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Smyth keeps on ticking! Oh wait...;)

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Old
03-24-2007, 07:33 PM
  #51
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So say we resigned Smyth at $5.4 million ... are we suddenly a playoff team?

Sometimes you have to just tear the house down and rebuild from scratch. Guys like Horcoff, Pisani, Smith, etc. could easily be gone this summer too.

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03-24-2007, 07:33 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Smyth is a ppg player post cap with linemate scoring 25+ goals.

That is what I said.

Yet I get two responses that entirely ignore that suggestion and roll off the typical "Smyth isn't a ppg player, never has been , yada yada.

He is right now but has not had much chance to get assists in Edmonton lately due to being paired with other players who can't score to save their life.

Simple question. Which Oiler has Smyth played with post cap thats scored 25+goals in a season. this has profoundly negated his assists totals in Edmonton and some of us remember a player who is great at give and go, fast break, 2-on-1 with the right linemates. Smyth now has some linemates that can execute break plays properly and get goals on the rush.

Smyth can even have less than stellar days on the island and still notch an assist in a quieter game. In Edmonton nobody finishes that goal and he doesn't get the assist.

Heres a nice piece that offers some appreciation of what Smytty is.

http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/ho...ng_island.html

Smyth was a ppg with the Oilers this year also, he is not doing any better with the Islanders than he was with the incompetent scoring players of the Oilers. He is getting more assists, but significantly fewer goals, a point is a point. Smyth was not at a ppg rate last year, and the Oilers scored as many goals as the Islanders are going to this year. You make it sound like Smyth is doing better with the Islanders because he is getting more assists. I stand by my statement, regardless if smyth is getting his points as assists, or goals, it is the first time in his career that he is having a ppg season, and it is also the first time in his career that he will be a UFA.

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03-24-2007, 07:55 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
Smyth was a ppg with the Oilers this year also, he is not doing any better with the Islanders than he was with the incompetent scoring players of the Oilers. He is getting more assists, but significantly fewer goals, a point is a point. Smyth was not at a ppg rate last year, and the Oilers scored as many goals as the Islanders are going to this year. You make it sound like Smyth is doing better with the Islanders because he is getting more assists. I stand by my statement, regardless if smyth is getting his points as assists, or goals, it is the first time in his career that he is having a ppg season, and it is also the first time in his career that he will be a UFA.
Your missing my point that Smyths LINEMATES that he has been playing with in Edmonton don't score many goals. Team scoring is a moot point in this regard as the oilers were built more for scoring by committee. Last season was the best ever scoring year for Horcoff and Hemsky, the typical linemates, who have difficulty finishing.

Smyth WOULD have been ppg last season with linemates that could finish.

I can't proof this obviously but sit back one second and realize the impact of a player like Sillinger 25 goals, or Blake 37 goals, on Smyths point, and assists totals.

Blake now has 4 of the goals Smyth has assisted on

Compare this with the 19, and 16 goals that Smyths linemates in Edmonton obtained last season.

Smyth has 13 pts 4g 9a in 11games on the island. A slightly better pace so far on the island. But the assist are interesting in that in the 11 games he's .82assists/game whereas in Edmonton he was .41 assists/game. He's doubled his assists/game rate on the island and increased his pts rate. Limited sample so far but I don't expect much change.

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03-24-2007, 08:33 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
So say we resigned Smyth at $5.4 million ... are we suddenly a playoff team?
There's no "one" player the Oil could sign to make them a playoff team.

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03-24-2007, 08:35 PM
  #55
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how about Chris Pronger?

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03-24-2007, 08:38 PM
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Gee...do you thnik he might be playing with linemates who can score? Hemsky 10 goals...Horcoff 16. Jason Blake 37.

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03-24-2007, 08:40 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
how about Chris Pronger?
I don't think the Oilers would have made the playoffs last season without these players:

Roli

Samsonov

Peca

Tarnstrom

Spacek


So yes, even with Pronger, this team wont be a playoff team.

