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Ryan Smyth's Worth: A comprehensive analysis.

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Old
03-02-2007, 03:41 PM
  #51
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I don't care about stories or myths or legends or any of that ... I just want a good team that isn't fighting for the 8th seed anymore.

If we had given Smyth that kind of money, IMO we'd be fighting upstream to a 8th seed every year.

Smyth is a terrific player, a great person for the community, but lets be honest, any time this team has had significant playoff success, he's been the no.2/3/4 option.

In 97 and 98 it was Cujo, Weight, Guerin/Arnott, and Marchant that really carried those teams. Last year it was Pronger/Roloson/Pisani/Hemsky that were our top 4 during the post-season.

Smyth is worth $5.5 million .... *IF* you have a Pronger + supporting forwards around him. He is not, however, a guy who can single handedily lift this team to compete with the real big boys of the NHL, and I think really for that kind of money, that's what Lowe wanted.

To use an analogy from earlier, Smyth is a reliable Honda Accord, but for the price range I think Lowe is saying he'll spend a little more if it means getting a BMW, Audi, or Mercedes instead.

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03-02-2007, 03:45 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
Though at the same time, if (and god, I want you all to know I'm being hypothetical here) Kevin Lowe pulls of the deal of the century and convinces Pittsburgh to trade us Sid the Kid, people will be saying "Ryan who?" in no time (again, I have zero expectation of Crosby coming to Edmonton...I just picked an absurd example because, deep down, I really would like Crosby to be an Oiler! ). In essence, if we can make moves in the offseason that improve the team, then I'm not too worried about fan optics.

Oh totally, I fully agree. Ryan who? indeed.

I guess that's my other concern, the Oilers now have 5M or so in space that's not being spent on Smyth, so they have to find a player who can replace all that Smyth brought to the team, at less or equal money. And if it's done in a trade, the players going the other way have to be equal to or less than the equivalent value of O'Marra, Nilsson and th 17th (or so) overall pick.

It'll be tough to do, especially given the reluctance free agents have with signing here. And I don't think we'll stumble across this year's equivalent of Chris Pronger being put out at the curb.

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03-02-2007, 03:48 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
This is true. Winning solves everything. I'm not so sure that this move put us back on the path to winning though, Lowe will have to make a pretty smart move this summer to pull that off.

I don't think it is necessarily that unlikely that we improve upon our team. Our team was not exactly superstellar with Ryan Smyth in the lineup. Yes, it's weaker now, but I'm much more concerned about our defensive corps than the forwards.

The guy I'd really like to get is Kimmo Timonen, and there's a host of other players as well. Jersey is probably going to have to choose between Rafalski and Martin. Redden may be available. While I don't know if I like Souray if it is JUST Souray, if we get Souray and another good defenseman, I don't know if I'd be that heartbroken.

Our current young defensemen will probably become decent defensemen, and I think they are viable trading assets. Same goes for the large chunk of forward prospects and draft picks that we have. Even though he has a huge contract, I am still a huge Brad Richards fan. And I think his large contract means that, asset wise, he can be had for cheaper than otherwise. With the asset acquisition, and depending on what happens in free agency, Pitkanen could still be had. The nice thing about having a large prospect pool is that you can "overpay" (god I hate that word) and not strip your prospect pool clean.

Speaking of stripped prospect pools, if Atlanta does poorly this season after the trade they made for Tkachuk, it's possible that our yount assets will be highly thought of for them. Perhaps we can use them to acquire a talent like Marian Hossa.

I don't know if the opportunities are necessarily all that bleak. With a salary cap, player turnover increases and the ability to bounce back after a poor season increases with it.

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03-02-2007, 03:49 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
It'll be tough to do, especially given the reluctance free agents have with signing here. And I don't think we'll stumble across this year's equivalent of Chris Pronger being put out at the curb.
I think this is pretty much a myth. In the past, the team didn't compete for UFAs because of the optics of being a small market NHL franchise.

