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Thoughts For Next Year Via Free Agency..

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Old
03-25-2007, 11:14 AM
  #1
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Thoughts For Next Year Via Free Agency..

Correct me if I'm wrong, But next year we have about 29 Million committed to salaries...right?

Based on this years salary cap, we have about 15 million to deal with, before we hit the 44 million cap. I know that Ownership won't max it out next year. Which I understand. How high do some of you believe they will go though?

Let's say they will go to maybe 38 Million...That leaves us about 9 million...

With Jackman going to arbitration...Maybe getting 3 million or so...That leaves us with about 6 million on two forwards...(IF ownership goes to 38 or 39 Million).

Drury is my first choice, who makes 3 Million a year..we offer about 4 Million a year to get him over here....

If he doesn't bite...I would like to see the Blues go after Tyler Arnason who is a UFA this summer. He is making 900K..I think we can get him for about 2 Million a year or less...I know he is -7...but he puts up about 50 points a year and his price can be reasonable.

Than if we have an extra 2 Million (After Arnason or Drury), I would like to see Owen Nolan on a 2 year contract...until Oshie, Soderberg, Bergulnd and others are ready in a few years. Owen with Weight can bring the young kids up under there wing.

I would like Guerin back, but I have a feeling he will not pull a Doug Weight and come back to the Blues.

Thoughts...

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03-25-2007, 11:40 AM
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Check my site - I've got everyone's contracts listed as of March 6. This bigger issue for '07-08 will be keeping the amount we spend in real dollars in check.

I think Jackman would get about $2.5 million (he's making $1,468,000 this year) - but if you sign him to a 3 or 4-year deal, you can backload it to help with real dollars this season. There's absolutely no way we're going to get Drury to answer the phone if all we're offering is $4 million. It'll take $6-6.5 million to get him interested. I have no interest in Owen Nolan (who will probably stay in Phoenix), and I don't think Arnason does much for us. I also don't think Guerin comes back unless we're willing to overpay and give him a multi-year contract ... neither of which
I'd do.

Honestly, this team's main need is a #1 center for 2007-08. Much of the other stuff we can fill from within, but we flat out cannot create a #1 center with who we've got that's NHL-ready at the moment.

I'll switch computers and run some numbers shortly and elaborate some more.

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03-25-2007, 11:48 AM
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Don't see the Blues spending to the cap max. It's not financially responsible at this point.

The rebuilding will continue as the Blues wait for the kids. I think Plan A is to look for another one-year reclamation project like Guerin, hopefully a center ice man.

The best thing would be if Soderberg came over and made the team. Not likely.

If Oshie turns pro, he would fill a top-six forward spot. Maybe as a centerman.

The maximum I see the Blues spending in free agency is a 3-year, $9 million commitment. Not sure what that buys - hopefully Scott Hartnell for left wing.

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03-25-2007, 12:24 PM
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Here's what we've got for 2007-08 (all dollars are cap dollars):

Legace - $2,150,000
Schwarz - $1,834,200
Bacashihua - RFA, qualifying offer is $643,720
Sanford - RFA, qualifying offer is $520,080

Brewer - $4,250,000
McKee - $4,000,000
Backman - $2,300,000
Salvador - $1,400,000
Pola'k - $603,333
Jackman - RFA, qualifying offer is $1,482,000 but is arbitration-eligible
Woywitka - RFA, qualifying offer is $689,700
Walker - RFA, qualifying offer is $577,500

Weight - $3,500,000 (counts no matter what, has a NTC)
Rucinsky - $2,375,000 (counts no matter what, has a NTC)
Cajanek - $1,850,000
Boyes - $1,500,000
Mayers - $1,333,333
Drake - $1,100,000 (counts no matter what)
Hinote - $1,000,000
Backes - $887,500
R. Johnson - $800,000
McClement - $675,000
King - $450,000
Stempniak - RFA, qualifying offer is $495,000
Stastny - RFA, qualifying offer is $715,000

If you pencil Soderberg into the '07-08 lineup, his cap number is $763,333.

Right now, we've committed $29,7 million to 16 guys for '07-08, not counting a backup goalie. If you add Schwarz, we're at $31.56 million; if you then add Soderberg, we're at $32.3 million.