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03-24-2007, 08:45 PM
  #58
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I agree Vagabond...just kidding.

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03-24-2007, 08:53 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
I agree Vagabond...just kidding.
OH! HAHAHAH AHA HAH AH AHA ha ahahah ha ha

haha

ha

You kidder you!



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Old
03-24-2007, 09:31 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
So say we resigned Smyth at $5.4 million ... are we suddenly a playoff team?
This is generally the second most common thing I hear when people defend the Smyth trade.

You can't pin a team's fortunes on a single forward. It's a team game. Besides, as a first line LW Smyth is supposed to score goals, and he's done that beyond expectations in the last 2 years.

For the second half of the season, the Oilers have had the worst, and I mean THE WORST, defence corps in the league. Pure AHL stuff. Bad chips, bad passes, running around the zone, Matt Greene playing 25 minutes a night -- the entire offence has suffered.

Glad to hear Smytty is doing reasonably well on the Island. I'm cheering for that team, draft pick be damned.

I mean, do we really want Toronto or Carolina in the palyoffs?

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03-24-2007, 09:46 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Smyth WOULD have been ppg last season with linemates that could finish.

I can't proof this obviously but sit back one second and realize the impact of a player like Sillinger 25 goals, or Blake 37 goals, on Smyths point, and assists totals.

Blake now has 4 of the goals Smyth has assisted on

Compare this with the 19, and 16 goals that Smyths linemates in Edmonton obtained last season.

Smyth has 13 pts 4g 9a in 11games on the island. A slightly better pace so far on the island. But the assist are interesting in that in the 11 games he's .82assists/game whereas in Edmonton he was .41 assists/game. He's doubled his assists/game rate on the island and increased his pts rate. Limited sample so far but I don't expect much change.
What I am trying to say, is that Smyth last year with the same linemates on the Oilers did not have a ppg. This year, with linemates that were doing worse, he was at a ppg (even with the Oilers) His ppg has slightly increased, but its only been 11 games for the Isles. You saying the only reason that smyth wasnt a ppg player last year was because of his linemates. Well, this year, with those same linemates having worse years, Smyth was a ppg player. He is not playing better with the Islanders, he is getting more assists, but he is still essentially at a ppg rate.

Why is it that Smyth was a ppg player this year with the Oilers, with the same linemates as last year (each of them doing worse), when he wasnt one last year? I'm not trying to bash Smyth or anything, I'm just suggesting that one thing that has been seen in the past, is that players in contract years have an increase in points that doesn't fit in with the norm of the player.

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03-24-2007, 09:50 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I'm just suggesting that one thing that has been seen in the past, is that players in contract years have an increase in points that doesn't fit in with the norm of the player.
Or, is it more likely the case that:

whenever a player happens to score more points in his UFA year, fans take notice?

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03-24-2007, 09:50 PM
  #63
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Truth is this could be Smyth's peak/career year.

Lots of forwards generally top out at around age 31/32. I don't think Smyth will fall of completely, but it quite possible that in 1 or 2 years he will revert back to being a 20-25 goal/55-65 point type of guy as he was earlier in his career.

If we had Pronger still, then yes, Smyth would be resigned because we'd be competing for the Cup right now. But with no Pronger back there, then you have to start to look at possibly waiting 2-4 years before you can make a run at the Cup again. Which is the call Lowe made.

The Islanders also in general play a more "throw caution to the wind" approach in a more run n' gun conference. I'd like to see Islanders score that many goals if Kipprusoff, Fernandez, and Luongo were in their division (which can mean a possible 24 games against those three teams alone) ... not gonna happen.


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03-24-2007, 10:01 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouzar View Post
Or, is it more likely the case that:

whenever a player happens to score more points in his UFA year, fans take notice?
That could be it also Im not pretending to know everything, I'm just throwing out my opinion, I could be completely wrong, next season and future seasons will tell the story

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03-24-2007, 10:20 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Lots of forwards generally top out at around age 31/32.
This is another one of those casually-accepted truths that deserves closer inspection: while I agree that a hockey player hits his peak at about 30, I think his "decline" has been much exaggerated.

