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Concern about Tavares

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Old
03-20-2007, 05:17 AM
  #51
Nalyd Psycho
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
Using that logic, you should have been willing to trade any of those Hall of Fame Oilers for 81-goal scorer Ray Sheppard.

I would have chosen all-time OHL single season record holder Ernie Godden (87 goals), but I figured my point might have been ironically lost if I had named someone most people on this board have likely never heard of.
Comapiring high scorers from their final year of junior eligability to non-draft eligable high scorers is always a false comparison.

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03-20-2007, 06:37 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by God Bless Canada View Post
Phil, you know I respect you, but I think your question is a foolish one. First of all, I think game winning goals can be overrated. OT winning goals are one thing, especially in the playoffs. But a guy scores the winning goal in a 7-1 victory. Does it really mean anything? Not really.

.
A 7-1 game doesnt mean much for the guy that gets the game winner. Its a blow out either way. I was just shocked to see him on none of those lists. I thought because of his goal output he'd be top 5 on most of them. I like the kid, he's great, and I'm not one of those critics that will talk about how he didnt block a shot despite getting a 4 goal game. I just thought it was rather unusual to not see him with a lot of clutch goals.

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03-20-2007, 07:21 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Wade Belak to Oshawa for John Tavares.

The Leafs get the franchise cornerstone they need, and the Generals get Wade Belak, who probably COULD score 30 goals, 40 assists, and 100 points against 17 year olds.

Belak would struggle to get 100 points in pee wee hockey.

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Old
03-20-2007, 09:27 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Comapiring high scorers from their final year of junior eligability to non-draft eligable high scorers is always a false comparison.
Not according to the original poster's criterion of rarity. That is, a 19-year-old who scores 87 goals is equally as rare in the history of the OHL as a 16-year-old who scores 72 goals, and twice as rare as a 16-year-old who scores 70 goals.

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Old
03-20-2007, 09:34 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Tb0ne View Post
What is to stop the NHL from changing their draft rules to allow Tavares into the 2008 Draft if he absolutely dominates the OHL and Memorial Cup during the 2007-2008 season?
The CBA, for one.

The risk of inviting lawsuits to change the draft rules for future "phenoms", for two.

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03-20-2007, 12:58 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
Not according to the original poster's criterion of rarity. That is, a 19-year-old who scores 87 goals is equally as rare in the history of the OHL as a 16-year-old who scores 72 goals, and twice as rare as a 16-year-old who scores 70 goals.
I didn't say it was rarity alone that was my main criterion, I said it was the rarity of a 16 year old player scoring 72 goals in the OHL.

Said rarity isn't necessarily transferable to different scenarios, otherwise you could say that I just as soon would've traded any player on the Pens not named Crosby for the only player in OHL history to have scored a 5 on 3 shorthanded overtime winner against a team he hadn't scored against all season, or some such nonsense.

Tavares' age and production are quite obviously the crux of my reasoning.

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03-20-2007, 04:12 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
I didn't say it was rarity alone that was my main criterion, I said it was the rarity of a 16 year old player scoring 72 goals in the OHL.

Said rarity isn't necessarily transferable to different scenarios, otherwise you could say that I just as soon would've traded any player on the Pens not named Crosby for the only player in OHL history to have scored a 5 on 3 shorthanded overtime winner against a team he hadn't scored against all season, or some such nonsense.

Tavares' age and production are quite obviously the crux of my reasoning.
Don't roll your eyes. Your easy dismissal of the "transferability" of Godden's feat assumes that Tavares will improve from 72 goals at 16 years old to significantly more than 87 goals at 19 years old.

In today's game of better coaching, better defensive systems and better depth of skill among all the players, I wouldn't bet my life on that happening. Although I acknowledge that most people who don't know a whole lot think it's merely a matter of extrapolating his stats from year to year.

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03-20-2007, 05:04 PM
  #58
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There's nothing wrong about suggesting that he would give up Malkin for the rights to Tavares. Of course it is ricky but it will proboly work out, even if Tavares doesn't live up to his hype he would be an equal prospect to Malkin. Don't you remember all these threads about how all these posters would rather have a proven player that has done it in the NHL over Crosby before he came into the league, I wonder if they would regret that now.

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03-20-2007, 05:08 PM
  #59
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the guys 16....hes good but hes got flaws in his game that need work.....he's 16 and people are concerned about him?tell me one hockey player who didnt have a flaw at 16?