Jackman will get about $2.5 million as I said. Stempniak can't go to arbitration but the Blues can give him a little something now (say, to $525K) and then sign him to a long-term contract for '08-09 in the $2.5-3 million range and buy out a couple years of UFA. Woywitka also can't file for arbitration yet, so assume he takes his QO or doesn't get much more than it if he declines.

Goalie: Bacashihua may be the backup at this rate (he gets about what his QO will be), I think we leave Schwarz at Peoria to get more work and Sanford ends up as the odd man out.

Defense: Counting Jackman and Woywitka, we have 7 defensemen - and that's not counting Erik Johnson. If EJ signs, we'll move a defenseman - Pola'k can go back to Peoria for a year, but Walker will never clear if we try to send him down. Johnson will probably count $3.2 million ($850K in salary, $850K in Schedule A bonuses, $1.5M in Schedule B bonuses).

Forward ... Stastny will have to play his way on, I doubt he does. King could still go back to Peoria. If Drake retires, it puts us at 10 forwards - none of which are a #1 center, so we'll be going after one. Oshie could sign and might count $1.7M ($850K in salary, $850K in bonuses). Soderberg might get a legit shot here as well.

Total at this point: about $33.5 million. Even adding Oshie and Johnson, we're at $38.3 million but $3.2M of that is bonus money. We will probably end up around $43 million, and I expect we'll see a couple of trades at the draft that may free up some extra space.

As a cautionary note: Detroit only has about $22M committed to 10 guys. They need a #1 goalie (unless they're going to go with Osgood/Howard), and a pair of defensemen ... so they'll be shopping for forwards.

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Old
03-25-2007, 12:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Walker will never clear if we try to send him down.

Really?

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03-25-2007, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by dany View Post
Really?
Walker is an adequate bottom-pairing defenseman who brings toughness and would come cheap. Those three reasons combined would virtually guarantee he'd never clear if we tried to send him down.

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Old
03-25-2007, 01:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Here's what we've got for 2007-08 (all dollars are cap dollars):

Legace - $2,150,000
Schwarz - $1,834,200
Bacashihua - RFA, qualifying offer is $643,720
Sanford - RFA, qualifying offer is $520,080

Brewer - $4,250,000
McKee - $4,000,000
Backman - $2,300,000
Salvador - $1,400,000
Pola'k - $603,333
Jackman - RFA, qualifying offer is $1,482,000 but is arbitration-eligible
Woywitka - RFA, qualifying offer is $689,700
Walker - RFA, qualifying offer is $577,500

Weight - $3,500,000 (counts no matter what, has a NTC)
Rucinsky - $2,375,000 (counts no matter what, has a NTC)
Cajanek - $1,850,000
Boyes - $1,500,000
Mayers - $1,333,333
Drake - $1,100,000 (counts no matter what)
Hinote - $1,000,000
Backes - $887,500
R. Johnson - $800,000
McClement - $675,000
King - $450,000
Stempniak - RFA, qualifying offer is $495,000
Stastny - RFA, qualifying offer is $715,000

If you pencil Soderberg into the '07-08 lineup, his cap number is $763,333.

Right now, we've committed $29,7 million to 16 guys for '07-08, not counting a backup goalie. If you add Schwarz, we're at $31.56 million; if you then add Soderberg, we're at $32.3 million.

Jackman will get about $2.5 million as I said. Stempniak can't go to arbitration but the Blues can give him a little something now (say, to $525K) and then sign him to a long-term contract for '08-09 in the $2.5-3 million range and buy out a couple years of UFA. Woywitka also can't file for arbitration yet, so assume he takes his QO or doesn't get much more than it if he declines.

Goalie: Bacashihua may be the backup at this rate (he gets about what his QO will be), I think we leave Schwarz at Peoria to get more work and Sanford ends up as the odd man out.

Defense: Counting Jackman and Woywitka, we have 7 defensemen - and that's not counting Erik Johnson. If EJ signs, we'll move a defenseman - Pola'k can go back to Peoria for a year, but Walker will never clear if we try to send him down. Johnson will probably count $3.2 million ($850K in salary, $850K in Schedule A bonuses, $1.5M in Schedule B bonuses).

Forward ... Stastny will have to play his way on, I doubt he does. King could still go back to Peoria. If Drake retires, it puts us at 10 forwards - none of which are a #1 center, so we'll be going after one. Oshie could sign and might count $1.7M ($850K in salary, $850K in bonuses). Soderberg might get a legit shot here as well.

