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The Draft this Summer

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Old
03-23-2007, 06:03 PM
  #1
theoil
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The Draft this Summer

I know there have been many of these but there is nothing else worth getting excited about at the moment other than the faint hope that Calgary doesn't make it so thought I would post this for what it is worth.

Lowetide has the top ten prospects from Redline, McKeen's and ISS listed on his site with his usual entertaining commentary. I did something a little different. In order to try and even out the old 'saw him good' perspective that every scout carries with him I put them all into one list and assigned 10 points for a first place finish, 9 for second and so on down to 1 point for a 10th place showing. There were 13 different names for the top 10 between the three publications. I then just added the totals to see if we could get a broader view by incorporating the 3 opinions into one chart. I think you will agree there are some interesting high impact/high risk guys on this list judging from the discrepancies in position and there are some guys who look like money in the bag.


Redline McKeen's ISS Total

Pat Kane 10 10 9 - 29
Jakub Voracek 9 4 6 - 19
Kyle Turris 8 9 8 - 25
Larl Alzner 7 7 5 - 19
J. van Riemsdyk 6 5 7 - 18
Logan Couture 5 6 4 - 15
Sam Gagner 4 2 3 - 9
Angelo Esposito 3 0 0 - 3
Alexei Cherepanov 2 8 10 - 20
Mark Katic 1 0 0 - 1
Keaton Elerby 0 1 2 - 3
Brandon Sutter 0 3 0 - 3
Maxim Mayorov 0 0 1 - 1


As you can see (if my excel sheet copied properly for a change) while Kane is the consensus top pick and Turris is number 2 it is not really clear after that with Cherapanov coming 3rd but getting a very low rating by Redline while Voracek,van Riemsdyk, and Alzner are right there in total and rated just about the same by all three publications. Couture (who has been injured) seems to round out the top echelon before there is a dropoff and Gagner gets some nods. Then it is pretty much over since the other 5 on the list are just also rans in a top ten listing.

I haven't seen enough of any of these guys to have an opinion but this at least puts the opinions all in one place so that we can see how much even the pros disagree.

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03-23-2007, 06:19 PM
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Nice work. I do the same thing myself pretty much every year. Were I a GM that went the mostly scoutless route this is pretty much what I would do to sort the wheat from the chaff.

EDIT to add: Turris and Alzner are the two I like best. I would be fine with Kane but would avoid Cherepanov like the plague (though, if the Isles pick is at 17 and Cherepanov has dropped like a stone I would have to make the pick).

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03-23-2007, 09:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil View Post
Nice work. I do the same thing myself pretty much every year. Were I a GM that went the mostly scoutless route this is pretty much what I would do to sort the wheat from the chaff.

EDIT to add: Turris and Alzner are the two I like best. I would be fine with Kane but would avoid Cherepanov like the plague (though, if the Isles pick is at 17 and Cherepanov has dropped like a stone I would have to make the pick).
Yeah, with 3 1st round picks I am fine taking a long shot. But not with the first one. We really need to get the guy that will lead this team in 3-4 years if he is anywhere on this list.

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03-23-2007, 09:49 PM
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Redline McKeen's ISS Total

Pat Kane 10 10 9 - 29
Kyle Turris 8 9 8 - 25
Alexei Cherepanov 2 8 10 - 20
Jakub Voracek 9 4 6 - 19
Larl Alzner 7 7 5 - 19
J. van Riemsdyk 6 5 7 - 18
Logan Couture 5 6 4 - 15
Sam Gagner 4 2 3 - 9
Angelo Esposito 3 0 0 - 3
Keaton Elerby 0 1 2 - 3
Brandon Sutter 0 3 0 - 3
Maxim Mayorov 0 0 1 - 1
Mark Katic 1 0 0 - 1

just listing them in total order for easier reading

i think this is a cool idea, especially in a year when it seems nobody really knows what to expect.... i honestly wouldnt be mad if the oilers did something similar to this to try and take the "safest" player

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03-23-2007, 09:52 PM
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Well, I know thus far he hasn't got any love in this thread, but I'm still a Cherepanov guy. I think he's the best talent in the draft, he's shown the work ethic, and he's shown that he can carry a team(this year's World Jr's). I think he is a more determined verson of Alexander Mogilny, and if we got him with the 3rd pick I would be ESTATIC!!!