The first year after the lockout, Pronger comes here and signs a significant extension (it's true, he was not an unrestricted free agent, but he did not have to sign for 5 years, he could have just taken a 1 year deal and left if he was truly reluctant to come to the Oilers). Beyond that, last off season we signed Roloson, Sykora, and Tjarnqvist. One big name contract, and three decent ones in 2 years of the 'new NHL' suggests that players do want to come to Edmonton.

Honestly, I really think the idea that free agents don't want to come here is a myth perpetuated by the media.

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03-02-2007, 03:51 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
I don't think it is necessarily that unlikely that we improve upon our team. Our team was not exactly superstellar with Ryan Smyth in the lineup. Yes, it's weaker now, but I'm much more concerned about our defensive corps than the forwards.

The guy I'd really like to get is Kimmo Timonen, and there's a host of other players as well. Jersey is probably going to have to choose between Rafalski and Martin. Redden may be available. While I don't know if I like Souray if it is JUST Souray, if we get Souray and another good defenseman, I don't know if I'd be that heartbroken.

Our current young defensemen will probably become decent defensemen, and I think they are viable trading assets. Same goes for the large chunk of forward prospects and draft picks that we have. Even though he has a huge contract, I am still a huge Brad Richards fan. And I think his large contract means that, asset wise, he can be had for cheaper than otherwise. With the asset acquisition, and depending on what happens in free agency, Pitkanen could still be had. The nice thing about having a large prospect pool is that you can "overpay" (god I hate that word) and not strip your prospect pool clean.

Speaking of stripped prospect pools, if Atlanta does poorly this season after the trade they made for Tkachuk, it's possible that our yount assets will be highly thought of for them. Perhaps we can use them to acquire a talent like Marian Hossa.

I don't know if the opportunities are necessarily all that bleak. With a salary cap, player turnover increases and the ability to bounce back after a poor season increases with it.
Fair enough. I suppose the debate then comes full circle back to how much Smyth is exactly worth to this team, or any team for that matter. I think he's worth more than some people give him credit for, but I'm basing that opinion on the arguments made elsewhere by people whose knowledge and smarts I happen to have alot of time for.

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03-02-2007, 03:54 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
Oh totally, I fully agree. Ryan who? indeed.

I guess that's my other concern, the Oilers now have 5M or so in space that's not being spent on Smyth, so they have to find a player who can replace all that Smyth brought to the team, at less or equal money. And if it's done in a trade, the players going the other way have to be equal to or less than the equivalent value of O'Marra, Nilsson and th 17th (or so) overall pick.

I don't know if it necessarily has to be like that either. Oilers may have 5M or so in capspace, but that doesn't mean they have to find a player specifically within that value. If we bring in a 6M player, and he's better than Smyth, our team may still be better. I don't think Lowe is just blowing smokes up our bum when he says it was a hockey decision, not a financial decision. I don't think they would have a problem affording Ryan Smyth. I think the issue was whether or not he was worth that. Given the results we had with a questionable defense, I imagine shoring it up is one of his priorities. Signing Ryan Smyth to more than what Lowe felt he was worth, would limit options for picking up a high-quality defenseman. And this is regardless of whether his cap is the official NHL salary cap, or an EIG salary cap. In both cases, it's a cap. He still has a finite amount of money to work with.

I could see them going and making plays for a bunch of defensemen (whether through trades or UFA signings), as well as players like Scott Hartnell.

Who knows, they might even shock and increase their payroll!

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03-02-2007, 03:55 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
Fair enough. I suppose the debate then comes full circle back to how much Smyth is exactly worth to this team, or any team for that matter. I think he's worth more than some people give him credit for, but I'm basing that opinion on the arguments made elsewhere by people whose knowledge and smarts I happen to have alot of time for.
If you're referring to the Oilogosphere, the opinion that Smyth is worth that kind of money is not exactly a consensus.