Total at this point: about $33.5 million. Even adding Oshie and Johnson, we're at $38.3 million but $3.2M of that is bonus money. We will probably end up around $43 million, and I expect we'll see a couple of trades at the draft that may free up some extra space.

As a cautionary note: Detroit only has about $22M committed to 10 guys. They need a #1 goalie (unless they're going to go with Osgood/Howard), and a pair of defensemen ... so they'll be shopping for forwards.
Thanks for the breakdown...

Soderberg penciled in for next year?? Really? I figured with that devastating eye injury and not being able to finish the season...that he would be at least another year away. Interesting....

I know Oshie might be there...but even he is not a sure bet at Center next year.

I guess your right, It will take more than 4 Million a year to get Drury...I guess my 4 Mill a year is wishful thinking. I would go up to 5.5 or 6...I think he is worth it.

As for Nolen...If he is only making 1.2 this year...Why wouldn't you want him Irish Blues??

I understand hating him for all those times we faced him, like on the Sharks, but I wouldn't hold that against him...He will put up about 20 goals this year, including about 25 asts...including the experience and intagiables he brings to the table.

I'm not gung ho over Aranson...I just think if he had the right guys on his line...he could be much better than he is now at his 50+ points he will most likely finish at.
If we can get him for less than 2 mill a year...Especially if we don't land Drury or Briere. Aranson could be your 3rd center, behind Jay and Doug. At least for a couple years, until the young guys are ready.

Just a thought.

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Old
03-25-2007, 01:57 PM
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Quote:
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Walker is an adequate bottom-pairing defenseman who brings toughness and would come cheap. Those three reasons combined would virtually guarantee he'd never clear if we tried to send him down.

C'est la vie. There's no room for him in St. Louis. Plus, my guess is he would clear waivers. He's in the Jamie Rivers category to me.

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03-25-2007, 02:07 PM
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1. I said "if" on Soderberg. We'll know more about what to expect out of him in '07-08 this summer.
2. Oshie will be a winger in the NHL ... probably a RW. That said, I think he could absolutely fill a spot on a scoring line and put up 20-25 goals as a rookie.
3. Nolan is the 67th member of the, "I like Phoenix, I like Gretzky as a head coach, I want to end my career here" club. He won't leave unless the Coyotes throw him out, and Gretzky won't do that. But let's say they did: what does Nolan bring that we can't provide from within? He's 35 and clearly slowing down; aside from maybe leadership, I see nothing in him that helps this team for '07-08. It has nothing to do with images of past playoffs, and everything to do with, "how does he help us?"
4. IIRC Arnason is a better winger than he is a center.
5. Walker vs. Rivers: Rivers is most definitely a fringe NHL'er who teams will want if they're short a couple guys on defense, while Walker is a legitimate NHL'er and can fill a role on a lot of teams. Case in point: the only teams interested in Rivers at the deadline were those who were going to turn around and send him to the minors to help their AHL teams. Walker might be a healthy scratch some nights, but there's easily 15 teams who would take him as a 6/7 guy right now.

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03-25-2007, 02:43 PM
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1. I said "if" on Soderberg. We'll know more about what to expect out of him in '07-08 this summer.
\
5. Walker vs. Rivers: Rivers is most definitely a fringe NHL'er who teams will want if they're short a couple guys on defense, while Walker is a legitimate NHL'er and can fill a role on a lot of teams. Case in point: the only teams interested in Rivers at the deadline were those who were going to turn around and send him to the minors to help their AHL teams. Walker might be a healthy scratch some nights, but there's easily 15 teams who would take him as a 6/7 guy right now.
We agree to disagree on Walker. He's too slow, error prone and gets hurt a lot. I see him in Peoria next year.

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03-25-2007, 02:50 PM
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We agree to disagree on Walker. He's too slow, error prone and gets hurt a lot. I see him in Peoria next year.
I agree with you on Walkers skill level, or lack thereof. I don't think he would clear the wire to go to Peoria, however. But then again, I also said that there is no way that 'Cash would clear.

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Old
03-25-2007, 03:17 PM
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Does Dainus Zubrus interest anybody. Also what about slava kozlov.

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03-25-2007, 05:28 PM
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Heres a player that could fill the need at center for the Blues, Steven Weiss
of Florida. I dont know what his contract status is but, maybe we swing a deal
with the panthers for him.