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03-23-2007, 09:54 PM
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BTW guys, who's this LARL Alzner kid??? Sounds like he could really fly under the radar


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Old
03-23-2007, 09:54 PM
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turris for me. this kid is slick, good canadian boy with good size and durability, while he doesn't play a physical game, he has shown me he can handle the rough stuff.

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03-24-2007, 06:16 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson Skalbania View Post
turris for me. this kid is slick, good canadian boy with good size and durability, while he doesn't play a physical game, he has shown me he can handle the rough stuff.
If we get any of the following players with our first pick, i will be happy:

1. Kane
2. Turris
3. Cherepanov
4. JVR
5. Alzner
6. Voracek
7. Couture
8. Ellerby

As long as we finish with a 8th overall or higher pick, we should get a good future player.

Depending on where the Isles and Ducks finish, it may not be a bad idea to package their 1st's, with other picks if needed, to move up to grab another player from that top 8 group.

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03-24-2007, 06:33 AM
  #9
Yanner39
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I have a question concerning Turris. How can he be properly evaluated when he's playing a level below the WHL or CHL? I assme the the BCHL is below the Western Hockey league? Wouldn't there be less competition? If Turris is that good, why isn't he playing against 18 or 19 year old in the WHL?

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03-24-2007, 07:00 AM
  #10
Dr_Gonz0
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yanner39 View Post
I have a question concerning Turris. How can he be properly evaluated when he's playing a level below the WHL or CHL? I assme the the BCHL is below the Western Hockey league? Wouldn't there be less competition? If Turris is that good, why isn't he playing against 18 or 19 year old in the WHL?
He bypassed major junior to remain NCAA eligible.

As for evaluating him against lesser competition. He simply dominates this league. 2nd in regular season scoring(the league leader was 21 years old) and leading in the playoffs. Another good young former BCHL'er to compare him to is Travis Zajac.

Here are their respective draft year stats for the regular season.

Zajac - GP 59 G 43 A 69 P 112 PM 110
Turris - GP 53 G 66 A 55 P 121 PM 45

Here are their respective draft year stats for the post season.

Zajac - GP 14 G 10 A 13 P 23 PM 10
Turris - GP 12 G 11 A 14 P 25 PM 14

Another thing to keep in mind is that Travis Zajac had Kris Chucko(CAL 1st rd pick) as a line mate while playing for the Silverbacks of the BCHL.

Though Zajac possesses a larger frame, Turris has a better skill set and higher potential and is going to an excellent hockey program next year at the University of Wisconsin. If Zajac is drafted 20th overall in 2004, then Turris will go top 10 without a doubt.

Edit: Just an update on what Zajac is doing now with NJD in his rookie season. He played 2 seasons with North Dakota after being drafted, and played 2 games for Albany last year after his sophmore college season had ended. He made the Devils out of camp this year, and skipped the minors.

GP 72 G 16 A 21 P 37 +2 PM 16

I am not sure if that clarifies anything for you about Turris's potential, but hopefully it adds a little insight.


Last edited by Dr_Gonz0: 03-24-2007 at 07:28 AM.
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03-24-2007, 07:53 AM
  #11
Yanner39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0 View Post
He bypassed major junior to remain NCAA eligible.

As for evaluating him against lesser competition. He simply dominates this league. 2nd in regular season scoring(the league leader was 21 years old) and leading in the playoffs. Another good young former BCHL'er to compare him to is Travis Zajac.

Here are their respective draft year stats for the regular season.

Zajac - GP 59 G 43 A 69 P 112 PM 110
Turris - GP 53 G 66 A 55 P 121 PM 45

Here are their respective draft year stats for the post season.

Zajac - GP 14 G 10 A 13 P 23 PM 10
Turris - GP 12 G 11 A 14 P 25 PM 14

Another thing to keep in mind is that Travis Zajac had Kris Chucko(CAL 1st rd pick) as a line mate while playing for the Silverbacks of the BCHL.

Though Zajac possesses a larger frame, Turris has a better skill set and higher potential and is going to an excellent hockey program next year at the University of Wisconsin. If Zajac is drafted 20th overall in 2004, then Turris will go top 10 without a doubt.

Edit: Just an update on what Zajac is doing now with NJD in his rookie season. He played 2 seasons with North Dakota after being drafted, and played 2 games for Albany last year after his sophmore college season had ended. He made the Devils out of camp this year, and skipped the minors.

GP 72 G 16 A 21 P 37 +2 PM 16

I am not sure if that clarifies anything for you about Turris's potential, but hopefully it adds a little insight.
Thanks Dr. Yes, I forgot about the whole NCCA vs CHL issue.

