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12-12-2003, 07:15 AM
  #1
SunshinesDad
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Question for all you hockey experts

I am just curious what everyone thinks is the problem with the Oilers goal scoring woes?

I use to get so mad at this team for having game after game with under 20 shots on net and many periods with 1 or 2 shots on net. I was sure that if they just shoot more they would score more. Well, now they are getting between 30 and 45 shots on a fairly regular basis so why aren't they scoring more goals?

Are they just snake bitten and it will come around? Are they consistently running into hot goalies? Are they shooting from bad spots? Is it because no one is going to the front of the net? Is it because we don't have enough skill on the team (I don't believe this is the reason)?

I am confused and perplexed as to the lack of scoring with this many shots.

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12-12-2003, 07:27 AM
  #2
Seachd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunshinesDad
Are they just snake bitten and it will come around?
I sincerely hope this is the case. They were scoring plenty before, and I'd like to think they'll snap out of it pretty soon.

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12-12-2003, 07:37 AM
  #3
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the whole reason (as far as i see it anyhow) is that they arent getting scoring from "odd" sources, like they were earlier in the season.... torres has cooled right down, reasoner has been hurt and it has seemed to take the life right out of the 3rd line.... and our 4th line has been moved around so much due to injuries and laraques inconsistant play, that it hasnt had a chance to get going at all..... oates has also been a pretty big dissapointment so far - whether due to conditioning or just poor play i dont know - so this has also contributed to the 2nd lines scoring problems

if we can keep isbister in the lineup for more than 3 games, lol ..... and once reasoner comes back (next week?) i think we might start seeing a bit more production out of the 3rd-4th lines

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Old
12-12-2003, 07:43 AM
  #4
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my opinion is that the oilers don't have enough brains.

they have some raw talent on the team but talent alone does not make you a good hockey player or team (see daigle or cleary for more info).

for example, i watched Nash make a move in front of the net the other day that blew my mind. he took a feed from behind the net and then went from the forehand to the backhand (in close i might add) and slid the puck by the goalie. the only player on the oilers who would make a move like that is hemsky. the rest of them would have banged the puck right into the goalie's pads. over and over again. bang bang bang. there's three shots on goal. three shots that had absolutely no chance of going in the net. when the oilers take 40 shots on goal 30 of those shots are right at the goalie. and they aren't even smart low shots (that may give up a rebound). they are shots right into the logo or glove. so the opposition goalie really only has to make about a dozen quality stops. it's the oilers shooters that make him look good. worst of all, i saw rita score a goal similar to Nash when he had his cup of coffee last year. and hence the second problem... brains in the coaching staff.

our "crack squad" would rather put pluggers like horcoff and pisani on the ice then a player with decent hands. certainly rita doesn't "grind" like a macT player. nah. he just has a goalscorer’s poise. nothing special. and then there's the "special "teams. for some reason they haven't caught on to the fact that "shooting from the point is not freakin working". every other team has figured out that the oilers will shoot from the point - hence why they pressure hard and force turnovers. oh, and you need defensemen with good footspeed to kill penalties - not cory cross and scott fergusson. i mean, i'm just a fan and these things seem patently obvious to me.

anyway, that's my opinion. i feel better now. thanks.

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Old
12-12-2003, 07:56 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawnDemon
our "crack squad" would rather put pluggers like horcoff and pisani on the ice then a player with decent hands. certainly rita doesn't "grind" like a macT player. nah. he just has a goalscorer’s poise. nothing special. and then there's the "special "teams. for some reason they haven't caught on to the fact that "shooting from the point is not freakin working". every other team has figured out that the oilers will shoot from the point - hence why they pressure hard and force turnovers. oh, and you need defensemen with good footspeed to kill penalties - not cory cross and scott fergusson. i mean, i'm just a fan and these things seem patently obvious to me.

anyway, that's my opinion. i feel better now. thanks.
Just a couple of things... Rita actually does grind it out, but according to reports, and the horrible start he had in Toronto, he didn't deserve to be in the NHL.