As for the draft eligibility rules....they wont be changed and his agent has said he wont leave for europe hes in Oshawa until his draft

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Old
03-20-2007, 05:15 PM
  #60
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he had 4 GWG i know its not spectacular but his team only won 31 games... but a more telling stat would be game winning points... i know they dont track this but i think a game winning assist is just as important as the GWG

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Old
03-20-2007, 06:10 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
If I were a Kings fan, I'd trade my entire roster for Tavares if need be, then work from the ground up.
Well yeah, I'd do that too.

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Old
03-20-2007, 07:36 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by ilovehockey View Post
There's nothing wrong about suggesting that he would give up Malkin for the rights to Tavares. Of course it is ricky but it will proboly work out, even if Tavares doesn't live up to his hype he would be an equal prospect to Malkin. Don't you remember all these threads about how all these posters would rather have a proven player that has done it in the NHL over Crosby before he came into the league, I wonder if they would regret that now.
"... even if Tavares doesn't live up to his hype he would be an equal prospect to Malkin." Wow. IMO you know very little about both Malkin and Tavares.

As for Crosby, in my 25+ years of watching minor and junior hockey around eastern Canada, he is literally the only 16-year-old player for whose rights I would have traded an established NHL star of the time, with the possible exception of Eric Lindros at 16 years old. And that includes Thornton, Nash, Spezza and countless others at that age.

Trust me - forget about the stats. Tavares isn't in the same universe as Crosby at 16 in terms of an all-around skill set.

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Old
03-20-2007, 09:21 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
he had 4 GWG i know its not spectacular but his team only won 31 games... but a more telling stat would be game winning points... i know they dont track this but i think a game winning assist is just as important as the GWG
a more telling stat would be how many times he was on the ice for the game winning goals.....his prescence on the ice would be enough to create chances for other team mates.....

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Old
03-20-2007, 10:28 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
Don't roll your eyes. Your easy dismissal of the "transferability" of Godden's feat assumes that Tavares will improve from 72 goals at 16 years old to significantly more than 87 goals at 19 years old.

In today's game of better coaching, better defensive systems and better depth of skill among all the players, I wouldn't bet my life on that happening. Although I acknowledge that most people who don't know a whole lot think it's merely a matter of extrapolating his stats from year to year.
I didn't suggest anything about Tavares' ability to score more than 87 goals at 19 in the O, so please stop putting words in my mouth and then trying to refute them.

All that I ever said was that Tavares' almost unprecedented prodigious production was enough to convince me that he'd be worth a considerable calculated gamble. Not, as you misinterpreted, that I'd trade a Penguins star for any old junior who put up alot of goals, nor that Tavares will score more than 87 goals in a season before he leaves junior, though that is a distinct possibility.

Just that his goal-scoring at 16 bodes very well for his future, and that I'd take a risk to obtain him. Although I acknowledge that most people who don't know a whole lot like to take that sort of statement and attach all manner of other assumptions to it.

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03-21-2007, 12:29 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
I didn't suggest anything about Tavares' ability to score more than 87 goals at 19 in the O, so please stop putting words in my mouth and then trying to refute them.

All that I ever said was that Tavares' almost unprecedented prodigious production was enough to convince me that he'd be worth a considerable calculated gamble. Not, as you misinterpreted, that I'd trade a Penguins star for any old junior who put up alot of goals, nor that Tavares will score more than 87 goals in a season before he leaves junior, though that is a distinct possibility.

Just that his goal-scoring at 16 bodes very well for his future, and that I'd take a risk to obtain him. Although I acknowledge that most people who don't know a whole lot like to take that sort of statement and attach all manner of other assumptions to it.
I didn't have to put words in your mouth. You are willing to trade excellent NHL players for the rights to a 16-year-old junior based on his "almost unprecedented prodigious production" at that age. However, you are not willing to "trade a Penguins star for any old junior who put up a lot of goals", notwithstanding that player's unprecedented prodigious production at 19 years old.

It is a simple logical implication of these two premises that the 16-year-old will have to have better production than the 19-year-old for the first premise to continue to be true. Put another way, if you don't think Tavares is going to have better production than Godden at 19 years old, why would you be willing to trade the Penguins star to get him, when you would not be willing to do the same with Godden?

