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Old
12-12-2003, 02:48 PM
  #1
Lowetide
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Random Thoughts.

1. The Oilers absolutely have to get better at turning their good young players into impact players. Tom Poti had some holes in his game, as did Mike Comrie. But guess what? So does Ales Hemsky.

I think we as fans are almost always guilty of jumping to conclusions, but this becoming a rather large folder in the MacT coaching resume.

2. Those second contracts Lowe hands out are turning into death. Dan Cleary looked like a hockey player right up until he signed a 3 year deal, and now Shawn Horcoff has stepped back after ebing rewarded. Maybe it's better to wait until these guys are Rem Murray's age before telling them they've arrived by giving out 3 year deals.

3. Am I the only one who thinks Lowe got terrific value from Anaheim? I like Comrie as a player alot, but a #1 pick plus Perry is a pretty solid payoff. The Oilers could turn around and deal one of those assets to Atlanta, Washington or New York for something that could help them right away. Solid payoff imo, but even Lowe didn't think so, so what the hell do I know?

4. It's time for let poor Jani Rita go I have no idea whether or not he's good enough, but the guy is clearly ready for a shot in the big leagues. Trade him, or play him, but don't waste him. Remember, his first contract is up at the end of this season, and the Oilers are not going to sign him to another 2-way contract (or at least that's very unlikely).

5. Why are people so down on Ryan Smyth? Let me get this straight: the guy changes position for the good of the team, struggles, and we're ready to send him out? This is a quality NHL player.


Okay, that's all, thanks for reading.

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12-12-2003, 03:09 PM
  #2
serum114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
3. Am I the only one who thinks Lowe got terrific value from Anaheim? I like Comrie as a player alot, but a #1 pick plus Perry is a pretty solid payoff. The Oilers could turn around and deal one of those assets to Atlanta, Washington or New York for something that could help them right away. Solid payoff imo, but even Lowe didn't think so, so what the hell do I know?
I actually agree with you here, however I think the value is only good in a vacuum.

If we were dealing Comrie to an Eastern Conference team for similar return (a late 2003 1st rounder and what looks to be a 10-20 pick in 2004) it would be cool. However, by sending a top 6 player to a team we're going to be battling for a playoff spot it tips the scales.

I would be happy with Woywitka and a 1st for Comrie (better player, worse pick, comparable value to the ANA deal) because I don't see MC being worth more than a pair of firsts.

However, I also honestly believe Lowe wants to shore up either the blueline or the C spot in any deal...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
4. It's time for let poor Jani Rita go I have no idea whether or not he's good enough, but the guy is clearly ready for a shot in the big leagues. Trade him, or play him, but don't waste him. Remember, his first contract is up at the end of this season, and the Oilers are not going to sign him to another 2-way contract (or at least that's very unlikely).
I say it's time to led Laraque/Horcoff/Chimera go, not Rita. I agree he's a pro quality player, but his game is too well suited to the Oilers, MacT and Lowe's post-2004 philosophy. I've often said it in the past and I'll say it again: Jani Rita is a player you make trades to make room for not trade because you have no room.

I honestly believe we have a Jere Lehtinen-esque player on our hands and we'd be better off letting Chimmer, BG or Horc try their hands at succeeding elsewhere than giving up Rita before giving him a shot.

Bold prediction: He'll be a regular by the end of March


Great post though LT, they're always appreciated.

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Old
12-12-2003, 03:56 PM
  #3
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Originally Posted by serum114
I say it's time to led Laraque/Horcoff/Chimera go, not Rita.
Problem with that. Lowe has given them all one-way deals for the most part for 3 years. I'm with Lowetide on this one... those contracts are just horrible... I'm thinking the Laraque one in particular. Couple that in with the long term contract with Ethan Moreau and Pisani..

Where the heck is there any room for any developing players? Methinks Lowe went a little crazy with the rewarding of players and didn't think that far ahead.

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Old
12-12-2003, 04:09 PM
  #4
elphy101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
1. The Oilers absolutely have to get better at turning their good young players into impact players. Tom Poti had some holes in his game, as did Mike Comrie. But guess what? So does Ales Hemsky.