Believes that he is:

IOF
Grabia
MC
COI

Believes that he is not:

Lowetide (or, at the very least, he thinks Lowe made the right deal)
Black Dog
Myself
Lord Bob

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03-02-2007, 03:57 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
I think this is pretty much a myth. In the past, the team didn't compete for UFAs because of the optics of being a small market NHL franchise.

The first year after the lockout, Pronger comes here and signs a significant extension (it's true, he was not an unrestricted free agent, but he did not have to sign for 5 years, he could have just taken a 1 year deal and left if he was truly reluctant to come to the Oilers). Beyond that, last off season we signed Roloson, Sykora, and Tjarnqvist. One big name contract, and three decent ones in 2 years of the 'new NHL'.

Honestly, I really think the idea that free agents don't want to come here is a myth perpetuated by the media.
I dunno, I guess we'll find out this summer. I'm sure the mid-level talents don't mind signing here when their options are limited elsewhere (where was Tjarnqvist gonna play if Edm didn't sign him?). I'm not so sure about the elite players though who tend to have alot more suitors. Yes Pronger did sign here, but he also left a year later for "personal reasons", probably because his wife didn't like it much, which is undoubtibly a concern for some other UFAs. It's not like it was the first time it happened either, see Nedved in 04 and Peca (I think it played a role) last year.

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03-02-2007, 03:59 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
If you're referring to the Oilogosphere, the opinion that Smyth is worth that kind of money is not exactly a consensus.

Believes that he is:

IOF
Grabia
MC
COI

Believes that he is not:

Lowetide
Black Dog
Myself
Lord Bob

I'm referring to the stats guys who do this stuff, namely the IOF guys and MC.

I do have alot of time for Lowetide and Blackdog though, even if they don't do the stats stuff themselves.

But if we're debating this "Smyth would have been overpaid in comparison to his contemporaries" topic based soley on stats, then the guys who specialize in the stats will count for more in my books.

I mean, if I want an opinion on a prospect, I go to LT, not Mudcrutch. If I want an analysis of how valuable Sheldon Souray is exactly, I'd look for Vic or Dennis or Rivers.

That's what I love about the Oilogosphere, some really smart (and quite entertaining) people who cover a fairly wide terrain.

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03-02-2007, 04:00 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
If you're referring to the Oilogosphere, the opinion that Smyth is worth that kind of money is not exactly a consensus.

Believes that he is:

IOF
Grabia
MC
COI

Believes that he is not:

Lowetide (or, at the very least, he thinks Lowe made the right deal)
Black Dog
Myself
Lord Bob
Not that it carry's any weight, but I think the deal is a solid one for the Oilers. Smyth isn't worth that money.

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03-02-2007, 04:10 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
But if we're debating this "Smyth would have been overpaid in comparison to his contemporaries" topic based soley on stats, then the guys who specialize in the stats will count for more in my books.
I didn't base my argument solely on stats. You do realize that all the "comparables" I posted have better numbers and cheaper/shorter contracts than Smyth had on the table from Lowe. I am willing to concede some difference based on the fact that Smyth does his outscoring in a tough minute environment (I am very familiar with Gabe's formula at behindthenet, and I think VERY highly of his findings).

6. Tough Minutes and Outscoring Ability.

Here is where you make up the ground between a Jason Arnott and a Ryan Smyth. Their numbers may be similar, but Smyth has taken a much harder road (especially in the last couple years). Still, is this ability really worth in excess of 1m dollars per season on top of the fact that Arnott outscores Smyth? I just can't bring myself to believe that it is.

7. Character and Loyalty.

The above is why I wouldn't have been upset if Smyth had signed for 5.4m/5. By all measurements, even that would have been any overpay. However, one that is understandable due to the intangibles that Ryan Smyth brings to a team. Can you put a dollar value on this sort of thing? Frankly, I think Kevin Lowe did, and that's why he went as high as 27m/5. It's just too bad that they couldn't work things out.

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03-02-2007, 04:22 PM
  #62
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Finally a decent thread to post in.