Of course there are many factors beyond goal production that go into determining a prospect's "transferability" to the next level. But that's not what you were talking about. What you said was that "Tavares' almost unprecedented prodigious production was enough to convince me that he'd be worth a considerable calculated gamble."

Quad erat demonstratum.

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Old
03-21-2007, 12:56 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
he had 4 GWG i know its not spectacular but his team only won 31 games... but a more telling stat would be game winning points... i know they dont track this but i think a game winning assist is just as important as the GWG
True. Probably likely he was in on a couple seeing as how he was in on nearly 50% of the team's goals all season.

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03-21-2007, 11:10 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
Now I feel so out of the loop. I've never heard Boris, only Nick Drake.

I guess "Akuma No Uta" came out in 2005, but I'm not so much up on new music - curious though. What is he/are they like?
Boris is an interesting group. They alternate between droning amplifier sounds and then violent thrashing amp overdrive, with a Japanese guy shouting WAAAAHHH etc.

If you like Captain Beefheart, then you're probably adventurous enough to give Boris a try.

Quote:
What is to stop the NHL from changing their draft rules to allow Tavares into the 2008 Draft if he absolutely dominates the OHL and Memorial Cup during the 2007-2008 season?
Someone in the other thread pointed out to me that if they didn't change the dates for Ovechkin (who missed the 03 draft by two days), then they won't change them for Tavares. It also occurs to me that the NHL probably likes the fact that Tavares makes the '09 draft stronger, as I understand the '08 draft should be a pretty strong one (Steve Stamkos for example).

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Old
03-21-2007, 11:13 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
You are willing to trade excellent NHL players for the rights to a 16-year-old junior based on his "almost unprecedented prodigious production" at that age. However, you are not willing to "trade a Penguins star for any old junior who put up a lot of goals", notwithstanding that player's unprecedented prodigious production at 19 years old.
There's nothing wrong with using age to assess talent and project future performance of junior age players. In fact, it's a wise thing to do. As far as a predictor of future development, there is no comparison between John Tavares's feat and the 80-plus goal seasons of Ray Sheppard and Ernie Godden, except that they occurred in the same league.

Tavares at 16 is about to enter what for most junior players is the fast track of development. Most elite junior-age players are struggling to adjust to major junior hockey at 16. He's a dominant scorer. If you assume a normal development path -- and there is nothing to indicate it will be worse; in fact, there is every indication it will be better than normal -- then John Tavares will make a big surge forward in his 17 and 18-year-old seasons as most major junior players do.

Of course, when you're dealing with teenagers, there is always the chance his development could stall or slow down, but we haven't seen any indicators to suggest it will.

John Tavares would have been our No. 1 prospect for the NHL draft last year and would be again this year and next year -- for three consecutive years before he's eligible in 2009. This is straight from the mouth of our director of scouting.

Notwithstanding Pat Kane's wondrous talents and gaudy point totals, when you compare his talent and performance at 18 to Tavares at 16, Tavares wins.

Age is a key factor in predicting future development. I don't mean to put too much importance on it because there are other factors, but in my opinion, too many people put too little emphasis on age or dismiss it as a non-factor.

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03-21-2007, 11:37 AM
  #69
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I would trade the entire Penguins roster for Ernie Godden right now, straight up.

Who's with me?

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03-21-2007, 12:02 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Mr BLUEandWHITE View Post
the kid is 16 and scored 72 goals more then Gretzky. The only thing I would worry about is the team that gets him in the NHL draft. Pray that it isn't a divisional rival.

EDIT: If he came to Toronto, and Crosby went to Montreal that would awesome. The TOR-MON rivalry would be pushed to new heights. would be really fun to watch.
Crosby won't come to montreal. He had a quote saying something like "when you get into the nhl, you realize the team you loved isn't the same team anymore".

Of course that was right after the game that Maxim Lapierre pwned him and Aaron Downie told him to stop faking.

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03-21-2007, 02:26 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
The CBA, for one.

The risk of inviting lawsuits to change the draft rules for future "phenoms", for two.
What would be the harm in that though?
If Tavares dominates the OHL/Memorial Cup next year and there is nothing left for him to prove in the CHL why shouldn't he be bumped up to the 2008 draft?
If another phenom comes along after him that puts up similar or better numbers there is a pretty good chance that said phenom wouldn't even be facing the same issue with having a late birthday and likely would not have to play 4 years of junior hockey.
And if they did have a late birthday like Tavares what is the harm of letting them into the Draft if there is nothing left for them to prove in Junior hockey?