I think we as fans are almost always guilty of jumping to conclusions, but this becoming a rather large folder in the MacT coaching resume.
I would tend to disagree on this. Tom Poti still has holes in his game. He was never going to be a good defensive defensemen.

In regards to Comrie. I think everyone forgets, he has only played 2.5 years in the NHL. And the last half of last year, when Comrie's flaws were exposed, he was playing with a broken thumb. In my opinion, Comrie's game rely's heavily on his ability to handle the puck, you can't do that with a broken thumb. I think people forget that before last season, Comrie was over +20 for the first year and a half of his career.

Hemsky I think the same applies it's still too early to know. However I do see where you coming from. The Oilers have not developed a superstar in alot of years. Despite some high draft picks, the Oilers have not developed a superstar since Doug Weight. Colorado in meantime has produced gems like Tanguay, Hejduk and to a lesser extent Chris Drury.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
3. Am I the only one who thinks Lowe got terrific value from Anaheim? I like Comrie as a player alot, but a #1 pick plus Perry is a pretty solid payoff. The Oilers could turn around and deal one of those assets to Atlanta, Washington or New York for something that could help them right away. Solid payoff imo, but even Lowe didn't think so, so what the hell do I know?
I agree you on this. A first rounder(right now 11th overall) and Corey Perry is pretty solid value for Comrie. I doubt Lowe will manage to do any better.

However I think alot of this depends on Corey Perry. Everything I read makes me think he was the steal of the draft but I don't know anything. Corey Perry would without a doubt be the deciding factor in the trade though.

But then again, Anaheim gets a young superstar that has already scored 30 goals in a year. Plus that young superstar is dirt cheap at a measly 1.65 per year for 2 years.

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12-12-2003, 05:14 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elphy101
Colorado in meantime has produced gems like Tanguay, Hejduk and to a lesser extent Chris Drury.
Drury is to a much lesser extent. He is at best a 2nd line centre, and that is doubtful. His big thing is that he is clutch in OT.

Tanguay is a direct product of his linemates, and is far from a superstar. He proved that the past 3 seasons, and to be a superstar, you have to be able to produce even when you aren't playing with Sakic or Forsberg.

Hejduk is defintely the real deal though.

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Old
12-12-2003, 05:20 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Drury is to a much lesser extent. He is at best a 2nd line centre, and that is doubtful. His big thing is that he is clutch in OT.

Tanguay is a direct product of his linemates, and is far from a superstar. He proved that the past 3 seasons, and to be a superstar, you have to be able to produce even when you aren't playing with Sakic or Forsberg.

Hejduk is defintely the real deal though.
I would have agreed with you on Tanguay until this season. When a player at times is leading the league in points, I think it's doubtful that his only reason for success is his linemates.

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Old
12-12-2003, 05:41 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
I would have agreed with you on Tanguay until this season. When a player at times is leading the league in points, I think it's doubtful that his only reason for success is his linemates.
He is certainly talented, just like Brendan Morrison is talented, but he is certainly a product of who he plays with.

A superstar can elevate a linemate up, Tanguay can't do that, at least not yet anyways.

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12-12-2003, 05:51 PM
  #8
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As a Flames fan, I do watch the Oilers a lot on my satellite dish. The more I see them, the more I think the problem isn't the personel, but the Coach. I think McT has to go. You have an excellent young team - just not the right direction. Fire McT and get yourselfs a coach that can get the most out of your players.

I have a few examples. On the PP, the Oilers are creative, however, they are not in sync. I see a team that is creating chances but not converting - why you ask? Because they don't have a system. It's a coaching thing. Get rid of McT, get a coach that can get the most out of these players - (or at least know how to coach - obviously McT doesn't know what he is doing). Anyway, hopefully Lowe gets his act together and does the right thing.

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Old
12-12-2003, 06:19 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
1. The Oilers absolutely have to get better at turning their good young players into impact players. Tom Poti had some holes in his game, as did Mike Comrie. But guess what? So does Ales Hemsky.