Alot of posters were pretty high on Turris so I reaaly never doubted if he was good or not.

So if the Oilers drafted him, he probably won't be available to the Oilers for 3 or 4 years I guess.

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03-24-2007, 08:01 AM
  #12
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Originally Posted by Yanner39 View Post
Thanks Dr. Yes, I forgot about the whole NCCA vs CHL issue.

Alot of posters were pretty high on Turris so I reaaly never doubted if he was good or not.

So if the Oilers drafted him, he probably won't be available to the Oilers for 3 or 4 years I guess.
My guess is that they would let him have a couple of seasons with the Badgers, then assess whether he is ready to go pro or return for his junior year. Similar to what Cogliano and Chorney's situations are right now.

His greatest obsticle would be lack of size and strength. He would need time to grow and fill out.


Last edited by Dr_Gonz0: 03-24-2007 at 08:13 AM.
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03-25-2007, 08:00 PM
  #13
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
Redline McKeen's ISS Total

Pat Kane 10 10 9 - 29
Kyle Turris 8 9 8 - 25
Alexei Cherepanov 2 8 10 - 20
Jakub Voracek 9 4 6 - 19
Larl Alzner 7 7 5 - 19
J. van Riemsdyk 6 5 7 - 18
Logan Couture 5 6 4 - 15
Sam Gagner 4 2 3 - 9
Angelo Esposito 3 0 0 - 3
Keaton Elerby 0 1 2 - 3
Brandon Sutter 0 3 0 - 3
Maxim Mayorov 0 0 1 - 1
Mark Katic 1 0 0 - 1

just listing them in total order for easier reading

i think this is a cool idea, especially in a year when it seems nobody really knows what to expect.... i honestly wouldnt be mad if the oilers did something similar to this to try and take the "safest" player
We just moved into 6th place courtesy of Columbus beating St. Louis and I still think we have a shot at 4th or 5th. Hard to figure out Washington. They go from dominant to doormats with little indication of why. That said I think we should easily hold on to 6th putting us in positon to grab one of Voracek, Alzner, Couture or van Riemsdyk.

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03-25-2007, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0 View Post
If we get any of the following players with our first pick, i will be happy:

1. Kane
2. Turris
3. Cherepanov
4. JVR
5. Alzner
6. Voracek
7. Couture
8. Ellerby

As long as we finish with a 8th overall or higher pick, we should get a good future player.

Depending on where the Isles and Ducks finish, it may not be a bad idea to package their 1st's, with other picks if needed, to move up to grab another player from that top 8 group.
I hope Lowe NEVER trades down a draft position again. Up yes, down no.

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03-25-2007, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by theoil View Post
We just moved into 6th place courtesy of Columbus beating St. Louis and I still think we have a shot at 4th or 5th. Hard to figure out Washington. They go from dominant to doormats with little indication of why. That said I think we should easily hold on to 6th putting us in positon to grab one of Voracek, Alzner, Couture or van Riemsdyk.
We are still in 7th place as we won the series with Columbus, so I hope they win another game or get another point and we go winless for the rest of the season.

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03-25-2007, 08:26 PM
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We are still in 7th place as we won the series with Columbus, so I hope they win another game or get another point and we go winless for the rest of the season.
Tie Breaking Procedure

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:
1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

As per TSN, Sunday, March 25, 2007 8:44 PM.:

Western Team GP W L OT PTS GF GA Home Away Conf. Last Ten Streak
1. Nashville * 76 48 21 7 103 255 197 26-6-4 22-15-3 41-19-6 4-3-3 1W
2. Anaheim * 75 44 19 12 100 240 194 26-6-8 18-13-4 38-17-10 7-2-1 1W
3. Minnesota * 76 45 24 7 97 221 183 26-6-4 19-18-3 39-20-7 9-1-0 9W
4. Detroit 75 45 19 11 101 232 188 26-4-7 19-15-4 39-16-10 4-3-3 4L
5. Vancouver 74 45 23 6 96 199 180 25-9-3 20-14-3 37-22-5 8-1-1 4W
6. Dallas 75 45 24 6 96 204 183 25-10-2 20-14-4 41-20-4 7-2-1 1W
7. San Jose 76 46 26 4 96 235 185 21-12-3 25-14-1 38-24-4 7-1-2 1L
8. Calgary 75 40 25 10 90 239 205 30-7-2 10-18-8 36-22-7 5-4-1 3W
9. Colorado 74 38 29 7 83 246 229 20-14-3 18-15-4 31-26-7 8-0-2 1L
10. St. Louis 75 31 32 12 74 195 232 17-18-3 14-14-9 26-29-10 3-5-2 1L
11. Columbus 75 31 37 7 69 188 228 17-16-4 14-21-3 27-31-7 6-4-0 3W
12. Edmonton 76 31 38 7 69 186 229 19-19-3 12-19-4 27-35-4 1-8-1 1L
13. Los Angeles 76 26 36 14 66 215 261 15-15-9 11-21-5 22-33-11 4-2-4 1L
14. Phoenix 75 29 41 5 63 201 259 16-18-3 13-23-2 23-37-5 2-6-2 1L
15. Chicago 75 27 39 9 63 185 239 14-19-4 13-20-5 24-34-7 4-6-0 5L