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03-21-2007, 02:46 PM
  #72
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What would be the harm in that though?
If Tavares dominates the OHL/Memorial Cup next year and there is nothing left for him to prove in the CHL why shouldn't he be bumped up to the 2008 draft?
If another phenom comes along after him that puts up similar or better numbers there is a pretty good chance that said phenom wouldn't even be facing the same issue with having a late birthday and likely would not have to play 4 years of junior hockey.
And if they did have a late birthday like Tavares what is the harm of letting them into the Draft if there is nothing left for them to prove in Junior hockey?
If they didn't do it for Ovechkin they won't do it for Tavares.

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03-21-2007, 03:25 PM
  #73
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What would be the harm in that though?
If Tavares dominates the OHL/Memorial Cup next year and there is nothing left for him to prove in the CHL why shouldn't he be bumped up to the 2008 draft?
If another phenom comes along after him that puts up similar or better numbers there is a pretty good chance that said phenom wouldn't even be facing the same issue with having a late birthday and likely would not have to play 4 years of junior hockey.
And if they did have a late birthday like Tavares what is the harm of letting them into the Draft if there is nothing left for them to prove in Junior hockey?
If the draft rules are changed for Tavares, the future harm would not be in having to change the rules again for another phenom who puts up similar or better numbers. It would be in inviting lawsuits from countless players/parents who think they are as good.

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03-21-2007, 03:31 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by ISS View Post
There's nothing wrong with using age to assess talent and project future performance of junior age players. In fact, it's a wise thing to do. As far as a predictor of future development, there is no comparison between John Tavares's feat and the 80-plus goal seasons of Ray Sheppard and Ernie Godden, except that they occurred in the same league.
Tavares at 16 is about to enter what for most junior players is the fast track of development. Most elite junior-age players are struggling to adjust to major junior hockey at 16. He's a dominant scorer. If you assume a normal development path -- and there is nothing to indicate it will be worse; in fact, there is every indication it will be better than normal -- then John Tavares will make a big surge forward in his 17 and 18-year-old seasons as most major junior players do.

Of course, when you're dealing with teenagers, there is always the chance his development could stall or slow down, but we haven't seen any indicators to suggest it will.

John Tavares would have been our No. 1 prospect for the NHL draft last year and would be again this year and next year -- for three consecutive years before he's eligible in 2009. This is straight from the mouth of our director of scouting.

Notwithstanding Pat Kane's wondrous talents and gaudy point totals, when you compare his talent and performance at 18 to Tavares at 16, Tavares wins.

Age is a key factor in predicting future development. I don't mean to put too much importance on it because there are other factors, but in my opinion, too many people put too little emphasis on age or dismiss it as a non-factor.
Elaborate for me a little on why you feel there is "no comparison" between Tavares' 72 goals at 16 years old and Godden's 87 goals at 19 years old. For as I said in a previous post, both achievements are equally as rare, in fact singly unique, in the history of the OHL.

And wouldn't you agree with me, then, that if there is indeed "no comparison" from a prospect evaluation standpoint, then implicit in that assertion is the belief that Tavares at 19 years old will have much better production than Godden?

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03-21-2007, 04:17 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Juan View Post
Elaborate for me a little on why you feel there is "no comparison" between Tavares' 72 goals at 16 years old and Godden's 87 goals at 19 years old. For as I said in a previous post, both achievements are equally as rare, in fact singly unique, in the history of the OHL.

And wouldn't you agree with me, then, that if there is indeed "no comparison" from a prospect evaluation standpoint, then implicit in that assertion is the belief that Tavares at 19 years old will have much better production than Godden?
Not necessarily. Look at Mike Bossy's production in the Q. Starting at age 16, his goal totals went 70, 84, 79, and 75. He didn't ever surpass 87 goals, yet judging by his NHL totals, he certainly didn't stagnate or reach his peak early.

Also, regarding the 19 year old production theory, did you ever take into account that maybe Godden's 87 goal record has stood for so long in part because most phenoms join the NHL at 18 and don't have an opportunity to spend an extra year or two in junior? No 16 year old prodigy is turning pro no matter how good he is, so Tavares' numbers are comparable with the best in his age group without exception, while Godden's aren't.

Next time, you might want to save the Latin until you've actually proven something. Otherwise it just looks ostentatious.

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