I think we as fans are almost always guilty of jumping to conclusions, but this becoming a rather large folder in the MacT coaching resume.
Reminds me of a post I made a few months ago. MacTavish doesn't really have a great record in developing young players so far. The only guy that really looks like he's developed from a 'meh' young player to a good young one has been Marty Reasoner (so far, until he got injured). Can you think of any young player that's taken a step forward this year? And how many can you name have taken a step back?

Quote:
2. Those second contracts Lowe hands out are turning into death. Dan Cleary looked like a hockey player right up until he signed a 3 year deal, and now Shawn Horcoff has stepped back after ebing rewarded. Maybe it's better to wait until these guys are Rem Murray's age before telling them they've arrived by giving out 3 year deals.
I really felt that Ethan Moreau deserved an extension, but $1.4 seems like it might have been a bit much. Laraque.. yowsa.

But as for 2nd contracts, I don't think it has anything to do with the contract.

Quote:
3. Am I the only one who thinks Lowe got terrific value from Anaheim? I like Comrie as a player alot, but a #1 pick plus Perry is a pretty solid payoff. The Oilers could turn around and deal one of those assets to Atlanta, Washington or New York for something that could help them right away. Solid payoff imo, but even Lowe didn't think so, so what the hell do I know?
With Perry you've got a 'maybe' player, and the 1st round pick you've got another 'maybe' that probobly won't even be in the league for 3 or 4 years. Down the road it could look good, but value wise, I have to say that the deal on the table with the Ducks (money included) is pretty lousy return. But that's just my opinion. I think Andy McDonald, Perry, and a 2nd or 3rd would be a bit better. At least then you get a tangible asset who you can dress this season.

Quote:
4. It's time for let poor Jani Rita go I have no idea whether or not he's good enough, but the guy is clearly ready for a shot in the big leagues. Trade him, or play him, but don't waste him. Remember, his first contract is up at the end of this season, and the Oilers are not going to sign him to another 2-way contract (or at least that's very unlikely).
You know how I feel about Rita. Decent AHL'er, nothing more. Just let him ride out this contract and let him go.

Quote:
5. Why are people so down on Ryan Smyth? Let me get this straight: the guy changes position for the good of the team, struggles, and we're ready to send him out? This is a quality NHL player.
You're right. Smyth isn't part of the problem.

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12-12-2003, 07:08 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
He is certainly talented, just like Brendan Morrison is talented, but he is certainly a product of who he plays with.

A superstar can elevate a linemate up, Tanguay can't do that, at least not yet anyways.
I agree but disagree at the same time. Right now, sure Forsberg and Sakic might carry him at times. But really, who better to learn from? IMO he will be Colorado's No.1 center post lockout if Sakic and Forsberg leave. And then he will dominant by himself (well dishing to Hejduk). The guy is just supremely talented.

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12-12-2003, 07:41 PM
  #11
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Can you think of any young player that's taken a step forward this year?
Umm...Raffi Torres? I know, one good one out of many who have taken a step back, but it's still something.

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12-12-2003, 07:45 PM
  #12
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Originally Posted by mamettt
Umm...Raffi Torres? I know, one good one out of many who have taken a step back, but it's still something.
How about Bergeron, Stoll, and Conklin.

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12-12-2003, 08:01 PM
  #13
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And Reasoner.

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12-12-2003, 08:06 PM
  #14
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And seeing as before that, the cupboard was pretty bare, I think those are some good results.

And I wouldn't discount Chimera yet, he is capable of being a solid player when he gets his brain involved.

I'd probably add Semenov to the list as well.

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12-12-2003, 08:07 PM
  #15
Mizral
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mamettt
Umm...Raffi Torres? I know, one good one out of many who have taken a step back, but it's still something.
Good point. Okay, two.

Semenov and Horcoff take steps backwards, and Brewer and Izzy stuck in neutral.

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12-12-2003, 08:12 PM
  #16
The Rage
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Originally Posted by Mizral
Good point. Okay, two.

Semenov and Horcoff take steps backwards, and Brewer and Izzy stuck in neutral.
Well, Semenov took a gigantic leap last year, so I don't think it's fair to bring him up. Anyway, he seems to slowly be getting back into it.