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03-25-2007, 06:04 PM
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The Panthers aren't trading Weiss, so forget about that idea. Kozlov is pushing 35 I think and will stay with Atlanta given the chance. Zubrus doesn't excite me.

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03-25-2007, 07:09 PM
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Did everybody forget about Keith Tkachuk coming back at about 3.5 mill for 2years?
A possible stop gap solution is Mike Comrie at center for 1 year for 2 mill a year
opinions?

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03-25-2007, 07:43 PM
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I think we're not mentioning KT because we all know he is all ready considering coming back.

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03-25-2007, 08:09 PM
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We're not getting Comrie for $2 million.

I also wouldn't give Tkachuk 2 years. If he wants to come back, give him a 1-year contract with incentives; tying him up for 2 years potentially handcuffs this team for '08-09 should guys show they're ready and/or Tkachuk really start to decline.

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03-25-2007, 08:18 PM
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Time to turn the page on the Keith Tkachuk era. No thanks.

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03-25-2007, 09:40 PM
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I didnt know tkachuk had his own era.

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03-25-2007, 11:34 PM
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When Brian Sutter was the coach of the Blackhawks, he and Arnason almost came to blows at some bar because Sutter thinks Arnason is a lazy, unmotivated punk.
Sutter may be a jerk, but Arnason is pathetic.

Arnason is a whiner with good skill and a bad attitude.

Walker is nothing like Rivers. Some team will claim Walker off waivers.

Lombardi? We already have a logjam at mediocre centerman.

Drury. At least $6.5 maybe $7m. He will get huge offers.

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03-26-2007, 01:36 AM
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http://http://spectorshockey.net/

Spector talks about Ryan Smith as a possibility. A long shot for sure but a man can dream can't he.

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03-26-2007, 08:40 AM
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When Brian Sutter was the coach of the Blackhawks, he and Arnason almost came to blows at some bar because Sutter thinks Arnason is a lazy, unmotivated punk.
Sutter may be a jerk, but Arnason is pathetic.

Arnason is a whiner with good skill and a bad attitude.

Walker is nothing like Rivers. Some team will claim Walker off waivers.

Lombardi? We already have a logjam at mediocre centerman.

Drury. At least $6.5 maybe $7m. He will get huge offers.

Lombardi is much better than "mediocre," dude.

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Old
03-26-2007, 09:14 AM
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Some players of interest:
Eric Belanger
Chris Drury
Daniel Briere
Michal Handzus
Ladislav Nagy/Pavel Datsyuk -Just b/c we need some flashy players
Kyle Calder
Robert Lang
Petr Sykora
Scott Hartnell
Kimmo Timonen
Scott Gomez
Ryan Smyth
Brendan Shanahan
Mike Comrie
Bill Guerin
Radek Dvorak
Keith Tkachuk

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03-26-2007, 09:27 AM
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Some players of interest:
Eric Belanger - meh
Chris Drury - #2 on my list
Daniel Briere - #3 on my list; I think Buffalo will re-sign him, though
Michal Handzus - I'd take him, but does he then become the #1 center?
Ladislav Nagy/Pavel Datsyuk -Just b/c we need some flashy players - no on Nagy; Datsyuk will never give us the time of day
Kyle Calder - not interested
Robert Lang - NO.
Petr Sykora - meh
Scott Hartnell - could fill a winger spot if Oshie doesn't come out
Kimmo Timonen - Nashville will probably re-sign him
Scott Gomez - #1 on my list
Ryan Smyth - will probably price himself out of consideration
Brendan Shanahan - NO; besides, he probably won't give us the time of day this summer either.
Mike Comrie - if we can't get Gomez or Drury/Briere, I'd settle for him.
Bill Guerin - may want a multi-year contract; if so, no thanks
Radek Dvorak - replaceable from within
Keith Tkachuk - only if he's taking a 1-year deal with a low base salary and incentives
Fedotenko of Tampa is also an option on the wing, but someone will overpay for him and give him 3-4 years.

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03-26-2007, 09:46 AM
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No way is Zeus a 1st line center, rather have Dougie holding that role over Zeus. Though, neither is what I would want centering the #1.
However, Comrie / Zeus, plus a Hartnell type player may be enough to have a shot at the playoffs.

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