Hockey careers are rather long compared to other sports, and a player "in his prime" tends to stay within that range for a longer period.

Just taking a cursory look around the league at guys in their later 30s, the likes of Robert Lang, Jason Arnott, Keith Tkachuk, Jason Blake, Brendan Shanahan, and Mats Sundin peaked at about thirty but also kept scoring at about the same pace for many years afterward.

Just something to keep in mind.

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03-25-2007, 01:23 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouzar View Post
This is another one of those casually-accepted truths that deserves closer inspection: while I agree that a hockey player hits his peak at about 30, I think his "decline" has been much exaggerated.

Hockey careers are rather long compared to other sports, and a player "in his prime" tends to stay within that range for a longer period.

Just taking a cursory look around the league at guys in their later 30s, the likes of Robert Lang, Jason Arnott, Keith Tkachuk, Jason Blake, Brendan Shanahan, and Mats Sundin peaked at about thirty but also kept scoring at about the same pace for many years afterward.

Just something to keep in mind.
I have no problem tossing Smyth with all those guys except for Sundin. That guy is way better than Smyth and shouldn't be even compared to him.

Now the other guys you mentioned have all had 50, 60 and the occasional 70 point season during their 30s but here's the problem, none of those guys make anywhere close to the $5.5 to $6 million that Smyth is asking for.

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03-25-2007, 02:48 AM
  #67
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I have no problem tossing Smyth with all those guys except for Sundin. That guy is way better than Smyth and shouldn't be even compared to him.

Now the other guys you mentioned have all had 50, 60 and the occasional 70 point season during their 30s but here's the problem, none of those guys make anywhere close to the $5.5 to $6 million that Smyth is asking for.

I didn't say Smyth was better or worse than those players. I pretty much just grabbed their names at random because they were older than Smyth.

My point was that there generally isn't a precipitous drop in production after a player reaches the age of 30. The idea that Smyth is "too old" is rather overblown and too easily accepted.

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03-25-2007, 03:09 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Pouzar View Post
I didn't say Smyth was better or worse than those players. I pretty much just grabbed their names at random because they were older than Smyth.

My point was that there generally isn't a precipitous drop in production after a player reaches the age of 30. The idea that Smyth is "too old" is rather overblown and too easily accepted.
I think the "too old" argument does hold some validity especially in Smyth's case due to the kind of money he's asking for here and the fact that this isn't the old NHL system where you could afford overpaying a 30+ year old player.

With the cap system you can't be paying Smyth $6 million when he's 35 years old simply because it's just not smart. You have to play the odds here and the odds are against Smyth getting better as he gets older. With the fact that he takes a beating in front of the net and the fact he's not the most physically gifted player in terms of athletic ability (speed, etc.) I'd say the chance that Smyth's going to be on a decline in a year or two is pretty good.

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03-25-2007, 03:16 AM
  #69
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It was a mistake

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc Scurlock View Post
I think the "too old" argument does hold some validity especially in Smyth's case due to the kind of money he's asking for here and the fact that this isn't the old NHL system where you could afford overpaying a 30+ year old player.

With the cap system you can't be paying Smyth $6 million when he's 35 years old simply because it's just not smart. You have to play the odds here and the odds are against Smyth getting better as he gets older. With the fact that he takes a beating in front of the net and the fact he's not the most physically gifted player in terms of athletic ability (speed, etc.) I'd say the chance that Smyth's going to be on a decline in a year or two is pretty good.
it was a mistake today and even if the Oilers budget will always lag behind the cap it will still be a mistake in three years time when the cap's likely to be at ~56 mill

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03-25-2007, 03:31 AM
  #70
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it was a mistake today and even if the Oilers budget will always lag behind the cap it will still be a mistake in three years time when the cap's likely to be at ~56 mill
See I don't think the cap is going to get that high unless the NHL really takes off in the US and they get a sweet TV deal. I think you're seeing the cap jump like it's doing this year because the NHL was conservative in estimating their revenues after the lockout. I can see it topping out at around $50 million.