And If you look at Igor's numbers, Cross and Ferguson aren't killing the PK, Staois and Smith are. In fact, using the numbers Igor brought up, Cross is the 2nd best penalty killing defencemen the Oilers have behind Brewer.

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12-12-2003, 08:24 AM
  #6
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I think its bad luck, it has only been 8 games where they have had 'scoring woes', before that they were in the top 5 in goal scoring. I think the Isbister/Reasoner injuries have been a factor, as well as Oates taking some time to warm up. I thin khe will help us, it will take time though. Those 3 things are a lot to handle i think. Within a few games the oilers will score 5 goals in a game, and all will be normal again...maybe.

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Old
12-12-2003, 08:28 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Just a couple of things... Rita actually does grind it out, but according to reports, and the horrible start he had in Toronto, he didn't deserve to be in the NHL.

And If you look at Igor's numbers, Cross and Ferguson aren't killing the PK, Staois and Smith are. In fact, using the numbers Igor brought up, Cross is the 2nd best penalty killing defencemen the Oilers have behind Brewer.
according to "watching him play" horcoff doesn't deserve to be in the AHL never mind the NHL. frankly, neither do chimera and laraque. in my humble opinion, a slumping (depressed) kid with good hands is better than those three any day. at least he has a legitimate chance of breaking out and becoming a quality player - given half a chance. i mean, could he really be worse than chimera and laraque have been?

and, actually, nobody is killing the penalties. i've seen fergy screw up a couple kills over the last few games although I'll concede that it is most often staios and smith. however, with regard to cross there is no such thing as "second best penalty killer" on a team with a 74% kill rate. a more accurate phrase would be 5th worst. anyway, i ran out of steam in my first post or I would have ranted about the fact that horcoff is often on the ice "pressuring the point" (usually by falling down or giving them the puck) with smith and staios. not excusing smith and staios completely mind you - they have played poorly. but horcoff should NEVER be on the ice on the PK. meanwhile, brewer and cross seem to be most often out with reasoner and moreau (stoll in place of reasoner of late). now which paring is set up with the best chance of success?

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Old
12-12-2003, 08:49 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawnDemon
according to "watching him play" horcoff doesn't deserve to be in the AHL never mind the NHL. frankly, neither do chimera and laraque. in my humble opinion, a slumping (depressed) kid with good hands is better than those three any day. at least he has a legitimate chance of breaking out and becoming a quality player - given half a chance. i mean, could he really be worse than chimera and laraque have been?
Unfortunately contracts play into it. Both Chimera and Horcoff's play last year gave management every indication that they were full time NHL players, and got one way contracts out of the deal. Plus the whole waiver factor... it's a tough spot. You don't want to give guys like Chimera and Horcoff away for someone who could end up doing the same thing they did. Remember when everyone was so pissed Chimera wasn't a fulltime Oiler 2 years ago?

Quote:
and, actually, nobody is killing the penalties. i've seen fergy screw up a couple kills over the last few games although I'll concede that it is most often staios and smith. however, with regard to cross there is no such thing as "second best penalty killer" on a team with a 74% kill rate. a more accurate phrase would be 5th worst. anyway, i ran out of steam in my first post or I would have ranted about the fact that horcoff is often on the ice "pressuring the point" (usually by falling down or giving them the puck) with smith and staios. not excusing smith and staios completely mind you - they have played poorly. but horcoff should NEVER be on the ice on the PK. meanwhile, brewer and cross seem to be most often out with reasoner and moreau (stoll in place of reasoner of late). now which paring is set up with the best chance of success?
Once again, using Igor's numbers, Moreau has been a culprit on the pk as well. Cross was getting scored on once every 10 minutes on the pk (which using math in it's simplest form means 1 for 5 on the power play, ignoring 5 minute majors). Smith and Staois were giving up a goal once every 6 minutes (dumb math again - 1 for 3 on the pp). I think Moreaus numbers are similar to Staois/Smith if I recall correctly.

