make a pretty smart move this summer to pull that off.
Again, I'll leave it to the stats guys to explain why Smyth is actually pretty elite and worth more than his GAP would indicate, I think they've been doing a much better job than I ever could.

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03-02-2007, 03:35 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
Congratulations Injecktilo, you just figured out why I don't want to argue with you.



Are you saying my opinion is uninformed? I read what Riv had to say. The difference between you and I is that I form my own opinions based on the evidence that I am presented with (thus this post).

I WOULD LOVE TO BE PROVEN WRONG.
Again, we're arguing different things. You want me to tell you why Smyth is worth 5.5MM when his best comparibles say he isn't. I can't do that, and I'm not sure you're not right, you may well be. I just think there's more to it than simple numbers.

All I know is I'm less of a fan of the Oilers than I was a few days ago. Maybe I'm just not as big a fan of the laundry as others are. Maybe I'm more a fan of the stories and myths than others are.

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03-02-2007, 03:39 PM
  #50
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I see what both of you are saying.

I respect imkinger's opinion because he's only dealing with what is given. I don't doubt that he could very well feel that "intangibles" are important. Unfortunately, they aren't that easy to measure and quantify.

Some of the stuff Injektilo mentioned may have an impact. But given they can't be quantified, they could just as easily have the opposite impact than what we think.

I wouldn't be surprised if Smyth was more valuable to the Oilers organization than another organization in terms of bringing fans into the seats (which seems to be what Injektilo has as one of his points). Though at the same time, if (and god, I want you all to know I'm being hypothetical here) Kevin Lowe pulls of the deal of the century and convinces Pittsburgh to trade us Sid the Kid, people will be saying "Ryan who?" in no time (again, I have zero expectation of Crosby coming to Edmonton...I just picked an absurd example because, deep down, I really would like Crosby to be an Oiler! ). In essence, if we can make moves in the offseason that improve the team, then I'm not too worried about fan optics.

While I haven't looked too much into it, my hyothesis is that, for the most part, team success is the strongest correlator to fan attendance. While correlation does not imply causation, I can't think of any confounding variables, and I'm skeptical as to good fan attendance causing team success.

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