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12-12-2003, 08:54 PM
  #17
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Lowetide I always love your 'Random thoughts' threads.

1. DEVELOPING PROSPECTS
I agree with you that the Oilers need to start developing some prospects. Question: Whose job is it? Lowe's? Partly I suppose. MacT's? Definitely. I agree with all those saying that MacT just doesn't seem like the right man for the job right now. He seems to me like he would be great with older, more experienced players who know what they are supposed to do but with a young team like the Oilers are, he just doesn't seem to have them playing like they can/should.

2. SECOND CONTRACTS
Yikes. Yes some of these contracts have not worked out at all. These players continue to show flashes, well, except Cleary, but I hope in the future Lowe waits until he knows they have taken that proverbial 'next step' before signing them to these deals. When a player gets a great contract thrown at them they think they have arrived and there is no need to push.

3. COMRIE DEAL
I mostly agree with you (Lowetide). If anyone has been reading what I have posted on the other boards you may think I'm talking double talk, but hear me out. I think that Perry and a first is a great deal if it came from a team we didn't have to 'beat' for that last playoff spot. (Side note: I live in London and plan to go see Perry play ASAP if we aquire him. I've watched the team on the local channel a couple times and he has reminded me of Smyth, but maybe that's because he wears #94 ) However, the deal is from Anaheim. I just cant see how it benefits the Oilers to make this deal right now. The biggest winner in this deal would be Anaheim, and if they beat us out for the playoffs we would be the biggest losers of that deal. My feeling is that this is what Lowe is thinking and is precisely why he is asking for more. I am nearly to the point where I personally do not care what we get back so long as the whole mess is cleared up sooner than later. But yes I think Perry and a 1st is solid. Compare it to the Drury deal:
Perry = Reinprecht (not now but quite likely in the future)
1st > Warriner
Definitely this is good value.

4. JANI RITA
Get him in the lineup I say. If you have to deal Horcoff or Laraque for pick(s) then do so. put him on a line with Oates and let him loose. He has a great shot (played point on the pp in the last Toronto game I saw) and isn't afraid to use it (are you listening Mr Hemsky? jk).

5. RYAN SMYTH
He took on a very tough assignment no questions asked. IMO he should remain an Oiler for life. Ryan Smyth epitomizes what I think of when I think of Oiler Hockey. As for his performance, since switching back to wing, 5 points in 4 games. Nuff said.

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Old
12-12-2003, 10:50 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Semenov and Horcoff take steps backwards, and Brewer and Izzy stuck in neutral.
It's hard to say Semenov has taken any step back at all this season. He's been playing just as well this season as he was last. It can be argued that he's been more physical as well. (With Horcoff it's hard to argue, but he's been a very strong player of late with his past two performances).

How does Isbister get mentioned though? He isn't exactly a young player.. and he was only in the lineup after the trade deadline. I don't see how his name can be brought up in the comparison whatsoever.

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12-12-2003, 11:19 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by Mizral
You know how I feel about Rita. Decent AHL'er, nothing more. Just let him ride out this contract and let him go.
I don't understand how you can make this claim.. he has only played in a handful of games at the NHL level and was actually "on pace" to score 20 goals last season if you average out his totals over the year. While he had a somewhat disappointing year in the AHL last year, he has looked pretty good so far in Toronto and will likely get a call up within the month if any more players are injured. Give him a few more games in the NHL before you claim he's a decent AHL'er and "nothing more" ! The same could have been said about Bryan Allen who seems to be playing fairly decent now.. this is the first year he has cracked the Canucks lineup on a regular basis yet you likely didn't dismiss him a few years back.

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Old
12-12-2003, 11:38 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by momentai
It's hard to say Semenov has taken any step back at all this season. He's been playing just as well this season as he was last. It can be argued that he's been more physical as well. (With Horcoff it's hard to argue, but he's been a very strong player of late with his past two performances).

How does Isbister get mentioned though? He isn't exactly a young player.. and he was only in the lineup after the trade deadline. I don't see how his name can be brought up in the comparison whatsoever.

I also have to question the Isbister call, as he has played better than I expected. That said, I only expected him to play as he did last year.