Smyth being worth 5 million in my opinion over five years was justified through all the variables you've mentioned kinger. Through saying that, Lowe did the right thing. Smyth did ask for more than I assumed meaning I didn't think he'd have a problem signing at 5mill/5yrs.

I'm p****** not seeing Smyth in Oil silks, and would much like Smyth to still be an Oiler.. but reality is what it is.

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03-02-2007, 04:22 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
7. Character and Loyalty.

The above is why I wouldn't have been upset if Smyth had signed for 5.4m/5. By all measurements, even that would have been any overpay. However, one that is understandable due to the intangibles that Ryan Smyth brings to a team. Can you put a dollar value on this sort of thing? Frankly, I think Kevin Lowe did, and that's why he went as high as 27m/5. It's just too bad that they couldn't work things out.[/B]

I must have missed this. Aren't we basically in agreement then? I don't quite see how 5.4 and 5.5 is that big a difference. I mean, a couple cents in the rise of the CDN dollar and the difference is wiped out. I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but.... I don't really think that $100K would kill the Oilers 5 years down the line. Even if they're up against the cap, the can waive a fourth liner on a one way (ie whoever the 2010 equivalent of Brad Winchester is) and pay his salary in the minors where it doesn't affect the cap.

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03-02-2007, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
I didn't base my argument solely on stats. You do realize that all the "comparables" I posted have better numbers and cheaper/shorter contracts than Smyth had on the table from Lowe. I am willing to concede some difference based on the fact that Smyth does his outscoring in a tough minute environment (I am very familiar with Gabe's formula at behindthenet, and I think VERY highly of his findings).

[B]6. Tough Minutes and Outscoring Ability.

Here is where you make up the ground between a Jason Arnott and a Ryan Smyth. Their numbers may be similar, but Smyth has taken a much harder road (especially in the last couple years). Still, is this ability really worth in excess of 1m dollars per season on top of the fact that Arnott outscores Smyth? I just can't bring myself to believe that it is.
The tough minutes stuff IS stats though. And I figure if those stats guys at IOF et al are as unsentimental as I think they are, they still seem to support paying Smyth 5.5 or 5.6 or whatever without the "intangibles" thrown in.

In any case, I have to run. But I look forward to you challenging MC on his site whenever he gets around to his post on why Smyth is worth 5.5MM.

Edit, what MC actually says on his site is that he's going to look at whether Smyth is an elite player or not this weekend. Given the way he's been going after Lowe though, I don't think he'd be doing that right now if he felt Lowe was actually right when he calls Smyth a very good player rather than an elite one.


Last edited by Injektilo: 03-02-2007 at 04:32 PM.
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03-02-2007, 04:34 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Injektilo View Post
I must have missed this. Aren't we basically in agreement then? I don't quite see how 5.4 and 5.5 is that big a difference. I mean, a couple cents in the rise of the CDN dollar and the difference is wiped out. I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but.... I don't really think that $100K would kill the Oilers 5 years down the line. Even if they're up against the cap, the can waive a fourth liner on a one way (ie whoever the 2010 equivalent of Brad Winchester is) and pay his salary in the minors where it doesn't affect the cap.
No, we are not in agreement. If indeed the difference was only 100k (there are reports that say 300k, including a quote from Ryan where he almost said he would have signed if it was that little), then it shouldn't have gotten to that in the first place. Smyth should have agreed to any contract that Lowe offered in excess of 25m over 5 years, because it would have been a generous offer.

I said I would not have been upset if Lowe had signed him for 5.4m, that doesn't mean I approve of the offer (I would have sucked up the fact that he overpaid Smyth).

Thus Lowe made the right choice - even if it meant he didn't pay that extra 500k - and dealt Ryan to the Island.


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03-02-2007, 04:37 PM
  #66
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Just a non-data related thought here...

I am wondering how much a factor the mindset of the players and their agents fit into contract negotiations these days based on the fact that the NHL has a pretty ugly history of the owners taking the boots to the players.