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Old
12-12-2003, 09:07 AM
  #9
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I'm going to get slayed for this, but I think one of the biggest problems on the PK has been Ty Conklin. Don't get me wrong, he's played well, and makes some great saves. But his outright refusal to freeze the puck has cost the team a bunch of times, including the first goal last night. This "Thank you sir, may I have another" buisiness puts a whole lot more pressure on an already fragile group. They will clean this up, and will start to score. I think Isbister is a second or two of concentration when charging the net from really breaking out. He make great moves, but either gets in too close, or has the puck roll on him. Dvorak is just plain unlucky, as is Mike York. The goals will come for this team, and I think they have a long unbeaten steak in them, once they get their full lineup back, and the off ice crap is taken care of.

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Old
12-12-2003, 09:23 AM
  #10
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I think the reason they have been snake bitten around the net has alot to do with where they're taking their shots from. When the Oilers were hot earlier on this year, alot of there goals were garbage goals, for example, almost all of Jarrett Stoll and Raffe Torres goals have come from goal mouth scrambles.

Last night I discoved a really cool feature that NHL.COM has added, it's called IceCast, and it shows where every shot was taken from, I noticed it last night and although the Oilers achieved 44 shots, there was almost a perfect semi circle infront of the net where no shots were taken from, poor shot selection? or maybe the scouting reports of other teams proved that if you keep the Oilers shots to the outside, that they dont have the "shooters" to score from outside; Hemsky might make them respect that aspect now. I went back earlier on to the Icecast to try giving a link of some sort, but they reset it after the game. So if any of you guys are on your computers during the game tonight, go over to NHL.COM and check out the Launch IceCast feature, its really neat; and we'll see if the Oilers can get they're shots off from more "high percentage areas".

It can be found in the scoreboard section, scroll all the way down to Phoenix vs Edmonton and its the last option in Red.


Last edited by Mowzie: 12-12-2003 at 09:27 AM.
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Old
12-12-2003, 09:27 AM
  #11
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I really don't think the line combinations are good... I really would like to see

Torres - Smyth - Hemsky
York - Oates - Dvorak
Moreau - Reasoner - Pisani
Isbister - Stoll - Chimera

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Old
12-12-2003, 09:30 AM
  #12
LawnDemon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilercreeper
I really don't think the line combinations are good... I really would like to see

Torres - Smyth - Hemsky
York - Oates - Dvorak
Moreau - Reasoner - Pisani
Isbister - Stoll - Chimera
i think the general concensus is that smyth is not a good centerman. however, if you swat spots between smyth and york you might be on to something.

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Old
12-12-2003, 10:07 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mowzie
I think the reason they have been snake bitten around the net has alot to do with where they're taking their shots from. When the Oilers were hot earlier on this year, alot of there goals were garbage goals, for example, almost all of Jarrett Stoll and Raffe Torres goals have come from goal mouth scrambles.
I agree completely that the shot selection has been terrible. I didn't see the game last night but I sat and watched them a couple of times during the last homestand and it looked like they had been told that they would be benched if they didn't shoot so they were shooting the moment they got it over the blue line even when they had 3 or 4 more strides of free ice to get in closer. It was like when the goals stopped going in the whole team was threatened that if they didn't shoot they wouldn't play and consequentlythey shot the moment they got the puck. That makes it difficult to get those garbage goals because you have to wait for your linemate to get to the net before shooting. And this, imo, is what has lengthened (not caused) the drought. If you look back at the stats I think you will see that the shots on goal rose dramatically after they had trouble scoring for 3 or 4 games.

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12-12-2003, 02:03 PM
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I think the "shoooooooot" people have finally got to them...they get 45 shots a game but now get as many or less quality shots...LMHF#1 and I have discussed that and think we would be better off taking 10 quality shots than 45 ****** shots with maybe 3 of them being quality...

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12-12-2003, 02:16 PM
  #15
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thank you mowzie i am going to check that out tonight. the oilers are getting a lot of pucks on net, but from where im sitting(with a beer on the couch wife shovelling snow, uuummm no ) a lot of them are not quality scoring chances.