Now, looking at the young players (1978 and newer models), and their direction;

<b><u>Forwards</u></b>
<b>MIKE YORK</b> - 28 games played, 21 points, plus 10. (341 career games, 214 career points!) - Amazing.
<b>ALES HEMSKY</b> - 27 games played, 20 points, minus 6 (played 86 regular season games) Wow, and still not legal to drink in Vegas.
<b>RAFFI TORRES</b> - 28 games played, 14 points, 8 goals, plus 3 (played 60 regular season games) Very nice.
<b>JARRET STOLL</b> - 16 games played, 7 points, plus 4. (played 20 regular season games) - Should not be worried about his spot.
<b>JASON CHIMERA</b> - 24 games played, 4 points, minus 1. Huge step backwards.
<b>SHAWN HORCOFF</b> - 27 games played, 10 points, minus 7. Huge step backwards.

<b><u>Defense</u></b>
<b>ERIC BREWER</b> - 23 games played, 5 points, zero plus/minus. I'll call this a step back - first year as a #1, still playing like a #3/4.
<b>ALEXEI SEMENOV</b> - 13 games played, two points, plus one. (played 59 career games) - not enough information to rank. Seems to be playing more physical, and is starting to let loose the amazing cannon. Coaching staff is bringing him on slowly. As such, am calling this a step back. Not sure why...
<b>MARC-ANDRE BERGERON</b> - 23 games played, 10 points, plus 3. I am not sure how to read him. I personally don't see how he can be effective, but he is. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop.

So, as I see it,
4 forwards have improved.
2 forwards have regressed.
2 defenseman have regressed.
1 defenseman has improved.

Not great, considering the talent pool. Not bad, considering the preponderance of a Sophmore "jinx."


Given a few years, this team will be impressive, however.

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Old
12-13-2003, 12:42 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
1. The Oilers absolutely have to get better at turning their good young players into impact players. Tom Poti had some holes in his game, as did Mike Comrie. But guess what? So does Ales Hemsky.

I think we as fans are almost always guilty of jumping to conclusions, but this becoming a rather large folder in the MacT coaching resume.
Can't disagree with you there we nede a youth movement to go forwards, for starters Lowe has amended this with a much improved coaching staff, let's see what happens post CBA with the current coaching staff that is less desirable and imo the next area of concern after the CBA war for upper management

Quote:
2. Those second contracts Lowe hands out are turning into death. Dan Cleary looked like a hockey player right up until he signed a 3 year deal, and now Shawn Horcoff has stepped back after ebing rewarded. Maybe it's better to wait until these guys are Rem Murray's age before telling them they've arrived by giving out 3 year deals.
Bad decisions but thankfully nothing that has killed the club, After last year none of us thought Horcoff would regress to what he has.

Quote:
3. Am I the only one who thinks Lowe got terrific value from Anaheim? I like Comrie as a player alot, but a #1 pick plus Perry is a pretty solid payoff. The Oilers could turn around and deal one of those assets to Atlanta, Washington or New York for something that could help them right away. Solid payoff imo, but even Lowe didn't think so, so what the hell do I know?
well i personally thought it was slight undervalue but if the rumours of two first rounders and perry for comrie are true then go for it!

Quote:
4. It's time for let poor Jani Rita go I have no idea whether or not he's good enough, but the guy is clearly ready for a shot in the big leagues. Trade him, or play him, but don't waste him. Remember, his first contract is up at the end of this season, and the Oilers are not going to sign him to another 2-way contract (or at least that's very unlikely).
He's gone i'm sure, to the east and either at the trade deadline or on draft day.

Quote:
5. Why are people so down on Ryan Smyth? Let me get this straight: the guy changes position for the good of the team, struggles, and we're ready to send him out? This is a quality NHL player.
People are stupid if they think we should send him out. He's a player that is capable of changing his game to suit others on his line and still be damn effective. He's the type of player that most coaches dream about for supporting the playmaker and sniper/power forward. Thats what we had when Weight and Guerin were here remember? Its just that now Weight and Guerin haven't been replaced. I think he'll have a chip on his shoulder when the Oilers hit their expected winning streak.

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