In a gate driven league there's only so much you can charge for tickets before people get fed up with all the increased costs.

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03-25-2007, 03:44 AM
  #71
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With the cap system you can't be paying Smyth $6 million when he's 35 years old simply because it's just not smart. You have to play the odds here and the odds are against Smyth getting better as he gets older.
Actually, it would have been $5.5 million, which is one Toby Petersen away from what many would have been happy with anyway.

And lest we forget: with a estimated yearly inflation rate of 2-3 per cent, we're talking $4.5 - $5 million in five years anyways, too. Not exactly the end of the world.

As a betting man, I like the odds of Smyth having 4-5 years of 25 plus goals better than Ryan O'Marra or Robert Nilsson having one season of that in the same span, but we'll see.

When it comes to goal scoring: it's as they say, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

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03-25-2007, 03:47 AM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc Scurlock View Post
I think the "too old" argument does hold some validity especially in Smyth's case due to the kind of money he's asking for here and the fact that this isn't the old NHL system where you could afford overpaying a 30+ year old player.
Its far easier to be 30+ in the postcap league. Especially parked in front of the net.

Quote:
With the cap system you can't be paying Smyth $6 million when he's 35 years old simply because it's just not smart. You have to play the odds here and the odds are against Smyth getting better as he gets older.
Why would he need to get better. What he brings to the table the last two years is sufficient.

Quote:
With the fact that he takes a beating in front of the net and the fact he's not the most physically gifted player in terms of athletic ability (speed, etc.) I'd say the chance that Smyth's going to be on a decline in a year or two is pretty good.
He doesn't take a beating in front of the net post cap. This has allowed his goal totals to take off.

I have no difficulty with Smyth as a skater either, very fluid, can avoid checks, strong on his feet, fantastic balance, dangerous on breakout with the right guys.

Smyth is one of those open ice guys that gives D fits 1-on-1 or 2-on-1 when paired with players that can pull off a give and go with consistency.

He's finding that right now on the island. Between the horc and Hemmer misfires that flow wasn't here consistently.

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03-25-2007, 03:57 AM
  #73
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it was a mistake today and even if the Oilers budget will always lag behind the cap it will still be a mistake in three years time when the cap's likely to be at ~56 mill
A grievous mistake.

But Matts we'll be talking about this one for years and our thoughts will be pegged as "after the fact analysis.."

KLowe could've likely had Smytty for 5M longterm at seasons start and I was shouting get it done at that time.

Smyth is rounding into the best hockey of his career and has gotten better at all aspects of the game to the point that he is elite pk, scorer, near elite on PP, plus his excellent breakout, passing game is well suited in the east and people are just now remembering what fantastic passing hands he has. Too bad he's been playing here with guys who have no sniff around the net


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03-25-2007, 01:56 PM
  #74
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Battle of NY on sopcast!

For the Smyth addicts who want to watch the game.

http://www.myp2p.eu/Programs/Sopcast.htm

Its on espn channel. Reasonable broadcast but changing channels during commercials. Sty tuned, Smyth IS on

4 rangers players just took out Smyth behind their net. making sure I guess, lol, But Smyth is getting more coverage than Jagr

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03-25-2007, 03:24 PM
  #75
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I don't know but I think trading Smyth was the right move and I wouldn't even sign him for 5.5 in the offseason and here is why.

Smyth has been with us for a long time, and for many of those years the Oilers were his team. The problem now becomes, in those year the Oilers have either missed the playoffs or been bounced in the 1st round. The only time Smyth ever had success was when he rode shotgun to Weight's teams and to Pronger's team.

Signing Smyth to 5.5 would really eliminate any chance of going out and getting a 6+ million guy meaning the Oilers would be Smyths team for another 5 years and we would likely have 5 more years of missing the playoffs/out in the first round. At the end of those 5 years, we would then still have to go through what we are going through now.

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