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12-12-2003, 07:24 PM
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Actually just looking at the IceCast for the Phoenix game, It looks like all there shots were from high percentage areas, they must of worked on that in practice.

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12-12-2003, 07:58 PM
  #17
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I'm no hockey expert, just a fan, but here's what I think.

I don't think they have any scoring woes. In each season there is an ebb and flow, and right now the tide is out for the Oilers.

They're a 7th-10th place team that will probably score 10-15 goals more than they give up at season's end. If they falter that number might end up being -15, but they're clearly somewhere in that area.

York, Hemsky, Smyth and Torres (I think) are on track for about 20 goals or more this season, with guys like Dvorak likely to pop 15. The 3rd and 4th lines are chipping in, too.

The backline isn't consistent, but that's pretty typical too. A few weeks back Staios was finding the range, now Cross gets a point more often than not. Soon it will be Brewer's turn.

The Oilers are climbing out of a pretty bad streak right now, but they'll have a stretch where they look like world beaters too.

That's what young teams do, and that's why MacT looks like he hasn't slept since Canada Day.

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12-12-2003, 08:04 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
I'm no hockey expert, just a fan, but here's what I think.

I don't think they have any scoring woes. In each season there is an ebb and flow, and right now the tide is out for the Oilers.

They're a 7th-10th place team that will probably score 10-15 goals more than they give up at season's end. If they falter that number might end up being -15, but they're clearly somewhere in that area.

York, Hemsky, Smyth and Torres (I think) are on track for about 20 goals or more this season, with guys like Dvorak likely to pop 15. The 3rd and 4th lines are chipping in, too.

The backline isn't consistent, but that's pretty typical too. A few weeks back Staios was finding the range, now Cross gets a point more often than not. Soon it will be Brewer's turn.

The Oilers are climbing out of a pretty bad streak right now, but they'll have a stretch where they look like world beaters too.

That's what young teams do, and that's why MacT looks like he hasn't slept since Canada Day.
I am just confused that fans are suprised by this.

The same thing has been happening since the Oilers started their playoff run back in 1997. 3 years ago when they won 10 in a row to make the post season, they were a .500 club the rest of the season (which wasn't overly hot).

This team has played pretty well in the past few games (minus Carolina). They have really outplayed their opposition, and it at least shows that they are working hard, and when you work hard, results will come.

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12-12-2003, 08:15 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by jadeddog
oates has also been a pretty big dissapointment so far - whether due to conditioning or just poor play i dont know - so this has also contributed to the 2nd lines scoring problems
Just saw this and wanted to make a quick note on Oates. He is a notoriously slow starter and this year I think it is amplified by the fact he has only played seven games so far. Actually, I think someone predicted here that after half a dozen games or so people would be questioning the move to sign him. I am not. Last year in Anaheim I followed Oates pretty closely (cause he was on my fantasy team) and he started very slowly, to the point where I nearly dropped him to the waiver wire. Then Oates got injured last year (and I was really worried) but when he came back Oates was one of Anaheims top players until the end of the season. So my advice is to patiently wait, he will come around. In the meantime his 12-18 faceoff wins each night is a refreshing change from earlier in the season when that was the team total.

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12-12-2003, 08:22 PM
  #20
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I agree with Lawndemon. The Oiler team has always been built upon speed and forechecking. Unfortunately, post-glory years this team has had speed but very few finishers. Too many great skaters but poor hockey sense and finishing ability. Steve Kelly, Tyler Wright, Dean MacAmmond the list is long with great skaters; but hands not included.

The current Oiler drafting fixation is size. It now seems we won't look at a prospect unless he is 6'2" or taller. Hemsky stands alone in my eyes as the type of elite skill players required to lead this team and help them win close games. I really like Dvorak and York and appreciate their pure skills. However I don't view them as true elite gamebreakers.

Speed is great but until players like Chimera, Horcoff and the like show they can actually put the puck in the net, the effortless and often pointless skating they do is meaningless.

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