Let's face it, the players were basically exploited for a long, long time... and in the last 10 to 15 years we've seen the NHLPA and player agents seemingly gaining a great deal of power - some of it probably based on the idea that it is essential to "get back" at the owners and/or GM's by squeezing them for every last cent.

Up until the cap, it tended to work more often than not because there was no limit to what certain teams could pay. Now, that dynamic has changed significantly.

In the case of Ryan Smyth, Tuesday evening he was probably questioning whether his priorities were truly in the right place.

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03-02-2007, 06:41 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
exactly I wish people would get it through their thick skulls that the world does not revolve around Ryan Smyth, there are other things that need to be taken care of first.
I wish some people would get it through their thick skulls that it is important to take care of our star, especially when they have proven themselves loyal for 12 years.
You can't honestly say that Pisani is worth what he is being paid. Who would would you rather have Smyth or Pisani?

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03-02-2007, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by imkinger View Post
You disagree with my assertion that Smyth isn't worth 5.5+ based on an article that stipulates that Lowe should have signed him first?

Nice work.
Did you actually read the article I linked in my post? But nice try anyway!

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03-02-2007, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by bigredoiler View Post
I wish some people would get it through their thick skulls that it is important to take care of our star, especially when they have proven themselves loyal for 12 years.
You can't honestly say that Pisani is worth what he is being paid. Who would would you rather have Smyth or Pisani?

It has nothing to do with if Horcoff and Pisani being overpaid. To say that the Smyth contract should have been given top priority over other issues in the offseason doesn't make any sense and that is what the point of my post is.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 03-02-2007 at 09:27 PM. Reason: reworded - no one is stupid
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03-02-2007, 06:50 PM
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Dude, why are we putting ourselves through this?

Here is your argument:

Smyth should be overpaid

BECAUSE

1. He is the face of the franchise.
2. He gave the team an identity.
3. Kevin Lowe should overpay because the EIG should be able to afford it.
4. Loss in merchandise sales.
5. Pissed off fans.

I already showed you that half of these things don't justify overpaying (gives the team an identity, Overpay because they can afford to [this one is a real doozy], Pissed off fans), and I also asserted that all of them are based on loose conclusions. What more do you want?

Your points aren't justified because what Symth was asking wasn't overpayment, it was fair value.

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03-02-2007, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
It has nothing to do with if Horcoff and Pisani being overpaid. To say that the Smyth contract should have been given top priority over other issues in the offseason is STUPID and that is what the point of my post is.
Using insults never proved a point.

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03-02-2007, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by bigredoiler View Post

Your points aren't justified because what Symth was asking wasn't overpayment, it was fair value.
at the lowest Smyth asked for 5.5 now is not fair value it is an overpayment, 5.5 in year 5 is a sevre overpayment

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03-02-2007, 06:59 PM
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Using insults never proved a point.
when it deals with throwing out stupid comments like why wasn't Smyth's contract our top priority then the description I used warrents it, especiall yif you have to repeat yourself 20 times. I went out and threw out a comment like the sky is pink and repeated it many times I would be called a ___ moron and I would fully expect that.

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03-02-2007, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
when it deals with throwing out stupid comments like why wasn't Smyth's contract our top priority then the description I used warrents it, especiall yif you have to repeat yourself 20 times. I went out and threw out a comment like the sky is pink and repeated it many times I would be called a ___ moron and I would fully expect that.
Just because I don't agree woth you doesn't warrent insults. you insults show how you lack maturity and intelligence.

BTW, did you actually read the article I linked for are you just being ignorant?

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03-02-2007, 07:10 PM
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"Those that have said that Smyth was worth $6 million were wrong before, and are still wrong. He's not that good of a player."

But he IS this year.

And having a career year is often all that matters in new contract negotiations, whether it's right or not.

Unfortunately, for you, Oilers fans, and people that want to believe that he's worth $5.4 million and no more, he's not going to sign for less July 1.

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