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03-25-2007, 08:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0 View Post
Tie Breaking Procedure

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:
1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

As per TSN, Sunday, March 25, 2007 8:44 PM.:

Western Team GP W L OT PTS GF GA Home Away Conf. Last Ten Streak
1. Nashville * 76 48 21 7 103 255 197 26-6-4 22-15-3 41-19-6 4-3-3 1W
2. Anaheim * 75 44 19 12 100 240 194 26-6-8 18-13-4 38-17-10 7-2-1 1W
3. Minnesota * 76 45 24 7 97 221 183 26-6-4 19-18-3 39-20-7 9-1-0 9W
4. Detroit 75 45 19 11 101 232 188 26-4-7 19-15-4 39-16-10 4-3-3 4L
5. Vancouver 74 45 23 6 96 199 180 25-9-3 20-14-3 37-22-5 8-1-1 4W
6. Dallas 75 45 24 6 96 204 183 25-10-2 20-14-4 41-20-4 7-2-1 1W
7. San Jose 76 46 26 4 96 235 185 21-12-3 25-14-1 38-24-4 7-1-2 1L
8. Calgary 75 40 25 10 90 239 205 30-7-2 10-18-8 36-22-7 5-4-1 3W
9. Colorado 74 38 29 7 83 246 229 20-14-3 18-15-4 31-26-7 8-0-2 1L
10. St. Louis 75 31 32 12 74 195 232 17-18-3 14-14-9 26-29-10 3-5-2 1L
11. Columbus 75 31 37 7 69 188 228 17-16-4 14-21-3 27-31-7 6-4-0 3W
12. Edmonton 76 31 38 7 69 186 229 19-19-3 12-19-4 27-35-4 1-8-1 1L
13. Los Angeles 76 26 36 14 66 215 261 15-15-9 11-21-5 22-33-11 4-2-4 1L
14. Phoenix 75 29 41 5 63 201 259 16-18-3 13-23-2 23-37-5 2-6-2 1L
15. Chicago 75 27 39 9 63 185 239 14-19-4 13-20-5 24-34-7 4-6-0 5L
nice work gonz....chi is the team that really pisses me off..freakin perennial losers...all the high draft choices they have had the last number of year s and they still suck a$$.. i thinl CLB will be clear of us in a couple of games, was should get by us and with any luck LA will squeak out a few. to nip us at teh end... i see us with a max of 3 pts on this upcoming trip...

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03-25-2007, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0 View Post
Tie Breaking Procedure

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:
1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

As per TSN, Sunday, March 25, 2007 8:44 PM.:

Western Team GP W L OT PTS GF GA Home Away Conf. Last Ten Streak
1. Nashville * 76 48 21 7 103 255 197 26-6-4 22-15-3 41-19-6 4-3-3 1W
2. Anaheim * 75 44 19 12 100 240 194 26-6-8 18-13-4 38-17-10 7-2-1 1W
3. Minnesota * 76 45 24 7 97 221 183 26-6-4 19-18-3 39-20-7 9-1-0 9W
4. Detroit 75 45 19 11 101 232 188 26-4-7 19-15-4 39-16-10 4-3-3 4L
5. Vancouver 74 45 23 6 96 199 180 25-9-3 20-14-3 37-22-5 8-1-1 4W
6. Dallas 75 45 24 6 96 204 183 25-10-2 20-14-4 41-20-4 7-2-1 1W
7. San Jose 76 46 26 4 96 235 185 21-12-3 25-14-1 38-24-4 7-1-2 1L
8. Calgary 75 40 25 10 90 239 205 30-7-2 10-18-8 36-22-7 5-4-1 3W
9. Colorado 74 38 29 7 83 246 229 20-14-3 18-15-4 31-26-7 8-0-2 1L
10. St. Louis 75 31 32 12 74 195 232 17-18-3 14-14-9 26-29-10 3-5-2 1L
11. Columbus 75 31 37 7 69 188 228 17-16-4 14-21-3 27-31-7 6-4-0 3W
12. Edmonton 76 31 38 7 69 186 229 19-19-3 12-19-4 27-35-4 1-8-1 1L
13. Los Angeles 76 26 36 14 66 215 261 15-15-9 11-21-5 22-33-11 4-2-4 1L
14. Phoenix 75 29 41 5 63 201 259 16-18-3 13-23-2 23-37-5 2-6-2 1L
15. Chicago 75 27 39 9 63 185 239 14-19-4 13-20-5 24-34-7 4-6-0 5L
How do you determine the 1st tiebreaker as all teams will have played 82 games? I guess you could have cancelled games not made up.

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03-25-2007, 09:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Tyrolean View Post
How do you determine the 1st tiebreaker as all teams will have played 82 games? I guess you could have cancelled games not made up.
The point being that we are not at 82 games. Edmonton has the 6th pick as of today. That's all.

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03-25-2007, 10:40 PM
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I do believe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0 View Post
He bypassed major junior to remain NCAA eligible.

As for evaluating him against lesser competition. He simply dominates this league. 2nd in regular season scoring(the league leader was 21 years old) and leading in the playoffs. Another good young former BCHL'er to compare him to is Travis Zajac.

Here are their respective draft year stats for the regular season.

Zajac - GP 59 G 43 A 69 P 112 PM 110
Turris - GP 53 G 66 A 55 P 121 PM 45

Here are their respective draft year stats for the post season.

Zajac - GP 14 G 10 A 13 P 23 PM 10
Turris - GP 12 G 11 A 14 P 25 PM 14

Another thing to keep in mind is that Travis Zajac had Kris Chucko(CAL 1st rd pick) as a line mate while playing for the Silverbacks of the BCHL.

Though Zajac possesses a larger frame, Turris has a better skill set and higher potential and is going to an excellent hockey program next year at the University of Wisconsin. If Zajac is drafted 20th overall in 2004, then Turris will go top 10 without a doubt.

Edit: Just an update on what Zajac is doing now with NJD in his rookie season. He played 2 seasons with North Dakota after being drafted, and played 2 games for Albany last year after his sophmore college season had ended. He made the Devils out of camp this year, and skipped the minors.

GP 72 G 16 A 21 P 37 +2 PM 16

I am not sure if that clarifies anything for you about Turris's potential, but hopefully it adds a little insight.

I believe that Zajac was a year older and was drafted his 2nd time around, whereas Turris is one of the younger players elligible for this draft. The first part of this reply i am pretty confident in, the 2nd...not so much...

Anyway, if Turris is a year younger then what he is doing should be seen as that much more impressive, especially in light of his playoff numbers from the last two seasons.

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03-25-2007, 10:51 PM
  #21
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Quote:
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We just moved into 6th place courtesy of Columbus beating St. Louis and I still think we have a shot at 4th or 5th. Hard to figure out Washington. They go from dominant to doormats with little indication of why. That said I think we should easily hold on to 6th putting us in positon to grab one of Voracek, Alzner, Couture or van Riemsdyk.
Washington was always a bad team, they just had a streak going on early in the year.

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03-25-2007, 10:59 PM
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I really want Sutter with one of the other picks... Then again I might have a skewed view because I love the Rebels, but he seems as much of a clone of the 5 brothers (uncles and father) than genetic cloning itself could have done.

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03-25-2007, 11:14 PM
  #23
theoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrel_master View Post
Washington was always a bad team, they just had a streak going on early in the year.

Yeah, I was referring to their last few gmes where they blew out a couple of teams and then went back to rolling over. I think they have another few wins in them.

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Old
03-25-2007, 11:45 PM
  #24
jumptheshark
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oilers need to draft better d-fence

on the whole the guys they have now--for the most part are 4-6 number type guys

Only Smid has the potential to be a number 1

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Old
03-26-2007, 12:36 AM
  #25
barrel_master
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Some nice stuff from the rangers board...

Has links to some of the top end players plus some vids on them.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=354356

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